Characterization of Snowfall Rates, Totals, and Snow-to-Liquid Ratios in Electrified Snowfall Events Identified by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper
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Sebastian S. Harkema↗
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Snowfall Rate Retrieval using NPP ATMS Passive Microwave Measurements
Passive microwave measurements at certain high frequencies are sensitive to the scattering effect of snow particles and can be utilized to retrieve snowfall properties. Some of the microwave sensors with snowfall sensitive channels are Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and Advance Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). ATMS is the follow‐on sensor to AMSU and MHS. Currently, an AMSU and MHS based land snowfall rate (SFR) product is running operationally at NOAA/NESDIS. Based on the AMSU/MHS SFR, an ATMS SFR algorithm has been developed recently. The algorithm performs retrieval in three steps: snowfall detection, retrieval of cloud properties, and estimation of snow particle terminal velocity and snowfall rate. The snowfall detection component utilizes principal component analysis and a logistic regression model. The model employs a combination of temperature and water vapor sounding channels to detect the scattering signal from falling snow and derive the probability of snowfall (Kongoli et al., 2014). In addition, a set of NWP model based filters is also employed to improve the accuracy of snowfall detection. Cloud properties are retrieved using an inversion method with an iteration algorithm and a two‐stream radiative transfer model (Yan et al., 2008). A method developed by Heymsfield and Westbrook (2010) is adopted to calculate snow particle terminal velocity. Finally, snowfall rate is computed by numerically solving a complex integral. The ATMS SFR product is validated against radar and gauge snowfall data and shows that the ATMS algorithm outperforms the AMSU/MHS SFR.
Meng, Huan↗
Snowfall Rate Retrieval Using Passive Microwave Measurements and Its Applications in Weather Forecast and Hydrology
(AMSU), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and Advance Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). ATMS is the follow‐on sensor to AMSU and MHS. Currently, an AMSU and MHS based land snowfall rate (SFR) product is running operationally at NOAA/NESDIS. Based on the AMSU/MHS SFR, an ATMS SFR algorithm has also been developed. The algorithm performs retrieval in three steps: snowfall detection, retrieval of cloud properties, and estimation of snow particle terminal velocity and snowfall rate. The snowfall detection component utilizes principal component analysis and a logistic regression model. It employs a combination of temperature and water vapor sounding channels to detect the scattering signal from falling snow and derives the probability of snowfall. Cloud properties are retrieved using an inversion method with an iteration algorithm and a two‐stream radiative transfer model. A method adopted to calculate snow particle terminal velocity. Finally, snowfall rate is computed by numerically solving a complex integral. The SFR products are being used mainly in two communities: hydrology and weather forecast. Global blended precipitation products traditionally do not include snowfall derived from satellites because such products were not available operationally in the past. The ATMS and AMSU/MHS SFR now provide the winter precipitation information for these blended precipitation products. Weather forecasters mainly rely on radar and station observations for snowfall forecast. The SFR products can fill in gaps where no conventional snowfall data are available to forecasters. The products can also be used to confirm radar and gauge snowfall data and increase forecasters' confidence in their prediction.
Meng, Huan↗
Changing Nature of High-Impact Snowfall Events in Eastern North America
Snowstorms cause substantial disruption in the eastern United States and Canada each winter. While reductions in annual snowfall are projected over most of this region due to anthropogenic global warming, daily snowfall extremes that have the greatest impact may not decrease in the same manner. We examine changes to two extreme snowfall metrics: the 95th percentile of daily snowfall (SF95, cm) and the number of events during which 10% of the mean annual snowfall is exceeded during a single day (TC10, events yr−1). We explore changes to these metrics in two ensembles of the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5), including four 0.22° ( ≈ 25 km) simulations driven by different coupled general circulation models as well as the higher-resolution (0.11°, ≈ 12 km) ClimEx ensemble, driven by 50 members of a large initial-condition ensemble of one global model. We find that while mean annual snowfall is projected to decrease over our domain, SF95 is projected to remain relatively constant, suggesting that the most extreme daily snowfalls currently observed are likely to occur even in a warmer future climate. The region of the largest TC10 values exhibits a northward shift, with a larger percentage of annual snowfall occurring during a few large events along the U.S.-Canada border. These projected changes to the nature of snowfall events may have important socioeconomic consequences in this densely populated region of North America.
heavy snow↗
NPP ATMS Snowfall Rate Product
Passive microwave measurements at certain high frequencies are sensitive to the scattering effect of snow particles and can be utilized to retrieve snowfall properties. Some of the microwave sensors with snowfall sensitive channels are Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and Advance Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). ATMS is the follow‐on sensor to AMSU and MHS. Currently, an AMSU and MHS based land snowfall rate (SFR) product is running operationally at NOAA/NESDIS. Based on the AMSU/MHS SFR, an ATMS SFR algorithm has been developed recently. The algorithm performs retrieval in three steps: snowfall detection, retrieval of cloud properties, and estimation of snow particle terminal velocity and snowfall rate. The snowfall detection component utilizes principal component analysis and a logistic regression model. The model employs a combination of temperature and water vapor sounding channels to detect the scattering signal from falling snow and derive the probability of snowfall (Kongoli et al., 2015). In addition, a set of NWP model based filters is also employed to improve the accuracy of snowfall detection. Cloud properties are retrieved using an inversion method with an iteration algorithm and a two‐stream radiative transfer model (Yan et al., 2008). A method developed by Heymsfield and Westbrook (2010) is adopted to calculate snow particle terminal velocity. Finally, snowfall rate is computed by numerically solving a complex integral. NCEP CMORPH analysis has shown that integration of ATMS SFR has improved the performance of CMORPH‐Snow. The ATMS SFR product is also being assessed at several NWS Weather Forecast Offices for its usefulness in weather forecast.
Forecasting↗
Remote Measurements of Snowfalls in Wakasa Bay, Japan with Airborne Millimeter- wave Imaging Radiometer and Cloud Radar
In this paper we explore the application of combined millimeter-wave radar and radiometry to remotely measure snowfall. During January-February of 2003, a field campaign was conducted with the NASA P-3 aircraft in Wakasa Bay, Japan for the validation of the AMSRE microwave radiometer on board the Aqua satellite. Among the suite of instruments-on board the P-3 aircraft were the Millimeter-wave Imaging Radiometer (MIR) from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and the 94 GHz Airborne Cloud Radar (ACR) which is co-owned and operated by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory/University of Massachusetts. MIR is a total power, across-track scanning radiometer that measures radiation at the frequencies of 89, 150, 183.3 +/- 1, 183.3 +/- 3, 183.3 +/-7, 220, and 340 GHz. The MIR has flown many successful missions since its completion in May 1992. ACR is a newer instrument and flew only a few times prior to the Wakasa Bay deployment. These two instruments which are particularly well suited for the detection of snowfall functioned normally during flights over snowfall and excellent data sets were acquired. On January 14, 28, and 29 flights were conducted over snowfall events. The MIR and ACR detected strong signals during periods of snowfall over ocean and land. Results from the analysis of these concurrent data sets show that (1) the scattering of millimeter-wave radiation as detected by the MIR is strongly correlated with ACR radar reflectivity profiles, and (2) the scattering is highly frequency-dependent, the higher the frequency the stronger the scattering. Additionally, the more transparent channels of the MIR (e.g., 89, 150, and 220 GHz) are found to display ambiguous signatures of snowfall because of their exposure to surface features. Thus, the snowfall detection and retrievals of snowfall parameters, such as the ice water path (IWP) and median mass diameter (D(me)) are best conducted at the more opaque channels near 183.3 GHz and 340 GHz. Retrievals of IWP and D(me) using the MIR measurements at 183.3 and 340 GHZ are currently in progress, and the results will be compared with those derived from the ACR reflectivity profiles. Implication from this comparison will be discussed.
Wang, J. R.↗
Role of Snowfall Versus Air Temperatures for Greenland Ice Sheet Melt-Albedo Feedbacks
The Greenland Ice Sheet is a leading contributor to global sea-level rise because climate warming has enhanced surface meltwater runoff. Melt rates are particularly sensitive to air temperatures due to feedbacks with albedo. The primary melt-albedo feedback, fluctuation of seasonal snowlines, however, is determined not only by melt but also by antecedent snowfall which could delay the onset of dark glacier ice exposure. Here we investigate the role of snowfall versus air temperatures on ice sheet melt-albedo feedbacks using satellite remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data. We find several lines of evidence that snowline fluctuations are driven primarily by air temperatures and that snowfall is a secondary control. First, standardized linear regressions indicate that the timing of glacier ice exposure is nearly twice as sensitive to air temperatures than antecedent snowfall. Second, in 74% of the ablation zone by area, winter snowfall rates are not significantly correlated with winter air temperatures. This relationship implies that ice sheet melt due to climate warming is unlikely to be compensated by higher snowfall rates in the ablation zone. Third, we find no significant change in snowfall rates in the ablation zone during our 1981–2021 study period. Our findings demonstrate that snowfall is unlikely to reduce future ice sheet melt and that ice sheet meltwater runoff should be accurately predicted by air temperatures. Although given the importance of melt-albedo feedbacks, ice sheet models that parameterize albedo or are coupled with regional climate models are likely to provide the most accurate projections of mass loss.
J. C. Ryan↗
Snowfall in the Northern Great Lakes: Lessons Learned from a Multisensor Observatory
A multisensor snowfall observational suite has been deployed at the Marquette, Michigan, National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (KMQT) since 2014. Micro Rain Radar (MRR; profiling radar), Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP; snow particle imager), and ancillary ground-based meteorological observations illustrate the unique capabilities of these combined instruments to document radar and concomitant microphysical properties associated with northern Great Lakes snowfall regimes. Lake-effect, lake-orographic, and transition event case studies are presented that illustrate the variety of snowfall events that occur at KMQT. Case studies and multiyear analyses reveal the ubiquity of snowfall produced by shallow events. These shallow snowfall features and their distinctive microphysical fingerprints are often difficult to discern with conventional remote sensing instruments, thus highlighting the scientific and potential operational value of MRR and PIP observations. The importance of near-surface lake-orographic snowfall enhancement processes in extreme snowfall events and regime-dependent snow particle microphysical variability controlled by regime and environmental factors are also highlighted.
Lake effects↗
Quantitative Investigation of Radiometric Interactions between Snowfall, Snow Cover, and Cloud Liquid Water over Land
Falling snow alters its own microwave signatures when it begins to accumulate on the ground, making retrieval of snowfall challenging. This paper investigates the effects of snow-cover depth and cloud liquid water content on microwave signatures of terrestrial snowfall using reanalysis data and multi-annual observations by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite with particular emphasis on the 89 and 166 GHz channels. It is found that over shallow snow cover (snow water equivalent (SWE) ≤100 kg/sq. m) and low values of cloud liquid water path (LWP 100–150 g/sq. m), the scattering of light snowfall (intensities ≤0.5 mm/ h) is detectable only at frequency 166 GHz, while for higher snowfall rates, the signal can also be detected at 89 GHz. However, when SWE exceeds 200 kg/sq. m and the LWP is greater than 100–150 g/sq. m, the emission from the increased liquid water content in snowing clouds becomes the only surrogate microwave signal of snowfall that is stronger at frequency 89 than 166 GHz. The results also reveal that over high latitudes above 60°N where the SWE is greater than 200 kg/sq. m and LWP is lower than 100–150 g/sq. m, the snowfall microwave signal could not be detected with GPM without considering a priori data about SWE and LWP. Our findings provide quantitative insights for improving retrieval of snowfall in particular over snow-covered terrain.
Zeinab Takbiri↗
166 GHZ Ice Scattering Signal in Snowfall Events Over Ocean
Snowfall retrieval algorithms for spaceborne passive microwave (PMW) sensors have been developed and refined in recent years, but many complicating issues still affect their accuracy and reliability. Previous work showed that the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission Goddard PROFiling (GPROF) algorithm snowfall retrieval performance strongly depends on the snowfall type. In particular, PMW-based detection of shallow cumuliform snowfall (SCS), which accounts for 36%-70% of global snowfall frequency, can be very challenging. The snowfall scattering signal can be contaminated by the background surface or supercooled cloud liquid water emission. A scattering index (SI) approach that exploits the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) dual-polarization 166 GHz channels is developed to analyze its behavior in presence of SCS over ocean. Case studies show that, compared to the SI at 89 GHz, it can isolate the SCS snowfall scattering signal in extremely dry conditions. Some issues are still observed in presence of supercooled liquid water.
Lisa Milani↗
Temperature and Snowfall in Western Queen Maud Land Increasing Faster than Climate Model Projections
East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) mass balance is largely driven by snowfall. Recently, increased snowfall in Queen Maud Land led to years of EAIS mass gain. It is difficult to determine whether these years of enhanced snowfall are anomalous or part of a longer-term trend, reducing our ability to assess the mitigating impact of snowfall on sea level rise. We determine that the recent snowfall increases in western Queen Maud Land (QML) are part of a long-term trend (+5.2 +/- 3.7% decade(exp -1)) and are unprecedented over the past two millennia. Warming between 1998 and 2016 is significant and rapid (+1.1 +/- 0.7 C decade(exp -1)). Using these observations, we determine that the current accumulation and temperature increases in QML from an ensemble of global climate simulations are too low, which suggests that projections of the QML contribution to sea level rise are potentially overestimated with a reduced mitigating impact of enhanced snowfall in a warming world.
WAIS↗
Evaluation of Rainfall-Snowfall Separation Performance in Remote Sensing Datasets
The first step to accurately measure global snowfall is to separate rainfall from snowfall correctly (i.e., precipitation phase discrimination). This study first evaluates the phase discrimination performance in four remote sensing datasets, including observations from ground radar, spaceborne radars, and spaceborne radiometer, relative to ground observations. Results show that the snowfall discrimination accuracy varies greatly among these datasets ranging from 42% to 96%, dependent on whether and how the temperature information are considered. For example, over half of the snowfall from the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) spaceborne radar is actually rainfall at the surface since it detects snowfall in the air without considering the temperature information close to the surface. Second, we evaluate the discrimination performance using the temperature information from four reanalysis datasets. It is found that MERRA2 temperature close to the surface is colder than the other three datasets, leading to more rainfall being misclassified as snowfall.
Yalei You↗
Vulnerability of Passive Microwave Snowfall Retrievals to Physical Properties of Snowpack: A Perspective from Dense Media Radiative Transfer Theory
The uncertainty of passive microwave retrievals of snowfall is notoriously high where the high-frequency surface emissivity is significantly reduced and varies markedly in response to changes of snowpack physical properties. Using the dense media radiative transfer theory, this article studies the potential effects of terrestrial snow-cover depth, density, and6grain size on high-frequency channels 89 and 166 GHz of the radiometer onboard the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite, which are commonly used to capture the snowfall scattering signals. Integrating the inference across all feasible grain sizes, ranges of snowpack density and depth are identified over which the snowfall scattering signatures can be time varying and potentially obscured. Using 10 years of reanalysis data, the seasonal vulnerability of snowfall retrievals to changes of snowpack emissivity in the Northern Hemisphere is mapped in a probabilistic sense and connections are made with uncertainties of the GPM passive microwave snowfall retrievals. It is found that among different snow classes, relatively light Arctic tundra snow in fall, with a density below 260kg m−3, and shallow prairie snow during the winter, with a depth of less than 40cm, can reduce the surface emissivity and obscure the snowfall passive microwave signatures. It is demonstrated that, during the winter, the highly vulnerable areas are over Kazakhstan, and Mongolia with taiga and prairie snow. In the fall, these areas are largely over tundra and taiga snow in north of Russia and the Arctic Archipelagos as well as prairies in Canada and the Great Plains in the United States.
Reyhaneh Rahimi↗
Coupled Model Simulation of Snowfall Events Over the Black Hills
Although many long-term simulations of snow accumulation and oblation have been made using stand-alone land surface models and surface models coupled with GCMs, less research has focused on short-term event simulations. Actually, accurate event simulations of snow-related processes are the basis for successful long-term simulation. Three advantages of event simulations of snowfall and snow melting are availability of: (1) intensive observation data from field experiments for validation; (2) more physically-realistic precipitation schemes for use in atmospheric models to simulate snowfall; and (3) a more detailed analysis of the snow melting processes. In addition to the complexities of snow related processes themselves, terrain-induced effects on snowfall/snow melting make simulations of snow events more difficult. Climatological observations indicate that terrain features such as the Black Hills of South Dakota and Wyoming can exert important effects on snow accumulation and snow oblation processes. One of the primary effects is that the orography causes forced uplift of airflow and causes atmospheric waves to form both upwind and downwind of it. Airflow often splits around the obstacle, converging on the lee side. This convergence may lead to precipitation enhancement. It also provides an elevated heat and moisture source that enhances atmospheric instability. During the period of April 5-May 5, 1999, the Upper Missouri River Basin Pilot Project (UMRBPP) made intensive observations on precipitation events occurring in the Black Hills. Two moderate snowfall events were captured during the period. The resulting high temporal and spatial resolution data provides opportunities to investigate terrain effects on snowfall amount, distribution, and melting. Successful simulation of snowfall amount, distribution, and evolution using atmospheric models is important to subsequent modeling of snow melting using snow sub-models in land surface schemes. In this paper, a coupled model system, consisting of an atmosphere model (ARPS) and a land-surface model (revised NCAR LSM), is used to simulate one of these UMRBPP cases.
Wang, Jianzhong↗
A Physical Model to Estimate Snowfall over Land using AMSU-B Observations
In this study, we present an improved physical model to retrieve snowfall rate over land using brightness temperature observations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit-B (AMSU-B) at 89 GHz, 150 GHz, 183.3 +/- 1 GHz, 183.3 +/- 3 GHz, and 183.3 +/- 7 GHz. The retrieval model is applied to the New England blizzard of March 5, 2001 which deposited about 75 cm of snow over much of Vermont, New Hampshire, and northern New York. In this improved physical model, prior retrieval assumptions about snowflake shape, particle size distributions, environmental conditions, and optimization methodology have been updated. Here, single scattering parameters for snow particles are calculated with the Discrete-Dipole Approximation (DDA) method instead of assuming spherical shapes. Five different snow particle models (hexagonal columns, hexagonal plates, and three different kinds of aggregates) are considered. Snow particle size distributions are assumed to vary with air temperature and to follow aircraft measurements described by previous studies. Brightness temperatures at AMSU-B frequencies for the New England blizzard are calculated using these DDA calculated single scattering parameters and particle size distributions. The vertical profiles of pressure, temperature, relative humidity and hydrometeors are provided by MM5 model simulations. These profiles are treated as the a priori data base in the Bayesian retrieval algorithm. In algorithm applications to the blizzard data, calculated brightness temperatures associated with selected database profiles agree with AMSU-B observations to within about +/- 5 K at all five frequencies. Retrieved snowfall rates compare favorably with the near-concurrent National Weather Service (NWS) radar reflectivity measurements. The relationships between the NWS radar measured reflectivities Z(sub e) and retrieved snowfall rate R for a given snow particle model are derived by a histogram matching technique. All of these Z(sub e)-R relationships fall in the range of previously established Z(sub e)-R relationships for snowfall. This suggests that the current physical model developed in this study can reliably estimate the snowfall rate over land using the AMSU-B measured brightness temperatures.
Kim, Min-Jeong↗
Assessment of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for Snowfall Retrieval in High Latitudes Using CloudSat and Machine Learning
Precipitation retrieval is a challenging topic, especially in high latitudes (HL), and current precipitation products face ample challenges over these regions. This study investigates the potential of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for snowfall retrieval in HL using CloudSat radar information and machine learning (ML). With all the known limitations, AVHRR observations should be considered for HL snowfall retrieval because 1) AVHRR data have been continuously collected for about four decades on multiple platforms with global coverage, and similar observations will likely continue in the future; 2) current passive microwave satellite precipitation products have several issues over snow and ice surfaces; and 3) good coincident observations between AVHRR and CloudSat are available for training ML algorithms. Using ML, snowfall rate was retrieved from AVHRR’s brightness temperature and cloud probability, as well as auxiliary information provided by numerical reanalysis. The results indicate that the ML-based retrieval algorithm is capable of detection and estimation of snowfall with comparable or better statistical scores than those obtained from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and two passive microwave sensors contributing to the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission constellation. The outcomes also suggest that AVHRR-based snowfall retrievals are spatially and temporally reasonable and can be considered as a quantitatively useful input to the merged precipitation products that require frequent sampling or long-term records.
Mohammad Reza↗
On the Effects of Cloud Water Content on Passive Microwave Snowfall Retrievals
The Bayesian passive microwave retrievals of snowfall often rely on mathematical matching of the observed vectors of brightness temperature with an a priori database of precipitation profiles and their corresponding brightness temperatures. Mathematical proximity does not necessarily lead to consistent retrievals due to limited information content of passive microwave observations. This paper defines imposter (genuine) vectors of brightness temperature as those that are mathematically close but physically inconsistent (consistent) and characterizes them through the Silhouette Coefficient (SC) analysis. The Neyman–Pearson (NP) hypothesis testing is used to separate the imposter and genuine brightness temperatures based on their associated values of cloud ice (IWP) and liquid water path (LWP), given by coincidences of CloudSat Profiling Radar (CPR) and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI). The study determines thresholds for IWP and LWP that allow optimal identification of imposter brightness temperatures of non-snowing and snowing clouds, which can mislead the passive microwave retrieval algorithms to falsely detect or miss the snowfall events. It is demonstrated that emission signal of supercooled liquid water in snowing clouds can lead to improved passive microwave retrieval of snowfall and conditioning the retrievals to the cloud IWP and LWP can result in marginal correction of the snowfall detection probability; however, reduce the probability of false alarm by 6%–8% over sea ice and open oceans.
Snowfall↗
Retrieval of Normalized Gamma Size Distribution Parameters Using Precipitation Imaging Package (Pip) Snowfall Observations During Ice-Pop 2018
Parameters of the normalized gamma particle size distribution (PSD) have been retrieved from the Precipitation Image Package (PIP) snowfall observations collected during the International Collaborative Experiment - PyeongChang Olympics and Paralympic (ICE-POP 2018). Two of the gamma PSD parameters, the mass weighted particle diameter (Dmass) and the normalized intercept parameter NW, have median values of 1.15-1.31 mm and 2.84-3.04 log(mm-1 m-3), respectively. This range arises from the choice of the relationship between the maximum versus equivalent diameter, Dmx-Deq, and the relationship between the Reynolds and Best numbers, Re-X. Normalization of snow water equivalent rate (SWER) and ice water content (W) by NW reduces the range in NW resulting in well fitted power law relationship, between SWER/NW and Dmass and between W/NW and Dmass. The bulk descriptors of snowfall are calculated from PIP observations and from the gamma PSD with values of the shape parameter (μ) ranging from -2 to 10. NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, which adopted the normalized gamma PSD, assumes μ = 2 and μ = 3 in its two separate algorithms. The mean fractional bias (MFB) of the snowfall parameters changes with μ, where the functional dependence on μ depends on the specific snowfall parameter of interest. The MFB of the total concentration was underestimated by 0.23-0.34 when μ = 2 and by 0.29-0.40 when μ = 3, while the MFB of SWER had a much narrower range (-0.03 to 0.04) for the same μ values.
Snowfall↗