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The M7.1 Hector Mine earthquake ruptured the Lavic Lake fault near Twentynine Palms, CA at 09:46 UTC October 16, 1999.
In the next few years, several opportunities are underway to take new geophysical observations of the Moon including geodetic and seismic. NASA’s novel Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program seeks to acquire delivery services from 14 US companies. Nine funded task orders have been selected with payloads from multiple disciplines. Here we review the upcoming geophysical CLPS payloads and their measurement objectives then we provide a review of the Lunar Geophysical Network mission in development for New Frontiers 5. The Lunar Geophysical Network (LGN) mission is proposed to land on the Moon in the early 2030’s and deploy packages at four locations to enable continuous geophysical measurements for a minimum of 6 and a goal of 10 years. Returning to the lunar surface with a long-lived geophysical network is a key next step to advance lunar and planetary science. LGN will greatly expand our primarily Apollo-based knowledge of the deep lunar interior by identifying and characterizing mantle melt layers, as well as core size and state. To meet the mission objectives, the instrument suite provides complementary seismic, geodetic, heat flow, and electromagnetic (EM) observations. We discuss the network landing site requirements and provide example sites that meet these requirements. Landing sites include the P-5 region within the Procellarum KREEP Terrane (PKT; (lat:15˚; lon:-35˚), Schickard basin (lat:-44.3˚; lon:-55.1˚), Crisium basin (lat:18.5˚; lon:61.8˚), and the farside Korolev basin (lat:-2.4˚; lon:-159.3˚) (Figure 1). Network optimization considers the best locations to observe seismic core phases, e.g., ScS and PKP. Ray path density and proximity to young fault scarps are also analyzed to provide increased opportunities for seismic observations. Geodetic constraints from laser ranging require the LGN to have at least three nearside stations at maximum limb distances. Heat flow and EM measurements should be obtained away from terrane boundaries and from magnetic anomalies at locations representative of global trends. In our recent paper, an in-depth case study is provided for Mare Crisium. We also discuss the consequences for scientific return of less-than-optimal locations or number of stations.
In the next few years, several opportunities are underway to take new geophysical observations of the Moon including geodetic and seismic. NASA’s novel Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program seeks to acquire delivery services from 14 US companies. Nine funded task orders have been selected with payloads from multiple disciplines. Here we review the upcoming geophysical CLPS payloads and their measurement objectives then we provide a review of the Lunar Geophysical Network mission in development for New Frontiers 5. The Lunar Geophysical Network (LGN) mission is proposed to land on the Moon in the early 2030’s and deploy packages at four locations to enable continuous geophysical measurements for a minimum of 6 and a goal of 10 years. Returning to the lunar surface with a long-lived geophysical network is a key next step to advance lunar and planetary science. LGN will greatly expand our primarily Apollo-based knowledge of the deep lunar interior by identifying and characterizing mantle melt layers, as well as core size and state. To meet the mission objectives, the instrument suite provides complementary seismic, geodetic, heat flow, and electromagnetic (EM) observations. We discuss the network landing site requirements and provide example sites that meet these requirements. Landing sites include the P-5 region within the Procellarum KREEP Terrane (PKT; (lat:15˚; lon:-35˚), Schickard basin (lat:-44.3˚; lon:-55.1˚), Crisium basin (lat:18.5˚; lon:61.8˚), and the farside Korolev basin (lat:-2.4˚; lon:-159.3˚) (Figure 1). Network optimization considers the best locations to observe seismic core phases, e.g., ScS and PKP. Ray path density and proximity to young fault scarps are also analyzed to provide increased opportunities for seismic observations. Geodetic constraints from laser ranging require the LGN to have at least three nearside stations at maximum limb distances. Heat flow and EM measurements should be obtained away from terrane boundaries and from magnetic anomalies at locations representative of global trends. In our recent paper, an in-depth case study is provided for Mare Crisium. We also discuss the consequences for scientific return of less-than-optimal locations or number of stations.
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We analyze over a century of geodetic data to study crustal deformation and plate motion around the Japanese Islands, using the block-fault model for crustal deformation developed by Matsu'ura et al. (1986). We model the area including the Japanese Islands with 19 crustal blocks and 104 faults based on the distribution of active faults and seismicity. Geodetic data are used to obtain block motions and average slip rates of faults. This geodetic model predicts that the Pacific plate moves N deg 69 +/- 2 deg W at about 80 +/- 3 mm/yr relative to the Eurasian plate which is much lower than that predicted in geologic models. Substantial aseismic slip occurs on the subduction boundaries. The block containing the Izu Peninsula may be separated from the rigid part of the Philippine Sea plate. The faults on the coast of Japan Sea and the western part of the Median Tectonic Line have slip rates exceeding 4 mm/yr, while the Fossa Magna does not play an important role in the tectonics of the central Japan. The geodetic model requires the division of northeastern Japan, contrary to the hypothesis that northeastern Japan is a part of the North American plate. Owing to rapid convergence, the seismic risk in the Nankai trough may be larger than that of the Tokai gap.
We propose a three-year applications project that will develop an Integrated Real-Time GPS/Seismic System and deploy it in Orange and Western Riverside Counties, spanning three major strike-slip faults in southern California (San Andreas, San Jacinto, and Elsinore) and significant populations and civilian infrastructure. The system relying on existing GPS and seismic networks will collect and analyze GPS and seismic data for the purpose of estimating and disseminating real-time positions and total ground displacements (dynamic, as well as static) during all phases of the seismic cycle, from fractions of seconds to years. Besides its intrinsic scientific use as a real-time displacement meter (transducer), the GPS/Seismic System will be a powerful tool for local and state decision makers for risk mitigation, disaster management, and structural monitoring (dams, bridges, and buildings). Furthermore, the GPS/Seismic System will become an integral part of California's spatial referencing and positioning infrastructure, which is complicated by tectonic motion, seismic displacements, and land subsidence. Finally, the GPS/Seismic system will also be applicable to navigation in any environment (land, sea, or air) by combining precise real-time instantaneous GPS positioning with inertial navigation systems. This development will take place under the umbrella of the California Spatial Reference Center, in partnership with local (Counties, Riverside County Flood and Water Conservation District, Metropolitan Water District), state (Caltrans), and Federal agencies (NGS, NASA, USGS), the geophysics community (SCIGN/SCEC2), and the private sector (RBF Consulting). The project will leverage considerable funding, resources, and R&D from SCIGN, CSRC and two NSF-funded IT projects at UCSD and SDSU: RoadNet (Real-Time Observatories, Applications and Data Management Network) and the High Performance Wireless Research and Education Network (HPWREN). These two projects are funded to develop both the wireless networks and the integrated, seamless, and transparent information management system that will deliver seismic, geodetic, oceanographic, hydrological, ecological, and physical data to a variety of end users in real-time in the San Diego region. CSRC is interested in providing users access to real-time, accurate GPS data for a wide variety of applications including RTK surveying/GIS and positioning of moving platforms such as aircraft and emergency vehicles. SCIGN is interested in upgrading sites to high-frequency real-time operations for rapid earthquake response and GPS seismology. The successful outcome of the project will allow the implementation of similar systems elsewhere, particularly in plate boundary zones with significant populations and civilian infrastructure. CSRC would like to deploy the GPS/Seismic System in other parts of California, in particular San Diego, Los Angeles County and the San Francisco Bay Area.
The average rates of line-length change and the rates of the shallow fault slip observed near Parkfield, California, were used to estimate the slip rate at depth on the San Andreas fault (SAF), using the Matsu'ura et al. (1986) procedure to model the aseismic deformation as a perturbation to steady block motion across the SAF. Five different models were tested against the data, with one model, featuring a nearly monotonic transition from creeping behavior on the northwest to locked behavior on the southeast, found to fit the data acceptably well. It is shown that stored elastic energy southeast of Parkfield could produce an earthquake of magnitude up to 8.0, that would have displacement and rupture length similar to historic earthquakes of the same size.
Two new versions of the physical base-traction model of Li and Rice (1987) have been developed to study the loading processes and surface deformation near plate boundaries with geometric complexities, including a shallow creeping fault segment and two subparallel faults. Predictions of surface velocity and surface slip rate for the region between the San Andreas fault and the Pacific coast at the latitude of the Parkfield-Cholame segment using model parameters based on geologic, geodetic, and seismic considerations were found to be in good agreement with contemporary geodetic field data (not used in constrainning model parameters). Also, predicted surface velocity for the Salton Sea-Coachella Valley area were fit to recently derived contemporary geodetic data and very large baseline interferometry data, althoug here the model parameters are not well constrained.
Tremor and low-frequency earthquakes are presumed to be indicative of surrounding slow, aseismic slip that is often below geodetic detection thresholds. This study uses data from borehole seismometers and long-baseline laser strainmeters to observe both the seismic and geodetic signatures of episodic tremor and slip on the Parkfield region of the San Andreas Fault near Cholame, CA. We note the observed occurrence rates of both the tremors and co-located families of low-frequency earthquakes are not steady but instead exhibit quasiperiodic bursts of increased activity.We show that these periods of elevated seismic activity correlate with statistically significant stacked strain signals consisting of 44 slow-slip events. Modeled individual slow-slip events and their total summed moment, which are constrained by seismic signals and stacked strain, respectively, indicate that the individual moment magnitudes of these events range from $M_w$ 4.6–5.2.We find that the measured geodetic signal likely precedes the seismic signal by several hours, consistent with the aseismic slip preceding and driving the observed seismic tremor activity.We confirm that strike-slip faults, in addition to subduction zones, are capable of producing episodic tremor and slip.
A detailed study was made of the consequences of the Arabian plate convergence against Eurasia and its effects on the tectonics of Anatolia and surrounding regions of the eastern Mediterranean. A primary source of information is time rates of change of baseline lengths and relative heights determined by repeated SLR measurements. These SLR observations are augmented by a network of GPS stations in Anatolia, Aegea, and Greece, established and twice surveyed since 1988. The existing SLR and GPS networks provide the spatial resolution necessary to reveal the details of ongoing tectonic processes in this area of continental collision. The effort has involved examining the state of stress in the lithosphere and relative plate motions as revealed by these space based geodetic measurements, seismicity, and earthquake mechanisms as well as the aseismic deformations of the plates from conventional geodetic data and geological evidence. These observations are used to constrain theoretical calculations of the relative effects of: (1) the push of the Arabian plate; (2) high topography of Eastern Anatolia; (3) the geometry and properties of African-Eurasian plate boundary; (4) subduction under the Hellenic Arc and southwestern Turkey; and (5) internal deformation and rotation of the Anatolian plate.
All instrumented basaltic caldera collapses have generated M w > 5 very long period earthquakes. However, previous studies of source dynamics have been limited to lumped models treating the caldera block as rigid, leaving open questions related to how ruptures initiate and propagate around the ring fault, and the seismic expressions of those dynamics. Here, we present the first 3D numerical model capturing the nucleation and propagation of ring fault rupture, the mechanical coupling to the underlying viscoelastic magma, and the associated seismic wavefield. We demonstrate that seismic radiation, neglected in previous models, acts as a damping mechanism reducing coseismic slip by up to half, with effects most pronounced for large magma chamber volume/ring fault radius or highly compliant crust/compressible magma. Viscosity of basaltic magma has negligible effect on collapse dynamics. In contrast, viscosity of silicic magma significantly reduces ring fault slip. We use the model to simulate the 2018 Kilauea caldera collapse. Three stages of collapse, characterized by ring fault rupture initiation and propagation, deceleration of the downward-moving caldera block and magma column, and post-collapse resonant oscillations, in addition to chamber pressurization, are identified in simulated and observed (unfiltered) near-field seismograms. A detailed comparison of simulated and observed displacement waveforms corresponding to collapse earthquakes with hypocenters at various azimuths of the ring fault reveals a complex nucleation phase for earthquakes initiated on the northwest. Our numerical simulation framework will enhance future efforts to reconcile seismic and geodetic observations of caldera collapse with conceptual models of ring fault and magma chamber dynamics.
The northwest directed motion of the Pacific plate is accompanied by migration and collision of the Yakutat terrane into the cusp of southern Alaska. The nature and magnitude of accretion and translation on upper crustal faults and folds is poorly constrained, however, due to pervasive glaciation. In this study we used high-resolution topography, geodetic imaging, seismic, and geologic data to advance understanding of the transition from strike-slip motion on the Fairweather fault to plate margin deformation on the Bagley fault, which cuts through the upper plate of the collisional suture above the subduction megathrust. The Fairweather fault terminates by oblique-extensional splay faulting within a structural syntaxis, allowing rapid tectonic upwelling of rocks driven by thrust faulting and crustal contraction. Plate motion is partly transferred from the Fairweather to the Bagley fault, which extends 125 km farther west as a dextral shear zone that is partly reactivated by reverse faulting. The Bagley fault dips steeply through the upper plate to intersect the subduction megathrust at depth, forming a narrow fault-bounded crustal sliver in the obliquely convergent plate margin. Since . 20 Ma the Bagley fault has accommodated more than 50 km of dextral shearing and several kilometers of reverse motion along its southern flank during terrane accretion. The fault is considered capable of generating earthquakes because it is linked to faults that generated large historic earthquakes, suitably oriented for reactivation in the contemporary stress field, and locally marked by seismicity. The fault may generate earthquakes of Mw <= 7.5.