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14 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation-based assessment on stochastic load scheduling for building cooling systems

Here, to fill knowledge gaps related to stochastic load scheduling, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of the stochastic load scheduling for building cooling systems. Specifically, we studied the common uncertain variables in the load scheduling process for building cooling systems and categorized those variables based on their dynamic patterns. We then developed a generic stochastic load scheduling framework and applied it to building cooling systems that served a simulated community. This community consists of 100 heterogeneous houses and serves as a virtual testbed for evaluating the performance of stochastic load scheduling. In this evaluation, we considered representatives of uncertain variables with different dynamic patterns and included 100 realizations of the considered uncertainty in the evaluation to better catch the probability distribution of the control performance. The evaluation results suggest that deterministic load scheduling can reduce the operating energy cost by 18% but its performance can be affected by uncertainty. Stochastic load scheduling can further decrease the operating energy cost under uncertainty compared to deterministic load scheduling. We also found that the effectiveness of stochastic load scheduling in handling uncertainty is not directly associated with the number of uncertainty scenarios that are considered in its formulation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic scheduling for commercial building cooling systems: considering uncertainty in zone temperature prediction

Here, this paper presents the first attempt to address the uncertainty in zone temperature prediction with stochastic optimization. The uncertain zone temperature is a process uncertainty and has not been considered in the existing stochastic optimization for building control. To fill this gap, we proposed a novel formulation of stochastic optimization to handle process uncertainty in building control. Specifically, we first examined the accuracy of a typical linear model for predicting zone temperature. We then formulated the scheduling of the building cooling system as a stochastic optimization problem over a 24-hour look-ahead period to minimize the electricity cost of the studied building cooling system. After that, we applied the proposed stochastic load scheduling (SLS) to a direct expansion (DX) cooling system that serves a medium office building. Through simulation with a detailed building energy simulation software, EnergyPlus, we evaluated the operational cost and the thermal comfort compared with a deterministic load scheduling. The operation cost of scheduling was found to vary with the level of zone temperature prediction uncertainty. The proposed SLS can mitigate the impacts of uncertain zone temperature predictions on both operational cost and thermal comfort. The evaluation results indicate that the proposed SLS works better when the uncertainty level is more significant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tri-level hybrid interval-stochastic optimal scheduling for flexible residential loads under GAN-assisted multiple uncertainties

Various building loads, such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioners (HVACs), electric water heaters (EWHs), and electric vehicles (EVs), can introduce opportunities for improving the flexibility of electricity consumption while satisfying the needs of building owners as well as benefiting the resilience of distribution system. To utilize such flexibility, a tri-level distribution market framework is established, including residential consumers, load aggregators (LAs), and the distribution system operator (DSO). In this work, the uncertainties from all three levels are considered. The random consumption behavior at the consumer level is modeled as a Gaussian noise that is also aggregated and transmitted to the LA level. The weather temperature in the LA level is forecasted as an interval, and the photovoltaic (PV) power in the market-clearing level is modeled by a set of power scenarios generated by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Then, a hybrid interval-stochastic programming is proposed to transform the uncertain problems in the first two levels into deterministic ones. For real-time implementations, a rolling horizon optimization (RHO) scheme is employed to continuously optimize the power consumption based on the latest operating information. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 69-bus system validate the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty modeling strategies and the RHO scheme.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Look-Ahead Commitment: A Case Study in MISO

This paper introduces the Stochastic Look Ahead Commitment (SLAC) software prototyped and tested for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) look ahead commitment process. SLAC can incorporate hundreds of wind, load, and net scheduled interchange (NSI) uncertainty scenarios. It uses a progressive hedging method to solve a novel two-stage stochastic unit commitment. The first stage commitment decisions, made only for those generators whose decision to commit or not in each time period cannot be deferred, can cover the uncertainties within the next three hours. The second stage includes both the dispatch for each of the scenarios and the commitment decisions that can be deferred. Study results on 15 MISO production days show that SLAC may bring economic and reliability benefits under uncertainty.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Microgrid Scheduling With Chance‐Constrained Resilience Consideration

Traditionally, it is assumed that microgrids transition seamlessly from grid‐connected operation to islanded mode in the event of sudden main grid outages. In reality, the islanding process, especially unintentional islanding, is rarely seamless. Instead, it is subject to voltage and frequency fluctuations caused by the instantaneous disconnection of the point of common coupling (PCC) switch, variations in loads and renewable generation output and even the protection tripping of distributed energy resources (DERs). To mitigate these fluctuations and facilitate a smooth islanding process, we propose a stochastic microgrid scheduling model that incorporates chance‐constrained resilience measures. Specifically, the resilience measure is defined as the probability of successful islanding (PSI), that is, the probability that a microgrid can mitigate the generation‐demand imbalance caused by the disconnection of the PCC switch, variations in load and renewable generation and DER tripping. This measure is modelled using chance constraints. Unlike existing reliability and resilience indices, which typically neglect the possibility of microgrid/DER failure under extreme events and assume their survival while primarily focussing on reducing impact duration or magnitude, the proposed PSI‐based framework explicitly addresses microgrid and DER survival during the islanding transition. The formulated nonlinear chance constraints are approximated using a multiinterval approach and equivalently represented as a mixed‐integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. Case study results validate the proposed method, showing that the PSI estimation error is reduced to less than 8%, compared to approximately 28% with existing methods. Various sensitivity analyses on the DER tripping rate and PSI settings were performed to validate the robustness of the proposed method. In particular, the necessity of accounting for DER tripping in the PSI calculation was demonstrated.

chance constrained optimization↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Secure and Adaptive Hierarchical Multi-Timescale Framework for Resilient Load Restoration Using a Community Microgrid

Distribution system integrated community microgrids (CMGs) can partake in restoring loads during extended duration outages. At such times, the CMGs are challenged with limited resource availability, absence of robust grid support, and heightened demand-supply uncertainty. Here, this paper proposes a secure and adaptive three-stage hierarchical multi-timescale framework for scheduling and real-time (RT) dispatch of CMGs with hybrid PV systems to address these challenges. The framework enables the CMG to dynamically expand its boundary to support the neighboring grid sections and is adaptive to the changing forecast error impacts. The first stage solves a stochastic extended duration scheduling (EDS) problem to obtain referral plans for optimal resource rationing. The intermediate near-real-time (NRT) scheduling stage updates the EDS schedule closer to the dispatch time using new obtained forecasts, followed by the RT dispatch stage. To make the decisions more secure and robust against forecast errors, a novel concept called delayed recourse is designed. The approach is evaluated via numerical simulations on a modified IEEE 123-bus system and validated using OpenDSS and hardware-in-loop simulations. The results show superior performance in maximizing load supply and continuous secure distribution network operation under different operating scenarios.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Delivery-Risk-Aware Flexibility Scheduling and Dispatch for Aggregated Flexible Loads

Flexible loads like smart thermostats and water heaters can shift energy consumption and provide flexibility to the grid. However, this flexibility is dependent on occupant behavior and can lead to delivery risk, which causes utilities and grid operations to consider them as unreliable for purposes of grid operation. To date, they have not been well integrated into wholesale electricity markets or ancillary service offerings. With proper consideration of uncertainty and risk, these resources can be one of the most cost-effective sources of flexibility. This work uses stochastic optimization to quantify and bid flexibility from a fleet of flexible resources while considering their delivery risk.

DER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive PID Gain Scheduling Control for Hydropower Turbine Using Neural CDE and Stochastic Distribution Shaping

This paper introduces a gain-scheduling PID controller design strategy for hydroturbine frequency control mode. This scheme first uses real data to learn the nonlinear dynamics of the hydroturbine using neural controlled differential equations and then perturbs the obtained nonlinear system at different equilibrium points, based on which a static output feedback adaptive dynamic programming algorithm is then used to optimize the PID gains for each equilibrium point. Moreover, a continuous-time version of stochastic distribution control is proposed to further fine-tune the optimized PID gains. Finally, the controller is obtained by implementing linear interpolation between the optimized PID control gains. The simulation results show that the proposed gain-scheduling PID controller can control a larger range of operation points compared with the given fixed PID controller and the baseline method. Compared with the given fixed PID controller, the proposed gain-scheduling PID controller can regulate hydroturbine frequency against disturbances induced by power-load variation with over 50% less overshoot for some operation points.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fuel Property Effects on Stochastic Preignition Events During Engine Load Transitions

Stochastic preignition (SPI) is an abnormal combustion phenomenon that can cause catastrophic engine damage. There have been several proposed mechanisms of SPI, where a uniform source is still not certain, however, SPI tendencies have been shown to be influenced by engine operating conditions, oil composition, engine age, and fuel chemical and physical properties. Laboratory research and testing for SPI propensity is challenging given the stochastic nature of events, as well as the potential for significant degradation of the engine platform and measuring equipment over time. Thus, SPI specific experiments are generally conducted under either sustained or cyclic patterning of steady-state operating conditions to avoid the influence of transient engine boundary conditions on test parameters of interest (e.g. oil additive package, fuel properties, engine speed/load, etc.). In this work a cyclically varying SPI test sequence involves a 5 min engine warmup period at a low engine load of around 4 bar gross indicated mean effective pressure (IMEPg), followed by a transition to high load (~20 bar IMEPg) at a constant 2000 rev/min engine speed for a total of 25 min. This individual test sequence load schedule is then sequentially repeated 10 times to generate significant statistical data for analysis. This work examines the influence of fuel chemical and physical properties on SPI tendency during the unsteady portion of the 10-cycle sequence (the first 5 min of the high load operation in each sequence of the loading cycle) which has been discarded from previous analyses due to the uncertainty in engine operating and thermal boundary conditions. Results from this analysis suggest an increasing trend in the ratio of SPI events during the unsteady test period relative to the steady test period with increasing fuel Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), implying differences in uncontrolled ignition source terms, possibly from, fuel wall interactions and retention during the load transition phase of the test.

Splitter, Derek [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000174044047)↗
DOE OSTI2025

EVI-EnSitePy (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure – Energy Estimation and Site Optimization Tool in Python) [EVI-X Modeling Suite] [SWR-25-07]

EVI-EnSitePy is a comprehensive agent-based tool designed for the analysis and design of high-power charging sites, encompassing a wide array of site agents including Electric Vehicles (EVs), chargers, energy storage units (ESS), renewable energy resources (DER), and loads. This versatile tool offers diverse functionalities and a modular modeling approach, allowing detailed configuration of agents based on power ratings, port numbers, energy capacities, demand requirements, charger interfaces, and flexibility to customize the tool for project specific goals. By simulating agent interactions and employing various metrics, EVI-EnSitePy enables the assessment of site performance, exploration of energy management systems (EMS), and implementation of innovative EV charging policies. Utilizing EV charge schedules and arrival states, the tool performs thorough charging site simulations, with outputs consisting of agent and site-level power profiles and statistical metrics. Employing a tree graph structure, EVI-EnSitePy supports nested site structures and power distribution modeling. The tool's ability to generate charging schedules deterministically or via stochastic analysis further enhances its versatility. Through its features and capabilities, EVI-EnSitePy offers a powerful platform for informed decision-making in the realm of high-power charging site design and operation.

Jackson, Derek [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2022

How Can Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasts Be Used to Lower Costs and Improve Reliability in Power Spot Markets? A Review and Application to Flexiramp Requirements

Net load uncertainty in electricity spot markets is rapidly growing. There are five general approaches by which system operators and market participants can use probabilistic forecasts of wind, solar, and load to help manage this uncertainty. These include operator situation awareness, resource risk hedging, reserves procurement, definition of contingencies, and explicit stochastic optimization. We review these approaches, and then provide a case study in which a method for using probabilistic solar forecasts to define needs for reserves is developed and evaluated. The case study has three parts. First, we describe building blocks for enhancing the Watt-Sun solar forecasting system to produce probabilistic irradiance and power forecasts. Second, relationships between Watt-Sun forecasts for multiple sites in California and the system's need for flexible ramp capability (flexiramp) are defined by machine learning and statistical methods. Third, the performance of present methods to defining flexiramp requirements, which are not conditioned on weather and renewables forecasts, is compared with that of probabilistic solar forecast-based requirements, using a multi-timescale production costing model with an 1820-bus representation of the WECC power system. Significant potential savings in fuel and flexiramp procurement costs from using solar-informed reserve requirements are found.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗