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Uncertainties in Atomic Data and Their Propagation Through Spectral Models. I.

We present a method for computing uncertainties in spectral models, i.e., level populations, line emissivities, and emission line ratios, based upon the propagation of uncertainties originating from atomic data.We provide analytic expressions, in the form of linear sets of algebraic equations, for the coupled uncertainties among all levels. These equations can be solved efficiently for any set of physical conditions and uncertainties in the atomic data. We illustrate our method applied to spectral models of Oiii and Fe ii and discuss the impact of the uncertainties on atomic systems under different physical conditions. As to intrinsic uncertainties in theoretical atomic data, we propose that these uncertainties can be estimated from the dispersion in the results from various independent calculations. This technique provides excellent results for the uncertainties in A-values of forbidden transitions in [Fe ii]. Key words: atomic data - atomic processes - line: formation - methods: data analysis - molecular data - molecular processes - techniques: spectroscopic

linear sets

Numerical simulation of stratospheric sudden warmings with a primitive equation spectral model

A 26-level primitive equation spherical harmonic spectral model allowing for wave-wave and wave-zonal flow interactions is presented for the study of stratospheric sudden warmings. The warmings are simulated by the forcing of a single planetary wave at the tropopause. Four numerical experiments were performed. Nonlinear wave-wave interactions appear to play an important role in the evolution of the flow and temperature fields in the middle to upper stratosphere. In the case involving both wave-wave and wave-zonal flow interactions, this was manifested by the split in the initial polar vortex into a quasi-wave number 2 pattern. In the cases at 60 deg N, easterlies develop first in the upper mesosphere and descend gradually. About the same time or a little later, easterlies also develop in the mid-stratosphere. The linear cases exhibit warmings which are more shallow and more intense at 30 km than the nonlinear cases.

Lordi, N. J.

Simulation of the zonal mean climatology of the middle atmosphere with a three-dimensional spectral model for solstice and equinox conditions

A 3D spectral model was used to simulate the zonal mean state of the middle atmosphere for solstice and equinox conditions. The model incorporates realistic parameterizations of atmospheric infrared cooling and a gravity wave formulation based on a combination of Lindzen's (1981) and Matsuno's (1982) approaches. The temperature distributions for both seasons and the zonal wind distribution for solstice are found to be in satisfactory agreement with the empirical model of Fleming et al. (1988). Net vertical fluxes of horizontal momentum are in good agreement with systematic observations of gravity waves in the middle atmosphere.

Akmaev, R. A.

Middle Atmosphere Dynamics with Gravity Wave Interactions in the Numerical Spectral Model: Tides and Planetary Waves

As Lindzen (1981) had shown, small-scale gravity waves (GW) produce the observed reversals of the zonal-mean circulation and temperature variations in the upper mesosphere. The waves also play a major role in modulating and amplifying the diurnal tides (DT) (e.g., Waltersheid, 1981; Fritts and Vincent, 1987; Fritts, 1995a). We summarize here the modeling studies with the mechanistic numerical spectral model (NSM) with Doppler spread parameterization for GW (Hines, 1997a, b), which describes in the middle atmosphere: (a) migrating and non-migrating DT, (b) planetary waves (PW), and (c) global-scale inertio gravity waves. Numerical experiments are discussed that illuminate the influence of GW filtering and nonlinear interactions between DT, PW, and zonal mean variations. Keywords: Theoretical modeling, Middle atmosphere dynamics, Gravity wave interactions, Migrating and non-migrating tides, Planetary waves, Global-scale inertio gravity waves.

Mayr, Hans G.

A study on the spectral models for waves in finite water depth

From an extension of the Wallops Spectrum (Huang et al., 1981) for the deep water waves, spectral models for waves in finite water depths are developed. Stokes wave expansions are found to offer a good approximation for intermediate water depth. The spectral function in this case is controlled by three parameters: the significant slope, the nondimensional depth, and the peak frequency. It is pointed out that solitary and cnoidal wave models must be used for the shallow water waves. The controlling parameters now reduce to the Urell number and the peak frequency. Even though the resulting spectral models place special emphasis on the energy-containing range of the spectrum, they are not limited to this range and they are not limited to any particular sea state. They are seen as offering a possible explanation of the variations in the special slope observed by previous investigators.

Huang, N. E.

A global low order spectral model designed for climate sensitivity studies

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate is developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only with moist convective adjustment between the two layers. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a lower boundary vertical velocity. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. On land and sea ice surfaces a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. Over the oceans the sea surface temperatures are prescribed from the climatological average of January. The model is integrated to simulate the January climate.

Hanna, A. F.

Development of a Spectral Model Based on Charge Transport for the Swift/BAT 32K CdZnTe Detector Array

The properties of 32K CdZnTe (4 x 4 sq mm large, 2 mm thick) detectors have been studied in the pre-flight calibration of the Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) on-board the Swift Gamma-ray Burst Explorer (scheduled for launch in November 2004). In order to understand the energy response of the BAT CdZnTe array, we first quantify the mobility-lifetime (mu tau) products of carriers in individual CdZnTe detectors, which produce a position dependency in the charge induction efficiency and results in a low energy tail in the energy spectrum. Based on a new method utilizing (57)Co spectra obtained at different bias voltages, the mu tau for electrons ranges from 5.0 x 10(exp -4) to 1.0 x 10(exp -2) sq cm/V while the mu tau for holes ranges from 1.3 x 10(exp -5 to 1.8 x 10(exp -4) sq cm/V. We find that this wide distribution of mu tau products explains the large diversity in spectral shapes between CdZnTe detectors well. We also find that the variation of mu tau products can be attributed to the difference of crystal ingots or manufacturing harness. We utilize the 32K sets of extracted mu tau products to develop a spectral model of the detector. In combination with Monte Carlo simulations, we can construct a spectral model for any photon energy or any incident angle.

Sato, Goro

Oceanographic mapping of structure and dynamics of the northern Gulf of California by the use of spectral modeling and ERTS-1

Distribution and flow of water masses at four depth intervals were determined by analyzing ERTS imagery through the use of optical models of classes of vertical oceanographic profiles. Data used for these models was obtained from shipboard measurements including surface spectral radiance, and optical and more conventional oceanographic depth profiles. The spectral models obtained were applied to radiance-contoured ERTS imagery in band 4, 5, 6, and 7. Features mapped by direct photointerpretation of ERTS imagery include submerged shoals, current streamlines, and location of possible upwellings, downwellings and submarine springs.

Lepley, L. K.

Application of a linear spectral model to the study of Amazonian squall lines during GTE/ABLE 2B

A linear nonhydrostatic spectral model is run with the basic state, or large scale, vertical profiles of temperature and wind observed prior to convective development along the northern coast of South America during the GTE/ABLE 2B. The model produces unstable modes with mesoscale wavelength and propagation speed comparable to observed Amazonian squall lines. Several tests with different vertical profiles of low-level winds lead to the conclusion that a shallow and/or weak low-level jet either does not produce a scale selection or, if it does, the selected mode is stationary, indicating the absence of a propagating disturbance. A 700-mbar jet of 13 m/s, with a 600-mbar wind speed greater or equal to 10 m/s, is enough to produce unstable modes with propagating features resembling those of observed Amazonian squall lines. However, a deep layer of moderate winds (about 10 m/s) may produce similar results even in the absence of a low-level wind maximum. The implications in terms of short-term weather forecasting are discussed.

Silva Dias, Maria A. F.

The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) and its Contributions to Space Weather Research, the Flare Energy Budget, and Instrument Design

The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model of the solar irradiance spectrum from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm spectral resolution and on a 1-minute time cadence. The goal of FISM is to provide accurate solar spectral irradiances over the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV: 0-200 nm) range as input for ionospheric and thermospheric models. The seminar will begin with a brief overview of the FISM model, and also how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) will contribute to improving FISM. Some current studies will then be presented that use FISM estimations of the solar VUV irradiance to quantify the contributions of the increased irradiance from flares to Earth's increased thermospheric and ionospheric densites. Initial results will also be presented from a study looking at the electron density increases in the Martian atmosphere during a solar flare. Results will also be shown quantifying the VUV contributions to the total flare energy budget for both the impulsive and gradual phases of solar flares. Lastly, an example of how FISM can be used to simplify the design of future solar VUV irradiance instruments will be discussed, using the future NOAA GOES-R Extreme Ultraviolet and X-Ray Sensors (EXIS) space weather instrument.

Chamberlin, Phillip

Spectral Models of Kuiper Belt Objects and Centaurs

We present models of the spectral reflectances of groups of outer Solar System objects defined primarily by their colors in the spectral region 0.4 -1.2 microns, and which have geometric albedo 0.04 at wavelength 0.55 microns. Our models of the groups with the strongest reflectance gradients (reddest colors) use combinations of organic tholins. We test the hypothesis that metal-reddened igneous rock-forming minerals contribute to the red colors of Centaurs and KBOs by using the space-weathered lunar soil as one of the components of our models. We find that our models can admit the presence of moderate amounts of space-weathered (metal-reddened) minerals, but that they do not require this material to achieve the red colors of the reddest outer Solar System bodies. Our models with organic tholins are consistent with the results of other investigators.

Cruikshank, Dale

Maintenance of quasi-stationary waves in a two-level quasi-geostrophic spectral model with topography

A study of the maintenance of the quasistationary waves forced by topography using a truncated two-level quasigeostrophic spectral model in a zonal channel on a beta-plane is presented. The model's motion contains wavenumbers 0, n, and 2n in the zonal direction, where n is the lowest eddy wavenumber and also the wavenumber of the topography. The study covered the two cases defined by n=2 and n=3; the spectral mode was integrated by initially perturbing the stationary solution of the equations governing the spectral coefficients, and a detailed energetics study was made of the quasiequilibrium state to study the maintenance of the quasistationary waves. The energy conversions required for maintaining these waves when n=3 imply that they are generated mainly by baroclinic stability of the forced waves; this type of baroclinic wave tends to become stationary to draw efficiently on the available energy of the forced wave.

Yao, M.-S.

Maintenance of quasi-stationary waves in a 2-level quasi-geostrophic spectral model with topography

The maintenance of the quasi-stationary waves obtained through numerically integrating a 2-level quasi-geostrophic spectral model on a beta-plane is investigated. An idealized topography which has only wavenumber n in the zonal direction and the first mode in the meridional direction is used to force the quasi-stationary waves. It is shown that the topographical forcing is not necessarily the mechanism for maintaining the quasi-stationary waves.

Yao, M. S.

High-resolution measurements, line identification, and spectral modeling of K-alpha transitions in Fe XVIII-Fe XXV

A detailed analysis of the iron K-alpha emission spectrum covering the wavelength region from 1.840 to 1.940 A is presented. Measurements are made with a high-resolution Bragg crystal spectrometer on the Princeton Large Torus (PLT) tokamak for plasma conditions which closely resemble those of solar flares. A total of 40 features are identified, consisting of either single or multiple lines from eight charge states in iron, Fe XVIII - Fe XXV, and their wavelengths are determined with an accuracy of 0.1-0.4 mA. Many of these features are identified for the first time. In the interpretation of our observations we rely on model calculations that determine the ionic species abundances from electron density and temperature profiles measured independently with nonspectroscopic techniques and that incorporate theoretical collisional excitation and dielectronic recombination rates resulting in the excitation of the 1s2sr2ps configurations. The model calculations also include the effect of diffusive ion transport. Good overall agreement between the model calculations and the observations is obtained, which gives us confidence in our line identifications and spectral modeling capabilities. The results are compared with earlier analyses of the K-alpha emission from the Sun.

Beiersdorfer, P.

Non-linear three dimensional spectral model of the Venusian thermosphere with super-rotation. I - Formulation and numerical technique. II - Temperature, composition and winds

A three-dimensional spectral model for the Venusion thermosphere is presented which uses spherical harmonics to represent the horizontal variations in longitude and latitude and which uses Fourier harmonics to represent the LT variations due to atmospheric rotation. A differencing scheme with tridiagonal block elimination is used to perform the height integration. Quadratic nonlinearities are taken into account. In the second part, numerical results obtained with the model are shown to reproduce the observed broad daytime maxima in CO2 and CO and the significantly larger values at dawn than at dusk. It is found that the diurnal variations in He are most sensitive to thermospheric superrotation, and that, given a globally uniform atmosphere as input, larger heating rates yield a larger temperature contrast between day and night.

Stevens-Rayburn, D. R.

Yield estimation of sugarcane based on agrometeorological-spectral models

This work has the objective to assess the performance of a yield estimation model for sugarcane (Succharum officinarum). The model uses orbital gathered spectral data along with yield estimated from an agrometeorological model. The test site includes the sugarcane plantations of the Barra Grande Plant located in Lencois Paulista municipality in Sao Paulo State. Production data of four crop years were analyzed. Yield data observed in the first crop year (1983/84) were regressed against spectral and agrometeorological data of that same year. This provided the model to predict the yield for the following crop year i.e., 1984/85. The model to predict the yield of subsequent years (up to 1987/88) were developed similarly, incorporating all previous years data. The yield estimations obtained from these models explained 69, 54, and 50 percent of the yield variation in the 1984/85, 1985/86, and 1986/87 crop years, respectively. The accuracy of yield estimations based on spectral data only (vegetation index model) and on agrometeorological data only (agrometeorological model) were also investigated.

Rudorff, Bernardo Friedrich Theodor

Planetary-Scale Inertio Gravity Waves in the Numerical Spectral Model

In the polar region of the upper mesosphere, horizontal wind oscillations have been observed with periods around 10 hours. Waves with such a period are generated in our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), and they are identified as planetary-scale inertio gravity waves (IGW). These IGWs have periods between 9 and 11 hours and appear above 60 km in the zonal mean (m = 0), as well as in zonal wavenumbers m = 1 to 4. The waves can propagate eastward and westward and have vertical wavelengths around 25 km. The amplitudes in the wind field are typically between 10 and 20 m/s and can reach 30 m/s in the westward propagating component for m = 1 at the poles. In the temperature perturbations, the wave amplitudes above 100 km are typically 5 K and as large as 10 K for m = 0 at the poles. The IGWs are intermittent but reveal systematic seasonal variations, with the largest amplitudes occurring generally in late winter and spring. In the NSM, the IGW are generated like the planetary waves (PW). They are produced apparently by the instabilities that arise in the zonal mean circulation. Relative to the PWs, however, the IGWs propagate zonally with much larger velocities, such that they are not affected much by interactions with the background zonal winds. Since the IGWs can propagate through the mesosphere without much interaction, except for viscous dissipation, one should then expect that they reach the thermosphere with significant and measurable amplitudes.

Mayr, H. G.