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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Physics-Informed Persistence Models for Simultaneously Forecasting GHI, DNI, and DHI

Observation-based statistical models have been widely used in forecasting solar energy; however, existing models often lack a clear relation to physics and are limited largely to global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts over relatively short time horizons (< 1 hour). Incorporating physics into observation-based models, increasing forecast time horizons and developing a model system for forecasting not only GHI but also direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) remain challenging, especially under cloudy conditions because of complex cloud-radiation interactions. This work attempts to address these challenges by developing a hierarchy of four new physics-informed persistence models that can be used to simultaneously forecast GHI, DNI and DHI. The decade-long measurements (1998 to 2014) at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)'s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site are used to evaluate the performance of the new models. Overall, the results show that the new physics-informed forecast models generally outperform the simple and smart persistence models, and improve the forecast accuracy at lead times from 1.25 hours up to 6 hours. Further analysis reveals that the forecast error is highly related to the error and temporal variability of the assumed cloud predictor. The best model for forecasting different radiative components can be explained by the relationship between solar irradiances and cloud properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A next-generation liquid xenon observatory for dark matter and neutrino physics

The nature of dark matter and properties of neutrinos are among the most pressing issues in contemporary particle physics. The dual-phase xenon time-projection chamber is the leading technology to cover the available parameter space for weakly interacting massive particles, while featuring extensive sensitivity to many alternative dark matter candidates. These detectors can also study neutrinos through neutrinoless double-beta decay and through a variety of astrophysical sources. A next-generation xenon-based detector will therefore be a true multi-purpose observatory to significantly advance particle physics, nuclear physics, astrophysics, solar physics, and cosmology. This review article presents the science cases for such a detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Part II, Machine Learning and Model Interpretability

Machine learning (ML) models have been applied to forecast solar energy; however, they often lack clarity of interpretability and underlying physics. This work addresses such challenges by developing a hierarchy of ML models that gradually introduce predictors to improve the forecast accuracy based on a physics-based framework. Three ML models (ARIMA, LSTM, and XGBoost) are examined and compared with four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I and the simple persistence model to assess the improvement of different models. The 7-year measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Southern Great Plains Central Facility site are used for forecasts and evaluations. The results reveal that the step-by-step introduction of predictors leads to different improvements for models at different hierarchical levels. Comparison of the ML models with persistence models shows that LSTM and XGBoost outperform all the persistence models, with LSTM having the overall best performance; however, ARIMA underperforms the four physics-informed persistence models. This study demonstrates the importance and utility of incorporating physics into ML models in improving forecast accuracy by introducing a hierarchy of physics-based predictors, distinguishing predictor contributions, and enhancing the ML interpretability. The combined use of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) significantly improves the forecast accuracy compared to using individual irradiances alone because the pair contains more information on cloud-radiation interactions.

interpretability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unlocking the Sun's Secrets: Laboratory Insights into the Sun's Outer Atmosphere

The Sun’s corona, its outermost and hottest atmospheric layer, emits brightly in the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and X-rays. This emission comes from atoms that have been highly ionized by the high temperature, forming a plasma of atomic ions and free electrons. By studying this light, scientists learn about the complex and dynamic drivers of solar activity. Many past, current, and future solar observatories focus on measuring EUV spectra from the Fe IX ion, as this ion provides powerful diagnostics for solar physics. Using Fe IX spectra, solar physicists can measure the plasma temperature, density, elemental abundances, and flow velocities in the corona. However, atomic data uncertainties concerning spectral line identification and plasma density diagnostics are a major problem for the accurate interpretation of these spectra.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solar Neutrino Detection with a Pixelated Liquid-Argon Time Projection Chamber

This thesis presents a study of low-energy solar neutrino detection using large-scale LArTPCs, focussing on novel pixelated readout technologies. Solar neutrinos offer a unique probe of fundamental neutrino properties and solar physics, but their detection in the MeV range is challenged by backgrounds. We investigate two complementary technologies: SoLAr, which integrates LArPix-based pixelated charge collection with Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs) in a hybrid anode design for simultaneous charge and light detection; and Q-Pix, a triggerless pixelated readout architecture based on charge integrate-reset circuits with local clocks, where Reset Time Differences encode ionisation waveforms via time-to-charge conversion. Two SoLAr prototypes were developed and operated, demonstrating VUV-sensitive SiPM performance in liquid argon and accurate charge-light signal matching with a charge detection threshold of $\sim 100 \mathrm{keV}$. We also implement a complete simulation and reconstruction framework, incorporating realistic detector geometry, electron transport, readout response, and detailed signal and background models, including intrinsic argon and radon progeny, as well as site-specific $\gamma$-ray and neutron fluxes. For Q-Pix, we demonstrate that with a pixel size of $4\times 4$ mm$^2$ and a reset threshold of 1 fC ($\sim 0.1475$ MeV), full-scale operation produces data volumes below 1 PB per 10 ktonne-year. For SoLAr, assuming a shielded DUNE-like detector and 100 ktonne-year exposure, we project uncertainties of $0.90\times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ on $\Delta m^2_{21}$ and 0.033 on $\sin^2\theta_{12}$, improving to $0.46\times 10^{-5}$ eV$^2$ and 0.025 with 400 kilotonne-year. At this higher exposure, we also obtain a day–night flux asymmetry at the level of $( -5.6 \pm 3.6 ) \%$. Combining Monte Carlo modelling, hardware validation, and advanced reconstruction techniques, this work establishes a path toward next-generation ktonne-scale LArTPCs as observatories for precision solar neutrino physics.

Ruiz Ferreira, Guilherme [Manchester U.] (ORCID:00↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Surface Solar Irradiance Using Meteosat-8 Satellite for India and Surrounding Regions (2017-2019)

Using the Physical Solar Model, Version 3 (PSM V3), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory—in collaboration with the University of Wisconsin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and Solar Consulting Services—produced modeled surface solar irradiance based on Meteosat-8 satellite cloud information. PSM V3 implements a physics-based radiative transfer approach to model surface solar irradiance using cloud properties processed from raw satellite data and ancillary data such as aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Further, the modeled surface solar irradiance was validated using 10 high-quality ground measurement data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. The modeled data showed good correlation with the ground measurement, and the overall uncertainty is less than 35% for all validation locations. Because of the satellite viewing geometry, the Indian and European locations demonstrated higher uncertainties than the African locations, where the Meteosat-8 satellite has a more nadir viewing geometry. Further, instruction on how to access the data is provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Laboratory Calibrations of Fe xii–xiv Line-Intensity Ratios for Electron Density Diagnostics

In this work, we have used an electron beam ion trap to measure electron-density-diagnostic line-intensity ratios for extreme ultraviolet lines from Fe xii, xiii, and xiv at wavelengths of ≈185–205 and 255–276 Å. These ratios can be used as density diagnostics for astrophysical spectra and are especially relevant to solar physics. We found that density diagnostics using the Fe xiii 196.53/202.04 and the Fe xiv 264.79/274.21 and 270.52A/274.21 line ratios are reliable using the atomic data calculated with the Flexible Atomic Code (FAC). On the other hand, we found a large discrepancy between the FAC theory and experiment for the commonly used Fe xii (186.85 + 186.88)/195.12 line ratio. These FAC theory calculations give results similar to the data tabulated in CHIANTI, which are commonly used to analyze solar observations. Our results suggest that the discrepancies seen between solar coronal density measurements using the Fe xii (186.85 + 186.88)/195.12 and Fe xiii 196.54/202.04 line ratios are likely due to issues with the atomic calculations for Fe xii.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

What's New in the NSRDB

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) provides solar resource data across the globe at a high temporal and spatial resolution. This data is primarily used in solar energy modeling. The NSRDB is updated annually for the United States and North, Central and South America and the data is currently available from 1998-2021. In 2022 the NSRDB was updated using the latest version of the underlying Physical Solar Model (PSM). This update includes improved surface albedo and gap-filling of cloud properties. The inclusion of these updates reduced the uncertainty in the data compared to previous versions of the NSRDB. The Himawari and Meteosat Indian Ocean Data Coverage (IODC) satellites were added to the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and made our coverage global. While standard data from the GOES continues to be served at an hourly 4km x 4km resolution, full resolution data has also been made available to the user. The NSRDB now contains over 200Tb of data with nearly 40Tb being added annually. We provide significant flexibility for data download depending on the amount of data required by the users. In this paper we provide an update on the current status on the NSRDB.

photovoltaic systems↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data Assimilative Optimization of WSA Source Surface and Interface Radii using Particle Filtering

TheWang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model estimates solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field polarity in the inner heliosphere using global photospheric magnetic field maps. WSA employs the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) and Schatten Current Sheet (SCS) models to determine the Sun's global coronal magnetic field. The PFSS and SCS models are connected through two radial parameters, the source surface and interface radii, which specify the overlap region between the inner SCS and outer PFSS models. Though both radii values are adjustable, they have typically been fixed to 2.5 solar radii. Our work highlights how solar wind predictions improve when the radii are allowed to vary over time. Data assimilation using particle filtering (sequential Monte Carlo) is used to infer optimal values over a fixed time window. Solar wind model predictions and satellite observations are compared with a newly developed quality-of-agreement prediction metric. The agreement metric between the model and observations is assumed to correspond to the probability of the two key WSA model parameters, the source surface and interface radii, where the highest metric value implies the optimal radii.We find that the optimal particle filter values of solar radii can perform twice as well as standard values for an exploratory period during Carrington Rotation 1901, with these values also reducing nonphysical kinking effects seen in solar magnetic field lines. Data assimilation choices of input realization and time frame have implications for variation in the solar wind over time. We present this work's theoretical context and practical applications for prediction accuracy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

New method for the determination of photoabsorption from transmittance measurements in the extreme ultraviolet

We have developed a new method for the determination of photoabsorption at extreme ultraviolet wavelengths longer than 20 nm, where reliable refractive index values are sparse or non-existent. Our method overcomes the obstacle of multiple reflections that occur inside thin films in this spectral range, which up until now has prevented the accurate determination of photoabsorption from transmittance measurements. We have derived a mathematical expression that is independent of internal reflection amplitudes, while taking advantage of the transmittance oscillations stemming from such reflections. The method is validated on measurements of aluminum thin films. This advance will enable accurate refractive index values for many important materials for optical instrumentation, thus facilitating high-priority research on topics including coherent light sources, planetary and solar physics, and semiconductor manufacturing.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

High efficiency Al/Sc-based multilayer coatings in the EUV wavelength range above 40 nanometers

In this Letter, we have developed new and highly efficient periodic multilayer mirrors Al/Sc, Al/Sc/SiC, and Mo/Al/Sc with optimized reflectance at wavelengths between 40 and 65 nm. We have reached record values in measured peak reflectance: 57.5% at 44.7 nm and 46.5% at 51 nm, with Al/Sc/SiC at near-normal incidence. Furthermore, to the best of our knowledge, we have achieved the largest reported bandwidth with Mo/Al/Sc at 57 nm and the narrowest bandwidth with Al/Sc at a 60 nm wavelength. These new and promising results demonstrate that Al/Sc-based multilayer coatings are excellent candidates for future generations of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) instruments for solar physics, EUV lasers, and attosecond science, in a wavelength range that has not been fully explored.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A VIPA Spectrograph with Ultra-high Resolution and Wavelength Calibration for Astronomical Applications

A prototype spectrograph using a Virtually Imaged Phased Array (VIPA) as the main dispersion element is presented, and its performance is fully examined in our laboratory. The single-mode, fiber-fed spectrograph with simultaneous wavelength calibration possesses a spectral resolution well in excess of R≈1.12×10{sup 6} while the size of the VIPA is several orders of magnitude smaller than that of a conventional échelle with comparable resolution. In laboratory tests, the VIPA-based instrument with a homemade Yb:fiber ring laser frequency comb demonstrates a mode-to-mode tracking stability of 41 cm s{sup −1} over a period of 6 hr. The VIPA spectrograph has promising applications in various astronomical observations in which ultra-high resolution and calibration precision are imperative, such as solar physics research, exoplanet searching with the radial velocity method, and O{sub 2} detection in the atmosphere of Earth-like planets. Ultimately, feasible optimizations for night-sky observations under seeing limited conditions are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

First Fermi-LAT Solar Flare Catalog

In this work, we present the first Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT) solar flare catalog covering the 24th solar cycle. This catalog contains 45 Fermi-LAT solar flares (FLSFs) with emission in the γ-ray energy band (30 MeV–10 GeV) detected with a significance of ≥5σ over the years 2010–2018. A subsample containing 37 of these flares exhibits delayed emission beyond the prompt-impulsive hard X-ray phase, with 21 flares showing delayed emission lasting more than two hours. No prompt-impulsive emission is detected in four of these flares. We also present in this catalog observations of GeV emission from three flares originating from active regions located behind the limb of the visible solar disk. We report the lightcurves, spectra, best proton index, and localization (when possible) for all FLSFs. The γ-ray spectra are consistent with the decay of pions produced by >300 MeV protons. This work contains the largest sample of high-energy γ-ray flares ever reported and provides a unique opportunity to perform population studies on the different phases of the flare and thus allowing a new window in solar physics to be opened.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Optical and Electronic Losses Arising from Physically Mixed Interfacial Layers in Perovskite Solar Cells

Perovskite solar cell device performance is affected by optical and electronic losses. To minimize these losses in solar cells, it is important to identify their sources. Here, we report the optical and electronic losses arising from physically mixed interfacial layers between the adjacent component materials in highly efficient two terminal (2T) all-perovskite tandem, single junction wide-bandgap, and single junction narrow-bandgap perovskite-based solar cells. Physically mixed interfacial layers as the sources of optical and electronic losses are identified from spectroscopic ellipsometry measurements and data analysis followed by comparisons of simulated and measured external quantum efficiency spectra. Parasitic absorbance in the physically mixed regions between silver metal electrical contacts and electron transport layers (ETLs) near the back contact and a physical mixture of commercial indium tin oxide and hole transport layers (HTL) near the front electrical contact lead to substantial optical loss. Here, a lower-density void + perovskite nucleation layer formed during perovskite deposition at the interface between the perovskite absorber layer and the HTL causes electronic losses due to incomplete collection of photogenerated carriers likely originating from poor coverage and passivation of the initially nucleating grains.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The physical chemistry of solar fuels catalysis

The demonstration of effective light-driven electrochemical water splitting at the surface of a TiO 2 electrode in the seminal 1972 Honda–Fujishima publication spurred global research efforts to understand this effect and design advanced systems for solar H 2 generation from water as a carbon-free and sustainable fuel. In the 50+ years since that discovery, research investigating approaches toward the catalytic generation of the so-called “solar fuels,” i.e., not only H 2 from water but also CO 2 reduction products and NH 3 from N 2 , has expanded dramatically in scope and scale. The development of new experimental and computational methods and construction and commissioning of large-scale facilities have paved the way for important insights into the machinery of natural photosynthesis, leading to a greater understanding of the complexity of light-to-chemical energy conversion with an exquisite temporal and spatial resolution. Finally, these studies have provided the foundation for biologically inspired molecular and hybrid designs with the goal to promote the photochemical steps critical to solar fuels generation while avoiding unproductive or unnecessary pathways.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗