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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Reevaluating Suitability Estimates Based on Dynamics of Cropland Expansion in the Brazilian Amazon

Agricultural suitability maps are a key input for land use zoning and projections of cropland expansion. Suitability assessments typically consider edaphic conditions, climate, crop characteristics, and sometimes incorporate accessibility to transportation and market infrastructure. However, correct weighting among these disparate factors is challenging, given rapid development of new crop varieties, irrigation, and road networks, as well as changing global demand for agricultural commodities. Here, we compared three independent assessments of cropland suitability to spatial and temporal dynamics of agricultural expansion in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 2001 2012. We found that areas of recent cropland expansion identified using satellite data were generally designated as low to moderate suitability for rainfed crop production. Our analysis highlighted the abrupt nature of suitability boundaries, rather than smooth gradients of agricultural potential, with little additional cropland expansion beyond the extent of the flattest areas (0-2% slope). Satellite-based estimates of the interannual variability in the use of existing crop areas also provided an alternate means to assess suitability. On average, cropland areas in the Cerrado biome had higher utilization (84%) than croplands in the Amazon region of northern Mato Grosso (74%). Areas of more recent expansion had lower utilization than croplands established before 2002, providing empirical evidence for lower suitability or alternative management strategies (e.g., pasture soya rotations) for lands undergoing more recent land use transitions. This unplanted reserve constitutes a large area of potentially available cropland (PAC)without further expansion, within the management limits imposed for pest management and fallow cycles. Using two key constraints on future cropland expansion, slope and restrictions on further deforestation of Amazon or Cerrado vegetation, we found little available flat land for further legal expansion of crop production in Mato Grosso. Dynamics of cropland expansion from more than a decade of satellite observations indicated narrow ranges of suitability criteria, restricting PAC under current policy conditions, and emphasizing the advantages of field-scale information to assess suitability and utilization.

Morton, Douglas C.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Bayesian models project shifts in suitable habitat for Pacific Northwest tree species under climate change

Abstract We developed spatial Bayesian hierarchical models to assess potential climate change impacts on suitable habitat for five important tree species in the Pacific northwestern United States (California, Oregon, and Washington). Individual‐species models were fit with presence–absence data from forest inventory field plots and spatial relationships were specified through a conditional autoregressive model. This modeling approach allowed us to visualize uncertainty in response curves, map current and future prediction uncertainty, and provide interval estimates for change. Upward elevational or northward latitudinal shifts in climatically suitable habitat were projected for all species. Climate change impacts were the most damaging for noble fir ( Abies procera ), for which 79%–100% of the current range was projected to become climatically unsuitable by the 2080s. Although coastal Douglas‐fir ( Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii ) has been projected by others to gain habitat in Canada, within our study area we projected a net loss of climatically suitable habitat (ca. 8000–31,400 km 2 ) under three of four future climate scenarios. A net loss in habitat was also projected for Oregon white oak ( Quercus garryana ) under three of four scenarios, with 40%–60% of the current range becoming unsuitable. Although there was no net loss of habitat for forest land blue oak under any scenario, other factors like competition may inhibit blue oak ( Quercus douglasii ) and white oak from occupying areas projected to increase in climatic suitability. Additionally, between 13% and 32% of blue oak's current range was projected to become unsuitable; some of these areas aligned with dieback following the 2012–2015 California drought, which our data set predates. Unlike the other four species, we projected a 17%–25% increase in climatically suitable habitat for California black oak ( Quercus kelloggii ), although 1%–20% of the current range was still projected to become unsuitable. Our findings indicate that, although some species will face more pressure in tracking climatically suitable habitat than others, climate change will impact the location of suitable habitat for many species.

Kralicek, Karin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Walking on the dark side: Anthropogenic factors limit suitable habitat for gray wolf ( Canis lupus ) in a large natural area covering Belarus and Ukraine

Due to successful conservation initiatives and legislations, the grey wolf (Canis lupus) is recolonising its historic range in Europe. However, wolves have never been extirpated across large areas in Eastern Europe but are often constrained to remote and inaccessible places due to centuries of persecution. This study aimed to identify the potentially suitable wolf habitats in Polesia, a massive cross-border lowland region extending over southern Belarus and northern Ukraine, which are often neglected in large carnivore studies at the continental scale. We hypothesized that anthropogenic rather than environmental factors govern wolf habitat suitability. We used a dataset of 4191 GPS locations obtained from radio-collared wolves (n = 26) and confirmed observations (n = 231) during 2014–2021 and applied maximum entropy method to estimate relative habitat suitability for wolves in Polesia. Artificial light at night (ALAN), proportion of cropland and tree cover were the most important factors affecting wolf habitat suitability. Road densities contributed poorly to predicting habitat suitability for wolves. Our models predicted a quarter of Polesia as suitable habitat and revealed priority areas connecting the important source populations in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone in the east and the Bialowieza Forest in the west and thus essential for long-term wolf conservation. Our results provide the bases for effective, long-term wolf monitoring and management programs in both Belarus and Ukraine. However, national and transboundary wolf management in Polesia has been extremely challenging since 2022 due to the ongoing war and subsequent habitat degradation in this part of Europe.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Mapping Past, Present, and Future Climatic Suitability for Invasive Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus in the United States: A Process-Based Modeling Approach Using CMIP5 Downscaled Climate Scenarios

The ongoing spread of the mosquitoes, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, in the continental United States leaves new areas at risk for local transmission of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. All three viruses have caused major disease outbreaks in the Americas with infected travelers returning regularly to the U.S. The expanding range of these mosquitoes raises questions about whether recent spread has been enabled by climate change or other anthropogenic influences. In this analysis, we used downscaled climate scenarios from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX GDDP) dataset to model Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population growth rates across the United States. We used a stage-structured matrix population model to understand past and present climatic suitability for these vectors, and to project future suitability under CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Our results indicate that much of the southern U.S. is suitable for both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus year-round. In addition, a large proportion of the U.S. is seasonally suitable for mosquito population growth, creating the potential for periodic incursions into new areas. Changes in climatic suitability in recent decades for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus have occurred already in many regions of the U.S., and model projections of future climate suggest that climate change will continue to reshape the range of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the U.S., and potentially the risk of the viruses they transmit.

process-based modeling↗
NASA NTRS2024

Applications of Remote Sensing for Land Use Planning Scenarios with Suitability Analysis

In regions undergoing rapid urbanization, such as West Africa, land use planning (LUP) is vital to accommodate growing population and manage natural resources. Suitability analysis modeling is a widely used tool in LUP to determine the extent to which a land area is suitable for a designated purpose, but there is a gap in the integration of remote sensing time series data into land use decisions. The goal of this study was to incorporate remote sensing time series information with suitability analyses to inform LUP decisions in urban areas. In the study area of Kumasi, Ghana, land cover trends and land surface temperature (LST) from 2000 to 2019 were used to understand climate change trends. Suitability analyses determined the fitness of land areas for predetermined uses. These background processes informed a genetic algorithm to project plausible futures for three land use scenarios. One scenario represented current land use planning practices for addressing population growth, another scenario prioritized minimizing climate change impacts while also accommodating population growth, and the final scenario focused on both of these climate and population goals in addition to high density urban development. Each of these scenarios was successful in achieving population accommodation and respective climate change mitigation goals. The results for these scenarios provide insight into plausible land use distributions in 2050 based on different planning approaches. The genetic algorithm was able to effectively develop results for each scenario through the integration of remotely sensed trends and suitability models, providing a novel approach to land use decision-making.

remote sensing time series↗
DOE OSTI2020

Potential Suitability of Subirrigation for Field Crops in the U.S. Midwest

Subirrigation through subsurface tile drains has potential to increase crop yields and improve water quality in tile-drained landscapes, but it has not been widely implemented. Identifying locations with high potential suitability for subirrigation may help the planning and implementation of this practice. In this study, we developed a fuzzy rating system for subirrigation suitability using the Gridded Soil Survey Geographic Database (gSSURGO). Maps of the fuzzy rating system identified locations of high potential suitability for subirrigation and highlighted physiographic regions highly conducive to the practice. We identified 78,500 km2, about 9%, of agricultural land in the Midwest with high potential suitability for subirrigation where onsite investigation may be targeted. The largest areas of high potential suitability were found in Minnesota, Illinois, and Indiana. Results from the fuzzy rating analysis are provided to the public through three channels: a downloadable data repository, map service, and web map tool. Ultimately, this study can facilitate the adoption of subirrigation by highlighting areas where subirrigation may potentially be a viable practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Linking habitat suitability with a longleaf pine-hardwood model: Building a species-predictive fire-land management framework

Active management of fire-dependent ecosystems for specific species leads to complex tradeoffs, which affect conservation outcomes to other species. Therefore a multi-species evaluation of management actions is required. Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs) can help in predicting the likelihood of species occurrence using corresponding environmental variables and empirical relationships that link occurrence with specific environmental conditions. Incorporating multiple species into HSMs and relating them to habitat dynamics is crucial for ecosystems that require active management with prescribed fire. To address this issue, we developed multi-species HSM driven within an existing population model of the longleaf pine-hardwood ecosystem to assess the suitability of an ecosystem given different fire management strategies and environmental conditions. The population model used in this study provides spatial and temporal changes of longleaf pine-hardwood habitat structure in response to fire. These habitat values are used by the HSM to calculate habitat suitability for three threatened and endangered faunal species of this ecosystem, which all thrive with frequent fire, but have unique habitat requirements. Transient habitat conditions are traced to predict longleaf pine ecosystem trajectories under various management strategies, thereby evaluating current land management actions, such as thinning or prescribed fire frequencies. We tested a suite of environmental conditions to emphasize the sensitivity of the species to different fire management actions. The results of our modeling suggest that maximum suitable habitat for all three species can be achieved with fire frequency occurring at approximately once every three years. The modeling results support current management actions and provide a new habitat assessment tool that incorporates ecological factors for multiple species, thus providing for habitat optimization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Western Montana Ecological Forecasting II: Enhancing Habitat Suitability Modeling of Mustelid Species and Contaminant Monitoring in Northern Montana Using NASA Earth Observations

Environmental contaminants in aquatic ecosystems threaten both human and ecosystem health. Western Montana’s rivers possess great economic and ecological value, yet the status of contaminants in these systems can be unclear. Contaminants such as brominated flame-retardants, heavy metals, and pharmaceuticals negatively affect ecosystem health by traveling through the food chain and bioaccumulating in apex predators. Exposure to these contaminants can result in neurological, endocrine, and reproductive impairments in wildlife and humans. American mink (Neovison vison) and North American river otter (Lontra canadensis) have a predominantly aquatic diet and serve as reliable indicator species of environmental health. Working Dogs for Conservation (WD4C) uses detection dogs to locate scat samples of these species which are assessed for contaminants by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS). With Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM), the team generated current (2013-2020) and projected (2021-2040) habitat suitability models for mink and otter utilizing NASA Earth observations from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). The habitat suitability maps’ study region encompassed Flathead National Forest and Blackfeet Indian Reservation. Additionally, the team created site accessibility and precipitation anomaly maps that display the viability of survey locations. The current habitat suitability models performed well (AUC-PR=0.88). The most important predictor variables for suitable habitat were distance to rivers, elevation, and land cover. These end products will further inform WD4C survey site selection and contaminant monitoring.

Chelsea Morton↗
NASA NTRS2021

Carolina Coastal Plain Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Map Suitable Venus Flytrap Habitat in an Effort to Inform Conservation, Seed Banking, and Reintroduction in the Carolina Coastal Plain and Sandhills Regions

Although the carnivorous plant Venus flytrap (Dionaea muscipula) is recognized globally, its native range is restricted to a small portion of the North and South Carolina Coastal Plain and Sandhills. Within this limited range, Venus flytrap populations are threatened by habitat loss, fire suppression, and poaching. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the North Carolina Botanical Garden (NCBG), the University of North Carolina Herbarium (NCU), and the North Carolina Natural Heritage Program (NCNHP) to support Venus flytrap conservation. The team developed models based on species presence data and environmental variables using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) to create a 2021 habitat suitability map for Venus flytrap. These models incorporated Earth observations collected by Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI). To predict areas at high risk of development, the team produced a 2050 land-use change map using TerrSet Land Change Modeler. The team found potential areas of conflict between predicted habitat and forecasted future development. Many areas of suitable habitat were concentrated along the coast where development was likely to occur, placing populations there at risk of extirpation. Overlaying suitable habitat with forecasted land change also identified suitable habitats with minimal risk of development, which may serve as lasting Venus flytrap habitat. These results can inform the NCBG and NCNHP’s conservation decision-making, including targeted seed banking, reintroduction, and prioritization of enduring habitats for protection and management.

Monika Rock↗
NASA NTRS2024

The Active Volcanoes of Kamchatka as Suitable Terrestrial Analogs Within the AVENGERS Initiative: An Opportunity for In-Situ Operational Tests for Future Landing Venus Missions

The next decade will see the return to Venus thanks to a number of missions which have been recently selected and proposed for launch. The Roscosmos Venera-D mission, along with the NASA DAVINCI, NASA VERITAS, ESA EnVision, the ISRO Shukrayaan-1, and the CNSA VOICE missions will open a new era for the exploration of the Earth’s hellish twin planet. The next missions to Venus should be able to shed new light on the science questions such as: a) whether the volcanic activity on this planet is locally constrained, or volcanism acts on a global scale, b) the rate of the present-day volcanic activity, and c) the style of volcanism on Venus, whether it is predominantly effusive, or the occurrence of local episodes of pyroclastic volcanism is also possible. In preparation for the future missions to Venus, the Analogs for VENus’ Geologically Recent Surfaces (AVENGERS) initiative will select and analyze a number of active terrestrial volcanoes as suitable analogs for the identification and analysis of active volcanism on Venus. Among the future missions to Venus, the Roscosmos Venera-D is the only one to be equipped with a lander which will analyze the elemental and mineralogical composition of the surface. As the young topographic rises (areas characterized by recent volcano-tectonic activity) on Venus are being proposed as one of the possible terrain types for the Venera-D landing, it is crucial to look for volcanic areas on Earth where to perform operational tests such as surface drilling and in-situ elemental composition analysis. To this regard, we propose here the analysis of the active volcanoes of the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia as a very suitable analog for the Venera-D mission, as well as for the analysis of surface change detection due to ongoing eruptions. The Kamchatka Peninsula is located on the eastern margin of the Eurasia plate, in proximity of the Kuril-Kamchatka subduction zone. The volcanoes of the Kamchatka Peninsula are among the most active volcanoes of the world, making them a suitable terrestrial analog in the search for active volcanism on Venus. Moreover, the volcanoes of Kamchatka are characterized by pyroclastic activity. Since the previous Soviet Venera and Vega missions landed over areas which elemental composition was most likely consistent with that of tholeiitic basalts, performing operational tests over areas characterized by pyroclastic activity also offers the unique opportunity to provide us the tools to potentially interpret the diverse output given by landing over portions of the surface of Venus possibly characterized by explosive volcanic products. Finally, the frequent eruptions characterizing the volcanoes of the Kamchatka Peninsula make them also a suitable terrestrial analog for the possible detection of ongoing eruptions on Venus by future missions, which can be achieved by comparing two (or more) radar images of the same volcano (and its surroundings) in two (or more) different moments of time.

Planetary Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

A multi-criteria land suitability assessment of field allocation decisions for switchgrass

With the goal of evaluating biomass resource availability in certain regions in the United States, the Department of Energy, Department of Agriculture, Environmental Protection Agency, national laboratories, and Forest Service research laboratories, together with academic and industry collaborators, performed a resource analysis study, 2016 Billion-Ton Report: Advancing Domestic Resources for a Thriving Bioeconomy, Volume 1: Economic Availability of Feedstocks, using POLYSYS model to estimate biomass potential. The study provided county- and state-level biomass potential projections, with biomass feedstock production estimates and suitability assessment of lands acreage likely to transition to energy crops. For this analysis, we estimate biomass supply by year 2028, more specifically, lands acreage transition to switchgrass in the Midwest of the United States, across 50 counties in 3 states (Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado). We propose a multi-criteria site suitability framework, to determine the potential acreage and production for switchgrass, at the field level. Site selection criteria span agronomic and ecosystem services such as previous land cover, crop rotation, soil water holding capacity, crop productivity, field efficiency, topography, soil organic matter, soil leaching propensity, distance to surface water bodies, and soil erosivity. Efficient agricultural field selection for dedicated energy crops field allocation is critical to evaluate biomass resource availability, and it is our position that estimation at the field level would provide a more accurate and useful estimation to support an emerging bioeconomy. Using field suitability scores and county-level assessments, we model land allocation decision for energy crop in the future, estimating the spatial distribution of dynamics of energy crop adoption with priority to fields scoring the highest. Additionally, compared with POLYSYS results from the report mentioned above, our method shows good performance overall, with about 2% and 1.2% of difference in switchgrass acreage allocation and crop production, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

AeDES: a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for environmental suitability of Aedes-borne disease transmission

Aedes-borne diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, are responsible for more than 50 million infections worldwide every year, with an overall increase of 30-fold in the last 50 years, mainly due to city population growth, more frequent travels and ecological changes. In the United States of America, the vast majority of Aedes-borne infections are imported from endemic regions by travelers, who can become new sources of mosquito infection upon their return home if the exposed population is susceptible to the disease, and if suitable environmental conditions for the mosquitoes and the virus are present. Since the susceptibility of the human population can be determined via periodic monitoring campaigns, the environmental suitability for the presence of mosquitoes and viruses becomes one of the most important pieces of information for decision makers in the health sector. We present a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for Aedes-borne diseases’ environmental suitability (AeDES) of transmission in the conterminous United States and transboundary regions, using calibrated ento-epidemiological models, climate models and temperature observations. After analyzing the seasonal predictive skill of AeDES, we briefly consider the recent Zika epidemic, and the compound effects of the current Central American dengue outbreak happening during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, to illustrate how a combination of tailored deterministic and probabilistic forecasts can inform key prevention and control strategies .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Arroyo Mocho Habitat Suitability Assessment for Sensitive Reptiles, Amphibians, and Fish

Sequoia Ecological Consulting, Inc. (Sequoia) has prepared this habitat suitability assessment for the purpose of assessing current habitat suitability and evaluating the potential presence of special-status species at and near the Arroyo Mocho Pumping Station (Arroyo Mocho). The Study Area is located 7.5 miles southeast of the City of Livermore in Alameda County, California. Our analysis provides a description of presence and habitat suitability for special-status reptiles, amphibians, and fish within the Study Area and identifies potential conservation measures. Special-status animals are designated by the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW). This analysis focuses on California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense), California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii), foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii), western pond turtle (Emys marmorata), Alameda whipsnake (Masticophis lateralis euryxanthus), Coast horned lizard (Phrynosoma blainvilli), and central California coast distinct population segment (DPS) steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), per the request of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Suitable Geologic Carbon Storage Sites Across Utah

Utah has a wealth of potential geological reservoirs for carbon dioxide storage (CS) and a long history of geologic research resulting in an abundance of available subsurface data to evaluate CS potential. Reservoirs may include sandstone, carbonate, and basalt; these rock types are plentiful in Utah’s subsurface and the complex Phanerozoic history throughout the state requires evaluating each geologic region individually for promising reservoir-seal pairs for CO2 storage. Classifying Utah by geologic provinces (or “geo-regions”) allows for customized thinking about suitable CS reservoir and seal distribution, CO2 point sources, land use, and existing infrastructure. Preliminary results from this study highlight the geologic CS potential across 15 geo-regions. Four regions stand out as having high CS potential: the Uinta Basin, San Rafael Swell, Paradox Basin, and the southern Basin and Range Province. The Uinta Basin and San Rafael Swell geo-regions are well suited for CS and have several projects ongoing to evaluate Cretaceous Frontier and Naturita Formations, Jurassic Navajo Sandstone and Entrada Sandstone, and Permian Weber Sandstone reservoir units that lie beneath robust sealing units like the ~5000-ft-thick Mancos Shale and Carmel Formation. Reservoirs such as the Navajo and Weber Sandstones have been demonstrated to be suitable reservoirs through a long history of oil and gas exploration in Utah. New areas of interest include the southern Basin and Range in southwest Utah, where the Jurassic Navajo Sandstone is overlain by the sealing Carmel Formation at suitable depths (>3000 ft), and has good porosities based on outcrop analogue data. Just to the north (e.g., central Basin and Range), legacy wells and 2D seismic data show possible salt and subsurface basalt flows that may provide additional possible CS reservoirs and seals. This geo-region also has the advantage of being coupled with geothermal energy resources that may be used to power burgeoning direct air capture technologies. In the Paradox Basin of southeastern Utah, the Leadville Limestone is a potential storage reservoir beneath the thick (4000–5000 ft), salt-bearing Pennsylvanian Paradox Formation. Although the northern and western parts of Utah offer CS potential, these areas typically contain less infrastructure and subsurface penetrations, creating geologic uncertainty associated with subsurface seals and reservoirs due to a lack of data. Overall, this statewide assessment and ranking is the first step to aid in evaluating CS potential across Utah and provides a foundation for future research in the most favorable locations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the suitability of sites near Pine Island Glacier for subglacial bedrock drilling aimed at detecting Holocene retreat–readvance

Abstract. Unambiguous identification of past episodes of ice sheet thinning below the modern surface and grounding line retreat inboard of present requires recovery and exposure dating of subglacial bedrock. Such efforts are needed to understand the significance and potential future reversibility of ongoing and projected change in Antarctica. Here we evaluate the suitability for subglacial bedrock drilling of sites in the Hudson Mountains, which are located in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica. We use an ice sheet model and field data – geological observations, glaciological observations and bedrock samples from nunataks, and ground-penetrating radar from subglacial ridges – to rate each site against four key criteria: (i) presence of ridges extending below the ice sheet, (ii) likelihood of increased exposure of those ridges if the grounding line was inboard of present, (iii) suitability of bedrock for drilling and geochemical analysis, and (iv) accessibility for aircraft and drilling operations. Our results demonstrate that although no site in the Hudson Mountains is perfect for this study when assessed against all criteria, the accessibility, N–S orientation and basaltic bedrock lithology of Winkie Nunatak's southernmost ridge (74.86° S, 99.77° W) make it a feasible site both for drilling and subsequent cosmogenic nuclide analysis. Furthermore, the ridge is strewn with glacial erratics at all elevations, providing valuable constraints on its early Holocene deglacial history. Based on our experiences during this study, we conclude with a series of recommendations for assessing site suitability for future bedrock drilling campaigns. We emphasise the importance of consulting a range of expertise prior to drilling and ensuring that sufficient field reconnaissance is undertaken (including obtaining detailed grids of radar survey data and bedrock samples).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Screening for Psychopathology Versus Selecting for Suitability: Ethical and Legal Considerations

The current system for psychological selection of U.S. astronauts is divided into two phases: The select-out phase and the select-in phase. The select-out phase screens candidates for psychopathology; candidates who do not meet the baseline psychiatric requirements are immediately disqualified. The select-in phase assesses candidates for suitability to fly short- and long-duration missions. Suitability ratings are given for ten factors found to be critical for short and long-duration space missions. There are qualitative differences in the purpose of the two phases (select-in vs. select-out) and in the nature of the information collected in each phase. Furthermore, there are different logistic, ethical, and legal issues related to a medical or psychiatric (select-out) screening versus a suitability (select-in) psychological screening process . The purpose of this presentation is to contrast the ethical and legal environment surrounding the select-out and select-in phases of the psychological selection system. Issues such as data collection, data storage and management, the federal statutory environment, and personnel training will be discussed. Further, a summary of the new standards for psychological testing is presented, along with their implications for astronaut selection.

Holland, Albert W.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Western Montana Ecological Forecasting: Modeling Habitat Suitability of Mustelid Species to Guide Detection Dog Surveys for Contaminants Monitoring, via Collected Scats in River Systems of Western Montana

Environmental contaminants are becoming increasingly prevalent in riverine ecosystems. The status of contaminants in western Montana’s relatively pristine river systems is largely unknown. Monitoring for heavy metals, brominated flame-retardants (BFRs), and pharmaceuticals is important due to their negative effects on ecosystems. Exposure to these contaminants can have significant endocrine, neurological, and reproductive effects. Contaminants easily travel up the food chain and bioaccumulate in apex predators. As predators with a largely aquatic diet, American mink (Mustela vison) and North American river otter (Lontra canadensis) serve as reliable indicator species of environmental health and the status of contaminants. Analysis of scat from these species is a noninvasive method to measure contaminant levels, and detection dogs from Working Dogs for Conservation (WD4C) have been used to locate these scat samples. To aid in the search of these samples, habitat suitability models were created for mink and otter for the years 2013-2020 and projected to 2040 using the random forest algorithm in the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM). Predictor variable data were acquired from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM IMERG), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP). Within these models, the most important variable for mink and otter habitat was distance to river. Suitable habitat also corresponded with emergent herbaceous land cover and deeper river locations. These habitat suitability models will inform sampling site section for further contaminant analysis.

Anna Winter↗