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DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗

DOE OSTI2026

Exploring Wildfire & Energy data toward State Prioritization Index (WESPI)

Energy infrastructure can both induce and suffer risks from wildfires ranging from direct damage to energy assets such as substations and power lines to Public Safety Power Shutoffs. Recent wildfire events underscore the need for data-driven approaches that help states and utilities proactively plan for wildfire risk. Existing national tools such as Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)’s National Risk Index (NRI) are valuable for community hazard planning. However, they are less suited for energy infrastructure, as they emphasize population and building exposure rather than system vulnerabilities. In this paper, we explore relationships between energy and wildfire data and present a Wildfire-Energy State Prioritization Index (WESPI). Our methodology combines data from the US Forest Service’s Fire Simulation (FSIM) dataset with energy resilience metrics, historical fire incidents, and geospatial data on transmission lines and fire stations. Correlation analyses suggest that FSIM burn probability is more strongly associated with power outage metrics (ρ = 0.32) than NRI wildfire frequency, and counties with a greater density of fire stations experience more frequent, but less intense wildfires. We further leverage data for burn probability, transmission line density, and fire station density to develop a Wildfire-Energy State Prioritization Index (WESPI) to highlight counties where wildfire hazard, infrastructure exposure, and limited suppression capacity converge. The index provides a consistent, scalable framework for state energy offices and utilities to screen counties for vegetation management, optimization of outage management system deployment, and to inform wildfire mitigation plans.

Critical infrastructure↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating FRI3D for Cost Savings in Fire Hazard Analysis at DOE Sites

A fire hazard analysis, required for many U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) facilities, is a complex, cumbersome, and costly process. Fire hazard analyses may be viewed as a checkbox, but ideally and in spirit with the DOE-STD-1066, the fire hazard analysis (FHA) should be a part of the workflow and used to help in modifications, maintenance, and improving operational safety. With current FHA development processes, it is both time and cost prohibitive for true integration. A tool called Fire Risk Investigation in 3D or FRI3D was developed under the DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability program to simplify and automate many aspects of a fire probabilistic risk analysis for existing nuclear power plants. The FRI3D tool automates fire scenarios by combining approved fire simulation codes, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission fire calculations methods, 3D modeling and visualization, and probabilistic risk analysis models into a single workflow supported with a user interface. FRI3D was initially designed for used in combination with a PRA, this case study, evaluated using FRI3D for a plant modification, determined the benefits that detailed fire modeling can have for U.S. Department of Energy facilities with or without a PRA model. It also looked at what tasks from DOE requirements could be reduced using the tool and what is needed to integrate fire hazard analysis into site workflow.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wildfire towers drive firebrand lofting: insights from coupled fire-atmosphere model simulations

Wildfire behavior is shaped by complex fire dynamics, with firebrands playing a critical role in spot fire ignition and fire spread. While previous studies have explored firebrand generation and transport, the specific role of towers and troughs from wildland fires in the lofting of firebrands remains unquantified. This study addresses that gap by using physics-based coupled fire-atmosphere model simulations to examine how wildfire towers (updrafts) and troughs (downdrafts) influence firebrand lofting. Our results show that the majority of firebrands (78.85%) are lofted from towers, where strong updrafts drive long-range transport. In contrast, only 21.15% of firebrands are lofted within troughs, where downdrafts cause most firebrands to fall near the fireline. We also find that firebrand size significantly influences lofting behavior, with smaller particles (1 mm radius) exhibiting the strongest correlation with updraft intensity. These findings highlight the dominant role of wildfire towers in promoting long-distance firebrand dispersal—an essential factor in rapid wildfire growth and wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire risks. By quantifying the relationship between firebrand lofting and fire-induced atmospheric features, this study provides critical insights to improve spot fire modeling, support mitigation planning, and enhance firefighter and WUI community safety in spot fire-prone regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Glovebox Fires Phase 1: Simulations of Open Burner Experiments

Understanding the duration of a fire required to breach a glovebox via glove ports and/or windows within a facility is important in developing mitigation strategies for safety. To facilitate this understanding, both simulation and experiments are utilized. The approach is to first validate the Computation Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code, Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), with experimental data collected by New Mexico Tech (NMT) and then perform simulations of full-scale rooms containing gloveboxes to assess numerous scenarios which would otherwise be cost-prohibitive experimentally. This report provides comparison to first-phase experiments involving a fire without a glovebox. A subsequent report will provide comparison to experiments involving a glovebox. The results indicate good agreement with FDS tending to over predict the pre-mixed and diffusion-mode tests by 6% and 10%, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego Verification Manual - Version 5.24

The SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego, henceforth referred to as Fuego, is the key element of the ASC fire environment simulation project. The fire environment simulation project is directed at characterizing both open large-scale pool fires and building enclosure fires. Fuego represents the turbulent, buoyantly-driven incompressible flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, combustion, soot, and absorption coefficient model portion of the simulation software. Sierra/PMR handles the participating-media thermal radiation mechanics. This project is an integral part of the SIERRA multi-mechanics software development project. Fuego depends heavily upon the core architecture developments provided by SIERRA for massively parallel computing, solution adaptivity, and mechanics coupling on unstructured grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego Verification Manual (V.5.26)

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego Verification Manual - Version 5.28

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

SIERRA Low Mach Module: Fuego Verification Manual - Version 5.30

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Wildfire-Power Grid Interactions: Feedback, Impacts, Monitoring, Modeling, and Mitigation Strategies

Wildfires are increasingly interacting with electric power systems through a two-way hazard chain: fires damage grid assets and trigger cascading outages, while grid faults can ignite new fires under hot, dry, and windy conditions. This review synthesizes the state of knowledge across five domains: (i) physical impacts of flames, heat, and smoke on lines, towers, insulators, and substations; (ii) power-infrastructure-initiated ignitions via conductor clash, high-impedance faults, and corona discharge; (iii) widespread blackouts and disproportionate societal impacts; (iv) multi-scale monitoring spanning laboratory tests, in-situ and grid-integrated sensors, and Earth observation; (v) coupled modeling that links fire behavior with grid operations; and (vi) technological and strategic mitigation pathways spanning prevention, response, and recovery. We integrate these domains into a novel 'feedback-aware' socio-technical framework. Through a longitudinal analysis (2005-2025) of global incidents, we identify that while vegetation contact remains the most frequent ignition source, aging infrastructure failure has emerged as a critical driver of catastrophic 'mega-fires'. We further identify persistent gaps, including limited interoperability of high-frequency grid and environmental data, scarce real-time data assimilation, and under-developed equity metrics for outage management. We conclude by outlining a research agenda to (1) deploy interoperable sensing architectures, (2) advance feedback-coupled fire-grid simulations, and (3) evaluate mitigation portfolios through techno-economic and fairness lenses. Recognizing wildfire-grid interactions as coupled socio-technical systems is essential for protecting infrastructure and communities and for ensuring reliable, sustainable electricity in a changing world.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

On FIRE mode in KSTAR

We report on the status of Fast Ion Regulated Enhancement (FIRE) mode experiments in the Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research. This regime is being developed for high-performance, steady-state operation which features a stationary ion internal transport barrier, enabling a central ion temperature approaching 10 keV to be sustained for up to 50 s, without the need for delicate profile control and with no significant impurity accumulation. As its key novelty lies in the significant contribution of fast ions that stabilize core turbulence, the regime has been named FIRE mode. To achieve this regime, neutral beam injection is applied at moderate power levels near the L–H power threshold, while maintaining low plasma density to avoid the L–H transition. The scenario is typically established in diverted magnetic configurations. The core features of FIRE mode were investigated through power balance analysis and fluctuation measurements, revealing a clear transport bifurcation in the ion channel. At the plasma edge, FIRE mode occasionally exhibits I-mode characteristics, particularly in unfavorable magnetic null configurations with q 95 ∼ 4, including the presence of weakly coherent modes. In terms of MHD activity, sawtooth oscillations are observed but appear to be stabilized during the high-performance phase. Fast ion-driven Alfvénic eigenmodes (AEs), indicated by strong frequency chirping near 200 kHz, are also observed. Additionally, lower-frequency MHD activities, distinct from the fast ion-driven AEs, are present and have some influence on plasma performance. The enhancement of core confinement is primarily attributed to fast ion effects, which were evaluated with respect to dilution, alpha stabilization, and resonant interactions with turbulence using gyrokinetic analyses. Among these, the dilution effect was found to be the most dominant. The characteristics of FIRE mode were compared with those of other hot ion plasma scenarios, such as supershot and hot ion mode. While they share many similarities, FIRE mode is distinguished by the accessibility to conditions with T i ≈ T e , presence of I-mode edge features, and its long-duration sustainment. Predictive simulations of FIRE mode were performed using integrated transport modeling with TRIASSIC, employing the TGLF anomalous transport model. These simulations confirmed the critical role of fast ions in achieving this regime. The future prospect of FIRE mode for application in fusion reactors is discussed, with an emphasis on possibly extending the regime to higher density operation.

FIRE mode↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep-learning-based canopy height model generation from sub-meter resolution panchromatic satellite imagery

Canopy height models (CHMs) with sufficient resolution to distinguish individual trees are useful for a variety of applications. However, standard techniques to acquire such data, such as airborne lidar surveying, are often prohibitively expensive. Deep learning techniques for generating CHMs from high-resolution imagery are an attractive option to reduce costs. To date, success with these methods has been demonstrated using multichannel aerial photography and specialized satellite data products derived from multiple sensors, neither of which is commonly available at temporal resolutions finer than one year. Here we demonstrate a method to generate sub-meter resolution CHMs in three forests in California using a more abundant data source: sub-meter resolution, panchromatic satellite imagery from a single sensor. We show that phenology and species composition play important roles in model transferability; when trained using imagery from a single conifer forest in autumn, the model performs well on autumn imagery from a second conifer forest several hundred kilometers distant with no re-training. With modest additions to the training dataset, the same model generates minimally biased estimates of canopy height in both conifer and deciduous forests during multiple seasons. Because the model operates on satellite data with global coverage and a relatively short return interval, we propose its suitability to extrapolate tree-level canopy height data to remote regions and conduct high-temporal resolution monitoring of forest structure. We furthermore demonstrate the workflow’s applicability to fire modeling by conducting simulations in forests populated by trees measured using both this approach and airborne lidar surveying. We find minimal differences in fire behavior relative to a baseline case in which only statistical distributions of tree height and crown area are known. This result underscores the value of forest structural information derived from our workflow for improving the fidelity of wildland fire simulations, among other ecological applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Burn severity and vegetation type control phosphorus concentration, molecular composition, and mobilization

Shifting phosphorus (P) dynamics after wildfires can have cascading impacts from terrestrial to aquatic environments. However, it is unclear whether shifts in P composition or P concentration are responsible for changes in P dynamics post-fire. We used laboratory leaching experiments of Douglas fir forest and sagebrush shrubland chars to examine how the potential mobility of P compounds is influenced by different burn severities. Burning produced a 6.9- and 29-fold increase in particulate P mobilization but a 3.8- and 30.5-fold decrease in aqueous P released for Douglas fir forest and sagebrush shrubland, respectively. The mechanisms driving particulate- and dissolved-phase P compound mobilization were contrasting. Phosphorus compound mobilization in the particulate phase was controlled by solid char total P concentrations, while the aqueous phase was driven by solubility changes of molecular species. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) on the solid chars indicated that organic orthophosphate monoester and diester species were thermally mineralized to inorganic P moieties with burning in both vegetation types, which decreases P solubility. This coincided with the production of calcium- and magnesium-bound inorganic P compounds. With increasing burn severity there were systematic shifts in P concentration and composition – higher-severity chars mobilized P compounds in the particulate phase, although the magnitude of change was vegetation-specific. Our results indicate a post-fire transformation to both the composition of the solid charred material and how P compounds are mobilized, which may influence its environmental cycling and fate.

31P solution-state NMR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Heating effects on jack pine pyrogenic organic matter properties from a pyrocosm study in 2022

This dataset contains data associated with the preprint “Fire removes preexisting pyrogenic organic matter from the ecosystem through the mechanisms of both direct combustion and increasing mineralizability” (Luo et al., 2025b), which is the complementary study to the published paper “Reburning pyrogenic organic matter: a laboratory method for dosing dynamic heat fluxes from above” (Luo et al., 2025a). We designed a full-factorial experiment with different burial depths of jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb) pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) (Surface, 1 cm, and 5 cm) and different heat-flux profiles (High, Low, and Control) to examine how subsequent fires affect the properties of preexisting PyOM. We measured total carbon (C), pH, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and mineralized C (as CO₂-C, from a 12-week incubation).We found that high heat flux and/or surface placement resulted in substantial direct C losses through combustion. Intermediate heat exposure produced both combustion losses and increases in DOC and mineralizability, which may have complex long-term implications: an increased dissolved fraction of PyOM may promote downward transport into mineral soils and potentially contribute to deeper, longer-term C storage, but it may also make PyOM more susceptible to microbial decomposition. Under the lowest heat flux and deepest burial, most PyOM was retained, and changes in DOC and C mineralization were minimal. Finally, PyOM pH, an important chemical property, decreased under low-temperature heating but increased under higher temperatures.We uploaded pH data for all samples (“pH_of_all_samples.csv”); pH and temperature-related data (peak temperature and degree hours) for samples in High and Low heat-flux treatments (“pH_vs_peakT_and_degree_hours_only_for_heated_samples.csv”); total C data (“CN_pct_C_stock_C_loss_in_samples.csv”); DOC and DIC data (“doc_dic.csv”); and mineralized C (CO₂-C) data (“CO2-C_all_original.csv”). Additional details can be found in the Methods & Sampling section.All datasets uploaded to ESS-DIVE are clearly labeled, cleaned, and include both raw and derived data, ready for reuse in other analyses. All analysis code and raw datasets are also available on GitHub: https://github.com/MengmengLuo/Fire-removes-preexisting-pyrogenic-organic-matter-from-the-ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A New Framework for Interstellar Medium Emission Line Models: Connecting Multiscale Simulations across Cosmological Volumes

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array have detected emission lines from the ionized interstellar medium (ISM) in some of the first galaxies at z ≳ 6. These measurements present an opportunity to better understand galaxy assembly histories and may allow important tests of state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations. It is challenging, however, to model these lines in their proper cosmological context. In order to meet this challenge, we introduce a novel subgrid line emission modeling framework. The framework uses the high-z zoom-in simulation suite from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) collaboration. The line emission signals from H II regions within each simulated FIRE galaxy are modeled using the semianalytic HIIL INES code. A machine learning approach is then used to determine the conditional probability distribution for the line luminosity to stellar-mass ratio from the H II regions around each simulated stellar particle. This conditional probability distribution can then be applied to predict the line luminosities around stellar particles in lower-resolution, yet larger volume cosmological simulations. As an example, we apply this approach to the IllustrisTNG simulations at z = 6. The resulting predictions for the [O II ], [O III ], and Balmer line luminosities as a function of star formation rate agree well with current observations. Our predictions differ, however, from related works in the literature, which lack detailed subgrid ISM models. This highlights the importance of our multiscale simulation modeling framework. Finally, we provide forecasts for future line luminosity function measurements from the JWST and quantify the cosmic variance in such surveys.

(ISM:) H II regions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation of Deuterium Oxidation in a Room with a Fire

A series of experiments where deuterium was released in trace amounts into a room with a fire were performed at Sandia National Laboratories. This report describes the corresponding effort to model the test series using SIERRA/FUEGO. The objective of this modeling effort was to produce a simulation test matrix that can be utilized to help interpret the corresponding experiments and be used to assess the credibility of using the SIERRA/FUEGO simulations as a surrogate for real tritium reaction data for mock fire and release studies. The simulations assessed multiple configurations of fire size and location and overall found that there was low conversion of deuterium to oxidized deuterium. There are some notable differences between the simulation predictions and the experimental results, such as the simulations generally predicting higher amounts of deuterium conversion compared to the experiment. A strategy to address modeling uncertainties and unknowns is also given in this report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of grassland fire dynamics on particulate emission factors

Understanding particulate emission factors in grassland fires is critical for improving air quality assessments and refining emissions inventories. This study explores the dynamic and heterogeneous nature of fire processes and their influence on particulate emissions. Traditional emission factor inventories often rely on static values, overlooking the spatially and temporally variable dynamics of fire behavior. Through field experiments conducted at Konza Prairie Biological Station measuring emissions with uncrewed aerial vehicles, and computational modeling using HIGRAD/FIRETEC, this research highlights the dependency of emission production on localized fire dynamics, including ignition patterns, fuel properties, and atmospheric conditions. The results demonstrate a need for fire dynamic considerations to accurately capture emissions variability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

FY24 – FY25 Efforts to Revive the ANS-54.8 Liquid Metal Fire Protection in LMR Plants Standard

The current multi-year effort seeks to utilize national laboratory support from Argonne to expedite revival of the ANS-54.8 standard titled “Liquid Metal Fire Protection in LMR Plants.” To achieve that objective, the following tasks were identified: Task 1 involves working directly with ANS to revive the ANS-54.8 Working Group. This was to be accomplished by completing necessary paperwork, submitting that paperwork to ANS for approval, enlisting potential working group members from industry, the NRC, national laboratories, and universities, and organizing and leading Working Group activities. The overall purpose of the Working Group is to develop an updated draft of ANS-54.8 for review and approval by ANS consensus committees, the ANS Standards Board, and certification from ANSI. Task 2 focuses on leveraging historical information and expertise at Argonne related to sodium fire protection systems and strategies. For more than a decade, Argonne has worked on both international and domestic projects related to sodium fire protection system development and evaluation. The goal of this task is to utilize that experience to help inform the ANS-54.8 Working Group on important considerations that may be addressed in an updated draft of ANS-54.8. Task 3 focuses on leveraging Argonne experience in the development of and use of analysis methods and tools for the simulation of sodium fire scenarios and evaluation of the effectiveness of sodium fire protection systems and strategies. For more than a decade, Argonne has recovered, modified, and utilized several historical sodium fire analysis software tools. The goal of this task is to utilize that experience to help inform the ANS-54.8 Working Group of best practices for sodium fire progression analysis that may be addressed in an updated draft of ANS-54.8.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗