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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-ion battery physics and statistics-based state of health model

A pseudo-2d model using COMSOL Multiphysics® software is developed to simulate performance and performance degradation of Li-ion batteries consisting of layered and olivine cathodes with graphite anode when subjected to peak shaving grid service. Multiple degradation pathways are considered, including solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation and breakdown at the anode, cathode dissolution and its synergistic effect on SEI formation at the anode. The model is validated by simulating commercial cylindrical cell performance. A global model is developed to simulate performance across all chemistries, along with individual chemistry models using global model parameters as initial values. There is good agreement between these models for various optimization parameters such as SEI equilibrium potential, cathode dissolution exchange current density, solvent diffusivity in the SEI and SEI ionic conductivity. To circumvent time constraints related to the COMSOL model, a 0d global model is developed which fits data well and provides more clarity on differences in cathode dissolution exchange current density. Again, good agreement for various optimization parameters is obtained among the COMSOL global & individual chemistry models and the 0-d model. The lessons learned from the physics-based model is used to develop a top down statistics-based model using current, voltage and anode volumetric change per mole lithium intercalated, along with their interactions as degradation predictors. This model predicts out of sample degradation for multiple grid services and electric vehicle drive cycle with high accuracy and provides the pathway to develop an efficient battery management system combining machine learning and findings from physics-based computationally intensive algorithms.

Crawford, Aladsair J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A Unified Statistical Rain-Attenuation Model for Communication Link Fade Predictions and Optimal Stochastic Fade Control Design Using a Location-Dependent Rain-Statistic Database

A static and dynamic rain-attenuation model is presented which describes the statistics of attenuation on an arbitrarily specified satellite link for any location for which there are long-term rainfall statistics. The model may be used in the design of the optimal stochastic control algorithms to mitigate the effects of attenuation and maintain link reliability. A rain-statistics data base is compiled, which makes it possible to apply the model to any location in the continental U.S. with a resolution of 0-5 degrees in latitude and longitude. The model predictions are compared with experimental observations, showing good agreement.

Manning, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

On reading Youden: Learning about the practice of statistics and applied statistical research from a master applied statistician

From reading William John “Jack” Youden’s books and articles, Youden (1900-1971), an analytical chemist, becomes an applied statistician by the time he joins the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) in 1948. Here, this article traces his transition from chemist to applied statistician and what his body of work mostly at NBS (1948-1965) demonstrates about his practice of statistics and the role that applied statistical research plays in it. There is much we can learn from a master applied statistician.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-Level Reverse Intersystem Crossing and Molecular Rigidity Improve Spin Statistics for Triplet–Triplet Annihilation Upconversion

The structural factors affecting triplet−triplet annihilation (TTA) at the molecular level are not well-understood. Here, our steady-state photoluminescence and transient absorption results demonstrate that the spin statistical factor, η, decreases from 0.60 to 0.46 and 0.14 going from 9,10-diphenylanthracene (DPA) to the 1,5-DPA and 2,6-DPA isomers, respectively, during photon upconversion with a platinum octaethylporphyrin sensitizer. Density functional theory (DFT) shows that η depends on the energetics of hot triplet states and molecular rigidity. The significantly high conical intersection energy between the S 0 and T 1 states for 9,10-DPA gives its longer triplet lifetime. Time-dependent DFT calculations show that 9,10-DPA and 1,5-DPA can undergo high-level reverse intersystem crossing from their T 2 and T 3 states, respectively, to the bright S 1 state, increasing the limit of the spin statistical factor. Both factors ultimately serve to enhance the TTA efficiency. Furthermore, this work provides insight into designing molecules for efficient light-emitting and photon upconversion applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical mechanics and pressure of composite multimoded weakly nonlinear optical systems

Statistical mechanics can provide a versatile theoretical framework for investigating the collective dynamics of weakly nonlinear-wave settings that can be utterly complex to describe otherwise. In optics, composite systems arise due to interactions between different frequencies and polarizations. The purpose of this work is to develop a thermodynamic theory that takes into account the synergistic action of multiple components. We find that the type of the nonlinearity involved can have important implications in the thermalization process and, hence, can lead to different thermal equilibrium conditions. Importantly, we derive closed-form expressions for the actual optomechanical pressure that is exerted on the system. In particular, the total optomechanical pressure is the sum of the partial pressures due to each component. Our results can be applied to a variety of weakly nonlinear optical settings such as multimode fibers, bulk waveguides, photonic lattices, and coupled microresonators. We present two specific examples, where two colors interact in a one-waveguide array with either a cubic or quadratic nonlinearity.

Efremidis, Nikolaos K. (ORCID:0000000298300268)↗
NASA NTRS1976

Some new results on the statistics of radio wave scintillation. I - Empirical evidence for Gaussian statistics

This paper presents an analysis of ionospheric scintillation data which shows that the underlying statistical structure of the signal can be accurately modeled by the additive complex Gaussian perturbation predicted by the Born approximation in conjunction with an application of the central limit theorem. By making use of this fact, it is possible to estimate the in-phase, phase quadrature, and cophased scattered power by curve fitting to measured intensity histograms. By using this procedure, it is found that typically more than 80% of the scattered power is in phase quadrature with the undeviated signal component. Thus, the signal is modeled by a Gaussian, but highly non-Rician process. From simultaneous UHF and VHF data, only a weak dependence of this statistical structure on changes in the Fresnel radius is deduced. The signal variance is found to have a nonquadratic wavelength dependence. It is hypothesized that this latter effect is a subtle manifestation of locally homogeneous irregularity structures, a mathematical model proposed by Kolmogorov (1941) in his early studies of incompressible fluid turbulence.

Rino, C. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trajectory Ensemble Methods Provide Single-Molecule Statistics for Quantum Dynamical Systems

The emergence of experiments capable of probing quantum dynamics at the single-molecule level requires the development of new theoretical tools capable of simulating and analyzing these dynamics beyond an ensemble-averaged description. In this article, we present an efficient method for sampling and simulating the dynamics of the individual quantum systems that make up an ensemble and apply it to study the nonequilibrium dynamics of the ubiquitous spin-boson model. We generate an ensemble of single-system trajectories, and we analyze this trajectory ensemble using tools from classical statistical mechanics. Our results demonstrate that the dynamics of quantum coherence is highly heterogeneous at the single-system level due to variations in the initial bath configuration, which significantly affects the transient exchange of coherence between the system and its bath. Here, we observe that single systems tend to retain coherence over time scales longer than that of the ensemble. We also compute a novel thermodynamic entanglement entropy that quantifies a thermodynamic driving force favoring system–bath entanglement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1986

Statistical prediction of dynamic distortion of inlet flow using minimum dynamic measurement. An application to the Melick statistical method and inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction without RMS measurements

The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.

Schweikhard, W. G.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Comparison between reflectivity statistics at heights of 3 and 6 km and rain rate statistics at ground level

An experiment was conducted to study the relations between the empirical distribution functions of reflectivity at specified locations above the surface and the corresponding functions at the surface. A bistatic radar system was used to measure continuously the scattering cross section per unit volume at heights of 3 and 6 km. A frequency of 3.7 GHz was used in the tests. It was found that the distribution functions for reflectivity may significantly change with height at heights below the level of the melting layer.

Crane, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Signal statistics of the radar echoes: Angle-of-arrival statistics, part 2.2A

The Doppler spectra, measured with a vertical antenna beam, are characterized by essentially two different kinds of distributions, one has a very narrow and the other a broad spectral width. The former is accepted as due to reflection whereas the latter is due to scattering. It can happen that both kinds of spectra are observed simultaneously. Superimposed on a fairly broad Gaussian signal spectrum, very narrow signal spikes are evident. Because some spikes occur at different Doppler frequencies, the subreflections have to be assumed to move with different radial velocities. To experimentally verify this reasonable assumption, it is proposed to measure the angle of arrival of the different signal returns. One can here make use of the essential advantage that the spikes can be filtered in frequency (called Doppler sortening or sharpening). By means of the cross spectrum analysis with the interferometer technique (measuring phase differences between spaced antennas), their angle of arrival can be measured. This will allow determination of the distribution of the angles of arrival.

Rottger, J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

(U) A General-Purpose Code for Correlated Sampling Using Batch Statistics with MCNP6 for Fixed-Source Problems

Correlated sampling can be used to reduce the uncertainty of a difference of tallies by taking advantage of the negative covariance term in the sandwich formula. Booth first showed how correlated sampling can be applied with batch statistics using MCNP’s tally fluctuation chart (TFC) to reduce the uncertainty of a difference of tallies in fixed-source problems. Booth presented a problem in which a 1273% uncertainty in a difference was reduced to 8% by accounting for correlations. Researchers He and Su recently studied correlated sampling using the TFC in MCNP version 5. They determined that the code did not print enough digits in the TFC tally means for accurate batch statistics in some cases. After modifying the source code, they concluded that “correlated sampling can yield a standard deviation of about one magnitude smaller than that predicted by the direct, un-correlated simulation when the changes in system response are small (say about 1%), which is equivalent to saving in CPU time by a factor of 100. Such saving [sic] becomes less significant as the change in system response becomes larger.” He and Su provided the formulas needed to apply batch statistics to compute the correlated uncertainty of a difference of tallies. In this report, we follow up on their work by providing the formulas needed to apply batch statistics to compute the correlated uncertainty of a ratio of tallies and of a difference of two tallies divided by a third tally. We extend these formulas to differences and ratios of ratios. These formulas are applied to reduce the uncertainty associated with calculating a relative sensitivity. He and Su did not investigate the accuracy of their correlated sampling uncertainty estimates. We use their test problems and evaluate the accuracy of the uncertainty estimates by comparing with results obtained from random sampling, and, in simple cases, with theoretical values of the “exact” uncertainties. We find that the uncertainties obtained from batch statistics are accurate as long as at least 100 batches are used. We present a new computer code, COSUBS (COrrelated Sampling Using Batch Statistics), that reads MCNP6 TFCs and applies correlated sampling using batch statistics for the tally combinations that the user specifies. COSUBS is a very general tool that compares all TFCs for a base case and one or two perturbed cases. It computes uncertainties for ratios if given only a base case. This report is organized as follows. The equations to apply batch statistics to the difference of random tallies are reviewed in Sec. II. Section III presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a ratio of random tallies; this is useful for computing relative sensitivities using a one-sided finite difference and the relative sensitivity using the differential operator method. Section IV presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a difference of two random tallies divided by a third; this is useful for computing a relative sensitivities using a central difference. Section V presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a difference of two ratios with four random tallies. Section VI presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a one-sided finite difference estimate of the relative sensitivity of a ratio (this uses four random tallies). Section VII presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a central difference estimate of the relative sensitivity of a ratio (this uses six random tallies). Section VIII presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a sum of random tallies. Section IX discusses how to apply batch statistics using MCNP6. Section X presents COSUBS, describing its command-line options and logic. Sections XI through XVI present numerical results for various test problems. Section XVII is a summary and conclusions. Appendix A derives the theoretical Monte Carlo tally variance given certain assumptions; these variances are used to verify the batch statistics for some of the problems. Appendix B lists the MCNP6 input for the unperturbed example problem. Appendix C presents modifications made to MCNP6.3 to support this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the convergence of statistics in simulations of stationary incompressible turbulent flows

When reporting statistics from simulations of statistically stationary chaotic phenomenon, it is important to verify that the simulations are time-converged. This condition is connected with the statistical error or number of digits with which statistics can be reliably reported. In this work we consider numerical experiments of low Reynolds number incompressible homogeneous and isotropic turbulence as a model problem to investigate statistical convergence over finite simulation times. Specifically, we investigate the time integration requirements that allow meaningful reporting of the statistical error associated with finiteness of the temporal domain. We address two key questions: (1) How long should a simulation be performed in terms of large eddy time, and (2) How should the simulation time be divided among temporal windows over which a quantity of interest is estimated so that its statistical error could be reliably reported? We find that reliable reporting of statistical errors requires simulations on the order of 10 4 large eddy times, which is orders of magnitude longer than typically performed. Additionally, data post-processing should employ windows of at least ten times the large eddy time scale, with the most robust computation of statistical error of the mean requiring window sizes of an additional factor of ten. For practical simulations, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the statistical error within a factor of two under a less stringent condition in which a minimum of four windows with size at least ten large eddy times are used. In conclusion, our observations for homogeneous isotropic turbulence are also shown to hold in turbulent channel flow.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Anyonic Membranes and Pontryagin Statistics

Anyons, unique to two spatial dimensions, underlie extraordinary phenomena such as the fractional quantum Hall effect, but their generalization to higher dimensions has remained elusive. The topology of Eilenberg-MacLane spaces constrains the loop statistics to be only bosonic or fermionic in any dimension. In this work, we introduce the novel anyonic statistics for membrane excitations in four dimensions. Analogous to the $\mathbb{Z}_N$-particle exhibiting $\mathbb{Z}_{N\times \gcd(2,N)}$ anyonic statistics in two dimensions, we show that the $\mathbb{Z}_N$-membrane possesses $\mathbb{Z}_{N\times \gcd(3,N)}$ anyonic statistics in four dimensions. Given unitary volume operators that create membrane excitations on the boundary, we propose an explicit 56-step unitary sequence that detects the membrane statistics. We further analyze the boundary theory of $(5{+}1)$D 1-form $\mathbb{Z}_N$ symmetry-protected topological phases and demonstrate that their domain walls realize all possible anyonic membrane statistics. We then show that the $\mathbb{Z}_3$ subgroup persists in all higher dimensions. In addition to the standard fermionic $\mathbb{Z}_2$ membrane statistics arising from Stiefel-Whitney classes, membranes also exhibit $\mathbb{Z}_3$ statistics associated with Pontryagin classes. We explicitly verify that the 56-step process detects the nontrivial $\mathbb{Z}_3$ statistics in 5, 6, and 7 spatial dimensions. Furthermore, in 7 and higher dimensions, the statistics of membrane excitations stabilize to $\mathbb{Z}_{2} \times \mathbb{Z}_{3}$, with the $\mathbb{Z}_3$ sector consistently captured by this process.

Abstract algebra↗
NASA NTRS1973

Statistical properties of filtered pseudorandom digital sequences formed from the sum of maximum-length sequences

The statistics of filtered pseudorandom digital sequences called hybrid-sum sequences, formed from the modulo-two sum of several maximum-length sequences, are analyzed. The results indicate that a relation exists between the statistics of the filtered sequence and the characteristic polynomials of the component maximum length sequences. An analysis procedure is developed for identifying a large group of sequences with good statistical properties for applications requiring the generation of analog pseudorandom noise. By use of the analysis approach, the filtering process is approximated by the convolution of the sequence with a sum of unit step functions. A parameter reflecting the overall statistical properties of filtered pseudorandom sequences is derived. This parameter is called the statistical quality factor. A computer algorithm to calculate the statistical quality factor for the filtered sequences is presented, and the results for two examples of sequence combinations are included. The analysis reveals that the statistics of the signals generated with the hybrid-sum generator are potentially superior to the statistics of signals generated with maximum-length generators. Furthermore, fewer calculations are required to evaluate the statistics of a large group of hybrid-sum generators than are required to evaluate the statistics of the same size group of approximately equivalent maximum-length sequences.

Wallace, G. R.↗