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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report documents the eighth edition of the annual Standard Scenarios. It summarizes 70 forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector that have been designed to capture a wide range of possible futures. In August 2022, the United States Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a law aimed at accelerating U.S. decarbonization, clean energy manufacturing, and deployment of new power and end-use technologies. This year’s scenarios include representations of the main electricity-sector provisions from IRA and the potential impact on electricity demand. The Standard Scenarios are simulated using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which projects utility-scale electricity sector evolution for the contiguous United States using a system-wide, least-cost approach subject to policy and operational constraints. A subset of the scenarios are simulated in the PLEXOS production cost model to obtain a broader suite of metrics at the hourly resolution, which are made available through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) annual Cambium data sets. The scenarios can be viewed and downloaded from NREL’s Scenario Viewer. Annual results are available for the full suite of scenarios in the Standard Scenarios projects in the viewer, whereas the Cambium projects contain hourly data for a subset of scenarios. The Standard Scenarios includes a scenario called the Mid-case, which has central or median values for core inputs such as technology costs and fuel prices, moderately paced demand growth averaging 1.3% per year, and electricity sector policies as they existed in September 2022 (including IRA). The remaining 69 scenarios are created by varying inputs such as technology and fuel prices, resource availability, demand growth, whether nascent generation technologies are allowed, and by introducing national decarbonization constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

2024 Standard Scenarios: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This data corresponds to the 2024 Standard Scenarios report, which contains a suite of forward-looking scenarios of the possible evolution of the U.S. electricity sector through 2050. These files contain modeled projections of the future. Although we strive to capture relevant phenomena as comprehensively as possible, the models used to create this data are unavoidably imperfect, and the future is highly uncertain. Consequentially, this data should not be the sole basis for making decisions. In addition to drawing from multiple scenarios within this set, we encourage analysts to also draw on projections from other sources, to benefit from diverse analytical frameworks and perspectives when forming their conclusions about the future of the power sector. For further discussions about the limitations of the models underlying this data, see section 1.4 of the "ReEDS Documentation" linked below. For scenario descriptions, input assumptions, and metric definitions for the data in these files, see the "2024 Standard Scenarios Report" linked below.

2050↗
DOE OSTI2024

2023 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report, originally published in December 2023, has been revised in January 2024. There were three changes in the revision. First, Anthony Lopez was added as a contributing author, as he had been erroneously omitted in the original publication. Second, in appendix section A.1 the cost of upgrading a hydrogen combustion turbine from a natural gas turbine was erroneously reported as 20% when it should have been 33%. Lastly, appendix Figure A-8 was erroneously a duplication of the same figure from the Standard Scenarios 2022, it has now been updated to reflect this year’s data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Width of a Solar Coronal Mass Ejection and the Source of the Driving Magnetic Explosion: A Test of the Standard Scenario for CME Production

We show that the strength (B(sub F1are)) of the magnetic field in the area covered by the flare arcade following a CME-producing ejective solar eruption can be estimated from the final angular width (Final Theta(sub CME)) of the CME in the outer corona and the final angular width (Theta(sub Flare)) of the flare arcade: B(sub Flare) approx. equals 1.4[(Final Theta(sub CME)/Theta(sub Flare)] (exp 2)G. We assume (1) the flux-rope plasmoid ejected from the flare site becomes the interior of the CME plasmoid; (2) in the outer corona (R > 2 (solar radius)) the CME is roughly a "spherical plasmoid with legs" shaped like a lightbulb; and (3) beyond some height in or below the outer corona the CME plasmoid is in lateral pressure balance with the surrounding magnetic field. The strength of the nearly radial magnetic field in the outer corona is estimated from the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Ulysses. We apply this model to three well-observed CMEs that exploded from flare regions of extremely different size and magnetic setting. One of these CMEs was an over-and-out CME, that is, in the outer corona the CME was laterally far offset from the flare-marked source of the driving magnetic explosion. In each event, the estimated source-region field strength is appropriate for the magnetic setting of the flare. This agreement (1) indicates that CMEs are propelled by the magnetic field of the CME plasmoid pushing against the surrounding magnetic field; (2) supports the magnetic-arch-blowout scenario for over-and-out CMEs; and (3) shows that a CME's final angular width in the outer corona can be estimated from the amount of magnetic flux covered by the source-region flare arcade.

Moore, Ronald L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization-Based Model Reduction Scheme for Renewable Energy Power Plants Using Standardized Testing Scenarios

This paper presents an optimization-based model reduction scheme for renewable energy (RE) power plants consisting of inverter-based resources (IBRs) operating in grid-following (GFL) or grid-forming (GFM) modes. More importantly, the datasets feeding the optimization-based model reduction scheme are generated and re-used through the standardized grid-interactive testing scenarios. Particularly, the proposed scheme makes use of the power plant point of common coupling (PCC) measurements of various quantities specified by standardized tests (e.g., voltage and frequency ride through) as per IEEE 2800, to estimate the parameters of the reduced-order model such that its dynamic performance aligns with the original detailed power plant model. The proposed model reduction approach does not require the parameters of individual IBRs and using standardized test data as input to the formulated optimization problem simplifies the reduced-order modelling scheme. Extensive case studies following standardized test scenarios verified the remarkable accuracy of the proposed approach.

Yallamilli, Ram S. [Purdue University]↗
NASA NTRS1986

The new inflationary universe, 1984

The present status of the new inflationary theory in cosmology is discussed. The standard scenario of the very early universe, the problems of this scenario, and the basics of the new inflationary theory are reviewed. The ways in which this theory solves the problems connected with the standard scenario are described.

Guth, Alan H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Millisecond radio pulsars in globular clusters

It is shown that the number of millisecond radio pulsars, in globular clusters, should be larger than 100, applying the standard scenario that all the pulsars descend from low-mass X-ray binaries. Moreover, most of the pulsars are located in a small number of clusters. The prediction that Teran 5 and Liller 1 contain at least about a dozen millisecond radio pulsars each is made. The observations of millisecond radio pulsars in globular clusters to date, in particular the discovery of two millisecond radio pulsars in 47 Tuc, are in agreement with the standard scenario, in which the neutron star is spun up during the mass transfer phase.

Verbunt, Frank↗
NASA NTRS1989

Millisecond radio pulsars in globular clusters

It is shown that the number of millisecond radio pulsars, in globular clusters, should be larger than 100, applying the standard scenario that all the pulsars descend from low-mass X-ray binaries. Moreover, most of the pulsars are located in a small number of clusters. The prediction that Teran 5 and Liller 1 contain at least about a dozen millisecond radio pulsars each is made. The observations of millisecond radio pulsars in globular clusters to date, in particular the discovery of two millisecond radio pulsars in 47 Tuc, are in agreement with the standard scenario, in which the neutron star is spun up during the mass transfer phase.

Verbunt, Frank↗
NASA NTRS2013

Development of a Standard Test Scenario to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Portable Fire Extinguishers on Lithium-ion Battery Fires

Many sources of fuel are present aboard current spacecraft, with one especially hazardous source of stored energy: lithium ion batteries. Lithium ion batteries are a very hazardous form of fuel due to their self-sustaining combustion once ignited, for example, by an external heat source. Batteries can become extremely energetic fire sources due to their high density electrochemical energy content that may, under duress, be violently converted to thermal energy and fire in the form of a thermal runaway. Currently, lithium ion batteries are the preferred types of batteries aboard international spacecraft and therefore are routinely installed, collectively forming a potentially devastating fire threat to a spacecraft and its crew. Currently NASA is developing a fine water mist portable fire extinguisher for future use on international spacecraft. As its development ensues, a need for the standard evaluation of various types of fire extinguishers against this potential threat is required to provide an unbiased means of comparing between fire extinguisher technologies and ranking them based on performance.

Juarez, Alfredo↗
DOE OSTI2025

ComStock Measure Scenario Documentation: Standard Performance Heat Pump Rooftop Unit With New Windows

Building on a 3-year effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock (TM) and ComStock (TM) models, this work produces national datasets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual energy consumption (at subhourly resolution) of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility end-use load shapes that cover high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to various "what-if" scenarios that can be applied to buildings. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building (or collection of buildings) and a building with an energy efficiency or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step, as well as annual aggregations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Highly Resolved Reference Projections of Building Energy Use for the Contiguous United States: Building Sector Energy Baselines, Projection Methods, and Results

This report describes one methodology of projecting energy consumption of the US residential and commercial building sectors using NREL's ResStock™ and ComStock™ as well as growth rates derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The impetus for this work is to provide an intermediate method for compiling demand-side sectoral energy projections that is suitable for grid-scale analysis, such as NREL's Standard Scenarios. ResStock and ComStock are physics-based and statistically representative building stock models of the US residential and commercial sector, respectively. Using the 2012 actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, the sectoral energy baselines are simulated and then segmented along key dimensions (e.g., geography, dwelling/building type). The segmented results are then scaled using the corresponding annual growth rates derived from the 2021 AEO reference case to produce energy projections out to 2050. The compiled result is a demand-side grid model (dsgrid) data set suitable for use in NREL's large-scale grid models, such as the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). This simple projection method does not endogenously represent how the building stock could evolve through time. Most notably, it does not reflect large-scale electrification, for example, the conversion of space heating, water heating, clothes drying, and cooking from primary fossil fuels to electricity, as this is not part of AEO's reference case assumptions. Nonetheless this approach is more resolved and potentially extensible compared to the current method used by Standard Scenarios's reference case, which augments a sector's total load based on a single growth rate from AEO.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

NREL Planning Resources for States

This presentation summarizes some NREL resources and capabilities that states might want to access to help with decarbonization planning. It describes three types of resources: already-available, public datasets describing technology costs and future grid evolution; jurisdiction-specific integration studies that require directly partnering with NREL; and an envisioned new data product comprising state-specific standard scenarios that could be collaboratively funded by the states.

annual technology baseline↗
NASA NTRS1994

Nonstandard thermal evolution of neutron stars

A neutron star may cool much faster than through the 'standard' scenario. Here we calculate thermal evolution of neutron stars through various 'nonstandard' fast cooling scenarios, and the results are compared with the currently up-dated observational data. We discuss the possibility of distinguishing between the standard and various, different nonstandard scenarios, through the current and future X-ray satellite observations.

Umeda, Hideyuki↗
NASA NTRS1993

The galaxy velocity field and CDM models

It is generally accepted that some kind of non-baryonic dark matter accounts for most of the mass density of the universe. Considering such a component has become, in the last decade, a key ingredient in current theories of structure formation. In particular, the Cold Dark Matter (CDM) scenario has proven to be quite successful in explaining most of the observed properties of galaxies and of their large-scale distribution. The standard CDM model is characterized by a primordial Zel'dovich spectrum, of random-phase adiabatic perturbations in a universe with density parameter omega sub 0 = 1 and vanishing cosmological constant. This poster paper presents an analysis of observational data on peculiar motion of optical galaxies in comparison to the predictions of CDM models where the assumptions of the standard scenario: omega sub 0 = 1, n = 1, and bias parameter b = 1 are relaxed. In particular, CDM models with 0 less than n less than 1 and 0.4 less than omega sub 0 less than 1 are considered.

Tormen, Giuseppe↗
NASA NTRS1991

Big bang nucleosynthesis: The standard model and alternatives

Big bang nucleosynthesis provides (with the microwave background radiation) one of the two quantitative experimental tests of the big bang cosmological model. This paper reviews the standard homogeneous-isotropic calculation and shows how it fits the light element abundances ranging from He-4 at 24% by mass through H-2 and He-3 at parts in 10(exp 5) down to Li-7 at parts in 10(exp 10). Furthermore, the recent large electron positron (LEP) (and the stanford linear collider (SLC)) results on the number of neutrinos are discussed as a positive laboratory test of the standard scenario. Discussion is presented on the improved observational data as well as the improved neutron lifetime data. Alternate scenarios of decaying matter or of quark-hadron induced inhomogeneities are discussed. It is shown that when these scenarios are made to fit the observed abundances accurately, the resulting conlusions on the baryonic density relative to the critical density, omega(sub b) remain approximately the same as in the standard homogeneous case, thus, adding to the robustness of the conclusion that omega(sub b) approximately equals 0.06. This latter point is the driving force behind the need for non-baryonic dark matter (assuming omega(sub total) = 1) and the need for dark baryonic matter, since omega(sub visible) is less than omega(sub b).

Schramm, David N.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Axion dark matter from frictional misalignment

We study the impact of sphaleron-induced thermal friction on the axion dark-matter abundance due to the interaction of an axion-like particle (ALP) with a dark non-abelian gauge sector in a secluded thermal bath. Thermal friction can either enhance the axion relic density by delaying the onset of oscillations or suppress it by damping them. We derive an analytical formula for the frictional adiabatic invariant, which remains constant along the axion evolution and which allows us to compute the axion relic density in a general set-up. Even in the most minimal scenario, in which a single gauge group is responsible for both the generation of the ALP mass and the friction force, we find that the resulting dark-matter abundance from the misalignment mechanism deviates from the standard scenario for axion masses m a ≳ 100 eV. We also generalize our analysis to the case where the gauge field that induces friction and the gauge sector responsible for the ALP mass are distinct and their couplings to the axion have a large hierarchy as can be justified by means of alignment or clockwork scenarios. We find that it is easy to open up the ALP parameter space where the resulting axion abundance matches the observed dark-matter relic density both in the traditionally over- and underabundant regimes. This conclusion also holds for the QCD axion.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cambium 2024 Scenario Descriptions and Documentation

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Cambium data sets are annually released sets of simulated hourly data for a range of modeled futures of the U.S. electric sector with metrics designed to be useful for long-term decision- making. The 2024 Cambium data set is the fifth annual release. The data sets are a companion product to NREL's Standard Scenarios, which are likewise released annually and are a set of projections of how the U.S. electric sector could evolve across a suite of different potential futures, but covering more scenarios with less temporal granularity. Information about Cambium and related publications can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html, and the Cambium data sets can be viewed and downloaded at https://scenarioviewer.nrel.gov/. In this documentation, we describe Cambium 2024's scenarios, define the metrics, and document the Cambium-specific methods for calculating those metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗