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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2020

A Robust Segmented Mixed Effect Regression Model for Baseline Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Renewable energy production has been surging around the world in recent years. To mitigate the increasing uncertainty and intermittency of the renewable generation, proactive demand response algorithms and programs are proposed and developed to further improve the utilization of load flexibility and increase the efficiency of power system operation. One of the biggest challenges to efficient control and operation of demand response resources is how to forecast the baseline electricity consumption and estimate the load impact from demand response resources accurately. In this paper, we propose a mixed effect segmented regression model and a new robust estimate for forecasting the baseline electricity consumption in Southern California, USA, by combining the ideas of random effect regression model, segmented regression model, and the least trimmed squares estimate. Since the log-likelihood of the considered model is not differentiable at breakpoints, we propose a new backfitting algorithm to estimate the unknown parameters. The estimation performance of the new estimation procedure has been demonstrated with both simulation studies and the real data application for the electric load baseline forecasting in Southern California.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Solar Energy Product Based on Cloud Coverage Estimation Using Machine Learning Methods

Cloud cover estimation from images taken by sky-facing cameras can be an important input for analyzing current weather conditions and estimating photovoltaic power generation. The constant change in position, shape, and density of clouds, however, makes the development of a robust computational method for cloud cover estimation challenging. Accurately determining the edge of clouds and hence the separation between clouds and clear sky is difficult and often impossible. Toward determining cloud cover for estimating photovoltaic output, we propose using machine learning methods for cloud segmentation. We compare several methods including a classical regression model, deep learning methods, and boosting methods that combine results from the other machine learning models. To train each of the machine learning models with various sky conditions, we supplemented the existing Singapore whole sky imaging segmentation database with hazy and overcast images collected by a camera-equipped Waggle sensor node. We found that the U-Net architecture, one of the deep neural networks we utilized, segmented cloud pixels most accurately. However, the accuracy of segmenting cloud pixels did not guarantee high accuracy of estimating solar irradiance. We confirmed that the cloud cover ratio is directly related to solar irradiance. Additionally, we confirmed that solar irradiance and solar power output are closely related; hence, by predicting solar irradiance, we can estimate solar power output. This study demonstrates that sky-facing cameras with machine learning methods can be used to estimate solar power output. This ground-based approach provides an inexpensive way to understand solar irradiance and estimate production from photovoltaic solar facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydrologic Regionalization under Data Scarcity: Implications for Streamflow Prediction

Continuous streamflow prediction is crucial in many applications of water resources planning and management. However, streamflow prediction is challenging, particularly in data-scarce regions. Here, we demonstrate an approach to regionalize the flow duration curve for predicting daily streamflow in the data-scare region of the central Himalayas. We developed a regression-based model to estimate streamflow at various segments of a flow duration curve by incorporating basin characteristics and climate variables. This study analyzes the sensitivities of proximity and characteristics between the donor (gauged) and receptor (ungauged) basins for time-series streamflow prediction. Our results show that regionalization techniques perform better in low to medium flows over high flows. Our findings are significant in the central Himalayan regional context to inform operational and management decisions in water sector projects like hydropower plants, which generally rely on low-to-medium streamflow information. Although the quantitative results are region-specific, the approach and insights are generalizable to the Himalayan region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of U-net-based Image Segmentation Model to Digital Mammography

Detecting suspicious lesions in medical imaging is the important first step in computer-aided detection (CAD) systems. However, detecting abnormalities in breast tissue is difficult due to the lesion's varying size, shape, margin, and contrast with the background tissue. We focused on mass segmentation, a method that provides notable morphological features by outlining contours of masses. Accurate segmentation is crucial for correct diagnosis. Recent advancements in deep learning have improved object detection and segmentation, and these techniques are also being applied to medical imaging studies. We focused on U-net, which is a recently developed mass segmentation algorithm based on a fully convolutional network. The U-net architecture consists of (1) a contracting path to increase the resolution of the output and (2) a symmetric expanding path to better locate the region of interest. The performance of a U-net model was tested with 63 digital mammograms from INbreast, a publicly available database. We trained the model with images resized to 40x40 pixels and conducted 10-fold cross-validation to prevent overfitting. The model's performance with respect to breast density and the lesion's BI-RADS rating was also investigated. Dice coefficients (DC) were used as a performance measure to compare the predicted segmentation of the model with the ground truth. Logistic regression and an analysis of variance were performed to determine the significance of the DCs with regards to breast density and lesion behavior and to calculate the 95% confidence interval. The average DC was 0.80. The difference between DCs for BI-RADS 2 and 4c and for BI-RADS 2 and 5 were significant, suggesting that the model has more difficulty in segmenting benign lesions.

Cho, Priscilla↗

DOE OSTI2021

Segmentation of Deposition Periods: An Opportunity to Improve PV Soiling Extraction

Soiling profiles are commonly assumed to have sawtooth shapes, made of alternating cleaning events and soiling deposition periods. The rates at which soiling deposit on the PV modules are considered to be constant for each period. In reality, events such as changes in climatic conditions can lead to a sudden variation in soiling deposition rate. These changes cannot be reproduced if cleanings are the only events modelled to extract soiling profiles directly from PV performance data. For this reason, in this work, the use of change points and segmented regression is proposed to improve the extraction of soiling profiles through the model of up to two deposition rates per period in between cleanings. The results show that the quality of soiling extraction can be enhanced compared to a cleanings-only identification approach if both cleanings and change points are considered.

monitoring↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning approaches for instantaneous laser absorptance prediction in additive manufacturing

Abstract The quantification of absorbed light is essential for understanding laser-material interactions and melt pool dynamics in order to minimize defects in additively manufactured metal components. The geometry of a vapor depression formed during laser melting is closely related to laser energy absorption. This relationship has been observed by the state-of-the-art in situ high-speed synchrotron X-ray visualization and integrating sphere radiometry. These two techniques create a temporally resolved dataset consisting of vapor depression images and corresponding laser absorptance. In this work, we propose two different approaches to predict instantaneous laser absorptance. The end-to-end approach uses deep convolutional neural networks to learn implicit features of X-ray images automatically and predict the laser energy absorptance. The two-stage approach uses a semantic segmentation model to engineer geometric features and predict absorptance using classical regression models. While having distinct advantages, both approaches achieved a consistently low mean absolute error of less than 3.3%.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

Qualitative trend analysis based on a mixed-integer representation

Shape constrained spline fitting is a useful method to impose prior knowledge onto flexible semi-parametric models during parameter estimation. Most typically, the function shape is imposed through order restrictions on the regression coefficients. The intended shape is considered known or selected based on heuristic rules. In this study, we present a method to estimate the optimal set of order restrictions to segment a univariate data series into episodes with distinct shapes. This is also known as the qualitative trend analysis (QTA) problem. The obtained solution uses a trade-off between lack-of-fit and model complexity. Further, our practical implementation takes inspiration from the generalized order restricted information criterion (GORIC) for inequality-constrained model selection. From this, one learns (a) that QTA can be formulated as a mixed-integer quadratic program (MIQP) and (b) that the newly proposed mixed order restricted information criterion (MORIC) enables optimal segmentation. This is illustrated through didactic case studies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Arm and shoulder muscle segmentation in axial MRI with UNet deep learning model

Quantifying individual upper-limb muscle volumes from MRI provides key insight into muscle-specific strength, deficits, and adaptations. Manual delineation is the gold standard but time‑intensive, and the performance of current deep learning approaches, particularly for small or anatomically complex muscles, remains incompletely characterized. We evaluated a state‑of‑the‑art deep learning framework across the entire upper limb and analyzed factors governing segmentation performance, with attention to the forearm. Three previously published MRI datasets (1.5 T, 3D GRE T1‑weighted; total n = 39) spanning young, middle‑aged, and older adults were curated and quality‑checked, including expert manual segmentations for 31 muscles. Following multiclass mask reconstruction, we trained three 3D nnU‑Net multiclass models matched to the muscle subsets present across datasets, using five‑fold cross‑validation and a composite Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) + cross entropy loss. Segmentation accuracy was assessed with DSC. Performance varied across muscles (mean DSC = 0.806 ± 0.098), ranging from 0.920 (Deltoid) to 0.461 (Extensor pollicis brevis). In uncertainty‑weighted regressions, muscle volume was positively associated with DSC (R2 = 0.36, p < 0.001), whereas training segmentation count and muscle orientation showed negligible associations (R2 ≤ 0.06). A weighted mixed‑effects model identified volume as the strongest evaluated predictor, explaining 23.9% of variance in DSC; orientation and training count each contributed <1%, leaving 61.5% unexplained. These results indicate that deep learning–based segmentation can accurately quantify muscle volume for many upper‑limb muscles but remains constrained for small, low‑contrast forearm muscles.

Gillespie, Samuel↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-assisted profiling of a kinked ladder polymer structure using scattering

Ladder polymers consisting of fused rings in the backbone have very limited conformational freedom, which results in very different properties from traditional linear polymers. However, accurately determining their size and chain conformations from solution scattering remains a challenge. Their chain conformations of kinked ladder polymers are largely governed by the structures and relative orientations or configurations of the repeat units, unlike conventional polymer chains whose bending angles between repeat units follow a unimodal Gaussian distribution. Meanwhile, traditional scattering models for polymer chains do not account for these unique structural features. This work introduces a novel approach that integrates machine learning with Monte Carlo simulations to construct a model that can describe the geometry of a type of kinked CANAL ladder polymers. We first develop a Monte Carlo simulation model for sampling the configuration space of CANAL ladder polymers, where each repeat unit is modeled as a biaxial segment. Then, we establish a machine learning-assisted scattering analysis framework based on Gaussian Process Regression. Finally, we conduct small-angle neutron scattering experiments on a CANAL ladder polymer solution to apply our approach. Our method uncovers structural features of such ladder polymers that conventional methods fail to capture.

Ding, Lijie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Nugget Size of Resistance Spot Welds Using Infrared Thermal Videos With Image Segmentation and Convolutional Neural Network

Resistance spot welding (RSW) is a widely adopted joining technique in automotive industry. Recent advancement in sensing technology makes it possible to collect thermal videos of the weld nugget during RSW using an infrared (IR) camera. The effective and timely analysis of such thermal videos has the potential of enabling in situ nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of the weld nugget by predicting nugget thickness and diameter. Deep learning (DL) has demonstrated to be effective in analyzing imaging data in many applications. However, the thermal videos in RSW present unique data-level challenges that compromise the effectiveness of most pre-trained DL models. We propose a novel image segmentation method for handling the RSW thermal videos to improve the prediction performance of DL models in RSW. The proposed method transforms raw thermal videos into spatial-temporal instances in four steps: video-wise normalization, removal of uninformative images, watershed segmentation, and spatial-temporal instance construction. The extracted spatial-temporal instances serve as the input data for training a DL-based NDE model. The proposed method is able to extract high-quality data with spatial-temporal correlations in the thermal videos, while being robust to the impact of unknown surface emissivity. Overall, our case studies demonstrate that the proposed method achieves better prediction of nugget thickness and diameter than predicting without the transformation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi deep learning-based stochastic microstructure reconstruction and high-fidelity micromechanics simulation of time-dependent ceramic matrix composite response

A multi deep learning-based framework is developed for efficient, automated microstructure reconstruction and generation of stochastic representative volume elements (SRVEs) with periodic boundary conditions (PBCs) for accurate modeling of ceramic matrix composite (CMC) response. The methodology comprises a convolutional neural network coupled with regression layers to act as a vanilla regression network for semantic segmentation of the microstructure, allowing accurate characterization of the phases and their distributions at the microscale. Scanning electron microscope and confocal microscope are used to obtain C/SiNC and SiC/SiNC CMCs micrographs for vanilla regression testing. Microstructure variability in terms of fiber volume fraction and porosity are quantified through the output regression layer, ensuring accurate representation of material variability in SRVE construction. Generative adversarial network (GAN) and its variants are designed to produce high-fidelity SRVE, spanning CMCs microstructure variability space. A circular padding algorithm is developed to generate SRVEs with PBCs during training of GANs. The accuracy of the generated SRVEs is established through micromechanics simulations, where an efficient formulation of the high-fidelity generalized methods of cells (HFGMC) approach is used to compute the effective mechanical properties. Furthermore, an iterative algorithm is implemented in the HFGMC solver to simulate time-dependent deformation of SiC/SiNC subjected to creep loading conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measurement of hybrid rocket solid fuel regression rate for a slab burner using deep learning

This study presents an imaging-based deep learning tool to measure the fuel regression rate in a 2D slab burner experiment for hybrid rocket fuels. The slab burner experiment is designed to verify mechanistic models of reacting boundary layer combustion in hybrid rockets by the measurement of fuel regression rates. A DSLR camera with a high intensity flash is used to capture images throughout the burn and the images are then used to find the fuel boundary to calculate the regression rate. A U-net convolutional neural network architecture is explored to segment the fuel from the experimental images. Here, a Monte-Carlo Dropout process is used to quantify the regression rate uncertainty produced from the network. The U-net computed regression rates are compared with values from other techniques from literature and show error less than 10%. An oxidizer flux dependency study is performed and shows the U-net predictions of regression rates are accurate and independent of the oxidizer flux, when the images in the training set are not over-saturated. Training with monochrome images is explored and is not successful at predicting the fuel regression rate from images with high noise. The network is superior at filtering out noise introduced by soot, pitting, and wax deposition on the chamber glass as well as the flame when compared to traditional image processing techniques, such as threshold binary conversion and spatial filtering. U-net consistently provides low error image segmentations to allow accurate computation of the regression rate of the fuel.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

HAPPA: A Modular Platform for HPC Application Resilience Analysis with LLMs Embedded

High-performance computing (HPC) systems are increasingly vulnerable to soft errors, which pose significant challenges in maintaining computational accuracy and reliability. Predicting the resilience of HPC applications to these errors is crucial for robust code protection and detailed resilience analysis. In this study, we present HAppA, a modular platform designed for HPC Application Resilience Analysis. Embedding Large Language Models (LLMs), HAppA addresses understanding the context information of long code sequences typical in HPC applications. HAppA implements a novel code representation module that chunks the code into fixed-size segments and aggregates the embeddings of these segments. Three aggregation methods have been explored: MeanPooling, MaxPooling, and LSTM-based techniques. We built a DAtaset for REsilience analysis using Fault Injection (FI), named DARE. Using our DARE dataset, HAppA is trained for regression prediction tasks. Our evaluation results demonstrate the predictive accuracy of HAppA compared to other models, particularly noting that the LSTM-based aggregation method -- HAppA-LSTM -- achieves a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.078 for SDC prediction, surpassing the existing state-of-the-art PARIS model, which recorded an MSE of 0.1172. Additionally, HAppA with the KeyBERT model extracts a list of keywords representing the source code. A comprehensive importance analysis of these keywords further elucidates the code patterns contributing to the error rate. These findings highlight the effectiveness of HAppA in analyzing the resilience of HPC applications and establish a new benchmark for predictive accuracy in resilience.

Jiang, Hailong [Kent State University]↗

DOE OSTI2024

NuGraph2: A Graph Neural Network for Neutrino Event Reconstruction

Neutrino experiments are set to probe some of the most important open questions in physics, from CP violation and the nature of dark matter. The technology of choice for many of these experiments is the liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). In current LArTPC experiments, reconstruction performance often represents a limiting factor for the sensitivity. New developments are therefore needed to unlock the full potential of LArTPC experiments. NuGraph2 is a state of the art Graph Neural Network for reconstruction of data in LArTPC experiments. NuGraph2 utilizes a heterogeneous graph structure, with separate subgraphs of 2D nodes (hits in each plane) connected across planes via 3D nodes (space points). The model provides a consistent description of the neutrino interaction across all planes. NuGraph2 is a multi-purpose network, with a common message-passing attention engine connected to multiple decoders with different classification or regression tasks. These include the classification of detector hits according to the particle type that produced them (semantic segmentation) and the separation of hits from the neutrino interaction from hits due to noise or cosmic-ray background. Additional decoders are being developed, performing tasks such as the regression of the neutrino interaction vertex position. Performance results will be presented based on publicly available samples from MicroBooNE. These include both physics performance metrics, achieving 95% accuracy for semantic segmentation and 98% classification of neutrino hits, as well as computational metrics for training and for inference on CPU or GPU. The status of the NuGraph integration in the LArSoft software framework will be presented, as well as initial studies about model interpretability and injection of domain knowledge.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

NuGraph2: A Graph Neural Network for Neutrino Event Reconstruction

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

NuGraph2: A Graph Neural Network for Neutrino Event Reconstruction

Neutrino experiments are set to probe some of the most important open questions in physics, from CP violation and the nature of dark matter. The technology of choice for many of these experiments is the liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). In current LArTPC experiments, reconstruction performance often represents a limiting factor for the sensitivity. New developments are therefore needed to unlock the full potential of LArTPC experiments. NuGraph2 is a state of the art Graph Neural Network for reconstruction of data in LArTPC experiments [https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.11872]. NuGraph2 utilizes a heterogeneous graph structure, with separate subgraphs of 2D nodes (hits in each plane) connected across planes via 3D nodes (space points). The model provides a consistent description of the neutrino interaction across all planes. NuGraph2 is a multi-purpose network, with a common message-passing attention engine connected to multiple decoders with different classification or regression tasks. These include the classification of detector hits according to the particle type that produced them (semantic segmentation) and the separation of hits from the neutrino interaction from hits due to noise or cosmic-ray background. Additional decoders are being developed, performing tasks such as the regression of the neutrino interaction vertex position. Performance results will be presented based on publicly available samples from MicroBooNE. These include both physics performance metrics, achieving 95% accuracy for semantic segmentation and 98% classification of neutrino hits, as well as computational metrics for training and for inference on CPU or GPU. The status of the NuGraph integration in the LArSoft software framework will be presented, as well as initial studies about model interpretability and injection of domain knowledge.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

DOE OSTI2023

Combined Data and Deep Learning Model Uncertainties: An Application to the Measurement of Solid Fuel Regression Rate

In complex physical process characterization, such as the measurement of the regression rate for solid hybrid rocket fuels, where both the observation data and the model used have uncertainties originating from multiple sources, combining these in a systematic way for quantities of interest (QoI) remains a challenge. In this paper, we present a forward propagation uncertainty quantification (UQ) process to produce a probabilistic distribution for the observed regression rate r. We characterized two input data uncertainty sources from the experiment (the distortion from the camera U c and the non-zero-angle fuel placement U Y ), the prediction and model form uncertainty from the deep neural network (U m ), as well as the variability from the manually segmented images used for training it (U s ). Here, we conducted seven case studies on combinations of these uncertainty sources with the model form uncertainty. The main contribution of this paper is the investigation and inclusion of the experimental image data uncertainties involved, and how to include them in a workflow when the QoI is the result of multiple sequential processes.

42 ENGINEERING↗