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At least 19 records

Feedback density and causal complexity of simulation model structure

Measures of simulation model complexity generally focus on outputs; we propose measuring the complexity of a model’s causal structure to gain insight into its fundamental character. This article introduces tools for measuring causal complexity. First, we introduce a method for developing a model’s causal structure diagram, which characterises the causal interactions present in the code. Causal structure diagrams facilitate comparison of simulation models, including those from different paradigms. Next, we develop metrics for evaluating a model’s causal complexity using its causal structure diagram. We discuss cyclomatic complexity as a measure of the intricacy of causal structure and introduce two new metrics that incorporate the concept of feedback, a fundamental component of causal structure. The first new metric introduced here is feedback density, a measure of the cycle-based interconnectedness of causal structure. The second metric combines cyclomatic complexity and feedback density into a comprehensive causal complexity measure. Finally, we demonstrate these complexity metrics on simulation models from multiple paradigms and discuss potential uses and interpretations. These tools enable direct comparison of models across paradigms and provide a mechanism for measuring and discussing complexity based on a model’s fundamental assumptions and design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Graph-Based Similarity Metrics for Comparing Simulation Model Causal Structures

The causal structure of a simulation is a major determinant of both its character and behavior, yet most methods we use to compare simulations focus only on simulation outputs. We introduce a method that combines graphical representation with information theoretic metrics to quantitatively compare the causal structures of models. The method applies to agent-based simulations as well as system dynamics models and facilitates comparison within and between types. Comparing models based on their causal structures can illuminate differences in assumptions made by the models, allowing modelers to (1) better situate their models in the context of existing work, including highlighting novelty, (2) explicitly compare conceptual theory and assumptions to simulated theory and assumptions, and (3) investigate potential causal drivers of divergent behavior between models. We demonstrate the method by comparing two epidemiology models at different levels of aggregation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Comparison of structurally diverse simulation models for prediction of epidemic outcomes caused by a long-distance dispersed pathogen

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) pathogens pose substantial challenges for epidemic control due to their ability to generate new infection foci at great distances. While various modeling approaches have been developed to understand and manage such outbreaks, little work has compared how models of different structures behave under shared conditions. Here, in this study, we compare four structurally distinct epidemiological models — EPIMUL, GEMF, PoPS, and Warwick — each adapted to simulate the spread of wheat stripe rust (WSR), a wind-dispersed LDD pathogen, under identical epidemiological parameters and dispersal kernel. Using data from a controlled field experiment, we evaluate the ability of each model to replicate disease prevalence under nine intervention scenarios that vary in timing and culling area. While the models differ substantially in design — ranging from spatial grid-based to network-based and raster-based frameworks — the shared dispersal kernel allowed for close alignment in their predictions. All models accurately captured general epidemic trends, particularly the strong effect of early intervention on disease suppression. We qualitatively compared their behavioral responses across scenarios and also evaluated an ensemble prediction by averaging across model outputs. Our findings highlight how integrating shared epidemiological components into distinct modeling frameworks can improve consistency and accuracy, while reinforcing the importance of early culling in managing LDD pathogen outbreaks.

Dispersal kernel↗

Identification of time-varying structural dynamic systems - An artificial intelligence approach

An application of the artificial intelligence-derived methodologies of heuristic search and object-oriented programming to the problem of identifying the form of the model and the associated parameters of a time-varying structural dynamic system is presented in this paper. Possible model variations due to changes in boundary conditions or configurations of a structure are organized into a taxonomy of models, and a variant of best-first search is used to identify the model whose simulated response best matches that of the current physical structure. Simulated model responses are verified experimentally. An output-error approach is used in a discontinuous model space, and an equation-error approach is used in the parameter space. The advantages of the AI methods used, compared with conventional programming techniques for implementing knowledge structuring and inheritance, are discussed. Convergence conditions and example problems have been discussed. In the example problem, both the time-varying model and its new parameters have been identified when changes occur.

Glass, B. J.↗

Time-Varying Changes in the Simulated Structure of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation (BDC) over the past 55 years. When trends are computed over the past 55 years, the BDC accelerates throughout the stratosphere, consistent with previous modeling results. However, over the second half of the simulations (i.e., since the late 1980s), the model simulates structural changes in the BDC as the temporal evolution of the BDC varies between regions in the stratosphere. In the mid-stratosphere in the midlatitude Northern Hemisphere, the BDC does not accelerate in the ensemble mean of our simulations despite increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and warming sea surface temperatures, and it even decelerates in one ensemble member. This deceleration is reminiscent of changes inferred from satellite instruments and in situ measurements. In contrast, the BDC in the lower stratosphere continues to accelerate. The main forcing agents for the recent slowdown in the mid-stratosphere appear to be declining ozone-depleting substance (ODS) concentrations and the timing of volcanic eruptions. Changes in both mean age of air and the tropical upwelling of the residual circulation indicate a lack of recent acceleration. We therefore clarify that the statement that is often made that climate models simulate a decreasing age throughout the stratosphere only applies over long time periods and is not necessarily the case for the past 25 years, when most tracer measurements were taken.

stratospheric ozone↗

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Fluid-Structure Interaction Simulations Of Supersonic Parachute Inflation: Model Sensitivities

Fluid-structure interaction simulations have the potential to accelerate the certification process of parachute systems for interplanetary robotic exploration missions while helping to mitigate risks by covering a wider range of scenarios than can be flight tested. The Launch, Ascent, and Vehicle Aerodynamics team is working toward actualizing this potential by further developing the capability to perform such fluid-structure interaction simulations and validating it with the best supersonic parachute flight test data available. We perform several simulations of the Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research Experiments’ third flight test (SR03) where we independently vary several parameters to determine their sensitivity on the predicted drag. We investigate sensitivity of the drag to the added mass of the confluence fitting, to the effective porosity, to how the gore seams are modeled, to viscous effects, and to deceleration. Modeling the added mass of the confluence fitting has virtually no impact on the drag, but is worthwhile to include to better match the overall system’s mass, which is important for the simulations with deceleration. Parachute drag is only marginally sensitive to porosity and viscous effects. Maximum parachute drag is most sensitive to how the gore seams are modeled, causing a nearly 20% drop when they are modeled as stiffer radials, and to deceleration, causing an additional 10% reduction. Results show improved agreement with flight test measurements when the FSI model is closest to the as-built configuration and physics experienced in flight: with the confluence fitting, viscous effects, the gore seams modeled as stiff radials, and including deceleration.

ESM↗

Modeling and simulation challenges for softgoods in space deployable structures

This paper examines modeling and simulation challenges for deployable spacecraft structures with softgood components. Previous studies highlighted the numerical challenges due to the mixture of high stiffness and low stiffness contact in this class of structures. This paper examines the use of the commercial LS-DYNA nonlinear finite element code on a set of relevant benchmark problems.

Mobrem, Mehran↗

Effects of a simulated microgravity model on cell structure and function in rat testis and epididymis

The effect of simulated microgravity on the structure and function of the testis and epididymis cells was investigated in rats subjected to 7 days of tail suspension. Results of a histological examination revealed presence of disorganized seminiferous tubules and accumulation of large multinucleated cells and spermatids in the lumen of the epididymis. In addition, decreases in the content of testis protein and in testosterone levels in the testis, the interstitial fluid, and the epididymis were observed.

Hadley, Jill A.↗

An Integrated Simulation of Multiple-Pass U-10Mo Alloy Hot Rolling and Static Recrystallization

To achieve a desired microstructure and minimize the thickness variation in rolled foils, researchers must understand the effects of foil fabrication process variables on microstructure evolution. We developed an integrated simulation of deformation and recrystallization that employs the finite element method (FEM) and the kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) Potts model, respectively, to investigate microstructure evolution during multiple-pass hot rolling and heat treatment in polycrystalline U-10Mo fuel. Scanning electron microscopy and electron backscatter diffraction images of microstructures were directly used as input in FEM calculation of deformation, and the calculated strains were used to determine the driving force of nucleation and growth of recrystallized grains in the Potts model. Grain structures predicted by the Potts model were used to update the grain structure and material properties for FEM. Simulation alternated between FEM and the Potts model to simulate grain structure evolution during multiple rolling and heat treatments. The initial model parameters were determined by benchmarking the recrystallization kinetics against experimental data. Then, the model was applied to predict the grain structure evolution. Results showed that our model can capture the coupling between deformation and recrystallization and can quantitatively reproduce the observed U-10Mo recrystallization and grain growth kinetics. The simulation results demonstrated that the developed model can predict U-10Mo grain structures as a function of initial microstructure and foil fabrication parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effects of Al:Si and (Al+Na):Si Ratios on the Properties of the International Simple Glass, Part II: Structure

High-alumina containing high-level waste (HLW) will be vitrified at the Waste Treatment Plant at the Hanford Site. The resulting glasses, high in alumina, will have distinct composition-structure-property (C-S-P) relationships compared to previously studied HLW glasses. These C-S-P relationships determine the processability and product durability of glasses and therefore must be understood. The main purpose of this study is to understand the detailed structural changes caused by Al:Si and (Al+Na):Si substitutions in a simplified nuclear waste model glass (ISG, International Simple Glass) by combining experimental structural characterizations and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The structures of these two series of glasses were characterized by neutron total scattering and 27Al, 23Na, 29Si, and 11B solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Additionally, MD simulations were used to generate atomistic structural models of the borosilicate glasses and simulation results were validated by the experimental structural data. Short-range (e.g., bond distance, coordination number, etc.) and medium-range (e.g., oxygen speciation, network connectivity, polyhedral linkages) structural features of the borosilicate glasses were systematically investigated as a function of the degree of substitution. The results show that bond distance and coordination number of the cation-oxygen pairs are relatively insensitive to Al:Si and (Al+Na):Si substitutions with the exception of the B-O pair. Additionally, the Al:Si substitution results in an increase of tri-bridging oxygen species, while (Al+Na):Si substitution creates non-bridging oxygen species. Charge compensator preferences were found for Si-[NBO] (Na+), [3]B-[NBO] (Na+), [4]B (mostly Ca2+), [4]Al (nearly equally split Na+ and Ca2+), and [6]Zr (mostly Ca2+). The network former-BO-network former linkages preferences were also tabulated; Si-O-Al and Al-O-Al were preferred at the expense of lower Si-O-[3]B and [3]B-O-[3]B linkages. These results provide insights on the structural origins of property changes such as glass transition temperature caused by the substitutions, providing a basis for future improvements of theoretical and computer simulation models.

Lu, Xiaonan↗

The solar simulation test of the ITALSAT thermal structural model

The ITALSAT structural/thermal model (STM) was submitted to a solar simulation test in order to verify the spacecraft thermal design and the thermal mathematical model which will be used to predict the on orbit temperatures. The STM was representative of the flight model in terms of configuration, structures, appendages and thermal hardware; dissipating dummy units were used to simulate the electronic units. The test consisted of the main phases: on station (beginning of life), on station (end of life), and transfer orbit. Preliminary results indicate that the test performances were satisfactory. The spacecraft measured temperatures were up to 15 degrees higher than the predicted ones. This imposes a careful correlation analysis in order to have reliable flight temperature predictions.

Giommi, M.↗

Monthly averages of ED2 model simulations initialized with airborne lidar structure, Jan 1981-Dec 2018, Brazilian Amazon

Deforestation and forest degradation (selective logging, fires, fragmentation) have impacted nearly 40% of the original extent of the Brazilian Amazon, and have markedly impacted forest structure across the region. To date, few studies analysed how shifts in forest structure from degradation influence the forest sensitivity to climate extremes, because of the complex interactions between forest structure and micro-environmental conditions. To address this knowledge gap, we carried out a series of simulations across the Brazilian Amazon using the Ecosystem Demography Model (ED2), using observed forest structure derived from 541 airborne lidar transects (375 ha each) and two scenarios representing forest recovery and expansion of degradation to investigate how shifts in forest structure impact ecosystem function under near-average and extreme climate conditions, as part of the manuscript Longo et al 2025 "Degradation and Deforestation Increase the Sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to Climate Extremes". This dataset provides the output results from the ED2 model simulations for the three simulations at monthly time scales, in NetCDF format. For all simulations, we used bias-corrected hourly reanalyses (WFDE5) for most meteorological drivers, except for precipitation, which was obtained from CHIRPS. The meteorological drivers used in the study span 38 years (Jan 1981–Dec 2018). The output results correspond to the last 38 years of simulation (one full cycle of meteorological drivers), in which ED2 simulations used static stand structure (i.e., the forest structure was held constant). The following files are provided:ED2_emean_Global_R004_BrAmaz_s1c0t0l0f0.nc. This corresponds to the Control simulation. The forest structure was obtained from the airborne lidar.ED2_emean_Global_R005_BrAmaz_s1c0t1l1f0.nc. This corresponds to the Degraded simulation. The forest structure was obtained from a spin-up simulation initialized with airborne lidar and a scenario that expanded deforestation and selective logging across the Amazon.ED2_emean_Global_R006_BrAmaz_s1c0t1l0f0.nc. This corresponds to the Recovery simulation. The forest structure was obtained from a spin-up simulation initialized with airborne lidar and a scenario that completely halted deforestation and degradation, allowing degraded forests to recover for 38 years.We also provide file ED2_zones_R004_BrAmaz_s1c0t0l0f0.nc, which classifies each grid cell into zones used in the reference manuscript: 1: Southeast. 2: South. 3: West. 4: Central. 5: Northeast. 6: North. 7: Northwest". Index 0 corresponds to grid cells excluded from sub-region analyses because they were dominated by flooded forests, deforestation, and naturally non-forest vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling and Simulation of Semiconductor Quantum Well Structures and Lasers

In this talk I will cover two aspects of modeling and simulation efforts at NASA Ames Research Center. In the quantum well structure simulation, we typically start from the quantum mechanical calculation of the quantum well structures for the confined/and unconfined eigen states and functions. A bandstructure calculation of the k*p type is then performed for the confined valence states. This information is then used to computer the optical gain and refractive index of the quantum well structures by solving the linearized multiband semiconductor Bloch equations with the many-body interactions included. In our laser simulation, we typically solve the envelope equations for the laser field in space-time domain, coupled with a reduced set of material equations using the microscopic calculation of the first step. Finally I will show some examples of both aspects of simulation and modeling.

Ning, Cun-Zheng↗

A Model for Simulating the Response of Aluminum Honeycomb Structure to Transverse Loading

A 1-dimensional material model was developed for simulating the transverse (thickness-direction) loading and unloading response of aluminum honeycomb structure. The model was implemented as a user-defined material subroutine (UMAT) in the commercial finite element analysis code, ABAQUS(Registered TradeMark)/Standard. The UMAT has been applied to analyses for simulating quasi-static indentation tests on aluminum honeycomb-based sandwich plates. Comparison of analysis results with data from these experiments shows overall good agreement. Specifically, analyses of quasi-static indentation tests yielded accurate global specimen responses. Predicted residual indentation was also in reasonable agreement with measured values. Overall, this simple model does not involve a significant computational burden, which makes it more tractable to simulate other damage mechanisms in the same analysis.

Ratcliffe, James G.↗