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This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).
We have been developing a simplified spatial-temporal discrimination model similar to our simplified spatial model in that masking is assumed to be a function of the local visible contrast energy. The overall spatial-temporal sensitivity of the model is calibrated to predict the detectability of targets on a uniform background. To calibrate the spatial-temporal integration functions that define local visible contrast energy, spatial-temporal masking data are required. Observer thresholds were measured (2IFC) for the detection of a 12 msec target stimulus in the presence of a 700 msec mask. Targets were 1, 3 or 9 c/deg sine wave gratings. Masks were either one of these gratings or two of them combined. The target was presented in 17 temporal positions with respect to the mask, including positions before, during and after the mask. Peak masking was found near mask onset and offset for 1 and 3 c/deg targets, while masking effects were more nearly uniform during the mask for the 9 c/deg target. As in the purely spatial case, the simplified model can not predict all the details of masking as a function of masking component spatial frequencies, but overall the prediction errors are small.
The paper examines the time-dependent models of the aurora which show that various ionospheric parameters respond to the onset of auroral ionization with different time histories. A pass of the Atmosphere Explorer C satellite over Poker Flat, Alaska, and ground based photometric and photographic observations have been used to resolve the time-space ambiguity of a specific auroral event. The density of the O(+), NO(+), O2(+), and N2(+) ions, the electron density, and the electron temperature observed at 280 km altitude in a 50 km wide segment of an auroral arc are predicted by the model if particle precipitation into the region commenced about 11 min prior to the overpass.
Methods are needed for evaluating the quality of augmented visual displays (AVID). Computational quality metrics will help summarize, interpolate, and extrapolate the results of human performance tests with displays. The FLM Vision group at NASA Ames has been developing computational models of visual processing and using them to develop computational metrics for similar problems. For example, display modeling systems use metrics for comparing proposed displays, halftoning optimizing methods use metrics to evaluate the difference between the halftone and the original, and image compression methods minimize the predicted visibility of compression artifacts. The visual discrimination models take as input two arbitrary images A and B and compute an estimate of the probability that a human observer will report that A is different from B. If A is an image that one desires to display and B is the actual displayed image, such an estimate can be regarded as an image quality metric reflecting how well B approximates A. There are additional complexities associated with the problem of evaluating the quality of radar and IR enhanced displays for AVID tasks. One important problem is the question of whether intruding obstacles are detectable in such displays. Although the discrimination model can handle detection situations by making B the original image A plus the intrusion, this detection model makes the inappropriate assumption that the observer knows where the intrusion will be. Effects of signal uncertainty need to be added to our models. A pilot needs to make decisions rapidly. The models need to predict not just the probability of a correct decision, but the probability of a correct decision by the time the decision needs to be made. That is, the models need to predict latency as well as accuracy. Luce and Green have generated models for auditory detection latencies. Similar models are needed for visual detection. Most image quality models are designed for static imagery. Watson has been developing a general spatial-temporal vision model to optimize video compression techniques. These models need to be adapted and calibrated for AVID applications.
Our quantitative understanding of free tropospheric (FT) chemistry is quite poor. State-of-the-art regional air quality models (e.g., US EPA's CMAQ) perform very poorly in simulating FT chemistry, with Uniform ozone around 70 ppb throughout the FT in summer, while ozonesonde data show much higher levels of ozone and much spatial-temporal structure. Such models completely neglect lightning-NOx (LNOx) emissions (the most significant source of NOx in the FT), and also contain large uncertainties in the specifications of intercontinental transport, stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and PBLFT exchange (PFTE). Global air chemistry models include LNOx, but in very crude fashion, with the frequency and distribution of lightning being based on modeled cloud parameters (hence large uncertainty), lightning energetics being assumed to be constant for all flashes (literature value, while in reality there is at least a two-orders of magnitude variability from flash-to-flash), and the production of NOx in the surrounding heated air, per Joule of heating, being assumed to be constant also (literature value, while in fact it is a non-linear function of the dissipated heat and local air density, p). This situation is commonly blamed on paucity of pertinent observational data, but for the USA, there is now a wealth of surface- and satellite-based data of lightning available to permit much improved observation-based estimation of LNOx emissions. In the FT, such NOx has a long residence time, and also the ozone production efficiency from NOx there is considerably higher than in the PBL. It is, therefore, of critical importance in FT chemistry. This paper will describe the approach and data products of an ongoing NSSTC project aimed at a much-improved quantification of not only LNOx production on the scale of continental USA based on local and regional lightning observations, but also of intercontinental transport, STE and PFTE, all in upgraded simulations of tropospheric transport and chemistry. In our approach for LNOx, (a) we utilize continuous observed lightning information from the NLDN ground network and from satellite imagers (OTD and LIS) to quantify lightning frequency and distribution at the spatial-temporal scales of models such as CMAQ; (b) we develop new methodologies to quantify flash-specific lightning energy dissipation as heat (epsilon) using data from the research-grade lightning measurement facility at NASA-KSC, and to parameterize epsilon based on regional lightning monitoring data (ground- and satellite-based); and, (c) we develop a new parameterization of NOx production as a function of epsilon and rho. Based on such observation-based information, we are working to develop a gridded, episodic LNOx emissions inventory for the USA for use in models like CMAQ. We are also developing approaches for global(MOZART)- regional(CMAQ) chemistry coupling to improve intercontinental transport and STE. Finally, we are developing new methodologies for assimilation of satellite-observed (GOES) clouds into meteorological modeling (MM5), to improve PFTE and to optimize co-location of cloud convection and observed lightning. We will incorporate these improvements in CMAQ simulations over the USA to better understand FT processes and chemistry, and its impact on ground-level ozone.
The Earth's fluid outer core is in vigorous convection through much of the Earth's history. In addition to generating and maintaining Earth s time-varying magnetic field (geodynamo), the core convection also generates mass redistribution in the core and a dynamical pressure field on the core-mantle boundary (CMB). All these shall result in various core-mantle interactions, and contribute to surface geodynamic observables. For example, electromagnetic core-mantle coupling arises from finite electrically conducting lower mantle; gravitational interaction occurs between the cores and the heterogeneous mantle; mechanical coupling may also occur when the CMB topography is aspherical. Besides changing the mantle rotation via the coupling torques, the mass-redistribution in the core shall produce a spatial-temporal gravity anomaly. Numerical modeling of the core dynamical processes contributes in several geophysical disciplines. It helps explain the physical causes of surface geodynamic observables via space geodetic techniques and other means, e.g. Earth's rotation variation on decadal time scales, and secular time-variable gravity. Conversely, identification of the sources of the observables can provide additional insights on the dynamics of the fluid core, leading to better constraints on the physics in the numerical modeling. In the past few years, our core dynamics modeling efforts, with respect to our MoSST model, have made significant progress in understanding individual geophysical consequences. However, integrated studies are desirable, not only because of more mature numerical core dynamics models, but also because of inter-correlation among the geophysical phenomena, e.g. mass redistribution in the outer core produces not only time-variable gravity, but also gravitational core-mantle coupling and thus the Earth's rotation variation. They are expected to further facilitate multidisciplinary studies of core dynamics and interactions of the core with other components of the Earth.
A series of one and two dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of a ring wave in interstellar gas disks was completed. These calculations included nonlinear source terms to model the effects of interstellar interactions and star formation, as well as the spatial-temporal gas flow. Toomre's kinematical model was merged with the Arnold, Shandarin, and Zeldovich 'pancake' theory of caustics in galaxy formation. The resulting theory can describe almost all the structure in restricted three-body simulations of single-pass collisions, even with multi-component potentials. Off-center galactic collisions were studied to understand the dynamics involved. Multi-color optical and near-infrared observations of faint tidal features were performed in about two dozen interacting galaxies selected from the Arp atlas. This sample provided evidence for ongoing star formation in tidal structures, and even enhancements of star formation in some cases. The task of assembling the data for gas-rich, late-type galaxies, was undertaken to see if a more coherent picture of the gas distribution would emerge from the more complete data. Analytic solutions of the equations with subsonic flows to balance gas consumption for expulsion form a galactic fountain were also derived.
A model-based Kalman estimator is developed for spatial-temporal filtering of noise and other degradations in velocity and depth maps derived from image sequences or cinema. As an illustration of the proposed procedures, edge information from image sequences of rigid objects is used in the processing of the velocity maps by selecting from a series of models for directional adaptive filtering. Adaptive filtering then allows for noise reduction while preserving sharpness in the velocity maps. Results from several synthetic and real image sequences are given.
MODIS 4 NACP is a NASA-funded project supporting the North American Carbon Program (NACP). The purpose of this Advancing Collaborative Connections for Earth-Sun System Science (ACCESS) project is to provide researchers with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) biophysical data products that are custom tailored for use in NACP model studies. Standard MODIS biophysical products provide used to improve our understanding on the climate and ecosystem changes. However, direct uses of the MODIS biophysical parameters are constrained by retrieval quality and cloud contamination. Another challenge that NACP users face is acquiring MODIS data in formats and at spatial-temporal resolutions consistent with other data sets they use. We have been working closely with key NACP users to tailor the MODIS products to fit their needs. First, we provide new temporally smoothed and spatially continuous MODIS biophysical data sets. Second, we are distributing MODIS data at suitable spatial-temporal resolutions and in formats consistent with other data integration into model studies.
This study examines the use of satellite-derived nowcasted (short-term forecasted) rainfall over 3-hour time periods to gain an equivalent time increment in initializing a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model used for predicting convective rainfall events over the Korean peninsula. Infrared (IR) window measurements from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to specify latent heating for a spinup period of the model - but in future time -- thus initializing in advance of actual time in the framework of a prediction scenario. The main scientific objective of the study is to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach insofar as data assimilation, in which the nowcasted assimilation data are derived independently of the prognostic model itself. Although there have been various recent improvements in formulating the dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics of mesoscale models, as well as computer advances which allow the use of high resolution cloud-resolving grids and explicit latent heating over regional domains, spinup remains at the forefront of unresolved mesoscale modeling problems. In general, non-realistic spinup limits the skill in predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of convection and precipitation, primarily in the early hours of a. forecast, stemming from standard prognostic variables not representing the initial diabatic heating field produced by the ambient convection and cloud fields. The long-term goal of this research is to improve short-range (12-hour) quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) over the Korean peninsula through the use of innovative data assimilation methods based on geosynchronous satellite measurements. As a step in th~s direction, a non-standard data assimilation experiment in conjunction with GMS-retrieved nowcasted rainfall information introduced to the mesoscale model is conducted. The 3-hourly precipitation forecast information is assimilated through nudging the associated diabatic heating during the early stages of a forecast period. This procedure is expected to enhance details in the moisture field during model integration, and thus improve spinup performance, assuming the errors in the future time latent heating data ate less than intrinsic model background errors.
This paper is just the three-page introduction to a Special Issue of Advances in Meteorology focusing on desert dust. It provides a paragraph each on 13 accepted papers, most relating to the used of satellite data to assess attributes or distribution of airborne desert dust. As guest Associate Editors of this issue, we organized the papers into a systematic whole, beginning with large-scale transport and seasonal behavior, then to regional dust transport, transport history, and climate impacts, first in the Mediterranean region, then India and central Asia, and finally focusing on transport model assessment and the use of lidar as a technique to constrain dust spatial-temporal distribution.
An analytic model for the expansion of a chemically reacting gas in the upper atmosphere is discussed. The spatial-temporal distribution of released particles in the initial regime is described on the basis of self-similar solutions of Euler's equations. In the case of transition to the diffusion regime an approximate solution of the kinetic equation with the collision integral in the form of BGK is performed. Gravitation and the atmospheric inhomogeneity are taken into account, The diffusion regime is described by an analytic solution of the diffusion equation in an exponential atmosphere taking account of possible losses of the gas due to chemical reactions. Some peculiarities of the expansion of various gases as well as the possibility of applying the model for describing ionospheric 'holes' are discussed.
Numerical dynamo solutions have traditionally been generated entirely by a set of self-consistent differential equations that govern the spatial-temporal variation of the magnetic field, velocity field and other fields related to dynamo processes. In particular, those solutions are obtained with parameters very different from those appropriate for the Earth s core. Geophysical application of the numerical results therefore depends on correct understanding of the differences (errors) between the model outputs and the true states (truth) in the outer core. Part of the truth can be observed at the surface in the form of poloidal magnetic field. To understand these differences, or errors, we generate new initial model state (analysis) by assimilating sequentially the model outputs with the surface geomagnetic observations using an optimal interpolation scheme. The time evolution of the core state is then controlled by our MoSST core dynamics model. The final outputs (forecasts) are then compared with the surface observations as a means to test the success of the assimilation. We use the surface geomagnetic data back to year 1900 for our studies, with 5-year forecast and 20-year analysis periods. We intend to use the result; to understand time variation of the errors with the assimilation sequences, and the impact of the assimilation on other unobservable quantities, such as the toroidal field and the fluid velocity in the core.
Floods and associated landslides are one of the most widespread natural hazards on Earth, responsible for tens of thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in property damage every year. During 1993-2002, over 1000 of the more than 2,900 natural disasters reported were due to floods. These floods and associated landslides claimed over 90,000 lives, affected over 1.4 billion people and cost about $210 billion. The impact of these disasters is often felt most acutely in less developed regions. In many countries around the world, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data due to lack of surface observing networks. Satellite observations can be of essential value in improving our understanding of the occurrence of hazardous events and possibly in lessening their impact on local economies and in reducing injuries, if they can be used to create reliable warning systems in cost-effective ways. This article addressed these opportunities and challenges by describing a combination of satellite-based real-time precipitation estimation with land surface characteristics as input, with empirical and numerical models to map potential of landslides and floods. In this article, a framework to detect floods and landslides related to heavy rain events in near-real-time is proposed. Key components of the framework are: a fine resolution precipitation acquisition system; a comprehensive land surface database; a hydrological modeling component; and landslide and debris flow model components. A key precipitation input dataset for the integrated applications is the NASA TRMM-based multi-satellite precipitation estimates. This dataset provides near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 hours and 0.25deg x 0.25deg. By careful integration of remote sensing and in-situ observations, and assimilation of these observations into hydrological and landslide/debris flow models with surface topographic information, prediction of useful probabilistic maps of landslide and floods for emergency management in a timely manner is possible. Early results shows that the potential exists for successful application of satellite precipitation data in improving/developing global monitoring systems for flood/landslide disaster preparedness and management. The scientific and technological prototype can be first applied in a representative test-bed and then the information deliverables for the region can be tailored to the societal and economic needs of the represented affected countries.
Experimental, potentially real-time systems to detect floods and landslides related to heavy rain events are described. A key basis for these applications is high time resolution satellite rainfall analyses. Rainfall is the primary cause for devastating floods across the world. However, in many countries, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data due to insufficient ground networks and absence of data sharing along many trans-boundary river basins. Remotely sensed precipitation from the NASA's TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) operational system (near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 hours and 0.25deg x 0.25deg) is used to monitor extreme precipitation events. Then these data are ingested into a macro-scale hydrological model which is parameterized using spatially distributed elevation, soil and land cover datasets available globally from satellite remote sensing. Preliminary flood results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events, with implementation on a quasi-global basis underway. With the availability of satellite rainfall analyses at fine time resolution, it has also become possible to assess landslide risk on a near-global basis. Early results show that landslide occurrence is closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of TRMM rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslides triggered by rainfall is related to rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms. For the purpose of prediction, an empirical TMPA-based rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed and shown to have skill in determining potential areas of landslides. These experimental findings, in combination with landslide surface susceptibility information based on satellite-based land surface information, form a starting point towards a potential operational landslide monitoring/warning system around the globe.
Recent evidence has shown that a subtle alternation in the surface ECG (electrical alternans) may be correlated with the susceptibility to ventricular fibrillation. In the present work, the author presents evidence that a mechanical alternation in the heartbeat (mechanical alternans) generally accompanies electrical alternans. A simple finite-element computer model which emulates both the electrical and the mechanical activity of the heart is presented. A pilot animal study is also reported. The computer model and the animal study both found that (1) there exists a regime of combined electrical-mechanical alternans during the transition from a normal rhythm towards a fibrillatory rhythm, (2) the detected degree of alternation is correlated with the relative instability of the rhythm, and (3) the electrical and mechanical alternans may result from a dispersion in local electrical properties leading to a spatial-temporal alternation in the electrical conduction process.
The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.
Investigation of astronomical objects and tracking of man-made space objects lead to generation of huge amount of information for optical processing. Traditional big-size optical elements (such as optical telescopes) have a tendency for increasing aperture size in order to improve sensitivity. This tendency leads to increasing of weight and costs of optical systems and stimulate search for the new, more adequate technologies. One approach to meet these demands is based on developing of holographic optical elements using new polymeric materials. We have investigated possibility to use new material PQ-PMMA (phenantrenequinone-doped PMMA (Polymethyl Methacrylate)) for fabrication of highly selective optical filters and fast spatial-temporal light modulators. This material was originally developed in Russia and later was tested in CalTech as a candidate material for optical storage. Our theoretical investigation predicts the possibility of realization of fast spatial and temporal light modulation, using volume reflection-type spectral filter. We have developed also model of holographic-grating recording in PQ-PMMA material, based on diffusional amplification. This mechanism of recording allow to receive high diffraction efficiency during recording of reflection-type volume holographic grating (holographic mirror). We also investigated recording of dynamic gratings in the photorefractive crystals LiNbO3 (LN) for space-based spectroscopy and for adaptive correction of aberrations in the telescope's mirrors. We have shown, that specific 'photogalvanic' mechanism of holographic grating recording in LN allow to realize recording of blazed gratings for volume and surface gratings. Possible applications of dynamic gratings in LN for amplification of images, transmitted through an imaging fiber guide was also demonstrated.