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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 – 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about 140 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 ± 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.

Solar Cycle Predictions↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Cycle 25 Model Prediction Comparisons: an Engineering Perspective

The solar cycle 25 progression is ramping up, prompting satellite operators to provide estimates of propellent usage over the next several years. Drag due to atmospheric heating from solar activity is the main driver to satellite lifetime decay, especially for those in low-Earth orbit destinations. In this poster, several model predictions of the sunspot number are compared and discussed with comments on applicability to engineering programs.

Space Weather↗
NASA NTRS2018

Effects of Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number on Naive Predictions of Solar Cycle 25

The recalibration of the International Sunspot Number brings new challenges to predictions of Solar Cycle 25. One is that the list of extrema for the original series is no longer usable because the values of all maxima and minima are different for the new version of the sunspot number. Timings of extrema are less sensitive to the recalibration but are a natural result of the calculation. Predictions of Solar Cycle 25 published before 2016 must be converted to the new version of the sunspot number. Any prediction method that looks across the entire time span will have to be reconsidered because values in the nineteenth century were corrected by a larger factor than those in the twentieth century. We report a list of solar maxima and minima values and timings based on the recalibrated sunspot number. Naïve forecasts that depend only on the current values of the time series are common in economic studies. Several naïve predictions of Solar Cycle 25, the climatological average (180 ± 60), two versions of the inertial forecast, and two versions of the even-odd forecast, are derived from that table. The climatological average forecast is the baseline for more accurate predictions and the initial forecast in assimilative models of the Sun. It also provides the error estimate for Monte Carlo techniques that anticipate the long-term effects on the terrestrial environment. The other four predictions are shown to be statistically insignificant.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗
NASA NTRS2023

What Do Halo Cmes Tell Us About Solar Cycle 25?

It is known that the weak state of the heliosphere due to diminished solar activity in cycle 24 backreacted on coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to make them appear wider for a given speed. One of the consequences of the weak state of the heliosphere is that more CMEs appear as halo CMEs (HCMEs), and halos are formed at shorter heliocentric distances. Current predictions for the strength of solar cycle (SC) 25 range from half to twice the strength of SC 24. We compare the HCME occurrence rate and other properties during the rise phase of cycles 23, 24, and 25 to weigh in on the strength of SC 25. We find that HCME and solar wind properties in SC 25 are intermediate between SCs 23 and 24, but closer to SC 24. The HCME occurrence rate, normalized to the sunspot number, is higher in SCs 24 and 25 than in SC 23. The solar wind total pressure in SC 25 is ∼35% smaller than that in SC 23. Furthermore, the occurrence rates of high-energy solar energetic particle events and intense geomagnetic storms are well below the corresponding values in SC 23, but similar to those in SC 24. We conclude that cycle 25 is likely to be similar to or slightly stronger than cycle 24, in agreement with polar-field precursor methods for cycle 25 prediction.

Solar coronal mass ejections↗
DOE OSTI2026

A New Phase for Space Weather

As we move into the declining phase of solar cycle 25, the sunspot number is going down but space weather impacts are not disappearing. Solar energetic particle events, large x-ray flares, and geomagnetic storms are still happening and the declining phase will bring a different balance of hazards. The need for space weather science, space weather applications, and an interface between research, application, and stakeholder communities has not passed. Observations and insights from solar cycle 25 will continue to help us prepare for solar cycle 26, so that we approach the next solar maximum with better predictions, better understanding of outcomes, and a stronger community enabling more confident mitigation and clearer outreach.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Solar Cycle Variation on Space Weather

We report on the solar cycle variation of solar eruptions and their space weather consequences during solar cycles 23-25. While the solar activity cycle is primarily expressed in terms of the Sunspot number (SSN), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provide a different perspective on the solar cycle owing to their origin in sunspot regions as well as other non-spot magnetic regions such as quiescent filament regions. Weak solar activity observed in solar cycle 24 has been found to result in a weak heliospheric state, which backreacted on CME properties. The cycle resulted in mild space weather in that the number of large solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms decreased significantly. The occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms and high-energy SEP events was drastically reduced, much more than the reduction in the solar activity. The current status of solar cycle 25 indicates that it will be similar to solar cycle 24 or slightly stronger, which means a mild space weather in this cycle as well. We illustrate this using the data obtained during the rise phase of solar cycle 25 in comparison with the corresponding phases in cycles 23 and 24.

Nat Gopalswamy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Shielding Considerations for CubeSat Structures During Solar Maximum

The purpose of this lessons learned is to communicate the utility of shielding in small spacecraft planning for the support of mission assurance and reliability. Numerous SmallSats have been flying in polar low earth orbit for scientific, communications, technology demonstrations, and imaging with academic, commercial, and government interests. Shielding has been part of mission assurance and reliability from the advent of long duration spacecraft missions. The Shields-1 CubeSat has been operating in polar low earth orbit since 16 December 2018 with atomic number (Z)-grade radiation shielding and demonstrates shielding effectiveness. Shields-1 has collected a representative example of solar minimum data in 2019 with 8 Teledyne dosimeters over varying shielding effectiveness. It serves as current experimental data and has been compared with NOVICE Shielding estimates using the AP8 –AE8 trapped radiation model with the Shields-1 CAD and generic CubeSat 3 unit (U) models. Using NOVICE model radiation analysis coding, the shielding effectiveness's, based on a generic CubeSat 3U structure with 4 electronic boards, were estimated for aluminum wall thicknesses ranging from 0.204 cmto4.44 cm (0.550 g/cm2–12.0 g/cm2) thick aluminum. For modeled polar orbiting spacecraft, solar maximum total ionizing dose (TID)increases by nearly a magnitude for thin-walled aluminum 0.550g/cm2-0.686 g/cm2(0.204 cm –0.254 cm) typical CubeSat structures. The shielding effectiveness by NOVICE Sigma estimates, which is a shielding sphere approximation around a detector, showed a linear relationship with wall thickness, which increased over the wall thickness by a ratio of 1.43 determined by linear regression analysis. Using NOVICE Adjoint Monte-Carlo Modeling of solar minimum and solar maximum with the inclusion of a worst-case solar particle event over a one year mission without geomagnetic shielding, the TID for minimum and maximum conditions for a generic 3U with a wall thickness of 0.254 cm is 158 RAD and 1540 RAD, respectively. The modeled total solar maximum TID is over estimated, because at low orbital latitudes a spacecraft will have shielding from Earth's magnetic field. However, TID will still be significant at high latitudes over the poles, where a spacecraft is exposed in a solar particle event. In contrast, to a thin walled generic 3U CubeSat, Shields-1 electronics enclosure has a shielding effectiveness of 21.3 g/cm2from NOVICE Sigma modeling and is expected to show reduced total ionizing dose increases during the present active Solar Cycle 25 period. Because solar particle events during solar maximum increase TID on electronic parts with thin-walled shielding in short periods of time, it is a mission assurance and reliability consideration on the spacecraft’s mission value versus adding shielding for risk reduction of premature spacecraft or instrument payload loss. Since the volumes of many instruments and system electronics have reduced with small spacecraft, shielding material costs and weight penalties have diminished. A small spacecraft project budget and schedule may limit traditional radiation-hardened part use and radiation testing requirements, where shielding can contribute to mission assurance and reliability with reduced costs.

Shields-1↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Shielding Considerations for CubeSat Structures During Solar Maximum

The purpose of this lessons learned paper is to communicate the utility of shielding in small spacecraft planning for the support of mission assurance and reliability. Numerous SmallSats have been flying in polar low Earth orbit for science, communications, technology demonstrations, and imaging with academic, commercial, and government interests. Shielding has been part of mission assurance and reliability from the advent of long duration spacecraft missions. The Shields-1 CubeSat has been operating in polar low Earth orbit since 16 December 2018 with atomic number (Z)-grade radiation shielding and demonstrates shielding effectiveness. Shields-1 has collected a representative example of solar minimum data in 2019 with eight Teledyne µDosimeters over varying shielding effectivenesses. It serves as current experimental data and has been compared with NOVICE Shielding estimates using the AP8 – AE8 trapped radiation model with the Shields-1 CAD and generic CubeSat three unit (3U) models. Using NOVICE model radiation analysis coding, the shielding effectivenesses, based on a generic CubeSat 3U structure with four electronic boards, were estimated for aluminum wall thicknesses ranging from 0.204 cm to 4.44 cm (0.550 g/cm 2 to 12.0 g/cm 2 ). For modeled polar orbiting spacecraft, solar maximum total ionizing dose (TID) increases by nearly a magnitude for thin-walled aluminum 0.550-g/cm 2 - 0.686-g/cm 2 (0.204-cm – 0.254-cm) typical CubeSat structures. The shielding effectiveness estimated by NOVICE Sigma, which is a shielding sphere approximation around a detector, showed a linear relationship with wall thickness, which increased over the wall thickness by a ratio of 1.43 determined by linear regression analysis. Using NOVICE Adjoint Monte-Carlo Modeling of solar minimum and solar maximum with the inclusion of a worst-case solar particle event over a one-year mission without geomagnetic shielding, the TID for minimum and maximum conditions for a generic 3U with a wall thickness of 0.254 cm is 158 RAD and 1540 RAD, respectively. The modeled total solar maximum TID is over estimated, because at low orbital latitudes a spacecraft will have shielding from the Earth’s magnetic field. However, TID will still be significant at high latitudes over the poles, where a spacecraft is exposed in a solar particle event. In contrast to a thin-walled generic 3U CubeSat, the Shields-1 electronics enclosure has a shielding effectiveness of 21.3 g/cm 2 from NOVICE Sigma modeling and is expected to show reduced total ionizing dose increases during the present active Solar Cycle 25 period. Because solar particle events during solar maximum increase TID on electronic parts with thin-walled shielding in short periods of time, it is a mission assurance and reliability consideration on the mission value of the spacecraft versus adding shielding for risk reduction of premature spacecraft or instrument payload loss. Since the volumes of many instruments and system electronics have reduced with small spacecraft, shielding material costs and weight penalties have diminished. A small spacecraft project budget and schedule may limit traditional radiation-hardened part use and radiation testing requirements, where shielding can contribute to mission assurance and reliability with reduced costs.

Shields-1↗
NASA NTRS2024

An Interesting Correlation Between the Peak Slope and Peak Value of a Sunspot Cycle

The maximum slope of the sunspot number during the rising phase of a sunspot cycle has an excellent correlation with the maximum value of the sunspot number during that cycle. This is demonstrated using a Savitzky–Golay filter to both smooth and calculate the derivative of the sunspot-number data. Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number (S) is used to represent solar activity. The maximum of the slope during the rising phase of each cycle was correlated against the peaks of solar activity. Using three different correlation fits, the average predicted amplitude for Solar Cycle 25 is 130.7 ± 0.5, among the best correlations in solar predictions. A possible explanation for this correlation is given by the similar behavior of a shape function representing the time variation of the sunspot number. This universal function also provides the timing of the solar maximum by the time from the slope maximum to the peak in the function as late 2023 or early 2024. A Hilbert transform gives similar results, which are caused by the dominance of the 11-yr sunspot-cycle period in a Fourier fit of the sunspot number.

W. Dean Pesnell↗
NASA NTRS2023

The 17 April 2021 Widespread Solar Energetic Particle Event

A complex and long-lasting solar eruption on 17 April 2021 produced a widespread solar energetic particle (SEP) event that was observed by five longitudinally well-separated observers in the inner heliosphere that covered distances to the Sun from 0.42 to 1 au: BepiColombo, Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, and near-Earth spacecraft. The event was the second widespread SEP event detected in solar cycle 25, and it produced relativistic electrons and protons. It was associated with a long-lasting solar hard X-ray flare that showed multiple hard X-ray peaks over a duration of one hour. The event was further accompanied by a medium-fast coronal mass ejection (CME) with a speed of 880 km s -1 that drove a shock, an extreme ultraviolet wave, and long-lasting and complex radio burst activity that showed four distinct type III burst groups over a period of 40 min. We aim to understand the reason for the wide spread of elevated SEP intensities in the inner heliosphere as well as identify the underlying source regions of the observed energetic electrons and protons. We applied a comprehensive multi-spacecraft analysis of remote-sensing observations and in situ measurements of the energetic particles and interplanetary context to attribute the SEP observations at the different locations to the various potential source regions at the Sun. We used an ENLIL simulation to characterize the complex interplanetary state and its role in the energetic particle transport. The magnetic connection between each spacecraft and the Sun was determined using ballistic backmapping in combination with potential field source surface extrapolations in the lower corona. Using also a reconstruction of the coronal shock front, we then determined the times when the shock establishes magnetic connections with the different observers. Radio observations were used to characterize the directivity of the four main injection episodes, which were then employed in a 2D SEP transport simulation to test the importance of these different injection episodes. A comprehensive timing analysis of the inferred solar injection times of the SEPs observed at each spacecraft suggests different source processes being important for the electron and proton events. Comparison among the characteristics and timing of the potential particle sources, such as the CME-driven shock or the flare, suggests a stronger shock contribution for the proton event and a more likely flare-related source for the electron event. In contrast to earlier studies on widespread SEP events, we find that in this event an important ingredient for the wide SEP spread was the wide longitudinal range of about 110 o covered by distinct SEP injections, which is also supported by our SEP transport modeling.

sun↗
NASA NTRS2024

Multispacecraft Observations of a Widespread Solar Energetic Particle Event on 2022 February 15–16

On 2022 February 15–16, multiple spacecraft measured one of the most intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed so far in Solar Cycle 25. This study provides an overview of interesting observations made by multiple spacecraft during this event. Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and BepiColombo were close to each other at 0.34–0.37 au (a radial separation of ∼0.03 au) as they were impacted by the flank of the associated coronal mass ejection (CME). At about 100° in the retrograde direction and 1.5 au away from the Sun, the radiation detector on board the Curiosity surface rover observed the largest ground-level enhancement on Mars since surface measurements began. At intermediate distances (0.7–1.0 au), the presence of stream interaction regions (SIRs) during the SEP arrival time provides additional complexities regarding the analysis of the distinct contributions of CME-driven versus SIR-driven events in observations by spacecraft such as Solar Orbiter and STEREO-A, and by near-Earth spacecraft like ACE, SOHO, and WIND. The proximity of PSP and BepiColombo also enables us to directly compare their measurements and perform cross-calibration for the energetic particle instruments on board the two spacecraft. Our analysis indicates that energetic proton measurements from BepiColombo and PSP are in reasonable agreement with each other to within a factor of ∼1.35. Finally, this study introduces the various ongoing efforts that will collectively improve our understanding of this impactful, widespread SEP event.

Solar energetic particles↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transient Science with LEAP

The LargE Area burst Polarimeter (LEAP) will investigate the nature of gamma-ray burst jets by making via the first high-fidelity polarization and spectroscopy measurements of the prompt gamma-ray emission from a large sample of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). LEAP is a proposed International Space Station (ISS) payload with a three-year mission designed to answer the following science questions. Are the jet magnetic fields randomly oriented or are their directions ordered? Are the jets dominated by matter or magnetic fields? Is the energy dissipated within the jet by internal shocks or by magnetic reconnection? Is the non-thermal emission mechanism synchrotron radiation, and what portion of the signal is of thermal photospheric origin? LEAP's baseline mission requires observation of at least 65 GRBs with a sensitivity defined by a minimum detectable polarization (MDP) of 30%. The current LEAP design is expected to trigger on approximately 400 GRBs, with about 86 of those having an MDP <30%. LEAP will enable rapid community follow-up to better understand GRBs and their environments. The LEAP design enables a broad range of secondary science while achieving its baseline mission. During overlap between LIGO's A+ configuration, approximately 3 joint GW/GRB detections per year are expected with LEAP. LEAP will also be sensitive to magnetar bursts, which have recently been associated with Fast Radio Bursts and will potentially measure polarization for bright individual bursts or stacked collections of bursts. LEAP will extend pulse flux and spin frequency histories for accreting pulsars with a sensitivity similar to Fermi GBM, and will potentially measure polarization for their brightest outbursts. The LEAP mission is scheduled during the declining phase of Solar Cycle 25, during which many intense flares are likely to occur; LEAP will make the most sensitive measurements to date of solar flare polarization. LEAP will open a new window into the nature of the most energetic phenomena in the universe with gamma-ray polarization.

N/A↗