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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1991

Future mission studies: Preliminary comparisons of solar flux models

The results of comparisons of the solar flux models are presented. (The wavelength lambda = 10.7 cm radio flux is the best indicator of the strength of the ionizing radiations such as solar ultraviolet and x-ray emissions that directly affect the atmospheric density thereby changing the orbit lifetime of satellites. Thus, accurate forecasting of solar flux F sub 10.7 is crucial for orbit determination of spacecrafts.) The measured solar flux recorded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is compared against the forecasts made by Schatten, MSFC, and NOAA itself. The possibility of a combined linear, unbiased minimum-variance estimation that properly combines all three models into one that minimizes the variance is also discussed. All the physics inherent in each model are combined. This is considered to be the dead-end statistical approach to solar flux forecasting before any nonlinear chaotic approach.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS1994

EUVAC: A solar EUV flux model for aeronomic calculations

This paper presents a new solar Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) flux model for aeronomic calulations (EUVAC), which is based on the measured F74113 solar EUV reference spectrum. The model provides fluxes in the 37 wavelength bins that are in widespread use. This paper also presents cross sections to be used with the EUVAC flux model to calculate photoionization rates. The flux scaling for solar activity is accomplished using a proxy-based on the F10.7 index and its 81-day average together with the measured solar flux variation from the EUVS instrument on the Atmosphere Explorer E satellite. This new model produces 50-575 A integrated EUV fluxes in good agreement with rocket observations. The solar cycle variation of the chromospheric fluxes agrees well with the measured variation of the Lyman alpha flux between 1982 and 1988. In addition, the theoretical photoelectron fluxes, calculated using the new EUV flux model, are in good agreement with the solar minimum photoelectron fluxes from the Atmosphere Explorer E satellite and also with the solar maximum photoelectron fluxes from the Dynamics Explorer satellite. Its relative simplicity coupled with its ability to reproduce the 50-575 A solar EUV flux as well as the measured photoelectron spectrum makes the model well suited for aeronomic applications. However, EUVAC is not designed to accurately predict the solar flux variability for numerous individual lines.

Richards, P. G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Comparison of measured and modeled solar EUV flux and its effect on the E-F1 region ionosphere

Two different photochemical schemes are used to investigate the response of the E-F1 region ionosphere to different solar EUV flux models, and the results are compared with incoherent scatter radar electron density measurements taken at Millstone Hill. The latest EUV flux model (Tobiska, 1991), which incorporates more recent measurements, has generally more flux at short wavelengths compared to the Hinteregger et al. (1981) flux model based on AE-E satellite data. This results in better agreement with the measurements in the E-F1 region and above. The Tobiska flux model gives a smaller E region peak density, due to the influence of low Ly-beta flux in the November 10, 1988 rocket measurements of Woods and Rottman (1990). The photoionization and photoabsorption cross sections of Conway (1988) give results in somewhat better agreement with observations than the cross sections of Torr et al. (1979). For the zenith angles considered (daytime conditions), the Chapman function method for calculating photoabsorption yields results in satisfactory agreement with a more rigorous calculation method using a formula from Rees (1989).

Buonsanto, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A model of solar flux attenuation during eclipse passage and its effects on photoelectron emission from satellite surfaces

The basic theory of solar flux attenuation by the earth's atmosphere is reviewed and a model of the time-varying flux observed by a satellite during eclipse passage developed. The general model is applied to the specific problem of variations in photoelectron flux during penumbral passage and the effects of wavelength, solar activity, and atmospheric constituents on photoelectron emission investigated. Predictions of the photoelectron current expected from tungsten and aluminum surfaces are then successfully compared with actual observations from the ATS-5 and Injun 5 satellites confirming the validity of the model.

Garrett, H. B.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Ionospheric propagation correction modeling for satellite altimeters

The theoretical basis and avaliable accuracy verifications were reviewed and compared for ionospheric correction procedures based on a global ionsopheric model driven by solar flux, and a technique in which measured electron content (using Faraday rotation measurements) for one path is mapped into corrections for a hemisphere. For these two techniques, RMS errors for correcting satellite altimeters data (at 14 GHz) are estimated to be 12 cm and 3 cm, respectively. On the basis of global accuracy and reliability after implementation, the solar flux model is recommended.

Nesterczuk, G.↗
NASA NTRS1971

More solar models and neutrino fluxes.

Derivation of neutrino fluxes from a sequence of solar models that differ from one another in regard to opacity, equation of state, and nuclear cross-section factors. Using current estimates of the relevant input parameters, capture rates are obtained that range between three and ten times the most recent result of the Davis Cl 37 neutrino-capture experiment. The contribution to a theoretical capture rate due to neutrinos from all reactions other than B 8 decay ranges from 0.5 to 1.5 times the latest observational result. Comparison with results of other solar model calculations indicates reasonable agreement when results are normalized to the same input parameters.

Abraham, Z.↗
NASA NTRS1977

An emerging flux model for the solar flare phenomenon

An outline is presented of the physical processes involved in the emerging flux model, which appears to explain naturally many solar flare observations. The separate physical phases of the basic model include a preflare heating phase as the new flux emerges, an impulsive phase as high-energy particles are accelerated, a flash (or explosive) phase when the H-alpha intensity increases, and a main phase while it decreases. The extent and morphology of the main phase emission depend on the structure of the magnetic field region in which the new flux finds itself imbedded. It is suggested that a (small) simple loop flare occurs if the new flux appears in a region where no great amount of magnetic energy in excess of potential is stored. A two-ribbon flare occurs if the flux emerges near the polarity inversion line of an active region that has begun to develop filaments.

Heyvaerts, J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Flux tube models of solar plages

The spectroscopic properties of model solar plages composed of narrow magnetic flux tubes embedded in undisturbed quiet sun are analyzed. The final models are magnetostatic flux tubes for which the level tau5000 = 1 level is 200 km below the same level in the quiet sun; these models are hotter than the quiet sun at all levels and expand by roughly a factor of three between this level and the quiet sun temperature minimum. These models are tested against a wide range of observational constraints. The assumed flux tube diameter is found to be an important parameter for predictions of the center-to-limb variation of the magnetically insensitive lines and of the visible continuum. A diameter of 300 km at tau5000 = 1 is necessary to give qualitative agreement with observations. A model plage consisting of the derived flux tube model embedded in a quiet sun model derived from the Ca II K line wings reproduces this line in plages at the observed value of mu; one of the models also predicts values of disk center plage contrast at 30, 50, 100, and 200 micron wavelength in good agreement with the observations of Jefferies et al. (1982).

Walton, Stephen R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Plasmaspheric helium ion distribution from satellite observations of He II 304-A

High sensitivity and spatial resolution observations of the He II 304-A emission line intensity in the earth's nightglow have been carried out by the extreme ultraviolet telescope on the Apollo-Soyuz mission in July, 1975. The data, obtained over a wide range of plasmasphere parameters, are compared to the predictions of a kinetic equilibrium model of plasmaspheric ion density. Excellent agreement between observation and theory is found using as inputs a temperature model, solar flux and H(+) and O(+) number densities determined by extrapolating nearly simultaneous Atmospheric Explorer C measurements at 300 km. The observations in the Northern Hemisphere are well fit by a model having 285 He(+) ions/cu cm at 500 km independent of latitude or longitude, while those in the south require 430 He(+) ions/cu cm at the same altitude. This result is consistent with available information on the interhemispheric asymmetry of He(+) observed by a mass spectrometer on Explorer 32 and on the winter neutral helium bulge.

Chakrabarti, S.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Radiative effects of the arctic haze

During the recent Arctic Gas and Aerosols Sampling Project flight series, the absorption of solar radiation by the Arctic haze was measured directly for the first time. Absorpton was measured in three narrow band channels, and the measurements were used to calibrate a high resolution solar flux model, which was then used to compute atmospheric heating rates. Analyses of data from three flights with estimated optical depths of 0.26, 0.17, and 0.31 at 500 nm produced instantaneous solar heating rates of the order of 1.1 to 1.5 K/day. These rates are greater by a factor of 2 to 3 than heating in the absence of the haze. Possible climatic implications are briefly discussed.

Valero, F. P. J.↗
NASA NTRS1972

An empirical model of energetic solar proton fluxes with applications to earth orbiting spacecraft

An empirical model for energetic solar proton fluxes is presented. With this model, the effects of such protons on geocentric space missions, to be flown during the next solar active period (1966-1983) and with orbits involving partial magnetospheric shielding, may be estimated. A synoptic background review is given, followed by a detailed discussion of the model's analytic development. Also given are comments on the model's use, errors, uncertainties, and limitations, including sample calculations which demonstrate the application of specific or general project missions. Finally, for circular trajectories, percentage exposure maps are presented, depicting fractional mission times spent outside particular L-shells as functions of orbit altitude and inclination.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Resolution of the discrepancy between Balmer alpha emission rates, the solar Lyman beta flux, and models of geocoronal hydrogen concentration

New satellite Balmer alpha measurements and solar Lyman beta flux and line profile measurements, together with new measurements of the zodiacal light intensity used in correcting both ground and satellite Balmer alpha measurements for the effects of the Fraunhofer line in the zodiacal light, have been used in a reevaluation of the long-standing discrepancy between ground-based Balmer alpha emission rates and other geocoronal hydrogen parameters. The solar Lyman beta line center flux is found to be (4.1 plus or minus 1.3) billion photons per sq cm per sec per angstrom at S(10.7) equals 110 and, together with a current hydrogen model which has 92,000 atoms per cu cm at 650 km for T(inf) equals 950 K, gives good agreement between calculated Balmer alpha emission rates and the ground-based and satellite measurements.

Levasseur, A.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Time Exceedances for High Intensity Solar Proton Fluxes

A model is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.

Xapsos, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Using a Magnetic Flux Transport Model to Predict the Solar Cycle

We present the results of an investigation into the use of a magnetic flux transport model to predict the amplitude of future solar cycles. Recently Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman (2006) showed how their dynamo model could be used to accurately predict the amplitudes of the last eight solar cycles and offered a prediction for the next solar cycle - a large amplitude cycle. Cameron & Schussler (2007) found that they could reproduce this predictive skill with a simple 1-dimensional surface flux transport model - provided they used the same parameters and data as Dikpati, de Toma, & Gilman. However, when they tried incorporating the data in what they argued was a more realistic manner, they found that the predictive skill dropped dramatically. We have written our own code for examining this problem and have incorporated updated and corrected data for the source terms - the emergence of magnetic flux in active regions. We present both the model itself and our results from it - in particular our tests of its effectiveness at predicting solar cycles.

Lyatskaya, S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Atmospheric Response to High Nonthermal Electron Beam Fluxes in Solar Flares. I. Modeling the Brightest NUV Footpoints in the X1 Solar Flare of 2014 March 29

The 2014 March 29 X1 solar flare (SOL20140329T17:48) produced bright continuum emission in the far- and near-ultraviolet (NUV) and highly asymmetric chromospheric emission lines, providing long-sought constraints on the heating mechanisms of the lower atmosphere in solar flares. We analyze the continuum and emission line data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) of the brightest flaring magnetic footpoints in this flare. We compare the NUV spectra of the brightest pixels to new radiative-hydrodynamic predictions calculated with the RADYN code using constraints on a nonthermal electron beam inferred from the collisional thick-target modeling of hard X-ray data from Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager. We show that the atmospheric response to a high beam flux density satisfactorily achieves the observed continuum brightness in the NUV. The NUV continuum emission in this flare is consistent with hydrogen (Balmer) recombination radiation that originates from low optical depth in a dense chromospheric condensation and from the stationary beam-heated layers just below the condensation. A model producing two flaring regions (a condensation and stationary layers) in the lower atmosphere is also consistent with the asymmetric Fe II chromospheric emission line profiles observed in the impulsive phase.

Kowalski, Adam F.↗