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Timber Harvesting Economics in Early Commercial Thinning and Group Selection Prescriptions

Forest management decisions that consider both short- and long-term objectives are becoming more challenging and costly, due to market uncertainty, labor shortages, and the evolving forest industry. Under such unpredictable circumstances, a better understanding of the production economics of various silvicultural prescriptions is crucial in implementing sound forest management activities. The objectives of this study were to: a) estimate stump to landing productivity and cost for Early Commercial Thinning (ECT) and Group Selection (GS) prescriptions; and b) compare the harvest system cost ($/PMH) using machine rate and PATH (Planning and Analysis in Timber Harvesting) methods. Detailed time-motion studies were conducted in the spruce-fir forest of Northern Maine, USA, during the summer of 2019. The results, as expected, indicated the harvesting costs were 23% higher for ECT (21.08 $/m3) compared to GS (16.32 $/m3). The average productivity of the harvester and forwarder were reduced by 15 and 37%, respectively, for ECT compared to GS. The estimated harvesting system cost ($/PMH) was 4% higher as indicated by PATH compared to machine rate method. Higher operational productivity in GS can be attributed to the larger volume of logs, and shorter travel loaded distance than ECT. These findings can help forest managers make more informed decisions while implementing appropriate silvicultural prescriptions under varying conditions based on management objectives and market conditions.

Forestry↗

Correlations between the Neutron Star Mass–Radius Relation and the Equation of State of Dense Matter

We develop an analytic method of inverting the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff relations to high accuracy. In principle, a specified energy density–pressure relation gives a unique mass–radius (M–R) relation and vice versa. Our method is developed from the strong correlations that are shown to exist between the neutron star mass–radius curve and the equation of state (EOS) or pressure–energy density relation. Selecting points that have masses equal to fixed fractions of the maximum mass, we find a semi-universal power-law relation between the central energy densities, pressures, sound speeds, chemical potentials, and number densities of those stars, with the maximum mass and the radii of one or more fractional maximum mass points. Rms fitting accuracies, for EOSs without large first-order phase transitions, are typically 0.5% for all quantities at all mass points. The method also works well, although less accurately, in reconstructing the EOS of hybrid stars with first-order phase transitions. These results permit, in effect, an analytic method of inverting an arbitrary M–R curve to yield its underlying EOS. We discuss applications of this inversion technique to the inference of the dense matter EOS from measurements of neutron star masses and radii as a possible alternative to traditional Bayesian approaches.

Bayesian statistics↗

Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project: Bainbridge Island, Washington: Cohort 2 Technical Assistance: Improving Resilience

The City of Bainbridge Island (COBI) applied for and received technical assistance from the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) in part to achieve their goal of 100% renewable electricity generation by 2040, five years ahead of the Washington State goal. Their second goal of increasing energy resilience is discussed in this report. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) completed the technical analysis aspects of the project, supported by the community partner Spark Northwest and the program administrator, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). PNNL worked with the Community Lead and stakeholders to ensure selection of hazards and energy infrastructure of highest priority and integration of existing expertise into the analysis. We have also worked to align analysis with current activities conducted by Puget Sound Energy (PSE), and other efforts within the Bainbridge Island community around resilience. This report, conducted under the ETIPP project in partnership with COBI, aims to build on this existing knowledge base with a specific energy focus, to identify hazards and threats to critical energy infrastructure, summarize the risk, and identify and analyze remaining resilience gaps.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Resource Assessment Study of Long Island Sound Tidal Resource in New York State Waters Based on Numerical Modeling (Abstract)

To refine the understanding of the tidal energy resource in Long Island Sound (LIS), Verdant Power and PNNL will collaborate to conduct a numerical modeling campaign in accordance with a Stage 2 resource assessment according to IEC TC 62600-201. The work will develop a high resolution tidal hydrodynamic model using FVCOM in LIS, validate the model using NOAA C-MIST ADCP data, and conduct a Stage 2 array layout design study at selected hotspots within the project area. The teams will also model tidal energy extraction using the FVCOMTEC module at the hotspot sites, based on specific device technologies provided by Verdant Power. Model results from this study will inform additional resource assessment activities such as in situ water velocity measurements for further model validation and elucidate understanding of other key sites in Long Island Sound for commercial-scale tidal energy deployments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Lessons Learned from Site Selection Efforts for Deep Geological Disposal

This report discusses international experiences from site selection of deep geological repositories (DGR) for radioactive waste disposal. Based on experiences from three countries with recent or ongoing site selections, the report describes different site selection approaches and summarizes lessons learned. The German and Swiss programs are two slightly different examples of one end of the spectrum of potential siting approaches: Starting with the entire country, a technically based downselection is performed to select the repository site. The Canadian program is an example of the other end of the spectrum: Here, the program started with an extensive engagement program with Canadians to collaboratively develop a socially acceptable and technically sound national approach for the long-term management of used nuclear fuel. This was followed by the launch of a collaboratively developed consent-based siting process designed to seek an informed and willing host with suitable sites, considering both technical and community well-being site requirements.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Advanced Reactor Designs Security Analysis, Risk, and Recommendations: Risks, Consequences, and Possible by-Design Mitigation Approaches Associated with Select Advanced Reactors

Next-generation advanced reactors (ARs) incorporate enhanced safety systems, have smaller source terms, and feature compact modular designs, which should lessen their collective risk profiles. However, to fully evaluate risk, security needs to be a part of the equation. Without taking security into consideration, safety systems and components in the new ARs may be vulnerable to sabotage. These base attributes, coupled with enhanced security features specific to AR design through sound engineering and security-by-design (SeBD), should provide developers and operators with lower inherent security risk profiles. Building security early into the AR design may remove or passively secure potential critical targets from an adversary’s reach , thereby increasing overall safety and security. An integrated approach and diverse design team that includes engineering, operations, and security experts are fundamental to building security into the design without sacrificing fundamental operational efficiencies and principles. The objective of this project was to evaluate the security and safety interfaces for five classes of reactors, identify potential security vulnerabilities of structures, systems, and components (SSC), and underscore the need to consider security alongside safety in the design o f these concepts. The five reactor classes evaluated in this project and presented in this report are molten-salt reactors (MSR), high temperature gas reactors (HTGR), sodium-fast reactors (SFR), advanced light-water reactors (ALWR), and microreactors. These designs were selected because they reflect the concepts that are closest to market deployment and have received significant resource investments from the public and private sector. This project assesses the inherent security risks posed by common classes of ARs, provides a methodology and framework to assess security along with safety, and offers an analysis of potential mitigation strategies that could be incorporated. For each AR technology, the SSCs that relate to radionuclide source safety functions are discussed to understand the SSC contribution to safety and relative importance in the protective strategy for the design. The assumptions that went into evaluating each reactor concept originated from generic publicly available nonproprietary information and should not directly be used to qualify an absolute risk profile nor to rank specific AR designs. Instead, the purpose of the analysis is to understand and compare the generic inherent security risks of different AR technologies.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗

Continuum shock mixture models for Ni+Al multilayers: Individual layers and bulk equations of state

Continuum shock mixture models are reviewed and applied to determine the equations of state for five different compositions of Ni x Al y ⁠, as well as bulk Ni+Al reactive multilayers, by combining the fundamental property data for elemental nickel and aluminum. From the literature, we down-select and evaluate two analytical models for the mixture Hugoniot, i.e., the well-known method of kinetic energy averaging (KEA) and a recent model proposed by Jordan and Baer [J. Appl. Phys. 111, 083516 (2012)]. Fundamentally, the former method assumes pressure equilibrium, whereas the latter assumes a common particle velocity and mixture sound speed from compressible two-phase cavitating flows. Additionally, we construct thermodynamically complete equations of state by fitting Einstein oscillator series models for the specific heat at constant volume. Finally, the solid solution approximation is invoked for intermetallic compositions, which are not strictly physical mixtures. Overall, the KEA model provides a better fit to the available Ni x Al y and Ni+Al multilayer shock compression data; however, there are combinations of material properties where the performance of these two models is thought to be reversed. Moreover, the results of this work include the first analytical solution of Jordan–Baer that does not require numerical root finding, as well as proposed modifications to the Einstein oscillator series to incorporate some effects of local pressure–temperature equilibrium and reaction–diffusion. Future work is planned that will use these equations of state in mesoscale simulations to study shock-induced reaction in Ni+Al multilayers, and the intended application is illustrated with a brief 2D hydrocode example.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ThermoPI—an Online Tool to Calculate Heat Transfer Through Foam Insulation

Thermal insulation materials with ultra-low effective thermal conductivity are crucial for a multitude of applications. Over the years, a significant amount of experimental work has been dedicated to creating new insulation materials with low thermal conductivity. Similarly, substantial efforts have been made to enhance the theoretical understanding of thermal transport mechanisms in thermal insulation materials and to push the boundaries of lower thermal conductivity. However, ample room remains for enhancing the thermal resistivity of closed-cell foam insulations. To aid in the development of ultra-low effective thermal conductivity foam insulations, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has introduced a unique online tool, ThermoPI. This tool calculates not only the effective thermal conductivity but also the thermal conductivity components for porous materials, including gases, solids, and radiative, based on the materials’ structural information (e.g., porosity, pore size, gas species, pressure, solid species, pore geometry, and temperature).This tool collected and improved the existing theoretical models for thermal insulation materials’ gas, solid, and radiative thermal conductivity. These improved models have been validated with experimental data. Effective medium theory and sound velocity softening effects are considered for solid thermal conductivity. The built-in solid materials include polystyrene, polyurethane, polyethylene, and silica. Users are allowed to input new solid materials that are not built inside the tool. For gas thermal conductivity, the subcontinuum Knudsen effect is considered. In addition to several built-in gases, users can input new gases. For solid and radiative thermal conductivity calculations, several models are available to select, and the tool can determine the best model to choose based on the materials that users input. Users are also allowed to change selections manually. In addition, the tool can also calculate the effect of interfacial resistance on the overall thermal conductivity of layered materials. This work will elaborate on the tool and discuss how it can guide the development of new insulation products.

Shrestha, Som [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000183993797)↗

The Effects of Material-Filled Voids on Detonation Wave Shape in Rubberized RDX Explosives

The sensitivity of explosives is affected by inhomogeneities within the material. This is evident in the increased shock sensitivity of explosives with slightly lower densities resulting from an increased number of hotspots. The influence of hotspots on explosive initiation has been well studied; however, few studies have been conducted on the effect of intermediate-sized voids (0.1–10 mm) on a propagating detonation wave. Cylindrical voids filled with air have been studied for diameters ranging from 0.3 mm to 0.8 mm for both 1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocane (HMX) and 1,3,5-trinitro-1,3,5-triazinane (RDX)-based rubberized explosives. Continuing the investigation into single cylindrical voids, this study examined the effects of 0.5 mm diameter voids filled with different inert cylindrical metals on the detonation wave shape for an RDX-based rubberized explosive. The metals selected for experiments were 1066 aluminum, brass, copper, and tungsten. The propagation of the detonation wave was captured using a digital streak camera. Experimental results showed that the extent of detonation wave shaping was closely tied to the density differential between the bulk explosive and metal insert. Forty-four different filler materials, including non-metals, were simulated using a hydrodynamic code to further analyze material inclusion effects. The main factors hypothesized to be of interest were bulk sound speed, shock impedance, and filler material density. We found that the local detonation delay could be correlated fairly well to a ratio of bulk sound speed and density. Understanding the influence of material inclusions on detonation performance and wave shape allows for tailoring of detonations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Using Machine Learning to Understand Electric and Hybrid Vehicles Ownership in Burdened and Nonburdened Communities

Transitioning to electric and hybrid vehicles (EHVs) for all communities is a pivotal step toward sustainable transportation and environmental conservation. This paper aims to understand the adoption of EHVs, focusing on burdened communities (BCs) in the United States. The EHV ownership-based analysis combines two datasets—behavioral data from the Puget Sound Regional Travel Survey integrated with BCs (Justice40) data covering transportation insecurity, environmental burden, social vulnerability, health vulnerability, and climate and disaster risk burden. After creating this unique database, descriptive analysis and modeling are used to analyze the data and predict EHV ownership in the future. Specifically, we use a new method that combines particle swarm optimization (PSO) with a stacking model named PSO-Stacking, which incorporates heterogeneous base learners of machine learning and deep learning. PSO applies a customized objective function to select the optimal hyperparameters for heterogeneous learners within the stacking model, effectively addressing challenges such as multicollinearity, data imbalance, nonlinearity, and overfitting. The proposed solution covers more accurate results than standard benchmark models for EHV ownership in BCs and non-BCs. In addition, the results of the PSO-Stacking method are explained using the local interpretable model-agnostic explanations technique. Results show a negative correlation between the BCs indicators, that is, higher transportation insecurity associated with lower EHV ownership. Furthermore, BCs have higher future climate risk scores, diesel particulate matter levels, and PM2.5 in the air than non-BCs because of higher conventional vehicle ownership. These communities are at higher risk and can benefit from electrification, EV infrastructure, and EV policies to address environmental challenges.

Aslam, Zeeshan [ORNL]↗

Cyclic Background Noise Variations on Infrasound Microbarometers From Micrometeorology and Human Activity

Infrasound microbarometers deployed on the Earth's surface capture pressure fluctuations and acoustic signatures, revealing trends in surface wind speed and cycles in ambient sound. Previous studies investigated wind noise trends at quarter day resolution and urban acoustic background variations on hourly to weekly scales. Cyclic variations at sub-hourly resolution over local distances remain unaddressed. We show that topography-driven micrometeorology impacts diurnal background noise levels below 10 Hz. Anthropogenic noise occurs over daily and weekly cycles, with inputs from traffic, ventilation systems, and power lines. These noise patterns vary at stations spaced less than a kilometer apart. We observe these phenomena by using a circular spectrogram to visualize frequency trends over a periodic temporal scale. This study demonstrates that infrasound microbarometer deployments can highlight localized wind patterns and time scales of human activity. The results suggest that future microbarometer deployments may benefit from site noise surveys before selecting final sensor locations.

Malach, Amrit Kaur [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA),↗

Study of $\langle {p}_{\text{T}}\rangle$ and its higher moments, and extraction of the speed of sound in Pb-Pb collisions with ALICE

Ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions produce a state of hot and dense strongly interacting QCD matter called quark-gluon plasma (QGP). On an event-by-event basis, the volume of the QGP in ultracentral collisions is mostly constant, while its total entropy can vary significantly due to quantum fluctuations, leading to variations in the temperature of the system. Exploiting this unique feature of ultracentral collisions allows for the interpretation of the correlation of the mean transverse momentum ($\langle$p T $\rangle$) of produced charged hadrons and the number of charged hadrons as a measure for the speed of sound, c s . This speed is related to the rate at which compression waves travel in the QGP and is determined by fitting the relative increase in $\langle$p T $\rangle$ with respect to the relative change in the average charged-particle density ($\langle$dN ch /dη$\rangle$) measured at mid-rapidity. This study reports the event-average $\langle$p T $\rangle$ of charged particles as well as the variance, skewness, and kurtosis of the event-by-event transverse momentum per charged particle ([p T ]) distribution in ultracentral Pb-Pb collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV per nucleon pair using the ALICE detector. Different centrality estimators based on charged-particle multiplicity or the transverse energy of the event are used to select ultracentral collisions. By ensuring a pseudorapidity gap between the region used to define the centrality and the region used to perform the measurement, the influence of biases and their potential effects on the rise of the mean transverse momentum is tested. The measured c$^{2}_{s}$ is found to strongly depend on the exploited centrality estimator and ranges between 0.1146±0.0028 (stat.)±0.0065 (syst.) and 0.4374±0.0006 (stat.)±0.0184 (syst.) in natural units. The self-normalized variance shows a steep decrease towards ultracentral collisions, while the self-normalized skewness variables show a maximum, followed by a fast decrease. These non-Gaussian features are understood in terms of the vanishing of the impact-parameter fluctuations contributing to the event-to-event [p T ] distribution.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Unified nonparametric equation-of-state inference from the neutron-star crust to perturbative-QCD densities

Perturbative quantum chromodynamics (pQCD), while valid only at densities exceeding those found in the cores of neutron stars, could provide constraints on the dense-matter equation of state (EOS). Here, in this work, we examine the impact of pQCD information on the inference of the EOS using a nonparametric framework based on Gaussian processes (GPs). We examine the application of pQCD constraints through a ``pQCD likelihood,'' and verify the findings of previous works; namely, a softening of the EOS at the central densities of the most massive neutron stars and a reduction in the maximum neutron-star mass. Although the pQCD likelihood can be easily integrated into existing EOS inference frameworks, this approach requires an arbitrary selection of the density at which the constraints are applied. The EOS behavior is also treated differently on either side of the chosen density. To mitigate these issues, we extend the EOS model to higher densities, thereby constructing a ``unified'' description of the EOS from the neutron-star crust to densities relevant for pQCD. In this approach the pQCD constraints effectively become part of the prior. Since the EOS is unconstrained by any calculation or data between the densities applicable to neutron stars and pQCD, we argue for maximum modeling flexibility in that regime. We compare the unified EOS with the traditional pQCD likelihood, and although we confirm the EOS softening, we do not see a reduction in the maximum neutron-star mass or any impact on macroscopic observables. Though residual model dependence cannot be ruled out, we find that pQCD suggests the speed of sound in the densest neutron-star cores has already started decreasing toward the asymptotic limit; we find that the speed of sound squared at the center of the most massive neutron star has an upper bound of $\sim 0.5$ at the 90% level.

equations of state of nuclear matter↗

Cosmology from Planck CMB lensing and DESI DR1 quasar tomography

We present a measurement of the amplitude of matter fluctuations over the redshift range 0.8 ≤ z ≤ 3.5 from the cross correlation of over 1.2 million spectroscopic quasars selected by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) across 7,200 deg 2 (∼ 170 quasars/deg 2 ) and Planck PR4 (NPIPE) cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing maps. We perform a tomographic measurement in three bins centered at effective redshiftsz=1.44, 2.27 and 2.75, which have ample overlap with the CMB lensing kernel. From a joint fit using the angular clustering of all three redshift bins (auto and cross-spectra), and including an Q m prior from DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillations to break the $Ω_{m}-σ_{8}$ degeneracy, we constrain the amplitude of matter fluctuations in the matter-dominated regime to be $σ_{8}=0.929^{+0.059}_{-0.074}$ and $S_{8}≡σ_{8}(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.922^{+0.059}_{-0.073}$. We provide a growth of structure measurement with the largest spectroscopic quasar sample to date at high redshift, which is ∼ 1.5σ higher than predictions from ΛCDM fits to measurements of the primary CMB from Planck PR4. The cross-correlation between PR4 lensing maps and DESI DR1 quasars is detected with a signal-to-noise ratio of 21.7 and the quasar auto-correlation at 27.2 for the joint analysis of all redshift bins. We combine our measurement with the CMB lensing auto-spectrum from the ground-based Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT DR6) and Planck PR4 to perform a sound-horizon-free measurement of the Hubble constant, yielding $H_{0}=69.1^{+2.2}_{-2.6} {\rm \ km\ s}^{-1}{\rm Mpc}^{-1}$ through its sensitivity to the matter-radiation equality scale.

baryon acoustic oscillations↗

The reference genome for the northeastern Pacific bull kelp, Nereocystis luetkeana

Bull kelp, Nereocystis luetkeana, is a northeastern Pacific kelp with broad distribution from Alaska to central California. Its population declines have caused severe concerns in northern California, the Salish Sea in Washington, and recently in some populations in Oregon. Despite bull kelp's accumulated ecological and physiological studies, an assembled and annotated genomic reference was still unavailable. Here, we report the complete and annotated genome of Nereocystis luetkeana, produced by the California Conservation Genomics Project (CCGP), which aims to reveal genomic diversity patterns across California by sequencing the complete genomes of approximately 150 carefully selected species. The genome was assembled into 1562 scaffolds with 449.82 Mb, 80x of coverage and 22 952 gene models. BUSCO assembly showed a completeness score of 72% for the stramenopiles gene set. The mitochondria and chloroplast genome sequences have 37 Kb and 131 Mb, respectively. The orthology analysis between 10 Phaeophycean genomes showed 1065 expanded and 286 unique orthogroups for this species. Pairwise comparisons showed 542 orthogroups present only in N. luetkeana and M. pyrifera, another large-body kelp. The enrichment analysis of these orthogroups showed important functions related to central metabolism and signaling due to ATPases enrichment in these two species. This genome assembly will provide an essential resource for the ecology, evolution, conservation, and breeding of bull kelp.

California Conservation Genomics Project—CCGP↗