Data Availability and Integrity Attacks for Power Systems via Nonlinear Spatial-Temporal Modeling
Not Available
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “spatial-temporal modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Exploring Multidimensional Spatial-Temporal Hydropower Operational Flexibilities by Modeling and Optimizing Water-Constrained Cascading Hydroelectric Systems
Because of unique characteristics such as clean and cost-competitive electricity as well as fast-ramping and storage abilities, the power industry continues to evolve its operation strategies for cascading hydroelectric (CHE) systems for providing enhanced values to the grid, especially under the deeper renewable resource integration. However, existing operation practices of CHEs predate the integration of renewables, which could prohibit the effective utilization of their inherent flexibilities in delivering maximum financial benefits and providing valuable grid services to the power system and electricity market operations. Indeed, modeling and optimizing these resource-limited while flexible CHE assets with uncertainties and imperfect information across multiple spatial-temporal dimensions present significant challenges. To facilitate CHE facility operators in effectively coordinating water usage and hydropower plant operations across multiple timescales, this project aims to fill the existing gaps by developing a suite of accurate water inflow (WI) forecast models as well as enhanced CHE modeling and optimization approaches with proper consideration of their unique characteristics, which would help explore their multidimensional spatial-temporal operational flexibility potentials. The developed approaches could better align reservoir operation strategies with variability and uncertainty of future water availability. They can also promote more effective utilization of multidimensional spatial-temporal hydropower operational flexibility potentials by designing long-term evacuation plans of reservoirs and short-term operation of CHEs, along with their coordination with other types of renewables. The project leverages various resources to facilitate the research and development activities, including actual characteristics data of CHE systems and a library of current and future cases of Portland General Electric (PGE). These realistic data enable the project team to study how to maximize the value of CHEs under current and future portfolios and evaluate opportunities to improve operation practices.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Analytical Models of Frequency and Voltage in Large-Scale All-Inverter Power Systems
Low-order frequency response models for power systems have a decades-long history in optimization and control problems such as unit commitment, economic dispatch, and wide-area control. With a few exceptions, these models are built upon the Newtonian mechanics of synchronous generators, assuming that the frequency dynamics across a system are approximately homogeneous, and assume the dynamics of nodal voltages for most operating conditions are negligible, and thus are not directly computed at all buses. As a result, the use of system frequency models results in the systematic underestimation of frequency minimum nadir and maximum RoCoF, and provides no insight into the reactive power-voltage dynamics. This paper proposes a low-order model of both frequency and voltage response in grid-forming inverter-dominated power systems. The proposed model accounts for spatial-temporal variations in frequency and voltage behavior across a system and as a result, demonstrates the heterogeneity of frequency response in future renewable power systems. Electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations are used to validate the utility, accuracy, and computational efficiency of these models, setting the basis for them to serve as fast, scalable alternatives to EMT simulation, especially when dealing with very large-scale systems, for both planning and operational studies.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Echo state network for coarsening dynamics of charge density waves
An echo state network (ESN) is a type of reservoir computer that uses a recurrent neural network with a sparsely connected hidden layer. Compared with other recurrent neural networks, one great advantage of ESN is the simplicity of its training process. Yet, despite the seemingly restricted learnable parameters, ESN has been shown to successfully capture the spatial-temporal dynamics of complex patterns. Here we build an ESN to model the coarsening dynamics of charge-density waves (CDWs) in a semiclassical Holstein model, which exhibits a checkerboard electron density modulation at half-filling stabilized by a commensurate lattice distortion. The inputs to the ESN are local CDW order parameters in a finite neighborhood centered around a given site, while the output is the predicted CDW order of the center site at the next time step. Special care is taken in the design of couplings between hidden layer and input nodes to ensure lattice symmetries are properly incorporated into the ESN model. Since the model predictions depend only on CDW configurations of a finite domain, the ESN is scalable and transferrable in the sense that a model trained on dataset from a small system can be directly applied to dynamical simulations on larger lattices. Furthermore, our work opens avenues for efficient dynamical modeling of pattern formations in functional electron materials.
2-dimensional systems↗
Artificial Intelligence for Enhancing Multiscale Analysis: Buildings Focus
This project aims to develop multi-scale building energy data, potentially improving the representation of the U.S. buildings sector in GCAM-USA, an U.S.-focused human-energy-Earth systems model. Existing building energy datasets are typically limited to national or regional levels, which constrains the ability of models to capture fine-scale human-energy-Earth systems interactions and reduces their relevance for decision-making on issues such as energy security, resilience, and energy planning. By leveraging AI and advanced data integration methods, this work fuses multiple existing datasets to enhance the physical and geographic representation of both residential and commercial building energy use. So far, progress includes processing residential building data, designing the data structure for commercial buildings, and testing AI approaches for integrating datasets and addressing spatial-temporal gaps. This effort can not only advances GCAM-USA’s capability in modeling the buildings sector but also supports broader DOE missions, such as developing digital testbeds, enhancing grid resilience analysis, and improving building–energy system modeling at decision-relevant scales.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Modeling Framework for the Assessment of a Sustainable Hydrogen Production and Supply Chain Network in California
The cost-effective and sustainable deployment of hydrogen supply and demand networks, especially in large economic regions like California, can be challenging considering the spatial-temporal availability and variability of the different actors across the network such as production processes, distribution modes, and end-users. In this presentation, we will provide an overview and demonstration of a modeling framework used to assess the environmental, economic, and human health impacts of plausible hydrogen production and supply chain networks in California. Scenarios focus on green hydrogen production pathways using water electrolysis and biomass gasification. End-use applications included in the model are transit, medium and heavy-duty trucking, port authorities, and power and aviation companies that currently consume natural gas, diesel, and aviation fuel for their day-to-day operation. Representative locations for hydrogen production and end-use are based on recent projections of the hydrogen economy in California. All mass and energy flows, as well as estimated emissions, are based on H2A process model designs and projections of technology performance, literature review, and LBNL process, economic and life cycle modeling, and not on company data for the sake of this presentation. Human health impacts are included following methodologies developed for the University of California Irvine HyDeal project. Life cycle phases associated with hydrogen production include feedstock preparation (water and biomass), energy production and consumption (renewable, grid, and combination of renewable and grid electricity), maintenance (chemical utilization in electrolysis and natural gas combustion in gasification), carbon sequestration, hydrogen storage (compression and liquefaction), and distribution (truck and pipeline). We apply the framework utilizing California specific emission factors, financial data, and human health damages and explore the impact of network characteristics on results. Example variations include: the inclusion of policy incentives or not, different representations of the electricity grid and source, electrolysis versus gasification versus combinations of both for production, liquefaction versus compression based on producer capacity cutoffs, transportation truck versus pipeline based on existing infrastructure, and ultimate end use. Comparison of these different scenarios can help inform future projects by demonstrating the trade-offs among environmental, economic, and human health impacts. This model, automated in R, is a starting platform upon which new analysis, modeling capabilities, locations, and emission factors can be rapidly tested and integrated.
Zaki, Mohammed Tamim↗
Physics-Informed Graph Neural Networks for Collaborative Dynamic Reconfiguration and Voltage Regulation in Unbalanced Distribution Systems
Network reconfiguration has long been employed as a strategic approach to minimize power distribution system losses and effectively regulate voltage levels. Tap-changing voltage regulators are also critical for controlling bus voltages, especially in accommodating the increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) with intermittent outputs. This paper introduces novel methodologies to address the challenges of dynamic reconfiguration and optimal tap setting in unbalanced three-phase distribution systems. We propose an approximated mixed-integer quadratically constrained program (MIQCP) to model dynamic reconfiguration, along with a pioneering formulation for voltage regulator (VR) tap-setting based on Special Ordered Set type 1 (SOS1). To mitigate computational complexity, we propose a physics-informed spatial-temporal graph convolutional network (STGCN) with an integrated link classifier. The proposed approach enables efficient solution generation by fixing specific variables in the MIQCP instance and solving the simplified sub-MIP using an MIP solver. Numerical studies demonstrate the superior prediction accuracy of our STGCN model compared to baseline neural network models, resulting in reduced DER curtailment and voltage deviation with shorter computation time.
dynamic reconfiguration↗
Quasinormal Coupled-Mode Analysis of Dynamic Gain in Exceptional-Point Lasers
One of the key features of lasers operating near exceptional points (EPs) is that the gain medium can support an oscillating population inversion above a pump threshold, leading to self-modulated laser dynamics. This unusual behavior opens up new possibilities for frequency comb generation and temporal modulation. However, the dynamic population inversion couples signals with different frequencies and is difficult to capture using conventional temporal coupled-mode theory (TCMT) based on stationary saturable gain. In this paper, we develop a perturbative coupled-mode analysis framework to capture the spatial-temporal dynamics of near-EP lasers. By decomposing discrete frequency generation into multiple excitations of resonant modes, our analysis establishes a minimal physical model that translates the local distribution of dynamic population-inversion into a resonant modal interpretation of laser gain. Furthermore, this work enables the exploration of unique properties in this self-time-modulated systems, such as time-varying scattering and nonreciprocal transmission.
Absorption↗
Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field
In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.
Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗
Thermal Characterization and Exhumation of Northwest San Juan Basin Area, NM
The San Juan Basin (SJB), located in southwestern Colorado northwestern New Mexico, containing Paleozoic through middle Cenozoic strata, formed as a partitioned basin approximately 80 Ma in response to the Laramide orogeny. The SJB is a commercially mature, petroleum-producing basin, and currently being explored for CCUS and geothermal resources. Modern heat flow within the SJB is spatially variable with higher geothermal gradients in its northern and eastern portions. The temporal history of the basin thermal history is essential for understanding capacity for carbon storage and geothermal exploration. We present thermochronometric analyses of two surface and two subsurface samples to constrain spatial-temporal thermal evolution of the northwestern San Juan Basin. Apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronometric analyses were conducted on Cliff House and Kirtland Formation outcrops and subsurface samples of the Ojo Alamo and Pictured Cliffs Formations from a DOE funded, CCUS project pilot-well. In addition, vitrinite reflectance data and 1D basin modelling constrain possible time-temperature pathways of the samples in an area where no previous studies have constrained the uplift/exhumation of the Hogback Monocline using thermochronometry. Modeling suggests that elevated subsurface temperatures developed simultaneously with regional late Oligiocene volcanism in the San Juan Volcanic field and timing of maximum burial in the SJB. Late Miocene to Pliocene cooling/exhumation through the apatite (U-Th)/He partial retention zone support stratigraphic evidence of the Colorado Plateau uplift, possibly regional epeirogenic uplift driven by mantle processes.
02 PETROLEUM↗
Nature-GL: A Revolutionary Learning Paradigm Unleashing Nature’s Power in Real-World Spatial-Temporal Graph Learning
Spatial-Temporal Graph Learning (ST-GL) is a prominent research area due to its unique capability to effectively learn real-world graphs. Applications of ST-GL pose stringent and various demands on not only real-time inference with low energy cost and high ac- curacy but also fast training. Unfortunately, as Moore’s Law approaches its limits and ST-GL model complexity drastically grows, the gap between digital hardware’s computational power and ST- GL application demands is widening. In response, this paper introduces Nature-GL, a nature-powered graph learning paradigm that exploits the principle of entropy increase to advance graph learning. In particular, Nature-GL transforms both the training and inference of real-valued ST-GL into electron-speed natural anneal- ing processes of a parameterized dynamical system that represents the target graphs. Experimental results across four real-world ap- plications with six datasets demonstrate that Nature-GL achieves orders-of-magnitude speedups in both training and inference, delivering higher accuracy compared to Graph Neural Networks.
Liu, Chuan [University of Rochester]↗
Non-propagating structures and propagating waves in solar wind turbulence revealed by simulations and observations
Structures and waves are common features of solar wind turbulence at various scales. The interplay between structures and waves is important for processes such as the turbulent energy cascade, plasma heating, and particle scattering. Our understanding of turbulence has been advanced by not only new space missions and numerical simulations, but also techniques that have been developed to interpret the rapidly growing turbulence data. We review basic models of turbulence with a specific focus on the analysis methods for understanding magnetic structures and waves. MHD and kinetic waves in single-spacecraft time series measurements can be identified through mode decomposition or their characteristic polarization signatures. The structures in this paper are considered as zero-frequency, non-propagating or convected modes embedded in the solar wind. The synergy between observations and simulations is most evident in the application of spatial-temporal analysis to multi-spacecraft observation and turbulence simulations. The spatial-temporal analysis has greatly improved our understanding of structures and waves in turbulence. We conclude by discussing prospects for future research.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Interpretable Models for Workflow Differentiation in High-Performance Scientific Networks
Scientific workflows in high-performance networks spawn hundreds of interdependent flows that must be managed collectively—yet existing network classifiers treat each flow in isolation, leading to fragmented QoS decisions and missed interflow patterns. We present a novel traffic classification solution that operates at the workflow level, distinguishing entire filetransfer operations from streaming analytics by capturing how concurrent flows interact and burst together. We introduce a workflow identification window (WIW) that ingests raw packet headers from parallel flows into unified tensors, preserving the spatial-temporal patterns that differentiate scientific workflows. This approach achieves 98.7% accuracy using CNN, LSTM, and hybrid architectures, while maintaining 84% accuracy on production traffic collected a week later—demonstrating robustness to temporal drift. By integrating SHAP and GradCAM explainability, we reveal that early-packet timing patterns and cross-flow correlations drive classification decisions, providing operators with interpretable insights. Our system enables coherent workflow-level QoS enforcement and dynamic bandwidth allocation in scientific networks, eliminating manual per-flow configuration while maintaining classification latency at millisecond level.
Giannakou, Anna [LBL, Berkeley]↗