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SPECs Early-Stage Decision Model: User Manual

The SPECs Early-Stage Decision (ESD) model is central to the SPECs procurement solutions toolkit. The ESD model is an Excel-based spreadsheet model, which provides information about the economic and strategic value of a proposed battery-storage project or solar-plus-storage (solar-plus) project. The model can be used to explore combinations of storage-related project value streams in order to define a potential project, while educating co-op decision-makers about project benefits and costs. A sensitivity analysis function speeds the development of "what-if" scenarios. A gap analysis function solves for top-priority metrics and supports the inclusion of hard-to-monetize strategic values, such as the value of storage to defer costly system upgrades in light of increasing distributed solar and other distributed energy resources (DERs). Model outputs include the utility data, assumptions, and use-case scenarios that are recommended content for the requests for proposals (RFPs). The model may also provide an initial "sanity check" for RFP responses, supporting further discussions among utility staff, vendors and stakeholders. The ESD is not a "finance-grade" modeling tool, and users are cautioned to be mindful of its limitations, but the model has been reviewed by users, who recommend it as a way to drive faster and better project design and planning, as well as to facilitate better communications with vendors, grid partners, and stakeholders.

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Hydrogen Production Cost with Alkaline Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis was performed to assess the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) produced using state-of-the-art Liquid Alkaline (LA) electrolysis. Projected high-volume, untaxed levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) range from 2020US $\$ 1.84$ to $\$ 2.88$/kg-H 2 depending on technology year, process design, and electrolyzer project scale, assuming an electricity price of $\$ 0.03$/kWh. The total installed capital cost for a LA electrolysis plant was estimated from bottom-up stack and installed cost models that account for purchased equipment, installation costs, site preparation, and general overhead costs. For this study, the LA electrolysis plant is assumed to be a stick-built, greenfield project developed by an EPC firm with electrolysis stacks purchased directly from an electrolysis stack manufacturer. The price of the electrolysis stacks is based on a bottom-up cost assessment with business markup for the electrolysis company fabricator. Methods from the Hydrogen Analysis (H 2 A) production model, a peer-reviewed national laboratory-developed discounted cash flow model, were used to calculate the LCOH production in 2020$/kg-H 2 . The baseline electricity price case ($\$ 0.03$/kWh) corresponds to average wholesale electricity prices currently possible in U.S. markets with plentiful wind. Similar low-cost electricity pricing is possible from solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) although these prices are typically limited by renewable energy capacity factors.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Hydrogen Production Cost with Anion Exchange Membrane Electrolysis

Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis was performed to assess the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) produced using state-of-the-art Anion Exchange Membrane (AEM) electrolysis. Projected high-volume, untaxed and unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH)1 range from 2020 $\$$1.78 to $\$$3.68/kg H 2 depending on technology year, process design, and electrolyzer project scale, assuming an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and a capacity factor of 97%. The total installed capital cost for an AEM electrolysis plant was estimated from bottom-up stack and process plant cost models. The stack cost model accounts for manufacturing equipment, equipment maintenance, material, tooling, cycle time, yield, labor, utilities and general overhead. The process plant cost model accounts for purchased equipment, installation costs, site preparation, and general overhead costs. For this study, the AEM electrolysis plant is assumed to be a stick-built, greenfield project developed by an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) firm with electrolysis stacks purchased directly from an electrolysis stack manufacturer. The price of the electrolysis stacks is based on a bottom-up cost assessment with business markup for the electrolysis company fabricator. Methods from the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) production model, a peer-reviewed national laboratory-developed discounted cash flow (DCF) model, were used to calculate the production LCOH in 2020 $\$$/kg H 2 . The baseline electricity price case ($\$$0.03/kWh) corresponds to average wholesale electricity prices currently possible in U.S. markets with plentiful wind. Similar low-cost electricity pricing is possible from solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) although these prices are typically limited by renewable energy capacity factors.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Analysis of Empirical Plant-level Data from U.S. Ground-mounted PV, PV+battery, and CSP Plants (exceeding 5 MWAC)

Berkeley Labs "Utility-Scale Solar", 2024 Edition presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. While focused on key developments in 2023, this report explores trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, net value, and interconnection queue data.

analysis↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2023 Edition: Analysis of Empirical Plant-level Data from U.S. Ground-mounted PV, PV+battery, and CSP Plants (exceeding 5 MWAC)

Berkeley Labs "Utility-Scale Solar", 2023 Edition presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. While focused on key developments in 2022, this report explores trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, and interconnection queue data.

analysis↗

Status and Trends in the Voluntary Market (2019 Data)

Green power refers to renewable electricity voluntarily purchased by retail electricity customers. Renewable energy sources for green power include solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, and small-scale hydropower. This report summarizes data on the various ways in which voluntary purchasers - including residential, commercial, and institutional customers - purchase green power. We summarize key historic trends in U.S. voluntary green power markets and the current status of green power sales through seven products: utility green pricing programs, utility renewable contracts, competitive suppliers, unbundled renewable energy certificates, community choice aggregations, power purchase agreements, and community solar.

42 ENGINEERING↗

LH CO 2 MENT Colorado Project (Final Report)

The objective of Electricore’s pre-FEED project “LH CO 2 MENT COLORADO PROJECT” is to accelerate the implementation of a 1.5 million tonnes per year (TPY), and first-of-a-kind (FOAK) at world scale, Svante VeloxoTherm™ carbon capture plant. This project represents a quantum leap to a large-scale facility that will launch Svante’s carbon capture technology into the next era of accomplishments and market acceptance. By completing the Front-End Loading (FEL) Feasibility Study Report (FEL-2) for a fit-for-purpose design at the HOLCIM cement plant, located near Florence Colorado, USA, this technology can be proven as the future of large-scale deployment for carbon capture and storage. This carbon capture plant was designed with the goal of reaching a target of near Net Zero Emissions by capturing 90% of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from the HOLCIM cement plant and from the boiler which produces steam required to regenerate the adsorbent. Additionally, this project will be leveraging a renewable Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) using solar energy to acquire power at the target price of 0.04 $/kWh or less. In its current configuration CO 2 emissions from the HOLCIM cement plant is around 700 – 800 kg/ton of clinker produced. The proposed new carbon capture plant will allow a reduction of CO 2 emissions to about 100 kg/ton of clinker produced. The scope of work consists of the process design and capital & operating cost estimation (Class IV) for a total plant capacity of 4,750 TPD of pipeline grade CO 2 . The Svante VeloxoTherm™ technology is comprised of a Rotary Adsorption Machine (RAM) for intensified Thermal Swing Adsorption (TSA) using Structured Adsorbent Beds (SABs) and related Balance of Plant (BOP), including CO 2 compression. A business case (financial analysis) evaluation has been undertaken for the Owner’s management review. Recommendations on how best to proceed to the next stage of the project have been conveyed and are documented within this report. This analysis has relied on a detailed and comprehensive Project Financial Model, evaluating the Total Project IRR (after tax, unlevered, and including all forecast 45Q PTCs and 100% tax efficiency) – the project financial analysis (as opposed to standard TEA analysis) only considered a 12 year plant economic lifetime as a result of 45Q being the sole driver considered at this stage. The Total Project IRR was evaluated across a large number of potential scenarios. The evaluation demonstrated that if the 45Q PTD is increased to $85/MT for sequestration, there are a large number of feasible scenarios which demonstrate economic returns.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2022 Edition: Analysis of Empirical Plant-level Data from U.S. Ground-mounted PV, PV+battery, and CSP Plants (exceeding 5 MWAC)

Berkeley Labs "Utility-Scale Solar", 2022 Edition presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. While focused on key developments in 2021, this report explores trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, and interconnection queue data.

2022↗

Utility-Scale Solar, 2021 Edition

Berkeley Labs "Utility-Scale Solar", 2021 Edition presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC. While focused on key developments in 2020, this report explores trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, and interconnection queue data.

2021↗

Scaling Equitable Finance

Driven by dramatic declines in up-front cost, the U.S. solar photovoltaics (PV) industry has taken off over the past decade, growing from 1 gigawatt of installed capacity in 2009 to 89 gigawatts in 2020—or enough capacity to power roughly 19 million homes. The industry is expected to double in size over just the next 5 years.1 Much of the growth has been driven by large, utility-scale projects that can produce 5 mega- watts or more of power—enough to power at least 1,000 homes. The cost of electricity produced by these projects has decreased by more than 70 percent since 2010. As of Q3 2020, development costs of large, util- ity-scale solar PV power plants were under $1 per watt, down by more than 70 percent from 2010.2 A robust array of investors has come forward to efficiently deliver capital to these kinds of utility-scale projects including large banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and others. But low- and moderate-income communities, including communities of color, are at risk of being left behind in the transition to clean energy. Mission- driven solar project developers and financial institu- tions have been working alongside energy justice advocates to open up solar access for these communi- ties, using strategies ranging from community solar, to solar installations on affordable multifamily housing, to distributed solar and storage programs, and more. Their goals go beyond simply generating more green energy to advancing social equity by: • empowering communities to control their energy future • stabilizing energy prices, saving money, and build- ing wealth for low-income families • creating quality jobs • improving health by reducing pollution • providing energy resilience for vulnerable communities Mission-driven actors are successfully deploying a wide variety of strategies to meet these goals, from helping low-income homeowners get solar—and some- times battery storage, to developing solar projects serv- ing affordable rental housing and community facilities, to building larger “shared solar” projects to which households from across the community can subscribe. However, the financing ecosystem does not work nearly as well for these “mission driven” solar proj- ects as it does for utility-scale projects. For home rooftop solar, even if low-income consumers have a home and suitable roof, they may fail to qualify for federal tax incentives, lack adequate credit to qualify for a loan—or the mission-driven lenders seeking to serve them may not be adequately capitalized to make long-term loans. For mission-driven commercial or community-scale projects, assembling nearly every component of the project capital stack—whether bridging early-stage costs, attracting tax credit equity investors, securing long-term debt, or coming up with sponsor equity and filling gaps—can present challenges. A variety of obstacles contribute to the scarcity of financing for low-income solar, including small project sizes, lack of developer balance sheet capacity, both real and perceived issues with credit risk, elevated technical assistance needs, and greater subsidy requirements to pursue goals such as deep energy affordability, climate resilience, or job creation. Still other obstacles are regulatory: for example, not all states allow community solar projects or Power Purchase Agreements, common strategies used for providing low-income solar—and the potential for regulations to shift over time creates risks that mission-driven projects can ill afford. This report synthesizes information garnered from 47 key informant interviews, four focus group discus- sions involving 60 stakeholders, and a review of the substantial existing literature on low-income solar finance to assess the current landscape of mission- driven solar development in the United States, examine the roles that community-based financial institutions could play, and recommend public invest- ments and policy changes that could help to scale the provision of equitable solar finance. Key recommen- dations for policymakers and funders in the renew- able energy and community development fields that emerge from this process include the following: • Help to capitalize and support community-based lenders to provide flexible, low-cost, and long- term financing to mission-driven solar projects— including providing guarantees or other forms of credit enhancement. • Provide federal support for equitable solar, including a grant-in-lieu-of-credits option for the Investment Tax Credit to improve access to this critical government subsidy. • Develop pools of government and philanthropic support that can complement financing from community-based lenders to complete the capi- tal stack for mission-driven projects, as well as to support education and technical assistance to both consumers and potential project sponsors. • Create a national Renewable Energy Credits pro- gram that includes social equity targets to provide a baseline of support for clean energy generation. • Change utility regulations to remove barriers to low-income solar projects; lower permitting costs; provide greater certainty for developers, consumers and owners; and measure progress toward equity in renewable energy policy implementation.

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Solar +: Clean Energy Strategies for the Sunshine State (Final Technical Report (FTR) of the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR))

This reports on a four-year effort to provide foundational research, analysis, strategies and assistance to help Florida, and other states that might learn from this work, to grow solar energy in conjunction with other distributed energy resources by addressing and overcoming existing barriers, and in way that delivers increased value. The start of this effort coincided with an inflection point of sorts into a new dawn for solar energy in Florida, where the Sunshine state’s national ranking in total installed solar, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), has rose from 13th to 4th. Florida has now become the national leader in annual utility-scale solar growth as dozens of large plants have come online. Also, during this time, Florida utilities have expressed a strong and growing interest in understanding the role of energy storage and how to best plan for and deploy this unique resource as part of strategies to grow solar. The utility-scale solar growth experienced has been fueled by the economics of solar cost-parity with natural gas combined cycle plants and Florida Public Service Commission’s (PSC) approval of cost-recovery for the Investor-Owned Utilities (IOU’s), primarily through the Solar Base Rate Adjustment (SoBRA) mechanism. This has led to gigawatts (GW’s) of rate-based solar capacity additions over several years, along with fairly significant amounts of energy storage. Meanwhile, municipal electric utilities, which, collectively, are the third largest source of power in the state, have been increasing solar considerably through power purchase agreements (PPA’s) and are on track to have close to 1 GW of grid-connected solar by 2024. Florida’s municipal utilities and the Florida Municipal Electric Association (FMEA) have been key partners in the Florida Alliance for Accelerating Solar and Storage Technology Readiness (FAASSTeR), formed to carry out this effort. The six largest of these have been Core Team utilities, engaging throughout the project in weekly calls, discussions, and project direction, participating in and hosting workshops and benefiting from technical assistance in several areas.

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How Local Governments Can Buy Renewable Energy and Support Market Development

This webinar covers strategies local governments can consider to procure renewable energy and support renewable energy market development, including power purchase agreements (PPAs), virtual power purchase agreements (VPPAs), community solar, and more. This webinar also covers how the regulatory landscape impacts the RE purchasing options available to a particular community and highlight case studies from local governments across the U.S. that have successfully implemented these strategies, including Arlington, Virginia and Denver, Colorado. This webinar provides one AICP CM continuing education credit. Who: Chad Laurent, Esq., Principal, Cadmus Group; Jonathan Rogers, Renewable Energy Specialist, Office of Climate Action, Sustainability, Resiliency at the City and County of Denver; John Morrill, Energy Manager, Office of Sustainability & Environmental Management, Arlington County Department of Environmental Services

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Utility-Scale Solar Data Update (2020 Edition) [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s 2020 update of utility-scale solar data and trends provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. market, with a focus on 2019. Highlights of this year’s update include: More than 4.5 GWAC of utility-scale solar (i.e., ground-mounted solar projects larger than 5 MWAC) achieved commercial operations in 2019, bringing cumulative capacity to 29 GWAC. Projects are spread across all 10 regions that we track, though more heavily concentrated in the sunniest regions. The median installed cost of projects that came online in 2019 fell to $\$$1.4/WAC ($\$$1.2/WDC), down 20% from 2018 and down by more than 70% from 2010. 77% of projects and 88% of capacity added in 2019 used single-axis tracking. Average capacity factors range from 17% in the least-sunny regions to 30% where it is sunniest. Single-axis tracking adds roughly five percentage points to capacity factor in the regions with the strongest solar resource. Nationwide average levelized power purchase agreement (PPA) prices fell to $\$$24/MWh in 2019, down 17% from 2018 and more than 80% since 2010. Thirty-nine projects (totaling 4.2 GWAC) in our PPA price sample include battery storage (totaling 2.3 GWAC and 9.5 GWh). In the “lower 48” states, a number of these recent PV+battery PPAs have been inked in the mid-$\$$20/MWh range (levelized in 2019 dollars).Not including the 30% investment tax credit (ITC), the median levelized cost of energy (LCOE) from utility-scale PV has declined by 85% since 2010, to $\$$40/MWh in 2019. When the 30% ITC is included within the LCOE calculation, the median LCOE closely tracks the median PPA price over time. In higher-penetration markets like CAISO, the value of solar has been declining, but falling PPA prices have largely kept pace, preserving solar's net value. At the end of 2019, there were nearly 370 GW of solar in interconnection queues from all 7 ISOs and 30 additional utilities across the country. Nearly a third of this proposed solar capacity is paired with battery storage.

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Case Study: Healthcare Realty's Medical Office Solar PV

This case study describes how Healthcare Realty partnered with a renewable energy advisor to establish its solar program and make progress towards its energy and GHG emissions reduction goals; all of the projects in the pipeline will be financed through third-party ownership, via power purchase agreements or through a feed-in-tariff program.

solar, solar PV, photovoltaic, onsite solar, healt↗

Decision support for United States—Canada energy integration is impaired by fragmentary environmental and electricity system modeling capacity

The renewable energy transition is leading to increased electricity trade between the United States and Canada, with Canadian hydropower providing firm lower-carbon power and buffering variability of wind and solar generation in the U.S. However, long-term power purchase agreements and transborder transmission projects are controversial, with two of four proposed transmission lines between Quebec, Canada and the northeast U.S. cancelled since 2018. Here, we argue that controversies are exacerbated by a lack of open-source data and tools to understand tradeoffs of new hydropower generation and transmission infrastructure in comparison to alternatives. This gap includes impacts that incremental transmission and generation projects have on the economics of the entire system, for example, how new transmission projects affect exports to existing markets or incentivize new generation. We identify priority areas for data synthesis and model development, such as integrating linked hydropower and hydrologic interactions in energy system models and openly releasing (by utilities) or back-calculating (by researchers) hydropower generation and operational parameters. Publicly available environmental (e.g. streamflow, precipitation) and techno-economic (e.g. costs, reservoir size,) data can be used to parameterize freely usable and extensible models. Existing models have been calibrated with operational data from Canadian utilities that are not publicly available, limiting the range of scientific and commercial questions these tools have been used to answer and the range of parties that have been involved. Studies conducted using highly resolved, national-scale public data exist in other countries, notably, the United States, and demonstrate how greater transparency and extensibility can drive industry action. Improved data availability in Canada could facilitate approaches that (1) increase participation in decarbonization planning by a broader range of actors; (2) allow independent characterizations of environmental, health, and economic outcomes of interest to the public; and (3) identify decarbonization pathways consistent with community values.

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Concentrating solar thermal power in the U.S.: lessons from setbacks at Ivanpah, light for the future

Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) exhibits promise as a source of firm electricity. The proposed termination of Ivanpah’s power purchase agreement hinders confidence in the country’s CSP future. This work highlights how the lack of thermal energy storage (TES) undermined the first-of-a-kind plant’s economics as California’s grid transformed. Then, possible futures of the Ivanpah facility are analyzed; results show retrofitting with state-of-the-art TES systems could provide better returns.

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