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NASA NTRS2021

Southeast Michigan Health & Air Quality: Identifying Trends of Ground-level Ozone Precursors in Southeast Michigan and Northern Ohio

Pollutants resulting from industrial activity can react with sunlight to create ground-level ozone, a harmful pollutant that can exacerbate respiratory health issues such as asthma. Due to a history of heavy industrialization, residents of southeast Michigan and northern Ohio are especially susceptible to ground-level ozone. NASA DEVELOP, in partnership with the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy’s (EGLE) Air Quality Division and the Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium (LADCO), investigated the effectiveness of Earth observations (EO) in monitoring pollutants that contribute to ground-level ozone. The team used the European Space Agency’s TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) aboard Sentinel-5P, and NASA’s Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aboard Aura, to measure nitrogen dioxide (NO2), formaldehyde (HCHO), and methane (CH4) from 2019 to 2021 (May-September). The team oversampled the EO data on monthly, yearly, and 3-year time scales where possible to enhance more localized pollutant trends. Specifically, TROPOMI effectively monitored NO2 from space, indicating sub-city distributions on a monthly timescale. Contrastingly, the measurements of HCHO were predominately noisy, and therefore failed to show any distribution trends. Lastly, CH4 trends were identifiable yet coarse, hinting that EO monitoring in the case of CH4 is not beneficial for our partners. The end products provide the partners with insight on the utility of EO in measuring certain ozone precursors and can be used to guide ground-level ozone reduction strategies throughout the region.

Mariam Moeen↗
NASA NTRS2023

Southeast U.S. Agriculture: Evaluating the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Flash Droughts within Agricultural Areas and Regional Crop Calendars in the Southeast using Earth Observations

A flash drought refers to the rapid onset or intensification of drought-like conditions. Within the Southeastern United States, flash droughts are made worse by the presence of consumptive vegetation and poor water-holding soils. According to the United States Drought Monitor, a 2016 flash drought occurred with roughly 92% of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee experiencing “severe drought” or worse in the fall of that year. The event resulted in widespread wildfires, reservoir shortages that led to interstate disputes over water rights, significant deterioration of pasture and rangeland, and crop sale losses. The occurrence of a flash drought similar to that listed above can cost the Southeast hundreds of millions of dollars, with effects lasting for several years. For this reason, the development of flash drought monitoring, forecasting, and communication tools is needed to alert both states and their practitioners of possible flash drought events, offsetting the potential loss caused by a flash drought event. This research employed NASA's Short-Term Prediction and Transition Center-Land Information System, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager and other datasets to determine climatological trends during peak growing season from 2000-2022. These products can help partners at the Alabama Office of the State Climatologist, National Integrated Drought Information System, and National Coordinated Soil Moisture Monitoring Network better manage agricultural lands inside drought-prone zones and monitor crop sensitivity during different growing seasons.

Kindrea Gibbons↗
NASA NTRS2021

Are Land-Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?

Southeast Asia is a region known for active land-use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process-based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book-keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil-palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision.

land-use change↗
NASA NTRS2013

From BASE-ASIA Toward 7-SEAS: A Satellite-Surface Perspective of Boreal Spring Biomass-Burning Aerosols and Clouds in Southeast Asia

In this paper, we present recent field studies conducted by NASA's SMART-COMMIT (and ACHIEVE, to be operated in 2013) mobile laboratories, jointly with distributed ground-based networks (e.g., AERONET, http://aeronet.gsfc.nasa.gov/ and MPLNET, http://mplnet.gsfc.nasa.gov/) and other contributing instruments over northern Southeast Asia. These three mobile laboratories, collectively called SMARTLabs (cf. http://smartlabs.gsfc.nasa.gov/, Surface-based Mobile Atmospheric Research & Testbed Laboratories) comprise a suite of surface remote sensing and in-situ instruments that are pivotal in providing high spectral and temporal measurements, complementing the collocated spatial observations from various Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites. A satellite-surface perspective and scientific findings, drawn from the BASE-ASIA (2006) field deployment as well as a series of ongoing 7-SEAS (2010-13) field activities over northern Southeast Asia are summarized, concerning (i) regional properties of aerosols from satellite and in situ measurements, (ii) cloud properties from remote sensing and surface observations, (iii) vertical distribution of aerosols and clouds, and (iv) regional aerosol radiative effects and impact assessment. The aerosol burden over Southeast Asia in boreal spring, attributed to biomass burning, exhibits highly consistent spatial and temporal distribution patterns, with major variability arising from changes in the magnitude of the aerosol loading mediated by processes ranging from large-scale climate factors to diurnal meteorological events. Downwind from the source regions, the tightly coupled-aerosolecloud system provides a unique, natural laboratory for further exploring the micro- and macro-scale relationships of the complex interactions. The climatic significance is presented through large-scale anti-correlations between aerosol and precipitation anomalies, showing spatial and seasonal variability, but their precise cause-and-effect relationships remain an open-ended question. To facilitate an improved understanding of the regional aerosol radiative effects, which continue to be one of the largest uncertainties in climate forcing, a joint international effort is required and anticipated to commence in springtime 2013 in northern Southeast Asia.

biomass burning aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2004

Southeast Ecological Observatory Network (SEEON) Workshop on Ecological Sensors and Information Technology. Report on Second SEEON Workshop

A fundamental goal of the new National Science Foundation (NSF) initiative National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is to provide timely and broad access to the ecological data collected at NEON sites. Information management and data collection will be critical components to achieving this goal and a successful NEON implementation. The Southeast Ecological Observatory Network (SEEON) working group recognized the importance of information management and sensor technology in its first planning workshop and recommended that interested parties in the region come together to discuss these subjects in the context of the needs and capabilities of a southeast regional ecological observatory network. In February 2004, 28 participants from 14 organizations including academic institutions, state and federal agencies, private and non-profit entities convened at the Space Life Sciences Laboratory (SLSL) at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida for two days of presentations and discussions on ecological sensors and information management. Some of the participants were previously involved in the first SEEON workshop or other meetings concerned with NEON, but many were somewhat new to the NEON community. Each day focused on a different technical component, i.e. ecological sensors the first day and cyber-infrastructure the second day, and were structured in a similar manner. The mornings were devoted to presentations by experts to help stimulate discussions on aspects of the focal topic held in the afternoon. The formal and informal discussions held during the workshop succeeded in validating some concerns and needs identified in the first SEEON workshop, but also served to bring to light other questions or issues that will need to be addressed as the NEON planning and design stages move forward. While the expansion of the SEEON community meant that some of the presentation and discussion time was needed to help bring the newcomers up to speed on the goals, objectives and current status of the various NEON efforts, the additional perspectives and technical expertise included in this workshop helped fuel some valuable interdisciplinary discussions that will need to continue to bring SEEON and NEON to fruition. Participants agreed that continued discussions of SEEON are needed , to keep up the momentum and that the southeast region must continue to be represented at the national level. It is vital that the all'the regions continue to push things forward for NEON to succeed.

Jones, Lori N.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Influence of Summertime Convection Over Southeast Asia on Water Vapor in the Tropical Stratosphere

The relative contributions of Southeast Asian convective source regions during boreal summer to water vapor in the tropical stratosphere are examined using Lagrangian trajectories. Convective sources are identified using global observations of infrared brightness temperature at high space and time resolution, and water vapor transport is simulated using advection-condensation. Trajectory simulations are driven by three different reanalysis data sets, GMAO MERRA, ERA-Interim, and NCEP/NCAR, to establish points of consistency and evaluate the sensitivity of the results to differences in the underlying meteorological fields. All ensembles indicate that Southeast Asia is a prominent boreal summer source of tropospheric air to the tropical stratosphere. Three convective source domains are identified within Southeast Asia: the Bay of Bengal and South Asian subcontinent (MON), the South China and Philippine Seas (SCS), and the Tibetan Plateau and South Slope of the Himalayas (TIB). Water vapor transport into the stratosphere from these three domains exhibits systematic differences that are related to differences in the bulk characteristics of transport. We find air emanating from SCS to be driest, from MON slightly moister, and from TIB moistest. Analysis of pathways shows that air detrained from convection over TIB is most likely to bypass the region of minimum absolute saturation mixing ratio over the equatorial western Pacific; however, the impact of this bypass mechanism on mean water vapor in the tropical stratosphere at 68 hPa is small 0.1 ppmv). This result contrasts with previously published hypotheses, and it highlights the challenge of properly quantifying fluxes of atmospheric humidity.

Wright, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Summer-Time Ozone and Precursor Species in the Southeast United States

Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas and toxic pollutant which plays a major role in air quality and atmospheric chemistry. The understanding and ability to model the horizontal and vertical structure of O3 mixing ratios is difficult due to the complex formation/destruction processes and transport pathways that cause large variability of O3. The Environmental Protection Agency has National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3 set at 75 ppb with future standards proposed to be as low as 65 ppb. These lower values emphasize the need to better understand/simulate the transport processes, emission sources, and chemical processes controlling precursor species (e.g., NOx, VOCs, and CO) which influence O3 mixing ratios. The uncertainty of these controlling variables is particularly large in the southeast United States (US) which is a region impacted by multiple different emission sources of precursor species (anthropogenic and biogenic) and transport processes resulting in complex spatio-temporal O3 patterns. During this work we will evaluate O3 and precursor species in the southeast US applying models, ground-based and airborne in situ data, and lidar observations. In the summer of 2013, the UAH O3 Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) (part of the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet)) measured vertical O3 profiles from the surface up to approximately 12 km. During this period, the lidar observed numerous periods of dynamic temporal and vertical O3 structures. In order to determine the sources/processes impacting these O3 mixing ratios we will apply the CTM GEOS-Chem (v9-02) at a 0.25 deg x 0.3125 deg resolution. Using in situ ground-based (e.g., SEARCH Network, CASTNET), airborne (e.g., NOAA WP-3D - SENEX 2013, DC-8 - SEAC4RS), and TOLNet lidar data we will first evaluate the model to determine the capability of GEOS-Chem to simulate the spatio-temporal variability of O3 in the southeast US. Secondly, we will perform model sensitivity studies in order to quantify which emission sources (e.g., anthropogenic, biogenic, lighting, wildfire) and transport processes (e.g., stratospheric, long-range, local scale) are contributing to these TOLNet-observed dynamic O3 patterns. Results from the evaluation of the model and the study of sources/processes impacting observed O3 mixing ratios will be presented.

Optical Radar↗
NASA NTRS2018

Decadal Changes in Summertime Reactive Oxidized Nitrogen and Surface Ozone over the Southeast United States

Widespread efforts to abate ozone (O3) smog have significantly reduced emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over the past 2 decades in the Southeast US, a place heavily influenced by both anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. How reactive nitrogen speciation responds to the reduction in NOx emissions in this region remains to be elucidated. Here we exploit aircraft measurements from ICARTT (International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation - July-August 2004), SENEX (Southeast Nexus - June-July 2013), and SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys - August-September 2013) and long-term ground measurement networks alongside a global chemistry-climate model to examine decadal changes in summertime reactive oxidized nitrogen (RON) and ozone over the Southeast US. We show that our model can reproduce the mean vertical profiles of major RON species and the total (NO (sub y)) in both 2004 and 2013. Among the major RON species, nitric acid (HNO3) is dominant (approximately 42-45 percent), followed by NOx (31 percent), total peroxy nitrates (Sigma PNs; 14 percent), and total alkyl nitrates (Sigma ANs; 9-12 percent) on a regional scale. We find that most RON species, including NOx, Sigma PNs, and HNO3, decline proportionally with decreasing NOx emissions in this region, leading to a similar decline in NO (sub y). This linear response might be in part due to the nearly constant summertime supply of biogenic VOC (Volatile Organic Compounds) emissions in this region. Our model captures the observed relative change in RON and surface ozone from 2004 to 2013. Model sensitivity tests indicate that further reductions of NOx emissions will lead to a continued decline in surface ozone and less frequent high-ozone events.

Li, Jingyi↗
NASA NTRS2016

Why Do Models Overestimate Surface Ozone in the Southeast United States?

Ozone pollution in the Southeast US involves complex chemistry driven by emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxide radicals (NO(x) triple bond NO + NO2) and biogenic isoprene. Model estimates of surface ozone concentrations tend to be biased high in the region and this is of concern for designing effective emission control strategies to meet air quality standards. We use detailed chemical observations from the SEAC(exp 4)RS aircraft campaign in August and September 2013, interpreted with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model at 0.25 deg x 0.3125 deg horizontal resolution, to better understand the factors controlling surface ozone in the Southeast US. We find that the National Emission Inventory (NEI) for NO(x) from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is too high. This finding is based on SEAC(exp 4)RS observations of NO(x) and its oxidation products, surface network observations of nitrate wet deposition fluxes, and OMI satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 columns. Our results indicate that NEI NO(x) emissions from mobile and industrial sources must be reduced by 30-60%, dependent on the assumption of the contribution by soil NO(x) emissions. Upper-tropospheric NO2 from lightning makes a large contribution to satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 that must be accounted for when using these data to estimate surface NO(x) emissions. We find that only half of isoprene oxidation proceeds by the high-NO(x) pathway to produce ozone; this fraction is only moderately sensitive to changes in NO(x) emissions because isoprene and NO(x) emissions are spatially segregated. GEOS-Chem with reduced NO(x) emissions provides an unbiased simulation of ozone observations from the aircraft and reproduces the observed ozone production efficiency in the boundary layer as derived from a regression of ozone and NO(x) oxidation products. However, the model is still biased high by 6 plus or minus 14 ppb relative to observed surface ozone in the Southeast US. Ozonesondes launched during midday hours show a 7 ppb ozone decrease from 1.5 km to the surface that GEOS-Chem does not capture. This bias may reflect a combination of excessive vertical mixing and net ozone production in the model boundary layer.

Oxidation↗
NASA NTRS2020

Radiative Heating Rate Profiles over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean during the 2016 and 2017 Biomass Burning Seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. Further uncertainties in the cloud structure arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean where biomass burning aerosol is transported from the African continent. As the aerosol plume progresses across the southeast Atlantic Ocean, radiative heating within the aerosol layer has the potential to alter the thermodynamic environment and therefore the cloud structure; however, limited work has been done to quantify this along the trajectory of the aerosol plume in the region. The deployment of the First Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility in support of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds field campaign provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96 °S, 14.35 °W). Using observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from the field campaign, alongside aerosol optical properties from MERRA-2 as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model, profiles of the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds were computed. Radiative heating is also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model. Idealized experiments using the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model with and without aerosols and a range of values for the single scattering albedo demonstrate that shortwave heating within the aerosol layer above Ascension Island can locally range between 2 and 8 K per day depending on the aerosol optical properties, though impacts of the aerosol can be felt elsewhere in the atmospheric column. When considered under clear conditions, the aerosol has a cooling effect at the TOA and based on the observed cloud properties at Ascension Island, the cloud albedo is not large enough to overcome this. Shortwave radiative heating due to biomass burning aerosol is not balanced by additional longwave cooling, and the net radiative impact results in a stabilization of the lower troposphere. However, these results are extremely sensitive to the single scattering albedo assumptions in models.

Allison B. Marquardt Collow↗
NASA NTRS2021

On the Development and Demise of the Fall 2019 Southeast U. S. Flash Drought: Links to an Extreme Positive IOD

Much of the southeast United States experienced record dry conditions during September of 2019, with the area in abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions growing from 25% at the beginning of the month to 80% by the end of the month. The drought ended just as abruptlydue to above normal rain that fell during the second half of October. In this study we employed MERRA-2 and the GEOS-5 AGCM to diagnose the underlying causes of the drought’s onset, maintenance, and demise. The basic approach involves performing a series of AGCM simulations in which the model is constrained to remain close to MERRA-2 over pre-specified areas that are external to the drought region. The start of the drought appears to have been forced by anomalous heating in the central/western tropical Pacific that resulted in low level anti-cyclonic flow and a tendency for descending motion over much of the southeast. An anomalous ridge associated with a Rossby wave train (emanating from the Indian Ocean region) is found to be the main source of the most intense temperature and precipitation anomalies that develop over the southeast during the last week of September. A second Rossby wave train (emanating from the same region) is responsible for the substantial rain that fell during the second half of October to end the drought. The links to the Indian Ocean Dipole (with record positive values) as well a sa waning El Nino allow some speculation as to the likelihood of similar events occurring in the future.

Siegfried D Schubert↗
NASA NTRS2020

Stress Promotion of the 1958 Mw∼7.8 Fairweather Fault Earthquake and Others in Southeast Alaska by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Inter-earthquake Stress Transfer

We assess how recent glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and inter-earthquake stress transfer modulated the state of stress on major faults in Southeast Alaska, and how these effects may have influenced recent large and moderate earthquakes. The Glacier Bay Icefield has lost >3,000 km3 of ice since ca. 1770, with ice thinning up to 1.5 km, and the rest of southeast Alaska has been deglaciating since ca. 1900. The resulting GIA response in the solid earth produces present-day surface uplift rates of up to ∼4 cm/yr, among the fastest on Earth. This rapid deformation occurs directly alongside and atop the Fairweather Fault, which accommodates 4–5 cm/yr of right-lateral motion through slip in frequent large earthquakes, recently including a Mw∼7.8 earthquake in 1958. We find that the 1958 earthquake nucleated very close to the location of maximum GIA-induced Coulomb stress increase on the Fairweather Fault between 1770 and 1958 (estimated at ∼0.2–0.6 MPa), on the only section of fault where GIA-induced stress changes had involved both right-lateral shearing and unclamping. The September 10, 1899 Mw∼8.1 Yakutat Bay earthquake also promoted failure on at least the northwest part of the eventual 1958 rupture. In turn, the 1899 and 1958 earthquakes and GIA promoted failure along the St. Elias compressional margin, the site of a Mw∼7.4 event in 1979. While rapid tectonic loading is very likely the main driver of earthquakes in southeast Alaska, we estimate that 23 of 30 instrumentally constrained Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in this region were also promoted by post-1770 GIA.

Chris Rollins↗
NASA NTRS2021

Analysis of Aerosol Type and Fine- and Coarse-mode Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing over Regions in East and Southeast Asia Based on AERONET Version 3 Data

Based on the particle linear depolarization ratio (PLDR) and single-scattering albedo (SSA) values obtained for 1020 nm from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 Level 2.0 data collected in five regions, namely, northern China, Northwest Asia, the Tibetan Plateau, southern China and Southeast Asia, we classified seven types of aerosol (viz., purely dust, dust-dominated, pollution-dominated, non-absorbing [NA], weakly absorbing [WA], moderately absorbing [MA] and strongly absorbing [SA]) in order to assess the spatial and temporal distributions of their constituents and the radiative effects of their fine- and coarse-mode particles. The fine fraction dominated in northern China and also played a crucial role on the Tibetan Plateau and in southern China and Southeast Asia, whereas the coarse fraction prevailed in Northwest Asia. Furthermore, the fine-mode aerosol on the Tibetan Plateau exhibited its maximum radiative forcing efficiency (110.3 W m–2) during high concentrations of SA aerosol. Also, the lowest values for both the radiative forcing and the radiative forcing efficiency in southern China occurred during summer. Finally, the various aerosol constituents displayed distinct spatial and temporal distributions in Southeast Asia, with the SA aerosol contributing approximately 20% of the total aerosol on the Indochinese Peninsula and the NA and WA aerosol forming the largest percentages on the Malay Peninsula.

Particle linear depolarization ratio↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Atmospheric Conditions Responsible for an Ozone Exceedance Event in Southeast Virginia on June 15, 2022

On June 15, 2022, the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality monitoring site at Suffolk/Holland, a rural site in southeast Virginia, recorded its first ozone exceedance since 2016. An ozone exceedance day occurs when the daily maximum 8-hour average surface ozone concentration is greater than 70 ppb. On this day, it was 75 ppb. This event is also noteworthy due to the rapid increase in surface ozone between 6 am and 9 am EDT as well as the hourly maximum ozone concentration of 82 ppb that was measured at 1 pm EDT. In this analysis, we utilize various observational and model data to determine the atmospheric conditions responsible for this ozone exceedance event. The analysis is conducted in two parts: (1) an evaluation of the accuracy of the GEOS-CF and WRF-Chem model forecasts and (2) an investigation of the mechanisms responsible for the high surface ozone at the Virginia DEQ Suffolk/Holland monitoring site. Comparisons of model forecasted ozone time-height cross sections with measured ozone by lidars from the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) at NASA Langley and NASA Goddard reveal that both models forecasted ozone reasonably well near the surface. Model and observational data reveal that an upper-level ridge was present over much of the eastern United States, with a broad anticyclonic circulation near the surface, resulting in north-northeasterly flow over southeast Virginia. Back trajectory calculations using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) and model data suggest that a low-level plume rich in ozone and precursor species originating from the New York City and New Jersey region was transported along the east coast between June 14 and June 15, arriving in southeast Virginia around 6 am EDT on June 15. In the early morning hours, this plume mixed down to the surface, elevating the background ozone mixing ratio as well as the mixing ratios of several precursor species. Other potential contributions are also explored and discussed. Lastly, the authors note that this work represents the analysis of the authors and not the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality.

Daniel B Phoenix↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Variability and Predictability of Precipitation over Southeast Asian

The large scale atmospheric moisture budget, including precipitation, moisture flux convergence, and evaporation is described over southeast Asian. ne results are from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) data assimilation system for the period March 1981 - February 1995. On average, in the late spring and early summer season, precipitation is largely balanced by the atmospheric moisture flux convergence over southeast Asian; evaporation is also an important contributor. The seasonal variability of precipitation is best related to variations in the moisture flux convergence. On the monthly time scales, both the precipitable water and precipitation anomalies are most closely related to moisture flux convergence anomalies and less closely related to evaporation anomalies. The impact of the low-level jet (LLJ) on the strong low-level moisture flux convergence will be discussed. An ensemble of GEOS-2 atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulation are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of initial conditions. We also assess the variability and potential predictability from these experiments.

Chang, Yehui↗