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Relative values assigned to double mistakes and changed iteratively. Method for statistical analysis of threshold detection saves experimental time by enabling use of same set of measurements with respect to two thresholds. Accounts for double mistakes, unresolvable by threshold-detection technique.
This article describes an investigation of a statistical hypothesis testing method for detecting changes in the characteristics of an observed time series. The work is motivated by the need for practical automated methods for on-line monitoring of Deep Space Network (DSN) equipment to detect failures and changes in behavior. In particular, on-line monitoring of the motor current in a DSN 34-m beam waveguide (BWG) antenna is used as an example. The algorithm is based on a measure of the information theoretic distance between two autoregressive models: one estimated with data from a dynamic reference window and one estimated with data from a sliding reference window. The Hinkley cumulative sum stopping rule is utilized to detect a change in the mean of this distance measure, corresponding to the detection of a change in the underlying process. The basic theory behind this two-model test is presented, and the problem of practical implementation is addressed, examining windowing methods, model estimation, and detection parameter assignment. Results from the five fault-transition simulations are presented to show the possible limitations of the detection method, and suggestions for future implementation are given.
Earth-observing satellites provide global observations of many geophysical variables. As these variables are derived from measured radiances, the underlying radiance data are the most reliable sources of information for change detection. Here, we identify statistically significant trends in the color and spatial texture of the Earth as viewed from multiple directions from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), which has been sampling the angular distribution of scattered sunlight since 2000. Globally, our results show that the Earth has been appearing relatively bluer (up to 1.6 % per decade from both nadir and oblique views) and smoother (up to 1.5 % per decade only from oblique views) over the past 15 years. The magnitude of the global blueing trends is comparable to that of uncertainties in radiometric calibration stability. Regional shifts in color and texture, which are significantly larger than global means, are observed, particularly over polar regions, along the boundaries of the subtropical highs, the tropical western Pacific, Southwestern Asia, and Australia. We demonstrate that the large regional trends cannot be explained either by uncertainties in radiometric calibration or variability in total or spectral solar irradiance; hence, they reflect changes internal to the Earths climate system. The 15-year-mean true color composites and texture images of the Earth at both nadir and oblique views are also presented for the first time.
This study makes use of time series of methane (CH4/ data from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) to detect whether there were any statistically significant changes of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) within the stratosphere during 1992-2005. The HALOE CH4 profiles are in terms of mixing ratio versus pressure altitude and are binned into latitude zones within the Southern Hemisphere and the Northern Hemisphere. Their separate time series are then analyzed using multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques. The CH4 trend terms for the Northern Hemisphere are significant and positive at 10 N from 50 to 7 hPa and larger than the tropospheric CH4 trends of about 3%decade(exp -1) from 20 to 7 hPa. At 60 N the trends are clearly negative from 20 to 7 hPa. Their combined trends indicate an acceleration of the BDC in the middle stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere during those years, most likely due to changes from the effects of wave activity. No similar significant BDC acceleration is found for the Southern Hemisphere. Trends from HALOE H2O are analyzed for consistency. Their mutual trends with CH4 are anti-correlated qualitatively in the middle and upper stratosphere, where CH4 is chemically oxidized to H2O. Conversely, their mutual trends in the lower stratosphere are dominated by their trends upon entry to the tropical stratosphere. Time series residuals for CH4 in the lower mesosphere also exhibit structures that are anti-correlated in some instances with those of the tracer-like species HCl. Their occasional aperiodic structures indicate the effects of transport following episodic, wintertime wave activity. It is concluded that observed multi-year, zonally averaged distributions of CH4 can be used to diagnose major instances of wave-induced transport in the middle atmosphere and to detect changes in the stratospheric BDC.
Bone loss in microgravity is well documented, but it is difficult to quantify how declines in bone mineral density (BMD) contribute to an astronaut's overall risk of fracture upon return. This study uses a biomechanical approach to assessing hip fracture risk, or Factor of Risk (Phi), which is defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expeditions 1-18 were included in this study (n=25), while crewmembers who flew twice (n=2) were treated as separate subjects. Bone strength was estimated based on an empirical relationship between areal BMD at the hip, as measured by DXA, and failure load, as determined by mechanical testing of cadaver femora. Fall load during a sideways fall was calculated from a previously developed biomechanical model, which takes into account body weight, height, gender, and soft tissue thickness overlying the lateral aspect of the hip that serves to attenuate the impact force. While no statistical analyses have been performed yet, preliminary results show that males in this population have a higher FOR than females, with a post- flight Phi of 0.87 and 0.36, respectively. FOR increases 5.1% from preflight to postflight, while only one subject crossed the fracture "threshold" of Phi = 1, for a total of 2 subjects with a postflight Phi > 1. These results suggest that men may be at greater risk for hip fracture due largely in part to their relatively thin soft tissue padding as compared to women, since soft tissue thickness has the highest correlation (R(exp 2)= .53) with FOR of all subject-specific parameters. Future work will investigate changes in FOR during recovery to see if baseline risk levels are restored upon return to 1-g activity. While dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most commonly used clinical measure of bone health, it fails to provide compartment-specific information that is useful in assessing changes to bone quality as a result of microgravity exposure. Peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) accomplishes this by imaging transverse "slices" of the long bones. This project was a re-analysis of a 90 day bed rest study to determine if changes to cortical and trabecular compartments could be detected in the distal tibia with statistical significance using a new pQCT image analysis method. Nearly all changes in bone mineral density (BMD) and cross sectional area (CSA) measures were seen with statistical significance, with the exception of a change in cortical BMD. Total bone CSA increased by 1.1 % (p =0.01), cortical CSA decreased by - 5.6% (p<0.001) and trabecular CSA increased by 1.76% (p=0.007); the combination of which suggests bone resorption occurred at the endocortical surface in response to mechanical unloading by bed rest. Furthermore, total BMD and trabecular BMD decreased (-3.8%, p=0.001 and -2.8%, p =0.007, respectively), while decreases in cortical BMD failed to reach significance (-1.2%, p=0.07). Given that compartment-specific changes are seen with significance and are likely to influence bone strength, it is recommended that pQCT remain a standard measure used in bed rest because it provides a unique measure by which to better evaluate the efficacy of countermeasures to microgravity-induced bone loss.
The mathematical concept of fractals provides insights into complex anatomic branching structures that lack a characteristic (single) length scale, and certain complex physiologic processes, such as heart rate regulation, that lack a single time scale. Heart rate control is perturbed by alterations in neuro-autonomic function in a number of important clinical syndromes, including sudden cardiac death, congestive failure, cocaine intoxication, fetal distress, space sickness and physiologic aging. These conditions are associated with a loss of the normal fractal complexity of interbeat interval dynamics. Such changes, which may not be detectable using conventional statistics, can be quantified using new methods derived from "chaos theory.".
We have embarked on a mission to detect terrestrial planets. The space mission has been optimized to search for earth-size planets (0.5 to 10 earth masses) in the habitable zone (HZ) of solar-like stars. Given this design, the mission will necessarily be capable of not only detecting Earth analogs, but a wide range of planetary types and characteristics ranging from Mercury-size objects with orbital periods of days to gas-giants in decade long orbits that have undeniable signatures even with only one transit detected. The mission is designed to survey the full range of spectral-type dwarf stars. The approach is to detect the periodic signal of transiting planets. Three or more transits of a star exceeding a combined threshold of eight sigma with a statistically consistent period, brightness change and duration provide a rigorous method of detection. From the relative brightness change the planet size can be calculated. From the period the orbital size can be calculated and its location relative to the HZ determined. Presented here are: the mission goals, the top level system design requirements derived from these goals that drive the flight system design, a number of the trades that have lead to the mission concept, expected photometric performance dependence on stellar brightness and spectral type based on the system 'noise tree' analysis. Updated estimates are presented of the numbers of detectable planets versus size, orbit, stellar spectral type and distances based on a planet frequency hypothesis. The current project schedule and organization are given.
Two dimensions of a dynamical system given by experimental time series are distinguished. Statistical dimension gives a theoretical upper bound for the minimal number of degrees of freedom required to describe the attractor up to the accuracy of the data, taking into account sampling and noise problems. The dynamical dimension is the intrinsic dimension of the attractor and does not depend on the quality of the data. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) provides estimates of the statistical dimension. SSA also describes the main physical phenomena reflected by the data. It gives adaptive spectral filters associated with the dominant oscillations of the system and clarifies the noise characteristics of the data. SSA is applied to four paleoclimatic records. The principal climatic oscillations and the regime changes in their amplitude are detected. About 10 degrees of freedom are statistically significant in the data. Large noise and insufficient sample length do not allow reliable estimates of the dynamical dimension.
The current work describes an experiment in which ERTS-1 digital multispectral scanner data from two times was used to detect change in an urban scene. The computer analysis implementation approach explored here was to register image data from the two times and to subtract the data to form multispectral difference images. The difference imagery was then analyzed using statistical pattern recognition to separate and classify different types of change. Construction was successfully detected.
Lightning and surface rainfall data are presented which were obtained during summer air mass thunderstorms at the NASA Kennedy Space Center. Attention is given to a computer algorithm which employed abrupt changes in the thundercloud electric fields to detect and count flashes. Statistics are given for the occurrence of lightning in 79 storms during the summer seasons of 1976-1980, as well as 28 lightning storms from the summers of 1977 and 1978. The relationship between lightning and rainfall is examined in the case of two thunderstorms whose locations allow a direct comparison of measurements. It is found that when meteorological conditions favor the production of lightning, there is an almost direct proportionality between the total rain volume and the total number of flashes.
The purpose of this paper is to help researchers combine data from different satellites and thus gain new insights into two critical yet poorly understood aspects of anthropogenic climate change, aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects, For this, the paper explores whether cloud information from the Aqua satellite's MODIS instrument can help characterize systematic aerosol changes near clouds by refining earlier perceptions of these changes that were based on the CALIPSO satellite's CALIOP instrument. Similar to a radar but using visible and ncar-infrared light, CALIOP sends out laser pulses and provides aerosol and cloud information along a single line that tracks the satellite orbit by measuring the reflection of its pulses. In contrast, MODIS takes images of reflected sunlight and emitted infrared radiation at several wavelengths, and covers wide areas around the satellite track. This paper analyzes a year-long global dataset covering all ice-free oceans, and finds that MODIS can greatly help the interpretation of CALIOP observations, especially by detecting clouds that lie outside the line observed by CALlPSO. The paper also finds that complications such as differences in view direction or clouds drifting in the 72 seconds that elapse between MODIS and CALIOP observations have only a minor impact. The study also finds that MODIS data helps refine but does not qualitatively alter perceptions of the systematic aerosol changes that were detected in earlier studies using only CALIOP data. It then proposes a statistical approach to account for clouds lying outside the CALIOP track even when MODIS cannot as reliably detect low clouds, for example at night or over ice. Finally, the paper finds that, because of variations in cloud amount and type, the typical distance to clouds in maritime clear areas varies with season and location. The overall median distance to clouds in maritime clear areas around 4-5 km. The fact that half of all clear areas is closer than 5 km to clouds implies that pronounced near-cloud changes in aerosol properties have significant implications for overall clear-sky characteristics, including the radiative impact of aerosols.
It is suggested that a weighting of surface temperature data, using information about the expected level of warming in different seasons and geographical regions and statistical information about the amount of natural variability in surface temperature, can improve the chances of early detection of carbon dioxide concentration-induced climatic warming. A preliminary analysis of the optimal weighting method presented suggests that it is 25 per cent more effective in revealing surface warming than the conventional method, in virtue of the fact that 25 per cent more data must conventionally be analyzed in order to arrive at a similar probability of detection. An approximate calculation suggests that the warming ought to have already been detected, if the only sources of significant surface temperature variability had time scales of less than one year.
The 2-60-keV flux from NGC 4151 has been observed to change by a factor of 2 on a time scale of 1.5 days. No fluctuations in excess of a factor of 3 are detected on time scales less than 4 hours. During a total observation of approximately 11 days there were no statistically significant changes in spectral shape. The spectrum can be fitted by a power law with photon index of about 1.42 + or - 0.06 and a hydrogen column density of approximately 7.5 + or - 0.5 x 10 to the 22nd power atoms/sq cm. A 2-sigma residual to this fit implies fluorescent Fe line emission with an equivalent width of about 240 eV. Both synchrotron self-Compton and thermal Compton models are consistent with the X-ray data.
The character and degree of coincidence between the current and future missions, programs, and projects of the Goddard Space Flight Center and the current and future collection, services, and facilities of its library were determined from structured interviews and discussions with various classes of facility personnel. In addition to the tabulation and interpretation of the data from the structured interview survey, five types of statistical analyses were performed to corroborate (or contradict) the survey results and to produce useful information not readily attainable through survey material. Conclusions reached regarding compatability between needs and holdings, services and buildings, library hours of operation, methods of early detection and anticipation of changing holdings requirements, and the impact of near future programs are presented along with a list of statistics needing collection, organization, and interpretation on a continuing or longitudinal basis.
The third phase of remote sensing technologies and potentials applied to the operations of the U.S. Geological Survey is introduced. Remote sensing data with multidisciplinary spatial data from traditional sources is combined with geographic theory and techniques of environmental modeling. These combined imputs are subject to four sequential activities that involve: (1) thermatic mapping of land use and environmental factors; (2) the dynamics of change detection; (3) environmental surveillance to identify sudden changes and general trends; and (4) preparation of statistical model and analytical reports. Geography program functions, products, clients, and goals are presented in graphical form, along with aircraft photo missions, geography test sites, and FY-70.
Results are presented for measurements of the flux densities of 10 variable extragalactic sources at 85.2 or 90 GHz, which were made over a period of almost seven years with the NRAO 36-ft millimeter-wave antenna. The primary flux-density calibration standards used include Jupiter, Saturn, Mars, and the small-diameter Galactic source DR 21. Measured flux densities are given as a function of time (in years) for the sources 3C 84, NRAO 150, 3C 120, OJ 287, 4C 39.25, 3C 273, 3C 279, 3C 345, BL Lac, and 3C 454.3. No statistically meaningful flux-density changes during an observing interval (1 to 3 days) are detected for any source, and a high degree of correlation between flux-density variations at 85.2 or 90 GHz and those observed at lower frequencies is found in all 10 sources. Some variations observed at different frequencies in several individual sources are briefly discussed.
Landsat digital enhancements and classification maps are shown to be useful for updating the urban expansion of standard metropolitan statistical areas on a macro scale. Automated procedures for detecting nonurban to urban land coverage change using multitemporal Landsat data are investigated for five metropolitan areas, showing an overall delineation similar to that obtained from large scale aerial photography. The evaluated change detection procedures include image differencing, principal component transformation prior to differencing, and post classification comparison. Results show that image differencing techniques in MSS band 5 provide the most accurate land cover change detections.
The stratospheric ozone layer protects life on Earth from the harmful effects of solar ultravioiet radiation. The ozone layer is currently in a fragile state because of depletion caused by man-made chemicals, especially chlorofluorocarbons. The state of the ozone layer is being monitored and evaluated by scientific experts around the world, in order to help policy makers assess the impacts of international protocols that control the production and release of ozone depleting chemicals. Scientists use a variety ozone measurements and models in order to form a comprehensive picture about the current state of the ozone layer, and to predict the future behavior (expected to be a recovery, as the abundance of the depleting chemicals decreases). Among the data sets used, those from satellite-borne instruments have the advantage of providing a wealth of information about the ozone distribution over most of the globe. Several instruments onboard American and international satellites make measurements of the properties of the atmosphere, from which atmospheric ozone amounts are estimated; long-term measurement programs enable monitoring of trends in ozone. However, the characteristics of satellite instruments change in time. For example, the instrument lenses through which measurements are made may deteriorate over time, or the satellite orbit may drift so that measurements over each location are made later and later in the day. These changes may increase the errors in the retrieved ozone amounts, and degrade the quality of estimated ozone amounts and of their variability. Our work focuses on combining the satellite ozone data with global models that capture atmospheric motion and ozone chemistry, using advanced statistical techniques: this is known as data assimilation. Our method provides a three-dimensional global ozone distribution that is consistent with both the satellite measurements and with our understanding of processes (described in the models) that control ozone distribution. Through the monitoring of statistical properties of the agreement between the data and the model, this approach also enables us to detect changes in the quality of ozone data retrieved from satellite-borne instrument measurements. This paper demonstrates that calculations of the changes in satellite data quality, and the impact these changes on the estimates of the global ozone distribution, can assist in maintaining the uniform quality of the satellite ozone data throughout the lifetime of these instruments, thus contributing to our understanding of long-term ozone change.