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What can simulation test beds teach us about social science? Results of the ground truth program

The ground truth program used simulations as test beds for social science research methods. The simulations had known ground truth and were capable of producing large amounts of data. This allowed research teams to run experiments and ask questions of these simulations similar to social scientists studying real-world systems, and enabled robust evaluation of their causal inference, prediction, and prescription capabilities. We tested three hypotheses about research effectiveness using data from the ground truth program, specifically looking at the influence of complexity, causal understanding, and data collection on performance. We found some evidence that system complexity and causal understanding influenced research performance, but no evidence that data availability contributed. The ground truth program may be the first robust coupling of simulation test beds with an experimental framework capable of teasing out factors that determine the success of social science research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A high-fidelity building performance simulation test bed for the development and evaluation of advanced controls

We present an open-source building performance simulation test bed, the Advanced Controls Test Bed (ACTB), that interfaces high-fidelity Spawn of EnergyPlus building models, with advanced controllers implemented in Python. Additionally, the ACTB leverages the Building Optimization Testing and Alfalfa platforms for managing simulations, providing an external clock, a representational state transfer (REST) application programming interface (API), and key performance indicators for evaluating the effectiveness of control strategies. The REST API allows the development of external controllers programmed in languages such as Python, which provides flexibility and a rich choice of scientific libraries for designing control sequences. We present three test cases based on the U.S. Department of Energy's Reference Small Office Building to demonstrate the ACTB's capabilities: (a) rule-based controls compliant with ASHRAE Guideline 36 control sequences; (b) an economic model predictive control implemented using do-mpc; and (c) a deep Q-network reinforcement learning agent implemented using OpenAI Gym.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The Ground Truth Program: Simulations as Test Beds for Social Science Research Methods.

Social systems are uniquely complex and difficult to study, but understanding them is vital to solving the world’s problems. The Ground Truth program developed a new way of testing the research methods that attempt to understand and leverage the Human Domain and its associated complexities. The program developed simulations of social systems as virtual world test beds. Not only were these simulations able to produce data on future states of the system under various circumstances and scenarios, but their causal ground truth was also explicitly known. Research teams studied these virtual worlds, facilitating deep validation of causal inference, prediction, and prescription methods. The Ground Truth program model provides a way to test and validate research methods to an extent previously impossible, and to study the intricacies and interactions of different components of research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Using Qualified On-Site Nuclear Power Plant Simulators in Human Factors Validations of Control Room Upgrades

Existing commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) are valuable assets in the infrastructure portfolio of the United States (U.S.) because they safely and reliably generate about 1/5th of all the electricity used. The instrumentation and control (I&C) systems in commercial NPPs are the ‘eyes and ears' of the operator, allowing operators to maintain situation awareness, thereby allowing the plant to operate safely and efficiently for all phases of operation. Because the I&C systems in NPPs are still mostly based on analog technologies, which are reliable but not especially cost-effective, upgrading the existing I&C in com-mercial NPPs to new digital I&C is very important. Furthermore, simulators and simulation are critical human factors engineering tools for this I&C modernization work. NPP control room simulators are essential test beds to simulate normal, abnormal, and emergency operations that allow human factors researchers to safely and realistically evaluate early design phase prototypes of the upgraded digital I&C, and validate final as-built digital I&C systems that have been modernized deployed in NPPs. This paper describes research performed using qualified on-site NPP simulators to perform human factors validations of digital I&C control room upgrades.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Extension of Virtual Test Bed Advanced Modeling and Simulation Capabilities for Fusion Energy

The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) was established to accelerate the deployment of novel reactor concepts. This is achieved by providing physical and virtual spaces for building and testing reactor experiments. The Virtual Test Bed (VTB) represents the virtual counterpart to the physical test beds. It is a collaboration with the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program with the mission to accelerate the deployment of advanced reactors by facilitating the adoption of advanced modeling and simulation (M&S) tools developed by the DOE. This mission has been carried out by the VTB since 2020 by hosting and featuring dozens of advanced fission nuclear reactor models developed by national laboratories and academia. The charter of the NRIC’s definition of advanced reactors also includes fusion nuclear reactors. As the tools developed by the NEAMS program are increasingly used for modeling fusion energy devices, there is an increasing need to host fusion reactor models on the VTB repository. The VTB will be extended in 2024 to support fusion energy modeling and simulation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development of Laboratory Testbeds Simulating Real-World Greenhouse Gas Emissions [Slides]

In this presentation, I discussed the development of laboratory test beds that simulate field greenhouse gas emissions. Field experiments are used to test new landscape management practices that could reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, field experiments are very expensive and time consuming. Laboratory experiments are generally more cost efficient and timesaving. There are methods that can be used to make these laboratory tests more closely replicate natural systems for the improvement of agricultural lands used in biofuel and food production. The goal of this project is to develop a laboratory testbed that will mimic field greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this goal, we used soil cores taken from agricultural and marginal lands, then attached fiberglass wicks to improve the drainage system in the core to simulate a more natural hydraulic system. The combination of using native soils and fiberglass wicks should demonstrate similar greenhouse gas emissions between the lab and the field. Our preliminary results suggest that the carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide flux from the agricultural land site were comparable to the greenhouse soil cores equipped with the drainage wicks. The data suggests that laboratory testbeds can be used to mimic field greenhouse gas emissions if parameters, such as soil water content are in a set range.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using an Advanced Distribution Management System Test Bed to Evaluate the Impact of Model Quality on Volt/VAR Optimization: Preprint

In this paper, we present a test bed for evaluating existing and future advanced distribution management system (ADMS) applications in a realistic laboratory setting, including other utility management systems and field equipment. We present an example of using it to evaluate the impact of the ADMS network model quality on a Volt/VAR optimization (VVO) application. The test bed integrates a commercial ADMS with a real-time simulation model of a utility distribution feeder. Representative power and controller hardware are integrated through hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) techniques. The performance of the ADMS VVO application is also evaluated for different levels of measurement density. Initial results indicate that a higher model quality achieves the highest possible energy savings while avoiding voltage violations, whereas a lower model quality results in increased energy savings but at the expense of more voltage violations.

ADMS↗

Holistic Microstructure Control Strategies in Photopolymerization‐Induced Phase Separation of Acrylate Systems

Open porous materials, known for their large surface area and interconnected structures, are essential in various applications, including batteries, ion exchange, catalysis, filtration, and electronic waste recycling. A critical aspect of the functionality of porous membranes is the precise control of pore size and morphology. Photopolymerization-induced phase separation (photo-PIPS) offers a convenient and versatile methods for creating porous structures. However, controlling the porous morphology remains challenging due to the complex interplay between thermodynamics, polymerization kinetics, and monomer structures, which makes it difficult to establish the relationship between processing conditions and resulting morphology in photo-PIPS. Herein, a physics-based phase-field model capable of generating and characterizing the microstructures of porous materials based on both average and localized features is developed. Using the phase-field simulations as test bed, the effects of polarity, light intensity, and curing temperature, as well as the previously unexplored roles of chain transfer agents and substrates, on the morphology of the resulting porous microstructure are investigated. Experiments are performed to verify the results predicted by the simulations. This work lays out a comprehensive guide for designing PIPS-derived porous microstructures and offers practical engineering strategies for tailoring microstructure-level topology and size of pores for application-specific needs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Neural MUSE Analysis

Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) created data as part of the MUSE (Multi-Agency Urban Search Experiment Detector and Algorithm Test Bed) project simulating illicit nuclear materials located in various buildings along a road. In the simulation, a truck containing a radiation detector drives down the road gathering listmode data (counting the and energy of incident gamma radiation). Building materials, source shielding, driving speed, truck direction, truck location on the road, source type, and source placement are all varied between runs of the data set. This data was created using deterministic neutron transport and Monte Carlo methods through a combination of SCALE, MAVRIC, MCNP, and GADRAS. As part of a follow-on NA-22 project, two Kaggle competitions were created to determine the best algorithms for finding and identifying gamma sources in this simulated urban environment. The winning algorithm was neural network-based and had a test accuracy of 76.4% accuracy for source identification. This work seeks to build upon this work and improve the results through the application of novel machine learning techniques. As a first step, the data was classified by a simple Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) To accomplish this, the data was first preprocessed into “waterfall plots.” These plots are composed of energy vs count plots that are stacked vertically to show progression in time. The horizontal axis indicating the particle energy incorporated user defined bin spacing with options for in linear-, logarithmic-, square root-, and user-spaced bins. The z or color dimension showed the number of counts corresponding the energy-time combination. This data was then used to generate more data, by generating a local estimate of the mean of the distribution for a bin and then randomly re-sampling that bin from a Poisson distribution. Once all of this data was generated, it was fed into a well-known CNN architecture, ResNet50. The output layer of this model was removed and replaced with layers corresponding to the shape desired isotope outputs. The provided training data was used to train the classifier and the remaining testing data was used to evaluate the model. Results are soon to be forthcoming.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Autonomous Controls For Reactor Technologies (acorn)

ACORN (Autonomous Controls fOr Reactor techNologies) software utilizes data, obtained from an experimental test bed and/or simulation, to implement a control command for microreactor operation. Command examples include a change to the temperature profile, power profiles, heat fluxes, etc. The control command recommended by the code is derived based on future predicted states of a microreactor, allowing proactive optimal and autonomous microreactor operation. The software is written in Python languages. The current software supports autonomous temperature controls of heat pipe simulator and autonomous heat flux controls of a 37 heat pipe non-nuclear testbed simulator (or its surrogate models).

Lin, Linyu [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho↗

Dynamic Building Load Control to Facilitate High Penetration of Solar Photovoltaic Generation (Final Technical Report)

Solar photovoltaic (PV) resources are the most common form of distributed generation in residential and commercial customer premises within electric distribution networks. A higher penetration of PV generation in distribution circuits will impose challenges on maintaining service voltages within the range of industry standards, power quality, and power flow. Buildings consume 74% of the electricity produced in the United States, and a significant portion of the building load is dispatchable, making them responsive to electrical grid needs. Oak Ridge National Laboratory—in collaboration with Southern Company; the University of Tennessee, Knoxville; and the Georgia Institute of Technology—is examining the PV integration issues in distribution-level electrical grids and developing integrated demand-side control and communication systems to enable responsive loads. The proposed responsive loads mechanism performs renewable generation following to increase the penetration of solar PV within each feeder. The specific objectives of this project are to (1) examine distribution-level PV integration scenarios to understand requirements, (2) undertake an end-to-end simulation-based design of a distributed control strategy of loads geographically near the PV generation asset to minimize the effect on the distribution feeder, (3) deploy and demonstrate the control technology developed in partnership with utilities, and (4) perform a scalability analysis at the utility scale. This 3-year integrated project aims to develop, demonstrate, and validate demand-side control technology to enable increased the penetration of renewables while mitigating challenges that arise due to their intermittency. Activities in Budget Period (BP) 1 focused on a literature review and the formal design of a control system for integrating local distribution with generation and loads. The team used modeling and simulation to evaluate the impact of varying buildings loads, variable PV generation, and power flow dynamics on the distribution circuit. The dynamic models developed in BP 1 were used in BP 2 to develop a model-based control design and a test bed. The test bed has enabled the simulation-based testing and comparison of different control designs and formulations applied to different configurations of the distribution grid, PVs, and building loads. The control approaches developed in BP 2 were implemented in BP 3 in the form of hardware deployed at the Central Baptist Church (CBC) in Knoxville, Tennessee, for testing and evaluation. The outcome of this project was the development and demonstration of open-source, low-cost, low-touch sensing and control retrofits to distributed PV generation and building loads that, in a coordinated fashion, provide the load-shaping response needed to integrate high levels of renewable penetration. This research addresses the target metrics by dynamically controlling a load with solar generation variability to minimize the extent of two-way power flow, enhance reliability, facilitate high PV penetration (>100% of peak load in a line segment), and generate scalable software and hardware solutions adaptable to any penetration levels. The research and development activities are focused and designed to be impactful within the relevant 2020 targets time frame.An accurate open-source integration simulation framework for end-to-end control design was developed and deployed at the CBC facility for testing and evaluation. This final report provides a detailed review of the technical results achieved during this 3-year integrated project. A novel spectral analysis of PV data is demonstrated to derive the requirements of the control design. A detailed simulation-based analysis of PV integration at increasing penetration levels is presented using 1 year of PV data to demonstrate the impact on the distribution circuits. Two different control strategies were developed and demonstrated via simulation to track variable PV generation with adaptive load dispatch. The report concludes with a summary of accomplishments and recommendations for a path forward.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Coupled Multiphysics Primary Loop Simulations of the Mk1-FHR in the Virtual Test Bed

To support advanced reactor demonstrations, the Virtual Test Bed (VTB) [1] repository hosts a wide range of challenge problems for showcasing modeling and simulation capabil- ities in support of advanced reactor demonstrations. This document presents a coupled multiphysics model of the Mark 1 pebble-bed fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (PB-FHR). The analysis leverages NEAMS tools (Griffin [2], SAM [3], Pronghorn [4], and the MOOSE [5] heat con- duction module) for core neutronics, thermal hydraulics of the core and primary loop, and multiscale fuel performance simulations. The analysis was entirely created by coupling standalone simulations of the reactor that were previously available on the VTB. All input files and documentation de- veloped for this example are available on the VTB website: mooseframework.inl.gov/ virtual_test_bed/ . This model was featured in the National Reactor Innovation Cen- ter Tech Talk presented in December 2021.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Variational quantum simulation of the critical Ising model with symmetry averaging

Here we investigate the use of deep multiscale entanglement renormalization ansatz (DMERA) circuits as a variational ansatz. We use the exactly solvable one-dimensional critical transverse-field Ising model as a test bed. Numerically exact simulation of the quantum circuit ansatz can in this case be carried out to hundreds of qubits by exploiting efficient classical algorithms for simulating matchgate circuits. We find that, for this system, the DMERA strongly outperforms a standard quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA)–style ansatz, and that a major source of systematic error in correlation functions approximated using the DMERA is the breaking of the translational and Kramers-Wannier symmetries of the transverse-field Ising model. We are able to reduce this error by up to four orders of magnitude by symmetry averaging, without incurring additional cost in qubits or circuit depth. Here, we propose that this technique for mitigating systematic error could be applied to noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) simulations of physical systems with other symmetries.

1-dimensional spin chains↗

A Cybersecurity Testbed for Smart Buildings

Smart buildings are equipped with a plethora of cyber-physical systems, such as Internet of Things (IoT) devices and building automation systems. These devices, especially in commercial buildings, use legacy communications and hardware that were not designed with cybersecurity in mind. With increasing cyber threats in recent years, smart buildings have become an increasing target for attacks, but not enough published data are available from these incidents to study or replicate the scenarios to defend buildings. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy-funded project focusing on developing the Building Intelligence with Layered Defense Using Security-Constrained Optimization and Security Risk Detection (BUILD-SOS) platform, we developed a cybersecurity test bed for smart buildings. This test bed includes a building simulation tool, virtual devices, emulated operational technology networks, and remote hardware-in-the-loop. Using this test bed, we performed different cyberattacks on the smart building model and collected both physical building data, to understand the impacts on the building, and network data, to aid in separating mechanical faults from cyberattacks during the detection. This test bed is a significant tool in protecting smart buildings from cyberattacks because it can aid in both cybersecurity analysis and the evaluation of other cyberattack detection tools by testing the tools in a secure environment without impacting the building operations.

cyber-physical systems↗

A Cybersecurity Testbed for Smart Buildings

Smart buildings are equipped with a plethora of cyber-physical systems, such as Internet of Things (IoT) devices and building automation systems. These devices, especially in commercial buildings, use legacy communications and hardware that were not designed with cybersecurity in mind. With increasing cyber threats in recent years, smart buildings have become an increasing target for attacks, but not enough published data are available from these incidents to study or replicate the scenarios to defend buildings. As part of the U.S. Department of Energy-funded project focusing on developing the Building Intelligence with Layered Defense Using Security-Constrained Optimization and Security Risk Detection (BUILD-SOS) platform, we developed a cybersecurity test bed for smart buildings. This test bed includes a building simulation tool, virtual devices, emulated operational technology networks, and remote hardware-in-the-loop. Using this test bed, we performed different cyberattacks on the smart building model and collected both physical building data, to understand the impacts on the building, and network data, to aid in separating mechanical faults from cyberattacks during the detection. This test bed is a significant tool in protecting smart buildings from cyberattacks because they can aid in both cybersecurity analysis and the evaluation of cyberattack detection tools by testing the tools in a secure environment without impacting the building operations.

alfalfa↗

Status of New Models Hosted on the Virtual Test Bed (VTB) in 2024

The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) mission is to support deployment of novel reactor concepts. This is achieved by providing physical and virtual spaces for building and testing various components, systems, and complete pilot plants. The Virtual Test Bed (VTB) represents the virtual counterpart to the physical test bed. It is in development in collaboration with the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. The mission of the VTB is to accelerate the deployment and licensing of advanced reactors by leveraging state-of-the-art modeling and simulation (M&S) tools developed by the DOE NEAMS program. This is accomplished by three primary means: (1) openly hosting simulations that showcase analysis capabilities, (2) continuously testing the models hosted against code updates to avoid deprecation, and (3) filling key M&S gaps that are relevant for the physical NRIC test beds. The VTB repository consists of two sub-entities: 1. A documentation website detailing the models (https://mooseframework.inl.gov/virtual_test_bed). 2. A GitHub repository that hosts the corresponding files (https://github.com/idaholab/virtual_test_bed). Previous documentation on the models hosted in the VTB can be found in [1,2,3,4]. These references also include additional background information on the various NEAMS codes showcased in the VTB (which is omitted here for brevity). This paper primarily provides a status update of the most recent additions to the repository.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗