Postinfection treatment with a protease inhibitor increases survival of mice with a fatal SARS-CoV-2 infection
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99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
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A Benchmark Case for the Grid Survivability Analysis
Among current priorities of the power system analysis is the development of metrics and computational tools for the resilience analysis during catastrophic events. New methods and tools are required for such an analysis and they have to be validated prior application to real systems. However, benchmark problems are not readily available due to the analysis novelty. The current paper presents a case based on the IEEE 14-bus system for this purpose. The grid is simplified to a graph with nodes representing generators, loads, and buses. Power inputs are imported from real-time simulations of the IEEE 14-bus system. Outcomes of all possible combinations of failed elements are presented in terms of probabilities for the grid to survive, partially survive, or fail. Only the power grid's ability to withstand adverse events (survivability) is analyzed. The grid's recoverability, the other part of the resilience analysis, is not considered.
power system↗
Long-term survival and second malignant tumor prediction in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors using Random Survival Forests: a SEER analysis
Abstract Survival and second malignancy prediction models can aid clinical decision making. Most commonly, survival analysis studies are performed using traditional proportional hazards models, which require strong assumptions and can lead to biased estimates if violated. Therefore, this study aims to implement an alternative, machine learning (ML) model for survival analysis: Random Survival Forest (RSF). In this study, RSFs were built using the U.S. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results to (1) predict 30-year survival in pediatric, adolescent, and young adult cancer survivors; and (2) predict risk and site of a second tumor within 30 years of the first tumor diagnosis in these age groups. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult survival has an average Concordance index (C-index) of 92.9%, 94.2%, and 94.4% and average time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) at 30-years since first diagnosis of 90.8%, 93.6%, 96.1% respectively. The final RSF model for pediatric, adolescent, and young adult second malignancy has an average C-index of 86.8%, 85.2%, and 88.6% and average time-dependent AUC at 30-years since first diagnosis of 76.5%, 88.1%, and 99.0% respectively. This study suggests the robustness and potential clinical value of ML models to alleviate physician burden by quickly identifying highest risk individuals.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Evaluation of Howard A. Hanson Dam Juvenile Fish Passage and Survival Study: Downstream Passage and Survival (Acoustic Telemetry) (Task Final Report)
The Downstream Passage and Survival (Acoustic Telemetry) task was one of several tasks for the Evaluation of Howard A. Hanson Dam (HAHD) Juvenile Fish Passage and Survival study. For this task, a juvenile fish passage and survival study was conducted at HAHD from March 10, 2024 through June 27, 2024 for arrays in the HAHD Reservoir and Green River, and through July 9, 2024 for the arrays in the Duwamish River. Fish releases occurred over four times from March through May. Active tag (acoustic telemetry) technology was used to provide biological baseline information for the passage and survival of juvenile Puget Sound (PS) Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). Results will be used by biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decision-makers to inform the engineering design of the new fish passage facility (FPF) at HAHD. However, hatchery sub-yearling PS Chinook salmon of the appropriate size for tag implantation during the study period (> 95 mm in fork length, Geist et al. 2018) were unavailable. Therefore, yearling Coho salmon (O. kisutch) were used as a surrogate species for this acoustic telemetry study.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Comparing Individualized Survival Predictions From Random Survival Forests and Multistate Models in the Presence of Missing Data: A Case Study of Patients With Oropharyngeal Cancer
Background: In recent years, interest in prognostic calculators for predicting patient health outcomes has grown with the popularity of personalized medicine. These calculators, which can inform treatment decisions, employ many different methods, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. Methods: We present a comparison of a multistate model (MSM) and a random survival forest (RSF) through a case study of prognostic predictions for patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. The MSM is highly structured and takes into account some aspects of the clinical context and knowledge about oropharyngeal cancer, while the RSF can be thought of as a black-box non-parametric approach. Key in this comparison are the high rate of missing values within these data and the different approaches used by the MSM and RSF to handle missingness. Results: We compare the accuracy (discrimination and calibration) of survival probabilities predicted by both approaches and use simulation studies to better understand how predictive accuracy is influenced by the approach to (1) handling missing data and (2) modeling structural/disease progression information present in the data. We conclude that both approaches have similar predictive accuracy, with a slight advantage going to the MSM. Conclusions: Although the MSM shows slightly better predictive ability than the RSF, consideration of other differences are key when selecting the best approach for addressing a specific research question. These key differences include the methods’ ability to incorporate domain knowledge, and their ability to handle missing data as well as their interpretability, and ease of implementation. Ultimately, selecting the statistical method that has the most potential to aid in clinical decisions requires thoughtful consideration of the specific goals.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
An Ecological Robustness Oriented Optimal Power Flow for Power Systems’ Survivability
Not provided.
Engineering↗
Cancer survival in the United States 2007–2016: Results from the National Program of Cancer Registries
Background Cancer survival has improved for the most common cancers. However, less improvement and lower survival has been observed in some groups perhaps due to differential access to cancer care including prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment. Methods To further understand contemporary relative cancer survival (one- and five- year), we used survival data from CDC’s National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) for cancers diagnosed during 2007–2016. We examined overall relative cancer survival by sex, race and ethnicity, age, and county-level metropolitan and non-metropolitan status. Relative cancer survival by metropolitan and non-metropolitan status was further examined by sex, race and ethnicity, age, and cancer type. Results Among persons with cancer diagnosed during 2007–2016 the overall one-year and five-year relative survival was 80.6% and 67.4%, respectively. One-year relative survival for persons living in metropolitan counties was 81.1% and 77.8% among persons living in non-metropolitan counties. We found that persons who lived in non-metropolitan counties had lower survival than those who lived in metropolitan counties, and this difference persisted across sex, race and ethnicity, age, and most cancer types. Conclusion Further examination of the differences in cancer survival by cancer type or other characteristics might be helpful for identifying potential interventions, such as programs that target screening and early detection or strategies to improve access to high quality cancer treatment and follow-up care, that could improve long-term outcomes. Impact This analysis provided a high-level overview of contemporary cancer survival in the United States.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Profiling overstory survival trends following varying thinning and burning disturbance regimes in a mixed pine-hardwood forest in the US South
Prescribed burning as a silvicultural tool may be effective for achieving various management objectives, yet some practitioners have concerns about inadvertently increasing overstory tree mortality. Using extensive data from a long-term, ongoing study in northcentral Alabama, USA, that systematically applies a variety of thinning and prescribed burning disturbances on mixed pine-hardwood stands, we assess survival trends for different groups of trees. The primary research question is whether more frequent prescribed burns adversely affects overstory survival versus infrequent or no burns; secondary questions explore whether overstory survival trends differ based on thinning level, species group, or size class. Interest is in broad groups of trees, not individual tree survival or mortality; consequently, survival analysis methods are used, including nonparametric Kaplan-Meier (KM) techniques for examining single grouping factors, and parametric accelerated failure time models for analyzing simultaneous effects of multiple covariates. Leveraging relatively recent methodological advances, the statistical techniques are adjusted for interval censored data. KM survival curves showed that more frequent prescribed fires did not result in differing survival trends. Also, trees in unthinned stands had the lowest 14-year survival compared to thinned stands, oaks had the highest survival compared to pines and the others species group, and the smallest size class of overstory trees had the lowest survival. In conclusion, these results support managing transitional mixed pine-hardwoods using thinning and multiple prescribed fires to restore specific species composition and structure.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Influence of intrinsic and extrinsic attributes on neonate survival in an invasive large mammal
Abstract Understanding factors influencing survival of neonates for wild species is important for successful management, particularly for determining drivers of population dynamics. Wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) are invasive and populations are rapidly increasing in part due to high reproductive capacity. Survival of adults is generally high, however, survival of piglets, and particularly neonates, is largely unknown. We located neonates at the natal nest and quantified survival in relation to individual and maternal biological attributes, and environmental variables. During 2017–2020, we captured 50 neonates from 13 litters and documented 28 mortalities (56%) over six weeks. Survival was positively influenced by pelage coloration, likely as a form of camouflage from predators. Male neonates had higher survival. They were born larger than females, which could be beneficial for thermoregulation and competition for milk. Neonates born to larger sows had lower survival. Sow size was positively correlated with litter size, and this finding may reflect the increased nutritional demands of sustaining large litters, or difficulties in defending more neonates against predators. Neonates born in warmer months had higher survival than those born in cooler months. Neonates are inefficient thermoregulators, thus being born in warmer months could be beneficial for maintaining homeostasis as well as access to more food resources. These are the largest and most complete data for neonate wild pig survival and will inform population models for the development of management strategies to reduce negative impacts of this destructive invasive species on native ecosystems.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Endogeneity of pedestrian survival time and emergency medical service response time: Variations across disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged communities
The Vision Zero-Safe Systems Approach prioritizes fast access to Emergency Medical Services (EMS) to improve the survivability of road users in transportation crashes, especially concerning the recent increase in pedestrian-involved crashes. Pedestrian crashes resulting in immediate or early death are considerably more severe than those taking longer. The time gap between injury and fatality is known as survival time, and it heavily relies on EMS response time. The characteristics of the crash location may be associated with EMS response and survival time. A US Department of Transportation initiative identifies communities often facing challenges. Six disadvantaged community (DAC) indicators, including economy, environment, equity, health, resilience, and transportation access, enable an analysis of how survival and EMS response times vary across DACs and non-DACs. To this end, this study created a unique and comprehensive database by linking DACs data with 2017–2021 pedestrian-involved fatal crashes. This study utilizes two-stage residual inclusion models with segmentation for DACs and non-DACs accounting for the endogenous relationship between EMS response and pedestrian survival time. The results indicate that EMS response time is higher and pedestrian survival time is lower in DACs than in non-DACs. A delayed EMS response time is associated with a greater reduction in survival time in DACs compared to non-DACs. Factors, e.g., nighttime and interstate crashes, contribute to higher EMS response time, while pedestrian drugs, driver speeding, and hit-and-run behaviors are associated with a greater reduction in survival time in DACs than non-DACs. Finally, the implications of the findings are discussed in the paper.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Enhancing the Survivability of Power Systems With Grid-Edge DERs Against DoS Attacks
Power system survivability, defined as the ability of a system to maintain steady-state functionality under varying operational conditions, reflects its resilience against disturbances. While existing research primarily focuses on physical-layer disturbances, the increasing prevalence of grid-edge DERs, which are primarily used for integrating renewable energy, has significantly expanded the cyber attack surface. As a result, operational disruptions caused by cyber threats are posing significant challenges to system survivability and cannot be overlooked. To fill this gap, we redefine system survivability to incorporate the cyber layer’s status and propose a Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) approach to enhance power system survivability against potential cyber-physical threats. In this paper, we first analyze the operational guidelines of systems with a high penetration of DERs under various cyber network conditions and redefine survivability in this context. Next, we focus on the most common cyber threat, Denial-of-Service (DoS) attacks, and develop a corresponding attack model. This model allows for the creation of a kernel-based ambiguity set that captures attack uncertainties using historical data. Finally, we transform the proposed DRO model as a tractable optimization problem, with its solution providing an optimal cyber redundancy plan to enhance system survivability in DoS attack scenarios. Simulation results on the IEEE 13-node and 123-node test feeders demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed model in improving system survivability. This model can also be expanded to include other types of common attacks and serve as a comprehensive planning tool to improve overall cyber physical survival of the system.
cybersecurity↗
Differential early–life survival underlies the adaptive significance of temperature–dependent sex determination in a long–lived reptile
1. Many ectotherms rely on temperature cues experienced during development to determine offspring sex. The first descriptions of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) were made over 50 years ago, yet an understanding of its adaptive significance remains elusive, especially in long-lived taxa. 2. One novel hypothesis predicts that TSD should be evolutionarily favoured when two criteria are met—(a) incubation temperature influences annual juvenile survival and (b) sexes mature at different ages. Under these conditions, a sex-dependent effect of incubation temperature on offspring fitness arises through differences in age at sexual maturity, with the sex that matures later benefiting disproportionately from temperatures that promote juvenile survival. 3. The American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) serves as an insightful model in which to test this hypothesis, as males begin reproducing nearly a decade after females. Here, through a combination of artificial incubation experiments and mark-recapture approaches, we test the specific predictions of the survival-to-maturity hypothesis for the adaptive value of TSD by disentangling the effects of incubation temperature and sex on annual survival of alligator hatchlings across two geographically distinct sites. 4. Hatchlings incubated at male-promoting temperatures (MPTs) consistently exhibited higher survival compared to those incubated at female-promoting temperatures. This pattern appears independent of hatchling sex, as females produced from hormone manipulation at MPT exhibit similar survival to their male counterparts. 5. Additional experiments show that incubation temperature may affect early-life survival primarily by affecting the efficiency with which maternally transferred energy resources are used during development. 6. Results from this study provide the first explicit empirical support for the adaptive value of TSD in a crocodilian and point to developmental energetics as a potential unifying mechanism underlying persistent survival consequences of incubation temperature.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
In Search of a Cost-Effective Approach for Estimating Dam Passage Survival
Abstract Passage of downstream-migrating fishes through hydropower dams poses a management issue in rivers throughout the world. As such, regulations have been enacted at many locales to understand and limit fish losses by requiring dam passage survival estimation. However, limiting estimates of survival to the dam and immediate tailrace presents a challenge to researchers. In this study, two alternative release–recapture methods were used to estimate dam passage survival of juvenile salmonids through Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River, Washington, in 2018. One approach, the virtual/paired-release (ViPRe) model, was extensively used in the Columbia–Snake River basin at federally operated hydroelectric dams during 2010–2014. This existing approach uses three releases of tagged smolts to isolate dam passage survival, defined as survival from the upstream dam face to the tailrace mixing zone 1–2 km downstream of the dam. An alternative approach, the virtual release/dead-fish correction (ViRDCt) model, uses one live-release group paired with a release of dead tagged fish at the dam to estimate the same survival parameter. The alternative estimation approaches were tested on two spring out-migrating stocks, yearling Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss, and on a summer out-migrating stock of subyearling Chinook Salmon. The alternative estimates for these stocks were all within 1 SE. However, the ViRDCt model produced survival estimates with SEs that were 59% smaller than those of the existing ViPRe model and did so using 42% fewer tagged fish and one less downstream acoustic detection array. Because of the reduced sample size, nearly US$540,000 less in tag costs and 4,000 fewer labor-hours were required to implement the ViRDCt model compared to the ViPRe model. As such, the ViRDCt model represents a cost-effective and precise approach to characterizing dam passage survival.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Effects of Desiccation and Freezing on Microbial Ionizing Radiation Survivability: Considerations for Mars Sample Return
Increasingly, national space agencies are expanding their goals to include Mars exploration with sample return. To better protect Earth and its biosphere from potential extraterrestrial sources of contamination, as set forth in the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, international efforts to develop planetary protection measures strive to understand the danger of cross-contamination processes in Mars sample return missions. We aim to better understand the impact of the martian surface on microbial dormancy and survivability. Radiation resistance of microbes is a key parameter in considering survivability of microbes over geologic times on the frigid, arid surface of Mars that is bombarded by solar and galactic cosmic radiation. We tested the influence of desiccation and freezing on the ionizing radiation survival of six model microorganisms: vegetative cells of two bacteria (Deinococcus radiodurans, Escherichia coli) and a strain of budding yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae); and vegetative cells and endospores of three Bacillus bacteria (B. subtilis, B. megaterium, B. thuringiensis). Desiccation and freezing greatly increased radiation survival of vegetative polyploid microorganisms when applied separately, and when combined, desiccation and freezing increased radiation survival even more so. Thus, the radiation survival threshold of polyploid D. radiodurans cells can be extended from the already high value of 25 kGy in liquid culture to an astonishing 140 kGy when the cells are both desiccated and frozen. However, such synergistic radioprotective effects of desiccation and freezing were not observed in monogenomic or digenomic Bacillus cells and endospores, which are generally sterilized by 12 kGy. This difference is associated with a critical requirement for survivability under radiation, that is, repair of genome damage caused by radiation. Deinococcus radiodurans and S. cerevisiae accumulate similarly high levels of the Mn antioxidants that are required for extreme radiation resistance, as do endospores, though they greatly exceed spores in radioresistance because they contain multiple identical genome copies, which in D. radiodurans are joined by persistent Holliday junctions. We estimate ionizing radiation survival limits of polyploid DNA-based life-forms to be hundreds of millions of years of background radiation while buried in the martian subsurface. Our findings imply that forward contamination of Mars will essentially be permanent, and backward contamination is a possibility if life ever existed on Mars.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Urban relatives ameliorate survival disparities for genitourinary cancer in rural patients
Patients living in rural areas have worse cancer-specific outcomes. This study examines the effect of family-based social capital on genitourinary cancer survival. We hypothesized that rural patients with urban relatives have improved survival relative to rural patients without urban family. We examined rural and urban based Utah individuals diagnosed with genitourinary cancers between 1968 and 2018. Familial networks were determined using the Utah Population Database. Patients and relatives were classified as rural or urban based on 2010 rural–urban commuting area codes. Overall survival was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models. We identified 24,746 patients with genitourinary cancer with a median follow-up of 8.72 years. Rural cancer patients without an urban relative had the worst outcomes with cancer-specific survival hazard ratios (HRs) at 5 and 10 years of 1.33 (95% CI 1.10–1.62) and 1.46 (95% CI 1.24–1.73), respectively relative to urban patients. Rural patients with urban first-degree relatives had improved survival with 5- and 10-year survival HRs of 1.21 (95% CI 1.06–1.40) and 1.16 (95% CI 1.03–1.31), respectively. Our findings suggest rural patients who have been diagnosed with a genitourinary cancer have improved survival when having relatives in urban centers relative to rural patients without urban relatives. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms through which having an urban family member contributes to improved cancer outcomes for rural patients. Better characterization of this affect may help inform policies to reduce urban–rural cancer disparities.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Fitness factors impacting survival of a subsurface bacterium in contaminated groundwater
Many factors contribute to the ability of a microbial species to persist when encountering complexly contaminated environments, including time of exposure, the nature and concentration of contaminants, availability of nutritional resources, and possession of a combination of appropriate molecular mechanisms needed for survival. Herein we sought to identify genes that are most important for survival of Gram-negative Enterobacteriaceae in contaminated groundwater environments containing high concentrations of nitrate and metals using the metal-tolerant Oak Ridge Reservation isolate, Pantoea sp. MT58 (MT58). Survival fitness experiments in which a randomly barcoded transposon insertion (RB-TnSeq) library of MT58 was exposed directly to contaminated Oak Ridge Reservation groundwater samples from across a nitrate and mixed metal contamination plume were used to identify genes important for survival with increasing exposure times and concentrations of contaminants, and availability of a carbon source. Genes involved in controlling and using carbon, encoding transcriptional regulators, and related to Gram-negative outer membrane processes were among those found to be important for survival in contaminated Oak Ridge Reservation groundwater. A comparative genomics analysis of 75 Pantoea genus strains allowed us to further separate the survival determinants into core and non-core genes in the Pantoea pangenome, revealing insights into the survival of subsurface microorganisms during contaminant plume intrusion.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗