Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “surface product”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Beyond the visible: Accounting for ultraviolet and far‐red radiation in vegetation productivity and surface energy budgets

Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) is typically defined as light with a wavelength within 400–700 nm. However, ultra-violet (UV) radiation within 280–400 nm and far-red (FR) radiation within 700–750 nm can also excite photosystems, though not as efficiently as PAR. Vegetation and land surface models (LSMs) typically do not explicitly account for UV's contribution to energy budgets or photosynthesis, nor FR's contribution to photosynthesis. However, whether neglecting UV and FR has significant impacts remains unknown. Here, we explored how canopy radiative transfer (RT) and photosynthesis are impacted when explicitly implementing UV in the canopy RT model and accounting for UV and FR in the photosynthesis models within a next-generation LSM that can simulate hyperspectral canopy RT. We validated our improvements using photosynthesis measurements from plants under different light sources and intensities and surface reflection from an eddy-covariance tower. Our model simulations suggested that at the whole plant level, after accounting for UV and FR explicitly, chlorophyll content, leaf area index (LAI), clumping index, and solar radiation all impact the modeling of gross primary productivity (GPP). At the global scale, mean annual GPP within a grid would increase by up to 7.3% and the increase is proportional to LAI; globally integrated GPP increases by 4.6 PgC year −1 (3.8% of the GPP without accounting for UV + FR). Further, using PAR to proxy UV could overestimate surface albedo by more than 0.1, particularly in the boreal forests. Our results highlight the importance of improving UV and FR in canopy RT and photosynthesis modeling and the necessity to implement hyperspectral or multispectral canopy RT schemes in future vegetation and LSMs.

energy budget↗
DOE OSTI2024

Areal-Averaged Surface Albedo (ArealAveAlb) Value-Added Product

The surface albedo plays an important role in the Earth's radiation balance. This report provides information on how to estimate areal-averaged surface albedo from ground-based measurements of solar radiation at five wavelengths (415,500,615,675, and 870 nm). The report first explains why this estimation is important and challenging. Then the report defines both the required and complimentary inputs for the corresponding Areal-Averaged Surface Albedo (ArealAveAlb) Value-Added Product (VAP) and highlights the major outputs of this VAP. The following section explains how estimation of the areal-averaged surface albedo at four wavelengths (500,615,675, and 870 nm) can be performed for different surface types, including those partly covered by snow. The final section provides three examples that illustrate the VAP’s performance and emphasizes the benefits of complementary inputs, such as distinct cloud types and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Carboxylic acid induced restructuring of the Fe 3 O 4 (001) surface

The redox properties of Fe 3 O 4 surfaces are central to many catalytic processes and enable dynamic, reduction-induced morphological restructuring during reactions. Here, we investigate the structural changes of the Fe 3 O 4 (001) surface during the decomposition of formic and acetic acids using scanning tunneling microscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Both acids readily deprotonate, forming ordered carboxylate overlayers on the surface. Product formation pathways involve the removal of lattice oxygen, resulting in extensive surface restructuring. For formic acid, only a modest level of surface oxygen removal (∼3%) is observed, resulting in elongated pits along the octahedral Fe rows and exhibiting an aspect ratio of ∼3. In contrast, acetic acid induces more extensive reduction, with the removal of ∼20% of surface oxygen, yielding significantly larger pits while maintaining a similar aspect ratio. Repeated exposure to acetic acid further enlarges the pits, indicating preferential etching at step edges. DFT calculations reveal a mechanistic sequence in which lattice oxygen removal destabilizes adjacent Fe atoms, promoting their migration into the bulk and subsequent pit propagation and step edge formation. Together, these findings provide atomistic insights into the coupling between carboxylic acid conversion and oxide surface restructuring, underscoring the strong interplay between redox chemistry and morphological changes on catalytically active Fe 3 O 4 surfaces.

Ortiz-Garcia, José J. [Pacific Northwest National ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initiation of dusting corrosion in high-temperature alloys under CO exposure

Carbon monoxide is commonly encountered in energy systems, yet its reactivity with structural alloys—critical heat-resistant components in these systems—has been largely overlooked compared to the well-documented effects of oxidizing gases. In contrast, we demonstrate the high-temperature reaction of CO with NiAl using in-situ low-energy electron microscopy and X-ray photoemission electron microscopy. Our results show that CO dissociates into atomic oxygen and carbon, resulting in two concurrent reactions: selective oxidation of aluminum to form Al 2 O 3 and the initiation of dusting corrosion through carbon dissolution into the alloy and subsequent carbon deposition on the surface. These reactions produce spatially distinct surface products, preventing the formation of a continuous protective Al oxide layer. These results reveal a preference for the dissociative pathway of CO over the classic Boudouard disproportionation reaction that forms CO 2 . These insights not only advance our understanding of CO-induced alloy degradation but also highlight the practical implications for managing alloy stability and optimizing catalysis in carbon-rich environments, such as those in petrochemical processing and hydrocarbon combustion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transitioning from Simulation to Reality: Applying Chatter Detection Models to Real-World Machining Data

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, is a critical challenge in high-speed machining operations, affecting tool life, product surface quality, and overall process efficiency. While machine learning models trained on simulated data have shown promise in detecting chatter, their real-world applicability remains uncertain due to discrepancies between simulated and actual machining environments. The primary goal of this study is to bridge the gap between simulation-based machine learning models and real-world applications by developing and validating a Random Forest-based chatter detection system. This research focuses on improving manufacturing efficiency through reliable chatter detection by integrating Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), Receptance Coupling Substructure Analysis (RCSA), and Transfer Learning (TL). The study applies a Random Forest classification model trained on over 140,000 simulated machining datasets, incorporating techniques like Operational Modal Analysis (OMA), Receptance Coupling Substructure Analysis (RCSA), and Transfer Learning (TL) to adapt the model for real-world operational data. The model is validated against 1600 real-world machining datasets, achieving an accuracy of 86.1%, with strong precision and recall scores. The results demonstrate the model’s robustness and potential for practical implementation in industrial settings, highlighting challenges such as sensor noise and variability in machining conditions. This work advances the use of predictive analytics in machining processes, offering a data-driven solution to improve manufacturing efficiency through more reliable chatter detection.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

SAIL Field Campaign X-Band Precipitation Radar Seasonal Surface Hydrometeor Phase Classification Value-Added Product Report

The Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign generated an unprecedented, multisensory record of cold-season precipitation in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). To complement the Surface Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (SQUIRE) snow water equivalent (SWE) product derived from the Colorado State University (CSU) X-band radar, a hydrometeor phase classification data set was developed to systematically identify phase of the near-surface precipitation. The algorithm uses Corrected Moments in Antenna Coordinates (CMAC) fields with semi-supervised classification (SSC) and fuzzy-logic hydrometeor classification (FHC) methods and maps hydrometeor classes to a compact set of phase classes suitable for Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) and hydrologic applications. We used SQUIRE grid projections to mitigate beam-blockage issues by selecting the near-surface gates for each beam as well as to make it directly usable for the QPE products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Synthesis of ARM User Facility Surface Rainfall Datasets to Construct a Best Estimate Value Added Product (PrecipBE)

Surface precipitation measurements are essential for Earth system model (ESM) evaluation and understanding cloud processes. An ever-growing need for robust, temporally evolving, and easy-to-use statistical datasets provides motivation for a baseline ground-based precipitation properties data product. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates an extensive suite of precipitation instruments with various sensitivities and operating mechanisms, which render the decision of which instrument to use based on one or more fixed thresholds challenging and prone to errors and bias. Using a long-term instrument inter-comparison from a unique per-precipitation event perspective, rather than instantaneous sample comparison, we demonstrate that ARM rainfall-measuring instruments are generally consistent with each other at the statistical level. Inter-instrument deviations at the single event level can be large, especially for specific rainfall event properties such as maximum precipitation rates. A machine-learning (ML) analysis using a random forest regressor indicates that in some cases, depending on instrument, local site climatology, and/or specific deployment configuration, certain atmospheric state variables influence the measured quantities in an unpredictable manner. Thus, a-priori weighting of different instruments does not necessarily lead to more accurate and less biased synthesis of instrument data. These results motivate the design of the ARM precipitation best-estimate (PrecipBE) value-added product, which incorporates all valid precipitation data while considering data quality and other instrument limitations. PrecipBE consists of time series and tabular statistics datasets in an easy-to-use and insightful per-precipitation event format. It provides a large set of precipitation event properties supplemented with ancillary data from ARM datasets that correspond to the detected precipitation events. We describe the PrecipBE algorithm and demonstrate its use via the examination of a single-day output as well as a long-term trend analysis of precipitation events at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, covering more than 30 years of data. The trend analysis tentatively suggests a long-term temporal tendency for mainly shorter and less intense precipitation events at the SGP site, but a long-term increase in annual rainfall by more than 36 mm (5 %) per decade. This rainfall trend is catalyzed primarily by more extreme event properties of relatively rare, intense precipitation events, with event total and 1 min maximum precipitation rate at a 1 year timeframe increasing up to 5 mm and 9 mm h −1 (several percent) per decade, respectively. While the currently available PrecipBE datasets (at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/, last access: 8 December 2025) cover rainfall from multiple ARM deployments up to March 2025, PrecipBE is planned to be expanded to include solid-phase precipitation and will soon become an operational product with a several-day lag from real-time. We invite the ARM user community to leverage this new product and welcome user feedback to further enhance the dataset.

Silber, Israel [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2026

CHESS 2025: Spectrometer orthorectified at-sensor radiance from NEON AOP imaging spectroscopy surveys

This dataset provides Level 1 (L1) orthorectified at-sensor radiance derived from measurements collected by the Imaging Spectrometer-1 (NIS-1) onboard the NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) Airborne Observation Platform (AOP) for the 2025 Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS). NIS-1 captures light reflected from the Earth’s surface in 426 discrete wavelength bands as raw digital numbers (DNs; Level 0). These data are then calibrated to physical units (uW/cm²·sr·nm) following the processing steps described in the NEON Imaging Spectrometer Level 1B Calibrated Radiance Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD; Gallery 2022). The data delivered here are the primary inputs for the surface reflectance product in “Custom surface reflectance, shade masks, and equivalent water thickness maps for the Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study” (Carroll et al. 2026). For intertemporal comparison, the radiance data here are most directly relatable to the v2 radiance data in “NEON AOP Imaging Spectroscopy Survey of Upper East River Colorado Watersheds: Raw-Space Radiance and Observational Variable Dataset” (Goulden et al. 2018), to which the same processing methodology was applied. Together, the radiance and reflectance data enable users to exploit the unique reflection signatures of different surface objects for land cover classification, foliar trait mapping, plant vigor assessment, water content estimation, trace-element identification, and other scientific applications. The data were acquired over three study domains in the Upper Gunnison river basin: the upper East River watershed (CRBU); Almont Triangle and Taylor Canyon (ALMO); and Upper Taylor River watershed (UPTA) between 2025-06-13 and 2025-07-15. Within each domain, data are delivered by flightline as orthorectified and calibrated hyperspectral rasters in Hierarchical Data Format version 5 (HDF5) format, with radiance values provided in uW/cm²·sr·nm on a fixed, uniform Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) grid at 1 meter spatial resolution. The radiance rasters include all 426 NIS-1 spectral bands, along with associated quality-assurance (QA) and diagnostic and ancillary layers needed for atmospheric correction workflows. Orthorectified radiance is produced from pushbroom spectrometer observations by applying NEON’s radiometric calibration (including bad pixel masking, dark subtract, dark pedestal shift correction, electronic panel ghost correction, grating ghost correction, deblur correction and flat-fielding) and spectral calibration (using spectral response function band centers and full-width at half-maximum intensity), followed by geolocation and regridding to the fixed grid. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. Funding Acknowledgement: Field and remote-sensing data acquisition was performed under a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC24K1005). This work was also supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗
DOE OSTI2024

A mapped dataset of surface ocean acidification indicators in large marine ecosystems of the United States

Mapped monthly data products of surface ocean acidification indicators from 1998 to 2022 on a 0.25° by 0.25° spatial grid have been developed for eleven U.S. large marine ecosystems (LMEs). The data products were constructed using observations from the Surface Ocean CO 2 Atlas, co-located surface ocean properties, and two types of machine learning algorithms: Gaussian mixture models to organize LMEs into clusters of similar environmental variability and random forest regressions (RFRs) that were trained and applied within each cluster to spatiotemporally interpolate the observational data. The data products, called RFR-LMEs, have been averaged into regional timeseries to summarize the status of ocean acidification in U.S. coastal waters, showing a domain-wide carbon dioxide partial pressure increase of 1.4 ± 0.4 μatm yr -1 and pH decrease of 0.0014 ± 0.0004 yr -1 . RFR-LMEs have been evaluated via comparisons to discrete shipboard data, fixed timeseries, and other mapped surface ocean carbon chemistry data products. Regionally averaged timeseries of RFR-LME indicators are provided online through the NOAA National Marine Ecosystem Status web portal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Boundary Layer Height Detection Using Ceilometer, Surface Meteorology, and Radiation Products With a Random Forest Ensemble Method

This study develops and evaluates a Random Forest (RF) model for estimating planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) using 9 years of data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) user facility, with potential application in the NOAA Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) Network. The model integrates ceilometer, surface meteorology, and radiation measurements, and is trained using thermodynamic PBLH estimates derived from radiosondes. This approach aims to bridge gaps between aerosol-based and thermodynamic-based PBLH estimates. The RF model outperformed traditional methods during daytime and better captured transition periods, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. At ARM SGP, it showed a substantial reduction in both bias and RMSE, with a bias near zero (−4.9 m) compared with traditional Haar Wavelet (HW) (70.9 m) and Vaisala BL-View software (124.1 m), and an RMSE of 303.2 m, lower than both BL-View (566.9 m) and HW (404.6 m). During daytime hours, RF consistently outperformed both alternatives, maintaining lower bias and RMSE across all periods. At a second evaluation site, RF achieved the lowest overall RMSE (323.7 m), similar to HW (326.4 m) and significantly better than BL-View (738.3 m). However, all models showed reduced accuracy under stable nighttime conditions, limiting the reliability of PBLH estimates. Key predictors for the model included the lifting condensation level height (LCLH), aerosol gradients, and month for seasonal variability. The study underscores the potential of integrating machine learning with multiple data sets such as surface energy and thermodynamic data to advance PBLH estimation.

boundary layer height↗
DOE OSTI2025

Utility of near‐surface phenology in estimating productivity and evapotranspiration across diverse ecosystems

Abstract Agroecosystems, which include row crops, pasture, and grass and shrub grazing lands, are sensitive to changes in management, weather, and genetics. To better understand how these systems are responding to changes, we need to improve monitoring and modeling carbon and water dynamics. Vegetation Indices (VIs) are commonly used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), but these empirical relationships are often location and crop specific. There is a need to evaluate if VIs can be effective and, more general, predictors of ecosystem processes through time and across different agroecosystems. Near‐surface photographic (red‐green‐blue) images from PhenoCam can be used to calculate the VI green chromatic coordinate (G CC ) and offer a pathway to improve understanding of field‐scale relationships between VIs and GPP and ET. We synthesized observations spanning 76 site‐years across 15 agroecosystem sites with PhenoCam G CC and GPP or ET estimates from eddy covariance (EC) to quantify interannual variability (IAV) in the relationship between GPP and ET and G CC across. We uncovered a high degree of variability in the strength and slopes of the G CC ∼ GPP and ET relationships (R 2 = 0.1 ‐ 0.9) within and across production systems. Overall, G CC is a better predictor of GPP than ET (R 2 = 0.64 and 0.54, respectively), performing best in croplands (R 2 = 0.91). Shrub‐dominated systems exhibit the lowest predictive power of G CC for GPP and ET but have less IAV in slope. We propose that PhenoCam estimates of G CC could provide an alternative approach for predictions of ecosystem processes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hot Springs and Geysers: Exploring Historical and Modern Impacts of Geothermal Energy Production on Associated Natural Surface Systems and Standardizing Management Practices

Surface thermal features, most notably hot springs and geysers are increasingly being recognized for their importance to ecosystems, indigenous cultures, and in some cases agriculture, recreation, and tourism. Geothermal project development poses a potential risk to these natural features but current regulatory requirements for assessing and managing these risks during exploration, permitting and monitoring are somewhat inconsistent and unpredictable across different geothermal fields. This has resulted in uncertainty and increases in exploration risk for geothermal energy developers that have led to costly project delays, cancellations, or hesitation to commit. Varying regulatory requirements may also influence public perception, fostering confusion, distrust and ultimately opposition to geothermal projects, further contributing to project delays or cancellations. At a time when there is an increasing urgency for reliable baseload clean energy, geothermal is a net-zero, renewable solution that additionally provides access to more equitable and environmentally just clean power. Continued integration of geothermal energy into the national energy roadmap can be facilitated through consistent and predictable permitting, providing regulators the framework they need, developers a clear path forward, and transparency that the public deserves. This project, currently in its beginning phases, seeks to address this important issue by providing a technical basis from which to build a preliminary protocol for assessing and managing potential impacts from new or existing geothermal energy projects to surface thermal features and their associated ecosystems. Development of this preliminary protocol will be informed by (1) a literature review of well-documented case studies in the western U.S. and New Zealand to understand the range of conditions that exemplify geothermal-surface thermal systems; (2) development of generic illustrative conceptual-numerical models to quantify, understand, and predict the first-order controls (e.g., pressure and permeability) on surface flows; and (3) additional independent and scientifically rigorous evaluations of geothermal-surface thermal system case studies from the Basin and Range Province that incorporate publicly available data as well as data provided by industry through data-sharing agreements. Learning from the successes of the process used to develop the Induced Seismicity Management Protocol (ISMP), we ultimately aim to use these initial efforts as a springboard for establishing a surface thermal feature management working group that will work collaboratively to finalize the protocol as well as co-create recommended best practices for implementation. We envision that the working group will primarily be composed of representatives from regulatory entities, government agencies, Tribes, academia, national laboratories, and industry, and will include early and regular engagement with community organizations and environmental groups. This will help ensure broad acceptance and implementation of the protocol, which will facilitate a more consistent, predictable, and standardized regulatory process, and help to ensure that geothermal energy continues to provide a reliable source of clean energy, and a pathway to achieving greater energy equity in the U.S.

Best Practices↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation and calibration of MERRA-2 and CAMS reanalysis for PM 2.5 in a semi-urbanized area in the south of the Amazon

Air pollution has significant implications for the climate and poses irreversible risks to human health. The Amazon region of Brazil is severely affected by biomass burning (BB) emissions, yet air quality monitoring remains highly inadequate. Given the scarcity of surface-based observations, reanalysis models have become essential tools for assessing air pollution. Although MERRA-2 and CAMS PM 2.5 products are widely utilized, their validation and comprehensive evaluation for the Amazon Basin remain limited. Here, this study assesses the performance of these products in a semi-urbanized region in the southern Amazon. The calibrated time series was employed to analyze PM 2.5 concentrations from 2003 to 2023. Our results showed satisfactory performance of both products for the 24-h averages of PM 2.5 , with linear correlations above 0.76. However, it was found that both products overestimate surface concentrations. MERRA-2 performed better, with approximately 30% lower bias than CAMS. Time series analysis showed that the study area is strongly impacted by emissions BB in the dry period, mainly in August and September. Furthermore, our findings indicate a positive trend in increasing PM 2.5 concentrations, with a notable rise observed since 2014. The average PM 2.5 levels frequently exceed the daily air quality guidelines established by the WHO in 2021. It has been estimated that the population of this region is exposed to concentrations above 15 μg.m -3 , on average, more than 30 days per year. Our results contribute to the evaluation of MERRA-2 and CAMS products for Amazon and provide a corrected estimate for surface PM 2.5 . Recent concerns about air quality and the implementation of new surface monitoring networks may improve the evaluation of reanalysis products. In the short term, the need for this information makes our assessments indispensable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Downscaled GOES-R 500m Land Surface Albedo Over SAIL

This data set contains surface albedo estimates across the SAIL study area derived from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R). Unlike the GOES-R surface albedo product, which is reported at 2-km resolution, this data set is produced at 500-m resolution and is produced by downscaling GOES-R data. The downscaling is performed using a "U-Net" and trained with concurrent, collocated, GOES-R surface albedo and 500-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) blue-sky albedo derived from the MCD43A3 product.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stream bed topography in 2016 at the Lower Montane site in the East River Watershed, Colorado

This dataset contains stream bed topography data from the Lower Montane site in the East River Watershed, Colorado. It is intended to support hydro-biogeochemical analyses for the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA). The stream bed was surveyed using a RTK-GPS (Real-Time Kinematic Global Positioning System) and a total station at hundreds of locations during two field campaigns, conducted in October 2015 and October 2016. The two surveys were merged into a single product under the assumption of minimal changes in stream bed topography between the years. A LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) derived ground surface elevation product from 2015 (see reference below) was used to interpolate the stream bed topography and estimate water depth at the time of the LiDAR survey. The dataset includes three GeoTIFF products, two *.csv data files, and three *.csv metadata files. Feel free to contact the author with any questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Downscaled CMIP5 projections of physical fire risk understate historical trends

Reliable projections of wildfire risk are important for multi-sector impacts analysis. Statistically downscaled and bias-corrected Earth system model ensemble products are routinely used to analyze regional physical wildfire risk, but evaluations of historical observed trends and variability are lacking. Here, we evaluate physical fire risk over the western United States using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) by comparing model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), statistically downscaled via the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) approach, against the observational target dataset gridMET, a gridded high-resolution surface meteorological product. We analyze multidecadal trends and interannual variability in seasonal average FWI for the historical period and future projections under two emissions scenarios, and we compare MACA-CMIP5 ensemble results with a simple time series model that generates historical and future projections of seasonal FWI based on bootstrapping observed historical trends and variability. Our findings indicate that MACA-CMIP5 accurately captures the magnitude and spatial patterns of seasonally averaged FWI but tends to underestimate historical decadal trends. We show that future increases in fire risk may be underestimated relative to the simple time series model that projects historical variability into the future. We also highlight that model biases in relative humidity contribute significantly to model-data differences. Our results underscore the importance of historical hindcasting exercises for informing broader multi-sector applications.

FWI↗
DOE OSTI2025

From the top: surface-derived carbon fuels greenhouse gas production at depth in a peatland

Tropical peatlands play an important role in global carbon (C) cycling, but little is known about factors driving carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) emissions from these ecosystems, especially production in deeper soils. This study aimed to identify source material and processes regulating C emissions originating deep in three sites in a peatland on the Caribbean coast of Panama. We hypothesized that (1) surface-derived organic matter transported down the soil profile is the primary C source for respiration products at depth and that (2) high lignin content results in hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis as the dominant CH 4 production pathway throughout the profile. We used radiocarbon isotopic values to determine whether CO 2 and CH 4 at depth are produced from modern substrates or ancient deep peat, and we used stable C isotopes to identify the dominant CH 4 production pathway. Peat organic chemistry was characterized using 13 C solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ( 13 C-NMR). We found that deep peat respiration products had radiocarbon signatures that were more similar to surface dissolved organic C (DOC) than deep solid peat. These results indicate that surface-derived organic matter was the dominant source for gas production at depth in this peatland, likely because of vertical transport of DOC from the surface to depth. Lignin, which was the most abundant compound (55 %–70 % of C), increased with depth across these sites, whereas other C compounds like carbohydrates did not vary with depth. These results suggest that there is no preferential decomposition of carbohydrates but instead preferential retention of lignin. Stable isotope signatures of respiration products indicated that hydrogenotrophic rather than acetoclastic methanogenesis was the dominant production pathway of CH 4 throughout the peat profile. These results show that deep C in tropical peatlands does not contribute greatly to surface fluxes of carbon dioxide, with compounds like lignin preferentially retained. This protection of deep C helps explain how peatland C is retained over thousands of years and points to the vulnerability of this C should anaerobic conditions in these wet ecosystems change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗