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At least 19 records

Central Asia Seismic Hazard Assessment (CASHA): A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) underpin the calculation of earthquake loads in most building codes around the world. In Central Asia, the building codes are slowly being updated to incorporate some of the contemporary concepts of seismic hazard representation. There is also a regional desire to coordinate hazard assessments and building code modernization. However, some challenges remain. Expertise in the region related to seismic hazard assessments is still largely compartmentalised, requiring a significant amount of training and capacity building in seismic hazard assessment related topics. In addition, there are vast amounts of seismic data (bulletin and waveforms), both from analogue and digital eras, that the region’s countries stored but until recently did not use or share among themselves or with the broader seismological community around the world. Finally, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, many of the countries’ seismic networks suffered a major setback with the lack of attention and budget to update existing equipment and installation of new instruments. In order to address these issues, the United States Department of Energy through Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) initiated a project in 2016 to engage and train local scientists in Central Asia to install new equipment, to enhance the quality of seismic monitoring and reporting, to improve and harmonise the regional earthquake catalogue, and to conduct national probabilistic seismic hazard assessments using the new and improved datasets. To achieve the seismic hazard assessment related goals, a series of workshops were held in Almaty, Kazakhstan; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; and Dushanbe, Tajikistan from 2016 until 2020. During the time that the COVID-19 pandemic restricted travel, workshops continued online (22 online workshops were hosted in two years). Finally, in May 2022, an in-person workshop in Istanbul, Turkey brought together all project participants along with civil engineers engaged with building code activities in their respective countries, providing a platform to discuss the implementation of the hazard models into updates of building codes in each country, as well as to discuss model parameters, sensitivity analyses and model results in terms of hazard maps, uniform hazard spectra and hazard deaggregations. The workshops were a combination of lectures and hands-on exercises, and included international participation as well as local scientists and engineers. The workshops served several purposes, including training, coordination of data collection, interactions between local earth scientists and engineers, and brainstorming and knowledge exchange among local and international experts. This report outlines the new earthquake catalogue compilation effort and the PSHA project undertaken in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan as part of this initiative. The southern part of this region is tectonically active with moderate to high levels of both shallow crustal seismic activity and occurrence of deeper earthquakes under the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain ranges. Deeper earthquakes also occur near southwestern Kazakhstan, under the eastern Greater Caucasus and Caspian Sea. Large portions of central and northern Kazakhstan, on the other hand, are in stable continental regions with low levels of seismic activity. This study systematically compiles and improves all available data on local seismicity, active faults, and ground motion attenuation characteristics of the region; and builds a framework to enable a contemporary PSHA to be carried out with the engagement of local scientists. While the project was regional, the seismic hazard assessments are primarily driven by the countries’ own national preferences and understanding of data collection, interpretation, and validation of results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Laboratory investigation of hydraulic fracturing in granitic rocks using active and passive seismic monitoring

SUMMARY Knowledge of the fracturing processes can be important for the optimization of pressurized fluid injection operations in the deep underground rock mass. Active and passive seismic monitoring techniques have been used in the field for tracking or mapping the propagating hydraulic fracture. Although both these monitoring techniques provide valuable information about the generated fracture network, it is difficult for either technique to comprehensibly identify the different processes associated with hydraulic fracturing. The combined active and passive monitoring has the potential for better characterization of the complex hydraulic fracturing phenomena. In this study, laboratory hydraulic fracturing experiments with combined active and passive seismic monitoring were conducted on true triaxially loaded Barre granite cubes with different fluid injection rates. The seismic inelastic fracturing was detected by 16 passive acoustic emission sensors, where 3678 and 2370 seismic source events were detected for the high and low injection rate experiments, respectively. For active monitoring, strong variations in the attributes of signals were observed which were transmitted through four source–receiver pairs, placed both perpendicular and parallel to the generated hydraulic fracture. Positive velocity changes were observed for active sensor pairs with ray paths passing through the generated hydraulic fracture indicating fluid permeation, whereas isolated dry deformation was characterized by a slight but permanent velocity decrease. Compared to velocity, the energy of the active signals was 1–2 orders of magnitude more sensitive to different hydraulic fracturing processes. However, the sensitivity and signatures of the active signal attributes were found to be dependent on the frequency range and direction of ray path with respect to the location of the generated fracture network. Using the coupled evaluation of the active and passive signals we were able to systematically identify various hydraulic fracturing processes including: (1) aseismic deformation, (2) fracture initiation and fluid permeation, (3) pressure build-up, (4) fracture propagation and (5) pressure release and leak-off. The results of this study showed that combining the respective advantages of active and passive seismic techniques and using both of them to monitor the failure processes can facilitate a more comprehensive understanding and better control of the hydraulic stimulations in subsurface operations.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Seeking Repeating Anthropogenic Seismic Sources: Implications for Seismic Velocity Monitoring at Fault Zones

Abstract Seismic velocities in rocks are highly sensitive to changes in permanent deformation and fluid content. The temporal variation of seismic velocity during the preparation phase of earthquakes has been well documented in laboratories but rarely observed in nature. It has been recently found that some anthropogenic, high‐frequency (>1 Hz) seismic sources are powerful enough to generate body waves that travel down to a few kilometers and can be used to monitor fault zones at seismogenic depth. Anthropogenic seismic sources typically have fixed spatial distribution and provide new perspectives for velocity monitoring. In this work, we propose a systematic workflow to seek such powerful seismic sources in a rapid and straightforward manner. We tackle the problem from a statistical point of view, considering that persistent, powerful seismic sources yield highly coherent correlation functions (CFs) between pairs of seismic sensors. The algorithm is tested in California and Japan. Multiple sites close to fault zones show high‐frequency CFs stable for an extended period of time. These findings have great potential for monitoring fault zones, including the San Jacinto Fault and the Ridgecrest area in Southern California, Napa in Northern California, and faults in central Japan. However, extra steps, such as beamforming or polarization analysis, are required to determine the dominant seismic sources and study the source characteristics, which are crucial to interpreting the velocity monitoring results. Train tremors identified by the present approach have been successfully used for seismic velocity monitoring of the San Jacinto Fault in previous studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

3D Deep Learning Joint Inversion of Active Seismic Full Waveform and Passive Seismic Traveltime Data for Reservoir Imaging and Uncertainty Quantification

Here, we present deep learning (DL) networks for three-dimensional (3D) joint inversion of active seismic full waveform and passive seismic traveltime data to image reservoirs and their properties and quantify imaging uncertainties. Active seismic full-waveform data can provide high-resolution monitoring images but are collected only intermittently because of their high acquisition cost. In contrast, passive seismic data can be gathered at relatively low cost between regular active surveys, although their imaging quality can be compromised by factors such as low signal-to-noise ratios and limited ray coverage of the target. Although these datasets are routinely acquired together at CO 2 storage sites, their combined inversion within a 3D DL framework has not been previously demonstrated. To our knowledge, this is the first study to address this gap, combining the strength of both data types. For efficient data storage and DL training with large 3D seismic datasets, we use a 3D data matrix in which a random number of passive seismic traveltime data are stored as parabolic envelopes using one-hot encoding and a 3D full-waveform data matrix in which multiple shot gathers are summed. Two network architectures are evaluated: a single-encoder U-Net for single-data type inversion and a dual-encoder U-Net for joint inversion of active and passive seismic data. We also evaluate the single-encoder U-Net for joint inversion by concatenating full-waveform data and traveltime data. We propose a systematic approach for selecting an optimal dropout rate that balances regularization during training and Monte Carlo dropout-based uncertainty quantification during prediction by examining the correlation coefficient between standard deviation and prediction error, along with the training misfit, across a range of dropout rates. 3D DL inversion experiments include five different network configurations, with evaluations under ideal, noisy and dropout-enabled conditions. Both model and data uncertainties are assessed, as well as their combined effects. Across all conditions, the networks consistently predict accurate CO 2 saturation models with low prediction errors, such as a structural similarity index of 0.993 and CO 2 difference of 1.1%. Uncertainty estimates show strong spatial correlation with prediction errors, confirming the effectiveness of the proposed dropout selection approach. The results demonstrate that our DL approach, utilizing compact data representations and appropriate uncertainty quantification, yields accurate subsurface images under various inversion conditions and provides valuable insights into the reliability of predictions.

Um, Evan Schankee [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗

Real-Time Seismic System for Monitoring, Imaging, and Characterization (RT-SEISMIC)

The goal of this Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project was to develop a borehole seismic source and sensor array to enable real-time seismic imaging at scales and conditions relevant to the energy industry including both fossil-energy and geothermal. In FY21 and FY22, we designed, built, and tested both a prototype impulse source module for generating seismic energy and a sensing module for recording ground motions generated by the source module array. A pneumatically driven vibratory source was also designed. The source modules were fabricated with all high temperature components and the team has worked to incorporate the current RT-SEISMIC electronics design into a commercially available, high temperature silicon-on-insulator chip integrated circuit. Several issues were identified during fabrication and lab testing that led to redesign of several system components and subsequent retesting. The final round of testing showed that while metal/graphite-based seals worked quite well for static seals, they were unable to provide an adequate gas seal for dynamic, reciprocating part movements which necessitated a final redesign using Kalrez. This change will result in a continuous temperature rating of approximately 275 degrees C for the system. While a field test of the RT-SEISMIC system was targeted in FY22, due to the extended lab testing and redesign efforts, field testing was not achieved. As a result of this LDRD investment, several sponsors have expressed interest in RT-SEISMIC and we expect to continue towards a field demonstration of the full system in the future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Integration of seismic-pressure-petrophysics inversion of continuous active-seismic monitoring data for monitoring and quantifying CO 2 plume (Final Report)

The overall objective of this project is to develop and validate an integrated package of joint seismic-pressure-petrophysics inversion (jSPPI) of continuous active-source seismic monitoring dataset capable of providing real-time monitoring of CO 2 plume during geologic carbon sequestration (GCS). The three specific developments include: (a) the methodologies for fast seismic full waveform inversion of continuous active source seismic monitoring, (CASSM) datasets for simultaneously estimating velocity and attenuation, and with data assimilation; (b) joint Bayesian petrophysical inversion of seismic models and pressure data for providing and updating CO 2 saturation models; (c) the methods using multiple datasets including (Crainfield and Frio-II borehole) synthetic, laboratory, and field CASSM datasets. The outcomes of jSPPI include (a) a workflow for processing CASSM data, (b) Bayesian inversion algorithms using CASSM data and pressure response data, and (c) integration with data assimilation algorithms for continuously updating site-specific models used for prediction and reservoir management. The validation of joint FWI will be conducted using synthetic models based on the Cranfield and Frio experiments as well as field CASSM datasets collected as part of the Frio-II pilot injection. To quantify and map the mass and distribution of CO 2 (saturation), we will jointly invert velocity and attenuation measurements from the FWI with a Bayesian approach using a rock physics model for attenuation (e.g., White’s attenuation model with two selected patch sizes (White, 1976; Dutta and Seriff, 1979)). The Bayesian inversion will be applied to each time step in the CASSM survey in an updating scheme, which integrates with an ensemble of reservoir simulations at each step. A more complete experimental validation dataset will be collected as part of a mesoscale (2-3 m) gas-CO 2 injection experiment utilizing a higher frequency version of the CASSM system developed for laboratory studies; the integrated inversion will be demonstrated using this dataset which will provide both a dense geometry as well as more precise secondary confirmation measurements (e.g. saturation) typically not available in the field. The resulting real-time map of CO 2 saturation is able to provide a deeper scientific understanding of the complex, time-varying dynamics of subsurface fluid flow migration path as well as the rapid detection of CO 2 leakage hazards.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Monitoring Seismic Velocity Changes Across the San Jacinto Fault Using Train‐Generated Seismic Tremors

Abstract Microseismic noise has been used for seismic velocity monitoring. However, such signals are dominated by low‐frequency surface waves that are not ideal for detecting changes associated with small tectonic processes. Here we show that it is possible to extract stable, high‐frequency body waves using seismic tremors generated by freight trains. Such body waves allow us to focus on small velocity perturbations in the crust with high spatial resolution. We report on 10 years of seismic velocity temporal changes at the San Jacinto Fault. We observe and map a two‐month‐long episode of velocity changes with complex spatial distribution and interpret the velocity perturbation as produced by a previously undocumented slow‐slip event. We verify the hypothesis through numerical simulations and locate this event along a fault segment believed to be locked. Such a slow‐slip event stresses its surroundings and may trigger a major earthquake on a fault section approaching failure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Daily and Seasonal Variations of Shallow Seismic Velocities in Southern California From Joint Analysis of H/V Ratios and Autocorrelations of Seismic Waveforms

Establishing a baseline of ongoing secular velocity variations at the subsurface can improve the accuracy of detecting and interpreting short-term velocity changes, and advance the understanding of observed seismic motions and the behavior of subsurface materials. Toward these goals, we develop and apply a deconvolved autocorrelation (DA) method to estimate regional daily and seasonal changes of seismic velocities in southern California. The DA method combines advantages of traditional autocorrelation and Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio, and is used to analyze over 10 years of data recorded by 50 stations. The results indicate widespread daily and seasonal changes of up to 10% and 4%, respectively, in the top tens of meters of the crust. The thickness of the surface layer, distance from the coast, and topographic variations are important factors controlling the amplitudes of the resolved velocity variations. The results suggest that changes of soil moisture and thermoelastic strain are likely dominant factors affecting the daily and seasonal variations, respectively. The developed DA method can improve the accuracy and robustness of estimated changes of subsurface materials at other locations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismic monitoring of underground vibration: database of seismic data and ground truth

Seismic waves provide valuable insights into underground activities, serving as an essential tool for monitoring anomalies that could signal containment breaches in geological repositories. We aim to test and refine underground detection and geolocation techniques to identify anomalous vibration signals indicative of potential breaches, thereby strengthening georepository safeguards. We evaluate the effectiveness of two distinct, low-maintenance sensing technologies (surface geophones and underground distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) fiber optic cable) leveraging existing datasets. This report details the experimental designs, instrumentation, and data characteristics for both seismic and DAS arrays. Additionally, we provide a ground truth database documenting relevant operational activities for each experiment.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Seismicity-constrained fault detection and characterization with a multitask machine learning model

Geological fault detection and characterization are crucial for understanding subsurface dynamics across scales. While methods for fault delineation based on either seismicity location analysis or seismic image reflector discontinuity are well-established, a systematic approach that integrates both data types remains absent. We develop a novel machine learning model that unifies seismic reflector images and seismicity location information to automatically identify geological faults and characterize their geometrical properties. The model encodes a seismic image and a seismicity location image separately, and fuses the encoded features with a spatial-channel attention fusion module to improve the learning of important features in both inputs. We design an automated strategy to generate high-quality synthetic training data and labels. To improve the realism of the seismicity location image, we include random seismicity noise and missing seismicity location associated with some of the faults. We validate the model’s efficacy and accuracy using synthetic data examples and two field data examples. Moreover, we show that fine-tuning the trained model with a small, domain-specific dataset enhances its fidelity for field data applications. The results demonstrate that integrating seismicity location and seismic images into a unified framework allows the end-to-end neural network to achieve higher fidelity and accuracy in delineating subsurface faults and their geometrical properties compared with image-only fault detection methods. Our approach offers an adaptive data-driven tool for geological fault characterization and seismic hazard mitigation, bridging the gap between seismicity location and image-based fault detection methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DeFault: DEep‐Learning‐Based FAULT Delineation Using the IBDP Passive Seismic Data at the Decatur CO2 Storage Site

Abstract The carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) framework is an essential component in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with its success hinging on the comprehensive knowledge of subsurface geology and geomechanics. Passive seismic event relocation and fault detection offer vital insights into subsurface structures and the ability to monitor fluid migration pathways. Accurate identification and localization of seismic events, however, face significant challenges, including the necessity for high‐quality seismic data and advanced computational methods. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel deep learning method, , specifically designed for passive seismic source relocation and fault delineating for passive seismic monitoring projects. By leveraging data domain‐adaptation, allows us to train a neural network with labeled synthetic data and apply it directly to field data. Using , the passive seismic sources are automatically clustered based on their recording time and spatial locations, and subsequently, faults and fractures are delineated accordingly. We demonstrate the efficacy of on a field case study involving injection related microseismic data from Decatur, Illinois area. Our approach accurately and efficiently relocated passive seismic events, identified faults and could aid in potential damage induced by seismicity. Our results highlight the potential of as a valuable tool for passive seismic monitoring, emphasizing its role in ensuring CCUS project safety. This research bolsters the understanding of subsurface characterization in CCUS, illustrating machine learning’s capacity to refine these methods. Ultimately, our work has significant implications for CCUS technology deployment, an essential strategy in combating climate change. Plain Language Summary In our quest to tackle climate change, we use a strategy known as carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) to keep greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere. This strategy relies heavily on our ability to understand what's happening deep under the earth's surface. To make sure we store super critical safely, we need to accurately map out the geological structure, especially faults, but this is tough without high‐quality data and complex computer programs. We've developed a new tool called “DeFault,” which uses advanced machine learning to improve how we find and map these underground features. “DeFault” is smart enough to learn from numerically simulated data and then apply what it’s learned to real‐world situations. It groups together seismic activity—tiny tremors and shifts in the earth—based on when and where they happen, which helps us spot where there might be cracks or faults. We tested “DeFault” in Illinois, where CO 2 is injected underground, and it successfully pinpointed where these tremors occurred and mapped out the faults, helping to prevent accidents accurately in the future. Our study shows that “DeFault” will be a powerful ally in making CCUS safer and more effective, especially for the Illinois Basin Decatur Project. Key Points Faults and fractures introduced by carbon storage can be monitored by passive seismicity DeFault algorithm enables an automatic process for accurate and efficient passive seismic event locating and clustering

58 GEOSCIENCES↗