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The Influence of Soil Moisture, Coastline Curvature, and Land-Breeze Circulations on Sea-Breeze Initiated Precipitation

Idealized numerical simulations are performed with a coupled atmosphere/land-surface model to identify the roles of initial soil moisture, coastline curvature, and land breeze circulations on sea breeze initiated precipitation. Data collected on 27 July 1991 during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CAPE) in central Florida are used. The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud resolving model is coupled with the Goddard Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model, thus providing a tool to simulate more realistically land-surface/atmosphere interaction and convective initiation. Eight simulations are conducted with either straight or curved coast-lines, initially homogeneous soil moisture or initially variable soil moisture, and initially homogeneous horizontal winds or initially variable horizontal winds (land breezes). All model simulations capture the diurnal evolution and general distribution of sea-breeze initiated precipitation over central Florida. The distribution of initial soil moisture influences the timing, intensity and location of subsequent precipitation. Soil moisture acts as a moisture source for the atmosphere, increases the connectively available potential energy, and thus preferentially focuses heavy precipitation over existing wet soil. Strong soil moisture-induced mesoscale circulations are not evident in these simulations. Coastline curvature has a major impact on the timing and location of precipitation. Earlier low-level convergence occurs inland of convex coastlines, and subsequent precipitation occurs earlier in simulations with curved coastlines. The presence of initial land breezes alone has little impact on subsequent precipitation. however, simulations with both coastline curvature and initial land breezes produce significantly larger peak rain rates due to nonlinear interactions.

Baker, David R.↗

Soil Moisture, Coastline Curvature, and Sea Breeze Initiated Precipitation Over Florida

Land surface-atmosphere interaction plays a key role in the development of summertime convection and precipitation over the Florida peninsula. Land-ocean temperature contrasts induce sea-breeze circulations along both coasts. Clouds develop along sea-breeze fronts, and significant precipitation can occur during the summer months. However, other factors such as soil moisture distribution and coastline curvature may modulate the timing, location, and intensity of sea breeze initiated precipitation. Here, we investigate the role of soil moisture and coastline curvature on Florida precipitation using the 3-D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model coupled with the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange (PLACE) land surface model. This study utilizes data from the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE) collected on 27 July 1991. Our numerical simulations suggest that a realistic distribution of soil moisture influences the location and intensity of precipitation but not the timing of precipitation. In contrast, coastline curvature affects the timing and location of precipitation but has little influence on peak rainfall rates. However, both factors (soil moisture and coastline curvature) are required to fully account for observed rainfall amounts.

Baker, R. David↗

Further considerations on modeling the sea breeze with a mixed-layer model

Mixed-layer models have been used to simulate low-level flows under a variety of situations, including flow over complex terrain and in the vicinity of coastal zones. The advantage of mixed-layer models compared to multilevel models is their simplicity and minimal computational requirements. A disadvantage is that the atmosphere above the mixed layer is not modeled explicitly and approximations pertaining to this layer become necessary. This paper examines five approximations for treating this upper layer for a simple sea-breeze circulation. Approximating the flow immediately above the mixed-layer height h by the mixed-layer velocity and using this velocity to advect potential temperature above h gives a better simulation of the sea breeze than the approximation used by Anthes et al. (1980), which neglected horizontal advection at this level.

Anthes, R. A.↗

Interaction of the sea breeze with a river breeze in an area of complex coastal heating

The interaction of the sea-breeze circulation with a river-breeze circulation in an area of complex coastal heating (east coast of Florida) was studied using a 3D finite-element mesoscale model. The model simulations are compared with temperature and wind fields observed on a typical fall day during the Kennedy Space Center Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment. The results from numerical experiments designed to isolate the effect of the river breeze indicate that the convergence in the sea-breeze front is suppressed when it passes over the cooler surface of the rivers.

Zhong, Shiyuan↗

Air pollutant transport in a coastal environment. Part 1: Two-dimensional simulations of sea-breeze and mountain effects

Over the southern California coastal region, observations of the vertical distributions of pollutants show that maximum concentrations can occur within temperature inversion layers well above the surface. A mesoscale model is used to study the dynamical phenomena that cause such layers, including sea breezes and mountain flows, and to study the characteristics of air pollutant transport in a coastal environment capped by a temperature inversion. The mathematical and physical structure of the model is described. Two-dimensional simulations corresponding to four configurations of coastal plains and mountains are discussed. The simulations reveal that pollutant transport over a coastal plain is strongly influenced by the topographic configuration, including the height of coastal mountains and their distance from the coastline. Sea breezes induced by land-sea thermal contrasts, as well as upslope winds induced along mountain flanks, both create vertical transport that can lead to the formation of elevated pollution layers. The sea-breeze circulation generates pollution layers by undercutting the mixed layer and lofting pollutants into the stable layer. Heating of mountain slopes acts to vent pollutants above the mountain ridge during the day; during the evening, pollutants can be injected directly into the inversion layer from the decaying upslope flows. In a land-sea configuration with mountains close to the coastline, the sea breeze and heated-mountain flow are strongly coupled. In the afternoon, this interaction can produce upslope flow from which polluted air is detrained into the inversion layer as a return circulation. When the mountains lie farther inland, however, pollutants may be trapped aloft when the mixed layer stabilizes in the late afternoon. As the nocturnal boundary layer forms over the coast in the evening, polluted mixed-layer air is effectively left behind in the inversion layer. In the Los Angeles Basin, the formation mechanism for elevated polluted layers is most similar to our cases with inland mountains.

Lu, Rong↗

Evaluating the Contribution of NASA Remotely-Sensed Data Sets on a Convection-Allowing Forecast Model

The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center is a collaborative partnership between NASA and operational forecasting partners, including a number of National Weather Service forecast offices. SPoRT provides real-time NASA products and capabilities to help its partners address specific operational forecast challenges. One challenge that forecasters face is using guidance from local and regional deterministic numerical models configured at convection-allowing resolution to help assess a variety of mesoscale/convective-scale phenomena such as sea-breezes, local wind circulations, and mesoscale convective weather potential on a given day. While guidance from convection-allowing models has proven valuable in many circumstances, the potential exists for model improvements by incorporating more representative land-water surface datasets, and by assimilating retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from hyper-spectral sounders. In order to help increase the accuracy of deterministic convection-allowing models, SPoRT produces real-time, 4-km CONUS forecasts using a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (hereafter SPoRT-WRF) that includes unique NASA products and capabilities including 4-km resolution soil initialization data from the Land Information System (LIS), 2-km resolution SPoRT SST composites over oceans and large water bodies, high-resolution real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composites derived from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, and retrieved temperature and moisture profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI). NCAR's Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package is used to generate statistics of model performance compared to in situ observations and rainfall analyses for three months during the summer of 2012 (June-August). Detailed analyses of specific severe weather outbreaks during the summer will be presented to assess the potential added-value of the SPoRT datasets and data assimilation methodology compared to a WRF configuration without the unique datasets and data assimilation.

Zavodsky, Bradley T.↗

Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model for Weather Support to the United States Space Program

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) conducted a year-long evaluation of NCEP's 29-km mesoscale Eta (meso-eta) weather prediction model in order to identify added value to forecast operations in support of the United States space program. The evaluation was stratified over warm and cool seasons and considered both objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective verification results generally indicate that meso-eta model point forecasts at selected stations exhibit minimal error growth in terms of RMS errors and are reasonably unbiased. Conversely, results from the subjective verification demonstrate that model forecasts of developing weather events such as thunderstorms, sea breezes, and cold fronts, are not always as accurate as implied by the seasonal error statistics. Sea-breeze case studies reveal that the model generates a dynamically-consistent thermally direct circulation over the Florida peninsula, although at a larger scale than observed. Thunderstorm verification reveals that the meso-eta model is capable of predicting areas of organized convection, particularly during the late afternoon hours but is not capable of forecasting individual thunderstorms. Verification of cold fronts during the cool season reveals that the model is capable of forecasting a majority of cold frontal passages through east central Florida to within +1-h of observed frontal passage.

Manobianco, John↗

Tracking Aerosol Convective Interactions Experiment (TRACER) Science Plan

Convective clouds play an important role in the Earth's climate system as a driver of large-scale circulations and a primary mechanism for the transport of heat, moisture, aerosols, and momentum throughout the troposphere. Despite their climatic importance, multi-scale models continue to have persistent biases produced by insufficient representation of convective clouds. This is the result of an incomplete understanding of key processes such as convective initiation, updraft and downdraft dynamics, cloud and precipitation microphysics, and aerosol-convection interactions.The Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation-Climate Initiative, an international research group dedicated to advancing understanding of aerosol impacts on clouds relevant to climate, has identified the Houston, Texas region as an optimal location for targeted studies of aerosol-convection interactions within frequently developing isolated deep convection. Houston lies within a humid subtropical climate regime, where onshore flow and sea-breeze convection interact with a range of aerosol conditions associated with Houston's urban and industrial emissions. Pilot studies have suggested that convective clouds in this region are potentially significantly impacted by the varying aerosol conditions.

Jensen, M.↗