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At least 19 records

NASA analysis of space mission options for the 2025 planetary defense conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat scenario

The 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise is being conducted in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), exercising SMPAG's processes for assessing space mission options and communicating to decision makers. Here, in this paper, we describe the work performed by our NASA-led team and present the results we contributed to the SMPAG effort for the exercise. Our NASA-led team assessed mission options for asteroid reconnaissance (flyby and rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption using several viable techniques: kinetic impactors, ion beam deflection, and nuclear explosive devices. Our simulations and analyses considered how much change-in-velocity an asteroid can tolerate before fragmentation onset, and we worked towards establishing requirements for robustly disrupting an asteroid. Heuristics informed by the simulation results are incorporated into optimization of deflection and disruption mission campaign options. Finally, we make some observations about useful generalizations from these results with potential applicability to any planetary defense scenario.

Asteroid deflection

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid deflection

Radiation‐Resistant Aluminum Alloy for Space Missions in the Extreme Environment of the Solar System

Future human exploration of the solar system demands advanced materials capable of withstanding extreme environments, particularly exposure to solar energetic particle radiation. Current material selection criteria for space applications prioritize a high strength-to-weight ratio, high corrosion resistance and manufacturability, favoring age-hardenable Al-based alloys. However, conventional precipitation-hardened Al alloys suffer from irradiation-assisted dissolution of strengthening phases at doses as low as 0.2 displacements-per-atom (dpa), undermining their performance. Furthermore, these alloys develop radiation-induced defects, such as dislocation loops and voids, even at low doses. This study presents a novel ultrafine-grained (UFG) Al-based alloy, designed using the crossover alloying concept and strengthened by T-phase precipitates, featuring a chemically-complex structure with 162 atoms in its unit cell composed of Mg 32 (Zn,Al) 49 . It is showed that T-phase precipitates have exceptional radiation tolerance up to 24 dpa. Owing to the nanoscale UFG structure, dislocation loops are suppressed, and voids are only observed beyond 75 dpa. Microtensile tests up to 20 dpa confirm the preservation of mechanical performance under irradiation. The results underline the potential of this alloy as a radiation-resistant, lightweight material for future space applications. Three key strategies enable this performance: (i) stabilization of a UFG microstructure, (ii) T-phase precipitation featuring a highly negative Gibbs free energy and chemically-complex giant unit cell, and (iii) precise process control to prevent grain growth during heat treatment and irradiation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Space radiation measurements during the Artemis I lunar mission

Space radiation is a notable hazard for long-duration human spaceflight. Associated risks include cancer, cataracts, degenerative diseases and tissue reactions from large, acute exposures. Space radiation originates from diverse sources, including galactic cosmic rays, trapped-particle (Van Allen) belts5 and solar-particle events. Previous radiation data are from the International Space Station and the Space Shuttle in low-Earth orbit protected by heavy shielding and Earth’s magnetic field and lightly shielded interplanetary robotic probes such as Mars Science Laboratory and Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Limited data from the Apollo missions and ground measurements with substantial caveats are also available. Here we report radiation measurements from the heavily shielded Orion spacecraft on the uncrewed Artemis I lunar mission. At differing shielding locations inside the vehicle, a fourfold difference in dose rates was observed during proton-belt passes that are similar to large, reference solar-particle events. Interplanetary cosmic-ray dose equivalent rates in Orion were as much as 60% lower than previous observations. Furthermore, a change in orientation of the spacecraft during the proton-belt transit resulted in a reduction of radiation dose rates of around 50%. These measurements validate the Orion for future crewed exploration and inform future human spaceflight mission design.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Radiation-induced alteration of apatite on the surface of Mars: first in situ observations with SuperCam Raman onboard Perseverance

Abstract Planetary exploration relies considerably on mineral characterization to advance our understanding of the solar system, the planets and their evolution. Thus, we must understand past and present processes that can alter materials exposed on the surface, affecting space mission data. Here, we analyze the first dataset monitoring the evolution of a known mineral target in situ on the Martian surface, brought there as a SuperCam calibration target onboard the Perseverance rover. We used Raman spectroscopy to monitor the crystalline state of a synthetic apatite sample over the first 950 Martian days (sols) of the Mars2020 mission. We note significant variations in the Raman spectra acquired on this target, specifically a decrease in the relative contribution of the Raman signal to the total signal. These observations are consistent with the results of a UV-irradiation test performed in the laboratory under conditions mimicking ambient Martian conditions. We conclude that the observed evolution reflects an alteration of the material, specifically the creation of electronic defects, due to its exposure to the Martian environment and, in particular, UV irradiation. This ongoing process of alteration of the Martian surface needs to be taken into account for mineralogical space mission data analysis.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Non-DNA radiosensitive targets that initiate persistent behavioral deficits in rats exposed to space radiation

Predicting future CNS risks for astronauts during deep-space missions will rely substantially on ground-based rodent data with space-relevant ions and behaviors. For rats, the accumulated evidence indicates that less densely ionizing radiation, such as 4 He and 12 C ions, induce behavior deficits at lower doses than densely ionizing ions, such as 48 Ti and 56 Fe. However, this observation conflicts with standard somatic radiobiology, in which densely ionizing ions are generally more effective than less densely ionizing ions, and where the DNA/nucleus is the accepted target for radiation-induced tumorigenesis, cytogenetic aberrations, genetic mutations, and reproductive cell death. To gain deeper insight into the subcellular nature of the radiation targets for behavior risks, we compared the effects of dose, fluence, and linear energy transfer (LET) of 4 He and 56 Fe particles using existing datasets for four distinct behavioral outcomes in rats: elevated plus maze (EPM-anxiety), novel object recognition (NOR-memory), operant responding (OR-response to environmental stimuli), and attentional set-shifting (ATSET-cognitive flexibility). We confirmed that less densely ionizing particles (except protons) showed ~100-fold lower threshold doses than densely ionizing particles for behavioral deficits (0.1–1 cGy for 4 He vs. 15–100 cGy for 56 Fe). However, when analyzed by fluence the behavioral responses converged, indicating that 4 He and 56 Fe were equally effective on a per-track basis. When analyzed by LET, there were ~100-fold differences in the LET for maximum effectiveness for behavioral deficits and DNA endpoints (~1 vs ~100 keV/μm, respectively). These unique features of radiation-induced behavioral deficits (high sensitivity to particles in the 1-keV/μm range, insensitivity to protons in the 0.2 keV/μm range, and isofluence dependence for particles with LET>1 keV/μm) provide evidence in support of a new hypothesis of sub-micron sized radiosensitive targets for behavioral effects consistent with the thickness of plasma membranes and/or small subcellular structures, smaller than a whole synapse. Like our behavior findings, mouse immature oocyte killing which is known to have a plasma membrane target was also better explained by fluence, rather than dose. In contrast, fluence analyses for DNA/nuclear endpoints in somatic cells (e.g., tumor induction, chromosome aberrations) showed opposite results, suggesting that behavior targets are not DNA. Our findings raise questions regarding the identity of subcellular targets and the multi-cellular functional unit for behavior risks, low-dose susceptibility, and generalizability from rat to other species and astronauts.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN

Predicting Cislunar Orbit Lifetimes from Initial Orbital Elements

The volume of space between Earth’s geosynchronous orbit out to the Moon’s sphere of influence, including the lunar Lagrange points, is crucial for the successful planning and execution of space missions, but not fully understood dynamically. This region is a part of cislunar space. Trajectories through cislunar space are influenced by the gravitational forces of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and other Solar System planets leading to typically unpredictable and chaotic trajectory behavior. It is therefore difficult to predict the stability of an trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial conditions or orbital elements. We simulate one million cislunar orbits to train a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the trajectories and orbits into families based on how long they remain stable within the cislunar space. Using the trained SOM, we are able to predict the stable lifetime of a trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial orbital elements to within an accuracy of 10% for 8% of simulated trajectories and within 50% for 43% of the simulated trajectories. Clustering in the SOM suggests that a variety of trajectory morphologies have similar lifetimes. Once trained, the SOM can predict the stable lifetime of a given cislunar trajectory within milliseconds. The methods developed in this work enable the rapid identification of stable cislunar orbits and trajectories that could be used for future space exploration. Moreover, the developed SOM method can generate orbital and trajectory lifetime estimates from minimal observational data, such as a single two line element, making it useful for early warning systems and large-scale sensor network operations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Editorial: Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age

Editorial on the Research Topic Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age The near-Earth space environment is not only an operational hazard for space missions, but also a scientific laboratory for advancing our understanding and prediction of space plasma populations. This Research Topic is organized around three interconnected themes: observational datasets, machine-learning (ML) model development, and the discovery of new physical insights through those models. Its primary goal is to highlight the emerging capabilities in space environment prediction that are enabled, or will be enabled, by integrating advanced techniques—including AI/ML methods—with long-term curated datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Towards satellite tests combining general relativity and quantum mechanics through quantum optical interferometry: progress on the deep space quantum link

The Deep Space Quantum Link (DSQL) is a space-mission concept that aims to explore the interplay between general relativity and quantum mechanics using quantum optical interferometry. This mission concept was formally presented to the United States National Academy of Science Decadal Survey as a research campaign for Fundamental Physics in 2022. Since then, advances have been made in the space-based quantum optical technologies required to conduct a DSQL-type mission. In addition, other research efforts have defined alternative measurement concepts to explore the same scientific questions motivating the DSQL mission. This paper serves as an update to the community on the status of the DSQL mission concept and related research and technology development efforts.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC

Proton radiation resilience of CdSeTe photovoltaics: High predicted end-of-life performance for space applications

Two types of cadmium selenide telluride (CdSeTe) photovoltaic devices have been exposed to high-energy (150–1500 keV) protons with fluences ranging from 1 × 10 11 to 9 × 10 13 cm −2 . Pre- and post-irradiation current density vs voltage characteristic data were collected and analyzed. Arsenic-doped CdSeTe devices retained 80% of the power conversion efficiency (PCE) relative to control devices after exposure to 10 12 cm −2 650 keV protons, while copper-doped CdSeTe devices retained about 95% of the control PCE under the same irradiation condition. Displacement damage dose analysis coupled with simulations for duration-dependent performance in a medium Earth orbit space mission revealed superior PCE remaining factors, indicating greater resilience to proton bombardment than state-of-the-art multijunction III-V based space photovoltaic technologies.

CdTe solar cells

Frictionless knowledge injection for few-shot learning

Cutting-edge machine learning methods often require large volumes of curated training data, precluding their use in national security problems with rare events in massive datasets. We present a method for incorporating abstract knowledge into models tailored for sparse data. A subject matter expert defines salient concepts using data examples, which are encoded in the model’s embedding space. Models are then trained to respect these concepts. This method enables knowledge injection, yielding effective models with limited labeled data and the ability to assess model sensitivity for subject matter expertise across the nonproliferation mission space, as demonstrated with Raman spectra analysis.

Stomps, Jordan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178114479)

LDRD FY25 Program Overview

As Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL’s) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program enters its fifth decade of leading-edge research and development, its impact and importance have never been stronger. The program continues to advance strategic investments in pioneering science, technology, and engineering, ensuring LLNL will be ready to deliver on our mission as it evolves over the coming decades. Investing in LDRD research, and the people who perform this critical work, gives LLNL the ability to sustain our role as a leader in the Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration enterprise. The LDRD program enables high-risk, high-payoff research that anticipates emerging threats and future mission needs. By nurturing the ingenuity of the Lab’s greatest asset, its people, LDRD funding advances not only our research but also grows and nurtures our workforce: engaging future innovators with student mentoring, challenging postdoctoral researchers to apply their skills to support national security, and strengthening the leadership skills of early career staff. This annual report documents how LDRD investments advance LLNL’s science, technology, and engineering across our mission space. To assess LDRD’s impact we track both short and long-term metrics such as peer-reviewed publications, number of students, or professional fellows. In addition to reviewing these metrics, I encourage you to delve deeper into the breadth of science and technology that illustrate the strategic value of this research portfolio. For instance, a recent exploratory research project used advanced manufacturing to construct miniaturized three-dimensional ion traps for a quantum computer with reduced quantum error rates to enable applications that address national security missions and support basic science. Another project has delved into studying detonation by examining deflagration to enhance the safety and security of the nuclear weapons stockpile. LDRD researchers are also deploying AI agents on two of the world’s most powerful supercomputers to automate and accelerate inertial confinement fusion experiments. Other teams are delivering more accurate optical constants to enable improved validation for aluminum to advance atomic and molecular physics models. LDRD-driven discoveries of how metals deform under extreme conditions strengthen our ability to model and design materials for demanding national security environments. National security challenges are increasingly complex and continuously evolving. LDRD focuses our most innovative science and technology on these challenges, ensuring the Laboratory is developing creative, forward-leaning solutions for our nation and the world. The following pages feature highlights of published scientific advances, patents, and honors that stem from LDRD investments. As you read this report, I hope you will understand how these investments position the Laboratory, and our partners, to meet the demands of the decades ahead.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Comparison of the Distribution of the In Situ Ring Current Density Based on Magnetic Field Observations From THEMIS, MMS and Cluster

Abstract We review and extend previous work on the ring current density distribution by applying the curlometer technique to multi‐spacecraft magnetic field data on different spatial scales, directly comparing the results of three space missions: Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS), The Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) and Cluster, that have so far accrued decades of data on a range of spatial separation scales. We suggest that the statistical results of Cluster data over two decades can illustrate well the overall form of the ring current (in the ring plane), but can underestimate the current density, while THEMIS (partially) and MMS are able to observe the detailed structure of the ring current and indeed show different behavior on some (smaller) spatial scales. These results suggest that, in addition to the local time and radial form, reported previously, the morphology of the ring current may also depend on magnetic latitude, as influenced by the tilt angle between the inner and outer magnetic fields.

Tan, X. [School of Space and Earth Sciences Beihan

Predicting cutoff L-shells of solar protons using the GPPSn particle dataset

Solar energetic protons (SEPs) arriving at the Earth trigger severe radiation storms in the near-Earth space, directly impacting space missions operating at various altitudes. Therefore, monitoring SEP events and predicting the penetration depths of solar protons are critical for aerospace sectors. Building on previous efforts, here we demonstrate the feasibility of using proton measurements from the Global Prompt Proton Sensor network (GPPSn), enabled by Los Alamos National Laboratory developed combined X-ray dosimeters aboard GPS satellites, to characterize and predict the penetration of solar protons into the geomagnetic field. The inclined medium-Earth-orbits (MEOs) of the global GPS constellation offer a unique advantage of allowing simultaneous measurements of penetrating solar protons inside both open- and closed-field line regions. Therefore, the L-profiles of ∼10s–100 MeV solar protons and their associated cutoff L-shells can be determined from the GPPSn dataset, using predefined threshold proton flux values rather than traditional flux ratios. After examining a list of SEP event intervals across solar cycles 23, 24 and 25—including the 2024 Mother’s Day superstorm, we showcase how the latest GPPSn proton dataset (release v1.10), reprocessed and calibrated, can not only be used to monitor solar proton distributions inside the dynamic geomagnetic field for individual events, but also to derive a new empirical model linking cutoff L-shells with several key space weather parameters. This newly developed SEPCL-MEO model demonstrates high predictive performance; for example, predictions for > 30 MeV solar protons yield a correlation coefficient of 0.85 and performance efficiency of 0.67 when validated against GPPSn observations. Results from this pilot study underscores the scientific and operational value of the GPPSn dataset, and this dataset—when paired with machine-learning techniques—can play a critical role in observing and predicting the effects of future incoming SEP events, including extreme ones.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Optimizing infrasound observations for sample return capsule re-entry: Insights from OSIRIS-REx and Hayabusa2

The atmospheric entry of meteoroids presents a rare and unpredictable phenomenon, posing challenges for systematic observation and detailed characterization. Such events are nonetheless critical for advancing understanding of acoustic wave propagation, atmospheric structure, and entry dynamics. In contrast, sample return capsules (SRCs) from space missions follow well constrained re-entry trajectories, enabling planned observations of shock wave generation and propagation under controlled conditions. This study compares two SRC atmospheric entries, Hayabusa2 in 2020 and OSIRIS-REx in 2023, to assess how different infrasound array configurations influence shock wave detection and trajectory validation. Hayabusa2’s re-entry was monitored using a distributed network of 28 portable infrasound sensors across seven arrays in Woomera, Australia, permitting three-dimensional reconstruction of the trajectory and analysis of wave characteristics. For OSIRIS-REx, a compact four-sensor array deployed near Eureka Airport provided trajectory confirmation through arrival-time differences and back-azimuth estimates. Spectral and waveform analyses revealed differences in signal properties associated with variations in entry angle and velocity. The results illustrate both the strengths and the limitations of the deployed array configurations. The dense and distributed arrays during Hayabusa2’s re-entry enabled detailed trajectory reconstruction, whereas the compact array at Eureka primarily provided confirmation of signal coherence and back-azimuth consistency. These case studies highlight that even relatively small arrays, if located close to the predicted ground track, can still capture useful information on arrival direction and timing. Such insights provide practical guidance for planning future observational campaigns of SRC returns and other controlled atmospheric entries, and may also inform approaches to opportunistic observations of meteoroid events and other atmospheric acoustic phenomena.

celestial mechanics: orbit determination