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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A New Phase for Space Weather

As we move into the declining phase of solar cycle 25, the sunspot number is going down but space weather impacts are not disappearing. Solar energetic particle events, large x-ray flares, and geomagnetic storms are still happening and the declining phase will bring a different balance of hazards. The need for space weather science, space weather applications, and an interface between research, application, and stakeholder communities has not passed. Observations and insights from solar cycle 25 will continue to help us prepare for solar cycle 26, so that we approach the next solar maximum with better predictions, better understanding of outcomes, and a stronger community enabling more confident mitigation and clearer outreach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Space Weather: New Directions for a Maturing Field and Journal

As space weather has significantly matured as a field, the Space Weather journal is implementing two major changes: a new scope and a new Editor-in-Chief (EiC). As part of the revised scope, the novelty of submitted manuscripts is now a major quality to be assessed by the editors and reviewers. The goal of the journal remains primarily to advance our understanding of fundamental space phenomena that have direct impact on technology, to improve the forecasting of such phenomena, and to provide space environment climatology models. This new scope is the last major change implemented by the departing EiC who will be succeeded in January 2026 by Dr. Steven K. Morley. The new EiC will now oversee a large editorial board and a journal with over 400 submissions in 2025.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Review of the August 1972 and March 1989 (Allen) Space Weather Events: Can We Learn Anything New From Them?

Abstract Updated summaries of the August 1972 and March 1989 space weather events have been constructed. The features of these two events are compared to the Carrington 1859 event and a few other major space weather events. It is concluded that solar active regions release energy in a variety of forms (X‐rays, EUV photons, visible light, coronal mass ejection (CME) plasmas and fields) and they in turn can produce other energetic effects (solar energetic particles (SEPs), magnetic storms) in a variety of ways. It is clear that there is no strong one‐to‐one relationship between these various energy sinks. The energy is often distributed differently from one space weather event to the next. Concerning SEPs accelerated at interplanetary CME (ICME) shocks, it is concluded that the Fermi mechanism associated with quasi‐parallel shocks is relatively weak and that the gradient drift mechanism (electric fields) at quasi‐perpendicular shocks will produce harder spectra and higher fluxes. If the 4 August 1972 intrinsic magnetic cloud condition (southward interplanetary magnetic field instead of northward) and the interplanetary Sun to 1 au conditions were different, a 4 August 1972 magnetic storm and magnetospheric dawn‐to‐dusk electric fields substantially larger than the Carrington event would have occurred. Under these special interplanetary conditions, a Miyake et al. (2012), https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11123 ‐like extreme SEP event may have been formed. The long duration complex 1989 storm was probably greater than the Carrington storm in the sense that the total ring current particle energy was larger.

Tsurutani, Bruce T.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of the space weather conditions on the Earth magnetosphere soft X-ray emissivity

The aim of the study is to model and characterize the soft X-ray emissivity on the Earth magnetosphere for different space weather conditions (SWC), providing information to interpret the soft X-ray measurements of the Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer space mission. The MHD code pluto in spherical coordinates is used to perform parametric studies with respect to the solar wind (SW) dynamic pressure (considering density and velocity effects independently) as well as the IMF intensity and orientation, predicting the soft X-ray emissivity for different SWC. The integrated soft X-ray emissivity inside the magnetosheath is calculated as a proxy of the soft X-ray emission dependencies with the SWC independently of the satellite orbit and camera line of sight. The analysis indicates fluctuations of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation and magnitude may significantly affect the measured soft X-ray emission although changes in the SW dynamic pressure should be the main source of variability. The southward IMF orientation leads to the configuration with the largest soft X-ray emissivity and northward to the lowest. Strongly distorted magnetospheres explored in configurations showing SW and IMF parameters comparable to the impact of interplanetary coronal mass ejections may show a decrease of the soft X-ray emissivity as the IMF magnitude increases, explained by the strong magnetosphere compression and constriction of the magnetosheath region where the soft X-ray emissivity maximum is located. The simulations also indicate large excursions of the soft X-ray emissivity maximum inside the magnetosheath as the IMF magnitude and SW dynamic pressure fluctuate particularly for radial and ecliptic IMF orientations.

Earth↗
DOE OSTI2025

Code Release for “Unlocking Extreme Space Weather through Advanced Modeling of Legacy Vela Spacecraft” ER

The software being developed for this project has two mains aims. First, a Bayesian Model Calibration (BMC) procedure is being developed to calibrate a spallation model that simulates protons hitting a spacecraft orbiting earth to real data. The procedure will be developed for general data (there is no data release requested as part of this code release). Second, an inverse physics modeling task is being undertaken to map the number of resulting neutrons observed from this process to the expected number of protons that hit the model. This second task is of statistical interest; to publish on it, the code will need to be open source.

Murph, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spurious solar-wind effects on acceleration noise in LISA Pathfinder

Spurious solar-wind effects are a potential noise source in future Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) measurements. One noise coupling mechanism is constrained by estimating solar-wind effects on acceleration noise in LISA Pathfinder (LPF). While LISA is designed for drag-free differential measurement, predicting the realistic impact both bounds the operational environment and assesses whether LISA could provide serendipitous space-weather observations. Data from NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), situated at the L1 Lagrange point, serves as a reliable source of solar-wind data. The data sets are compared over the 114 d time period from 1 March 2016 to 23 June 2016. This period gives the longest readily-available open data set, without interference from other commissioning activities. To evaluate space weather effects, the data from both satellites are formatted, gap-filled/interpolated, and fast-Fourier transformed for amplitude spectral density and coherence comparisons. Solar wind effects are not seen in a coherence plot between LPF and ACE; modest coherence in the planned LISA observational frequency band can be attributed to chance. This result indicates that measurable correlation due to solar-wind acceleration noise over 3 month timescales will be a negligible noise source. LISA is unlikely to inform solar wind measurements routinely. Another source of noise from the Sun, solar radiation pressure, is estimated to impart greater acceleration noise, but has yet to be analyzed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Autonomous Ion Mass Spectrometer Sentry (AIMSS)

Satellite measurements of plasma density and temperature help predict the intensity of geomagnetic storms, which can impact satellites, communications, and power systems. Accurate forecasting requires knowledge of plasma composition. However, typical orbital mass spectrometers have difficulty distinguishing between nitrogen (N+) and oxygen (O+) ions due to their similar masses. This limitation makes it difficult to validate modern space weather models, which depend on accurate knowledge of ion composition in near-Earth space. N+ and O+ ions behave differently in space due to differences in their origin, transport, and loss mechanisms. Improving our ability to distinguish between these ions is critical for understanding and predicting space weather.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

PreMevE‐MEO: Predicting Ultra‐Relativistic Electrons Using Observations From GPS Satellites

Abstract Ultra‐relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron‐volt (MeV) pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics, and thus specifying those highly energetic electrons has a significant meaning to space weather communities. Here we report the latest progress in developing our predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, primarily driven by electron measurements made along medium‐Earth‐orbits (MEO), is called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)‐MEO model that nowcasts ultra‐relativistic electron flux distributions across the whole outer belt. Model inputs include >2 MeV electron fluxes observed in MEOs by a fleet of GPS satellites as well as electrons measured by one Los Alamos satellite in the geosynchronous orbit. We developed an innovative Sparse Multi‐Inputs Latent Ensemble NETwork (SmileNet) which combines convolutional neural networks with transformers, and we used long‐term in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission to train, validate, optimize, and test the model. It is shown that PreMevE‐MEO can provide hourly nowcasts with high model performance efficiency and high correlation with observations. This prototype PreMevE‐MEO model demonstrates the feasibility of making high‐fidelity predictions driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure in MEO, thus has great potential of growing into an invaluable space weather operational warning tool.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Magnetohydrodynamic simulations preliminarily predict the habitability and radio emission of TRAPPIST-1e

TRAPPIST-1e, an Earth-sized exoplanet in the habitable zone of the nearby M dwarf TRAPPIST-1, may experience magnetospheric responses that vary with stellar space weather, which could potentially influence both its habitability and radio emissions. Our objective is to investigate how different Earth-like magnetospheric configurations of TRAPPIST-1e – specifically variations in dipolar magnetic field strength and axial tilt – respond to diverse stellar space weather conditions, including events analogous to coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and to assess their implications for potential habitability and expected radio emissions. We conducted 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations of the TRAPPIST-1e system using the PLUTO code in spherical coordinates. The planetary magnetic field was modelled as dipolar, with equatorial strengths from Earth-like to several times stronger. The dipole axis spans a representative range of axial tilts. We investigate four stellar wind environments, from sub-Alfvénic flow to CME-like disturbances. Planetary shielding was quantified based on the magnetopause standoff distance, and radio powers were estimated via empirical scaling laws. Our simulations show that both shielding and radio power depend strongly on the magnetic configuration. Stronger fields increase protection, while larger tilts reduce it. Radio power increases with both field strength and tilt across all wind regimes. An Earth-like magnetic field can provide effective shielding even under intense CMEs, whereas high tilts require stronger fields. Predicted radio powers reach ~10 20 erg s −1 during CMEs, making bursts from close-in, magnetised planets more detectable. However, for TRAPPIST-1e, the maximum cyclotron frequency lies below the Earth’s ionospheric cutoff (~10 MHz), making ground-based detection currently infeasible.

Sun: magnetic fields↗
DOE OSTI2024

Lunar soil record of atmosphere loss over eons

The Moon has a tenuous atmosphere produced by space weathering. The short-lived nature of the atoms surrounding the Moon necessitates continuous replenishment from lunar regolith through mechanisms such as micrometeorite impacts, ion sputtering, and photon-stimulated desorption. Despite advances, previous remote sensing and space mission data have not conclusively disentangled the contributions of these processes. Using high-precision potassium (K) and rubidium (Rb) isotopic analyses of lunar soils from the Apollo missions, our study sheds light on the lunar surface-atmosphere evolution over billions of years. The observed correlation between K and Rb isotopic ratios (δ 87 Rb = 0.17 δ 41 K) indicates that, over long timescales, micrometeorite impact vaporization is the primary source of atoms in the lunar atmosphere.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ohm’s Law, the Reconnection Rate, and Energy Conversion in Collisionless Magnetic Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection is a ubiquitous plasma process that transforms magnetic energy into particle energy during eruptive events throughout the universe. Reconnection not only converts energy during solar flares and geomagnetic substorms that drive space weather near Earth, but it may also play critical roles in the high energy emissions from the magnetospheres of neutron stars and black holes. In this review article, we focus on collisionless plasmas that are most relevant to reconnection in many space and astrophysical plasmas. Guided by first-principles kinetic simulations and spaceborne in-situ observations, we highlight the most recent progress in understanding this fundamental plasma process. We start by discussing the non-ideal electric field in the generalized Ohm’s law that breaks the frozen-in flux condition in ideal magnetohydrodynamics and allows magnetic reconnection to occur. We point out that this same reconnection electric field also plays an important role in sustaining the current and pressure in the current sheet and then discuss the determination of its magnitude (i.e., the reconnection rate), based on force balance and energy conservation. This approach to determining the reconnection rate is applied to kinetic current sheets with a wide variety of magnetic geometries, parameters, and background conditions. We also briefly review the key diagnostics and modeling of energy conversion around the reconnection diffusion region, seeking insights from recently developed theories. Finally, future prospects and open questions are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Magnetic Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental plasma physics process ubiquitous in astrophysics, and important in both magnetic confinement fusion and space weather. The MARZ fundamental science program was recently established on Z to enable the first laboratory astrophysics platform able to access and study the strongly radiatively cooled magnetic reconnection regime. Simulations of this system have successfully used a resistive-MHD approach, but in some regions of parameter space Hall physics has the potential to be important. We describe implementation of a Hall method on a staggered grid resistive-MHD method (compatible with the approach used to model MARZ experiments. We then present a different Hall method based on cell-centered field quantities. Both approaches have been implemented in the Sandia KRAKEN code, to enable us to contrast different numerical Hall-MHD methods within the same HED code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Revealing the Moon's Taurus‐Littrow Landslide via Integrated Analysis of Pristine Apollo 17 Soil Core 73001/2

The “light mantle” deposit at the base of South Massif in the Moon's Taurus‐Littrow Valley was a primary science target for the Apollo 17 exploration. The possibility that it was a landslide triggered by ejecta from Tycho Crater is critical for establishing the age of Tycho and constraining recent lunar impact chronology; however, the mechanism of emplacement of the deposit has recently been questioned. The newly opened 73001/73002 double drive tube from Station 3 sampled 70.6 cm deep into the regolith and represents the first stratigraphic section of an extraterrestrial landslide deposit returned to Earth. Here we provide an overview of the stratigraphy of the 73001/73002 core based on top to bottom variations revealed by coordinated laboratory analyses and explore constraints on the emplacement of the light mantle deposit. Briefly, the upper ∼10 cm of 73002 contains a disturbed zone from space weathering and emplacement of ejecta from a nearby crater that excavated and ejected basaltic material. Below 10 cm is a nearly uniform unit of immature regolith. These data support a single event for the emplacement of the deposit at this location, followed by weathering and mixing of materials from nearby crater ejecta in the upper 10 cm. Slight variations in chemistry and clast components may reflect the relative stratigraphy of the South Massif slope, with material toward the bottom of 73001 originating from lower slopes and material from higher up in the core representing regolith from higher up the South Massif slopes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ionospheric Disturbances in GNSS TEC Data: SpaceX Falcon 9 Deorbit Maneuvers Over CONUS in April–May 2024

Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) driven by a large number of internal and external sources are detectable with dense networks of ground‐based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers' measurements of total electron content (TEC). We present the newly developed System for Rapid Analysis of Ionospheric Dynamics (S‐RAID), providing data and visual GNSS TEC products of TIDs of periods ~2–120 min and horizontal resolution up to tens of kilometers for years 2017–2024. The S‐RAID data reveal myriad natural and anthropogenic TIDs from meteorology and space weather, and from human spaceflight activities. In this report, we focus on new prominent disturbances found during SpaceX second stage deorbit maneuvers in April–May 2024. Signatures include waves emanating from the Falcon's trajectory above California and depletions following its deorbit and passage over Arizona. These findings suggest further opportunities to detect and quantify small‐scale events in the ionosphere as well as to understand the responses of the atmosphere‐ionosphere system to known inputs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Probabilistic Model for Global EMIC Wave Activity Using Van Allen Probes Observations

Electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves play a key role in radiation belt dynamics through resonant interactions. However, their low occurrence probability, high variability, and spatial intermittency pose challenges for accurate modeling. In this study, we present a machine learning (ML)-based global EMIC wave model built on the entire data set from the Van Allen Probes mission. To capture the distinct statistical characteristics of wave occurrence and amplitude, the model is separated into two modules: an occurrence model trained using ML techniques, and a wave amplitude model sampled from observed probability distributions. The input parameters are limited to real-time or predictable variables to ensure practical applicability. Our model shows strong performance across the entire test set and demonstrates improved predictive capability over a baseline random occurrence model, particularly during quiet geomagnetic conditions. Evaluation during both quiet and active periods confirms the model's ability to represent the clustered and intermittent nature of EMIC wave activity. Furthermore, the model provides global estimates of wave power, enabling integration with radiation belt electron data and showing signatures consistent with wave-induced scattering. We found a good correlation between the global wave activity from the model and relativistic electron observation by Van Allen Probes, regardless of the availability of in situ wave observations. The modular structure of the model also allows for straightforward expansion for additional wave properties, such as wave frequency, which can be modeled independently. This flexible, event-sensitive approach offers a promising framework for data-driven radiation belt simulations and space weather applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Whistler Chorus Amplification in the Magnetosphere: The Nonlinear Free‐Electron Laser Model and the Ginzburg‐Landau Equation

We present a novel nonlinear model for whistler-mode chorus amplification based on the free-electron laser (FEL) mechanism. First, we derive the nonlinear collective variable equations for the whistler-electron interaction. Consistent with in situ satellite observations, these equations predict that a small seed wave can undergo exponential growth, reaching a peak of a few hundred picoteslas after a few milliseconds, followed by millisecond timescale amplitude modulations. Next, we show that when one accounts for multiple wave frequencies and wave spatial variations, the amplitude and phase of the whistler wave can be described by the Ginzburg-Landau equation (GLE), providing a framework for the investigation of solitary wave behavior of chorus modes. These findings enhance our understanding of wave-particle interactions and space weather in the Van Allen radiation belts, deepen the connection between whistler-electron dynamics and FELs, and reveal a novel connection between whistler-mode chorus and the GLE.

Ginsburg-Landau equation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thank You to Our Peer Reviewers in 2025

Peer reviewing is the foundation of modern scholarship, with external specialists being asked to fairly check and evaluate submitted work. This difficult and often time‐consuming activity is performed voluntarily, with the understanding that one's own scholarship shall benefit down the line from a careful analysis of its assumption, results, accuracy, and yes, language, as we are now evaluating someone else's work. At Space Weather, we pride ourselves on a fair but quick review process yielding high‐quality articles with a time from submission to first decision of less than 2 months. This would not be possible without the hard work of all our reviewers. Once a year, we take the occasion to name these reviewers to thank them for their service to the journal and the community.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Pierre Auger Observatory open data

The Pierre Auger Collaboration has embraced the concept of open access to their research data since its foundation, with the aim of giving access to the widest possible community. A gradual process of release began as early as 2007 when 1% of the cosmic-ray data was made public, along with 100% of the space-weather information. In February 2021, a portal was released containing 10% of cosmic-ray data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory from 2004 to 2018, during the first phase of operation of the Observatory. The Open Data Portal includes detailed documentation about the detection and reconstruction procedures, analysis codes that can be easily used and modified and, additionally, visualization tools. Since then, the Portal has been updated and extended. In 2023, a catalog of the highest-energy cosmic-ray events examined in depth has been included. A specific section dedicated to educational use has been developed with the expectation that these data will be explored by a wide and diverse community, including professional and citizen scientists, and used for educational and outreach initiatives. This paper describes the context, the spirit, and the technical implementation of the release of data by the largest cosmic-ray detector ever built and anticipates its future developments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗