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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Spatio-temporal multivariate cluster evolution analysis for detecting and tracking climate impacts

Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. Here, this paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).

Anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2026

Efficient data-driven regression for reduced-order modeling of spatial pattern formation

We present an efficient data-driven regression approach for constructing reduced-order models (ROMs) of reaction-diffusion systems exhibiting pattern formation. The ROMs are learned non-intrusively from available training data of physically accurate numerical simulations. The method can be applied to general nonlinear systems through the use of polynomial model form, while not requiring knowledge of the underlying physical model, governing equations, or numerical solvers. The process of learning ROMs is posed as a low-cost least-squares problem in a reduced-order subspace identified via Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD). Numerical experiments on classical pattern-forming systems–including the Schnakenberg and Mimura–Tsujikawa models–demonstrate that higher-order surrogate models significantly improve prediction accuracy while maintaining low computational cost. The proposed method provides a flexible, non-intrusive model reduction framework, well suited for the analysis of complex spatio-temporal pattern formation phenomena.

Data-driven modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Superconducting Magnet Quench Antenna Data

Quenching poses a serious problem for superconducting magnets operating at high currents. It occurs when the material transitions from the superconducting to the normal state, which leads to heating and potential damage to the magnet. To understand and mitigate quenching, the Magnet Department at Fermilab is developing and testing superconducting magnet quench antenna arrays. This study delves into the anomalous events preceding the quench during magnet training by analyzing the collected data. With the moving average and Fast Fourier Transform techniques, we investigate the trends and frequency patterns of the data. Moreover, we introduce an unsupervised anomaly detection algorithm based on Principal Component Analysis and DBSCAN clustering. It can autonomously identify events within background noise, without relying on any predefined event features. Our analysis reveals that the spatio-temporal distribution of these anomalous events has little connection to the quench location, indicating that a majority of them bear no relation to the quenching process.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantitative phenotyping of crop roots with spectral electrical impedance tomography: a rhizotron study with optimized measurement design

Background: Root systems are key contributors to plant health, resilience, and, ultimately, yield of agricultural crops. To optimize plant performance, phenotyping trials are conducted to breed plants with diverse root traits. However, traditional analysis methods are often labour-intensive and invasive to the root system, therefore limiting high-throughput phenotyping. Spectral electrical impedance tomography (sEIT) could help as a non-invasive and cost-efficient alternative to optical root analysis, potentially providing 2D or 3D spatio-temporal information on root development and activity. Although impedance measurements have been shown to be sensitive to root biomass, nutrient status, and diurnal activity, only few attempts have been made to employ tomographic algorithms to recover spatially resolved information on root systems. In this study, we aim to establish relationships between tomographic electrical polarization signatures and root traits of different fine root systems (maize, pinto bean, black bean, and soy bean) under hydroponic conditions. Results: Our results show that, with the use of an optimized data acquisition scheme, sEIT is capable of providing spatially resolved information on root biomass and root surface area for all investigated root systems. We found strong correlations between the total polarization strength and the root biomass (R 2 = 0.82) and root surface area (R 2 = 0.8). Our findings suggest that the captured polarization signature is dominated by cell-scale polarization processes. Additionally, we demonstrate that the resolution characteristics of the measurement scheme can have a significant impact on the tomographic reconstruction of root traits. Conclusion: Our findings showcase that sEIT is a promising tool for the tomographic reconstruction of root traits in high-throughput root phenotyping trials and should be evaluated as a substitute for traditional, often time-consuming, root characterization methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-modal dynamic radiography using short-pulse laser-generated probe beams

Radiography is an important tool for the interrogation of dynamic experiments in the fields of dynamic properties of materials, and in condensed matter, high explosive, and high-energy-density physics. Multi-modal radiography advances the hypothesis that combining the information delivered by multiple radiographic modalities can lead to more constrained (improved) “reconstruction” of the scene than can be obtained from a single probe. We identify four modalities: multi-probe, time sequence, multi-view, and multi-messenger. Multi-probe radiography is a promising candidate for a next-generation dynamic radiographic facility. High-energy X-rays are the most frequently used probe for dynamic radiography, although recent developments show the utility of proton (pRad), electron (eRad), and neutron probe beams. Because each probing species interacts with material in the radiographic scene through quantitatively different mechanisms, each returns independent information about the scene, which can add extra constraints to the reconstruction process. How to conduct detailed, quantitative “co-analysis” of multiple data streams remains an area of active research. Multi-beam, short-pulse, laser-generated probes offer sufficient dose, an appropriate spectrum, and appropriate spatio-temporal resolution to produce high-quality dynamic radiographs. This paper reports on technology development to advance the state of the art of multi-modal/multi-probe radiography and the pursuit of both deterministic and inferential (AI/ML assisted) co-analysis methodologies to produce more constrained reconstructions from multi-modal data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

In situ multi-tier auto-ignition detection applied to dual-fuel combustion simulations

Here we use an anomaly detection methodology that is centered on analyzing fourth-order joint moments (co-kurtosis), particularly focusing on its application in auto-ignition of combustion problems with large numbers of species. Unsupervised anomaly detection is challenging to generalize across problem types and domains. A recent technique, centered on analyzing information in the fourth-order joint moment co-kurtosis, has shown promise, especially for high-dimensional scientific data. In this work we present developments to the co-kurtosis based anomaly detection method needed to make it effective and scalable for large-scale distributed scientific data, such as those generated by massively parallel simulations. An in situ co-kurtosis algorithm is employed as the anomaly detection method for identifying ignition kernels in simulations of turbulent combustion. Here, we extend an existing methodology which identifies regions of the domain where anomalies are present, and add another tier of anomaly detection where the individual samples contributing to the anomaly are identified. We apply this algorithm on-the-fly to a variety of turbulent reacting flow problems and compare it to the widely used (but significantly more expensive) chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA). We demonstrate the ability of the method to detect and identify the onset of low and high temperature ignition which can be used for computational steering, as chemical and combustion anomalies occur intermittently at spatio-temporal locations unknown a priori. Finally, we apply our lightweight in situ algorithm to an exascale high-fidelity simulation with a total of 2.4 Trillion degrees of freedom, performed using an adaptive mesh refinement solver. Furthermore, through a scalability analysis, we show that the relative computational cost of this in-situ anomaly detection algorithm compared to an iteration of the reacting flow solver is negligible.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Separability of microtearing mode and electron temperature gradient turbulence regimes

The separability of microtearing mode (MTM)-dominated and electron temperature gradient (ETG)-driven turbulence regimes is studied with multiscale nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations. The simulations are based on National Spherical Torus Experiment-like, high-confinement mode pedestal parameters, where electromagnetic perturbations are large. Linear analysis indicates a wide scale-separation between the MTM and ETG modes in binormal wavenumber space (perpendicular to the magnetic field line), with no unstable modes at intermediate scales. Likewise, single-scale nonlinear analyses, retaining ion-only or electron-only spatio-temporal scales, produce seemingly well-converged transport states. Surprisingly, the multiscale simulation, which contains both the ion and electron scales, closely follows the transport from the electron-scale simulation. This trend is robust over a wide range of electron temperature gradient. Remarkably, compared to ion-scale simulations, MTM turbulence is significantly reduced at multiscale resolution even when ETG turbulence is low. In this case, traditional ion-scale resolution overestimates the electron energy flux, and it is not possible to accurately simulate the MTM turbulence with separable ion-scale simulations. Here, while the analysis confirms the validity of electron-scale simulations for predicting the electron transport, it also indicates that multiscale simulation may be required for reproducing the turbulence spectrum for systems with coupled MTM-ETG turbulence.

H-mode↗
DOE OSTI2026

The ABCs of On-Demand Transit (ODT)

On-demand mobility - also referred to as on-demand transit (ODT) - is a form of public mobility that is flexible with respect to where and when service is provided, and ODT deployments have increased significantly in recent years. Transit agencies are becoming increasingly interested in ODT, and due to differing definitions and various service design and business model options, it can be difficult to learn about the emerging industry. This work provides an overview of the definitions of ODT, recent trends internationally and in the U.S., ODT's benefits and challenges (particularly compared to fixed-route transit), three primary service design options, system costs and funding considerations, and a metrics framework for evaluating ODT systems to ensure continued successful performance. Identified benefits include increased service areas, short ride and wait times, increased user flexibility, potential to reduce energy consumption and emissions through shared trips and smaller, right-sized vehicles, increased safety and comfort through door-to-door service, and rich data streams including granular spatio-temporal data that can be analyzed to continuously improve the service. Challenges include scaling ODT service up as small increases in ridership require additional supply to keep service quality high, serving peak times including keeping low wait times, the lack of fixed schedule being challenging for commuters, integrating ODT services with nearby transit systems, and equity for riders without smartphones who cannot track the vehicle in a mobile app. Finally, an overview of seven ODT case studies (in Texas, Missouri, New York, and Ontario, Canada) performed by NREL and related analysis of travel time, energy and emissions, costs, and equity are presented. Initial key findings include: ODT can be cost- and energy-effective compared to fixed-route transit, ODT serves more people than other transit options, and ODT system deployments can be followed by rapid growth.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactive multiscale modeling to bridge atomic properties and electrochemical performance in Li-CO 2 battery design

Li-CO 2 batteries are promising energy storage systems due to their high theoretical energy density and CO 2 fixation capability, relying on reversible Li 2 CO 3 /C formation during discharge/charge cycles. Here, we present a multiscale modeling framework integrating Density Functional Theory (DFT), Ab-Initio Molecular Dynamics (AIMD), classical Molecular Dynamics (MD), and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) to investigate atomic and cell-level properties. The considered Li-CO 2 battery consists of a lithium metal anode, an ionic liquid electrolyte, and a carbon cloth cathode with Sb 0.67 Bi 1.33 Te 3 catalyst. DFT and AIMD determined the electrical conductivities of Sb 0.67 Bi 1.33 Te 3 and Li 2 CO 3 using the Kubo–Greenwood formalism and studied the CO 2 reduction mechanism on the cathode catalyst. MD simulations calculated the CO 2 diffusion coefficient, Li + transference number, ionic conductivity, and Li + solvation structure. The FEA model, parameterized with atomistic simulation data, reproduced the available experimental voltage–capacity profile at 1 mA/cm 2 and revealed spatio-temporal variations in Li 2 CO 3 /C deposition, porosity, and CO 2 concentration dependence on discharge rates in the cathode. Accordingly, Li 2 CO 3 can form large and thin film deposits, leading to dispersed and local porosity changes at 0.1 mA/cm 2 and 1 mA/cm 2 , respectively. The capacity decreases exponentially from 81,570 mAh/g at 0.1 mA/cm 2 to 6200 mAh/g at 1 mA/cm 2 , due to pore clogging from excessive discharge product deposition that limits CO 2 transport to the cathode interior. Therefore, the performance of Li-CO 2 batteries can be improved by enhancing CO 2 transport, regulating Li 2 CO 3 deposition, and optimizing cathode architecture.

Battery performance↗
DOE OSTI2025

Compactly‐Supported Nonstationary Kernels for Computing Exact Gaussian Processes on Big Data

The Gaussian process (GP) is a widely used method for analyzing large-scale data sets, including spatio-temporal measurements of nonlinear processes that are now commonplace in the environmental sciences. Traditional implementations of GPs involve stationary kernels (also termed covariance functions) that limit their flexibility, and exact methods for inference that prevent application to data sets with more than about 10,000 points. Modern approaches to address stationarity assumptions generally fail to accommodate large data sets, while all attempts to address scalability focus on approximating the Gaussian likelihood, which can involve subjectivity and lead to inaccuracies. In this work, we explicitly derive an alternative kernel that can discover and encode both sparsity and nonstationarity. We embed the kernel within a fully Bayesian GP model and leverage high-performance computing resources to enable the analysis of massive data sets. We demonstrate the favorable performance of our novel kernel relative to existing exact and approximate GP methods across a variety of synthetic data examples. Furthermore, we conduct space–time prediction based on more than 1 million measurements of daily maximum temperature and verify that our results outperform state-of-the-art methods in the Earth sciences. More broadly, having access to exact GPs that use ultra-scalable, sparsity-discovering, nonstationary kernels allows GP methods to truly compete with a wide variety of machine learning methods.

Gaussian processes↗
DOE OSTI2025

PV backsheets survey protocol: A framework for geo-spatial field surveys for bulk material characterization and reliability analysis applied across 41 PV systems

As widespread adoption of photovoltaic (PV) technologies continues, understanding the lifetime of modules is paramount to the viability of the industry as an environmentally conscious alternative to traditional energy generation. Although power degradation can affect the total energy production of a module over its lifetime, module safety failures necessitate the removal of a module leading to a loss of not only the particular asset, but the earning potential of the device. Therefore, it is critical to ensure that the components that provide essential safety functions for PV module operate for their entire rated lifetime. PV backsheets provide necessary electrical insulation to the completed device and failure of this component is cause for a immediate removal of the module. Degradation of the PV module backsheet has led to module safety failures in large-scale installations, costing millions of dollars in damages and lost potential revenue. The spatio-temporal degradation of fielded PV modules is important to study in order to identify which modules within installations are experiencing the greatest exposure conditions and in turn have the highest chance of failure. This paper describes a comprehensive field survey protocol developed for monitoring PV module backsheet performance using solely non-destructive methods in commercial PV fields. The protocol establishes a field naming convention, sampling method, data handling requirements, and measurement procedures. By ensuring consistent data collection practices, the field survey protocol enables research groups to obtain data of uniform quality on backsheet performance over multiple years and locations. In this study, the developed protocol was implemented at forty-one PV sites. Eight different types of airside layer backsheet materials including poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF), acrylic PVDF, poly(tetrafluoroethylene-co-hexafluoropropylene-co-vinylidene fluoride) (THV), poly(vinyl fluoride) (PVF), poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET), fluoroethylene vinyl ether (FEVE), polyethylene naphthalate (PEN), and glass were identified using attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy. The field survey results show that the spatial distribution of degradation indicators are non-uniform within a particular module, individual site, and across site locations. The degradation of PV modules increased in severity for modules mounted at the edge of rows (across a field) and near the junction box (within a module). This study demonstrates the sensitivity of material performance to exposure length across different materials and climates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Learning turbulent flows with generative models for super resolution and sparse flow reconstruction

Neural operators are promising surrogates for dynamical systems but when trained with standard L 2 losses they tend to oversmooth fine-scale turbulent structures. Here, we show that combining operator learning with generative modeling overcomes this limitation. We consider three practical turbulent-flow challenges where conventional neural operators fail: spatio-temporal super-resolution, forecasting, and sparse flow reconstruction. For Schlieren jet super-resolution, an adversarially trained neural operator (adv-NO) reduces the energy-spectrum error by 15 × while preserving sharp gradients at neural operator-like inference cost. For 3D homogeneous isotropic turbulence, adv-NO trained on only 160 timesteps from a single trajectory forecasts accurately for five eddy-turnover times and offers 114 × wall-clock speed-up at inference than the baseline diffusion-based forecasters, enabling near-real-time rollouts. For reconstructing cylinder wake flows from highly sparse Particle Tracking Velocimetry-like inputs, a conditional generative model infers full 3D velocity and pressure fields with correct phase alignment and statistics. These advances enable accurate reconstruction and forecasting at low compute cost, bringing near-real-time analysis and control within reach in experimental and computational fluid mechanics.

Fluid dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing inference workloads for spatiotemporal modeling

Ensuring power grid resiliency, forecasting climate conditions, and optimization of transportation infrastructure are some of the many application areas where data is collected in both space and time. Spatiotemporal modeling is about modeling those patterns for forecasting future trends and carrying out critical decision-making by leveraging machine learning/deep learning. Once trained offline, field deployment of trained models for near real-time inference could be challenging because performance can vary significantly depending on the environment, available compute resources and tolerance to ambiguity in results. Users deploying spatiotemporal models for solving complex problems can benefit from analytical studies considering a plethora of system adaptations to understand the associated performance-quality trade-offs. To facilitate the co-design of next-generation hardware architectures for field deployment of trained models, it is critical to characterize the workloads of these deep learning (DL) applications during inference and assess their computational patterns at different levels of the execution stack. In this paper, we develop several variants of deep learning applications that use spatiotemporal data from dynamical systems. We study the associated computational patterns for inference workloads at different levels, considering relevant models (Long short-term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network and Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolution Network), DL frameworks (Tensorflow and PyTorch), precision (FP16, FP32, AMP, INT16 and INT8), inference runtime (ONNX and AI Template), post-training quantization (TensorRT) and platforms (Nvidia DGX A100 and Sambanova SN10 RDU). Overall, our findings indicate that although there is potential in mixed-precision models and post-training quantization for spatiotemporal modeling, extracting efficiency from contemporary GPU systems might be challenging. Instead, co-designing custom accelerators by leveraging optimized High Level Synthesis frameworks (such as SODA High-Level Synthesizer for customized FPGA/ASIC targets) can make workload-specific adjustments to enhance the efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring thermal runaway propagation in Li-ion batteries through high-speed X-ray imaging and thermal analysis: Impact of cell chemistry and electrical connections

Battery safety design is important to consider from the individual Li-ion cell to the level of the macro-system. On the macro-level, failure in one single cell can lead to propagation of the thermal runaway and rapidly set a whole battery pack on fire. Factors that can impact the propagation outcome, such as cell model/chemistry and electrical connection are here investigated using a combination of measurements. Several abusive tests were conducted, combining two different cell models (Molicel P42A and LG M50, both 21700s) in series and parallel connections (16 tests per configuration). Overall, a propagation outcome of 56% was measured from the 32 conducted tests, a minimum temperature of 150 °C was required to initiate propagation, and the fastest propagation occurred in 123 s. Temperature measurements were higher in series connected cells, initiating the discussion of cell chemistry and internal resistance on this effect. The difference in current-flow during thermal runaway in series and parallel connections, and how this can affect the temperature evolution is further discussed. Spatio-temporal mapping of X-ray radiography allowed us to derive the speed of thermal runaway evolution inside the battery and has shown that series connected cells, in particular P42A, occur faster. It was further observed that deviant sidewall behaviors such as temperature-induced breaches and pressure-induced ruptures occurred in P42As only respective nail-penetrated cells only.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phylodynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Lineages B.1.1.7, B.1.1.529 and B.1.617.2 in Nigeria Suggests Divergent Evolutionary Trajectories

Background: The early months of the COVID-19 pandemic were characterized by high transmission rates and mortality, compounded by the emergence of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages, including Variants of Concern (VOCs). This study investigates the phylodynamic and spatio-temporal trends of VOCs during the peak of the pandemic in Nigeria. Methods: Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data from three major VOCs circulating in Nigeria, B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and B.1.1.529 (Omicron), were analyzed using tools such as Nextclade, R Studio v 4.2.3, and BEAST X v 10.5.0. The spatial distribution, evolutionary history, viral ancestral introductions, and geographic dispersal patterns were characterized. Results: Three major lineages following WHO nomenclature were identified: Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. The Delta variant exhibited the widest geographic spread, detected in 14 states, while the Alpha variant was the least distributed, identified in only eight states but present across most epidemiological weeks studied. Evolutionary rates varied slightly, with Alpha exhibiting the slowest rate (2.66 × 10 −4 substitutions/site/year). Viral population analyses showed distinct patterns: Omicron sustained elevated population growth over time, while Delta declined after initial expansion. The earliest Times to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were consistent with the earliest outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 globally. Geographic transmission analysis indicated a predominant coastal-to-inland spread for all variants, with Omicron showing the most diffuse dispersal, highlighting commercial routes as significant drivers of viral diffusion. Conclusion: The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Nigeria was characterized by multiple variant introductions and a dominant coastal-to-inland spread, emphasizing that despite lockdown measures, commercial trade routes played a critical role in viral dissemination. These findings provide insights into pandemic control strategies and future outbreak preparedness.

Nigeria↗
DOE OSTI2025

Entropy-based feature selection for capturing impacts in Earth system models with abrupt forcing

This paper presents the development of a new entropy-based feature selection method for identifying and quantifying impacts. Here, impacts are defined as statistically significant differences in spatio-temporal fields when comparing datasets with and without an external forcing in an Earth system model. Temporal feature selection is performed by first computing the cross-fuzzy entropy to quantify similarity of patterns between two datasets and then applying changepoint detection to identify regions of statistically constant entropy. The method is used to capture temperate north surface cooling from a 9-member simulation ensemble of the Mt. Pinatubo volcanic eruption, which injected 10 Tg of SO 2 into the stratosphere. The results estimate a mean difference decrease in near surface air temperature of -0.560 K with a 99% confidence interval between -0.864 K and -0.257 K between April and November of 1992, one year following the eruption. A sensitivity analysis with decreasing SO 2 injection revealed that the impact is statistically significant at 5 Tg but not at 3 Tg. Using identified features, a dependency graph model based on a 9-day lag had significantly fewer nodes than a graph based on monthly means. Furthermore, this demonstrates our method’s ability to perform dimension reduction while still uncovering source-to-impact pathways.

Changepoint detection↗
DOE OSTI2024

DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models With 3D Diffusion Models

Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the robust analysis of risks associated with extreme weather events. While low-cost climate emulators have emerged as an alternative to emulate ESMs and enable rapid analysis of future climate, many of these emulators only provide output on at most a monthly frequency. This temporal resolution is insufficient for analyzing events that require daily characterization, such as heat waves or heavy precipitation. We propose using diffusion models, a class of generative deep learning models, to effectively downscale ESM output from a monthly to a daily frequency. Trained on a handful of ESM realizations, reflecting a wide range of radiative forcings, our DiffESM model takes monthly mean precipitation or temperature as input, and is capable of producing daily values with statistical characteristics close to ESM output. Combined with a low-cost emulator providing monthly means, this approach requires only a small fraction of the computational resources needed to run a large ensemble. We evaluate model behavior using a number of extreme metrics, showing that DiffESM closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM output it emulates in terms of the frequency and spatial characteristics of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗