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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario storyline discovery for complex multi-actor human-natural systems

This poster was presented at the AGU Fall Meeting 2024. Abstract:Scenario analysis is a useful tool for assessing the impacts of future conditions or alternative strategies. However, the common practice of focusing on a small number of predetermined scenarios can limit our understanding of key uncertainties, and fail to represent diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by simulating a wide range of possible futures and system perspectives. A challenge with these approaches is that they often involve large ensemble experiments which limit interpretability and usability. We recently introduced the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced ``forensic''), a scenario discovery framework that helps users identify scenario storylines that capture key system dynamics and as well as important outcomes. In this poster presentation, we present training materials to support the generalizable application of the framework to other multi-actor systems with complex dynamics. Specifically, we will present a step-by-step methodological typology of tools and methods that can be used to generate and classify plausible states of the world on key metrics and consequential dynamics. The typology will also discuss potential implications of these choices and their applicability to different systems.

Colorado River↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges

Global climate goals require a transition to a deeply decarbonized energy system. Meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement through countries' nationally determined contributions and long-term strategies represents a complex problem with consequences across multiple systems shrouded by deep uncertainty. Robust, large-ensemble methods and analyses mapping a wide range of possible future states of the world are needed to help policymakers design effective strategies to meet emissions reduction goals. This study contributes a scenario discovery analysis applied to a large ensemble of 5,760 model realizations generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. Eleven energy-related uncertainties are systematically varied, representing national mitigation pledges, institutional factors, and techno-economic parameters, among others. The resulting ensemble maps how uncertainties impact common energy system metrics used to characterize national and global pathways toward deep decarbonization. Results show globally consistent but regionally variable energy transitions as measured by multiple metrics, including electricity costs and stranded assets. Larger economies and developing regions experience more severe economic outcomes across a broad sampling of uncertainty. The scale of CO 2 removal globally determines how much the energy system can continue to emit, but the relative role of different CO 2 removal options in meeting decarbonization goals varies across regions. Previous studies characterizing uncertainty have typically focused on a few scenarios, and other large-ensemble work has not (to our knowledge) combined this framework with national emissions pledges or institutional factors. Our results underscore the value of large-ensemble scenario discovery for decision support as countries begin to design strategies to meet their goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

COZMIC. III. Cosmological Zoom-in Simulations of Self-interacting Dark Matter with Suppressed Initial Conditions

We present eight cosmological dark matter (DM)-only zoom-in simulations of a Milky Way–like system that include suppression of the linear matter power spectrum P(k), and/or velocity-dependent DM self-interactions, as the third installment of the COZMIC suite. We consider a model featuring a massive dark photon that mediates DM self-interactions and decays into massless dark fermions. The dark photon and dark fermions suppress linear matter perturbations, resulting in dark acoustic oscillations in P(k), which ultimately affect dwarf galaxy scales. The model also features a velocity-dependent elastic self-interaction between DM particles (SIDM), with a cross section that can alleviate small-scale structure anomalies. For the first time, our simulations test the impact of P(k) suppression on gravothermal evolution in an SIDM scenario that leads to core collapse in (sub)halos with present-day virial masses below ≈10 9 M ⊙ . In simulations with P(k) suppression and self-interactions, the lack of low-mass (sub)halos and the delayed growth of structure reduce the fraction of core-collapsed systems relative to SIDM simulations without P(k) suppression. In particular, P(k) suppression that saturates current warm DM constraints almost entirely erases core collapse in isolated halos. Models with less extreme P(k) suppression produce core collapse in ≈20% of subhalos and ≈5% of isolated halos above 10 8 M ⊙ , and also increase the abundance of extremely low-concentration isolated low-mass halos relative to SIDM. These results reveal a complex interplay between early and late-Universe DM physics, revealing new discovery scenarios in the context of upcoming small-scale structure measurements.

dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2025

Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework

The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. Here, we introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.

Decision-support method↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Progress in Simulated Water Well Performance on Mars

Recent studies of human Mars missions considered the impacts of an abundant supply of in-situ, accessible water on these mission scenarios. Discovery of exposed water ice scarps in Martian mid-latitudes has bolstered the evidence for massive amounts of almost pure water in buried deposits in regions considered candidates for these future human missions. This paper describes progress towards adapting a long-standing terrestrial technique for accessing and extracting water from these mid-latitude sources of ice. This approach relies on mechanical drills to access the ice through overlying debris. Once the ice layer has been reached, a technique known as a Rodriguez Well, or Rodwell, is used to melt the ice, store the resulting water in a subsurface cavity until needed, and then pump the water to the surface for use. Previous work by the authors utilized a computer simulation to predict the performance of a Martian Rodwell. This simulation was originally developed to predict performance in terrestrial Polar Regions. Whereas the basic approach is appropriate for a similar well on Mars, several parameters had been empirically derived and required experiments simulating the Martian environment to determine the values appropriate for a Martian Rodwell simulation. These experiments have now been completed and preliminary values have been determined for the empirical parameters. Test results are consistent with a dimensionless Sh(Ra) correlation developed by Bower and Saylor (2009) and based on lab tests of water evaporating from a pool into a large air chamber. They are also consistent with correlations derived by Ingersoll (1970) and by Hecht (2002), based on natural-convection heat transfer. Each of these earlier correlations found Sh~Ra1/3, with the 1/3rd power characteristic of large Ra where the boundary layer over the pool surface is turbulent. A somewhat surprising result was that this power-law was found to extend into a range of Ra where laminar flow would be expected. Another surprising result was found in that instead of following established correlations for natural-convection heat transfer over flat plates, the dimensionless heat-transfer rates (Nu) were much larger and approximately independent of Ra. This suggests that mass transfer from the pool enhances convective heat transfer, possibly by enhanced mixing in the boundary layer. Although this possibility has been suggested in the literature, if it is proven to be true under these conditions it could play an important role in the use of a Rodwell on Mars, where evaporative mass transfer is enhanced relative to terrestrial wells.

Human Mars Mission↗
DOE OSTI2024

Containers on Switches: A Cluster School Experience

Network switches, such as those from Arista and Mellanox, often have underutilized computational resources in the form of built-in processors and memory. By leveraging these untapped resources, we can optimize functionality and efficiency of computational cluster networks. Our research focuses on deploying containers directly onto these switches to execute various auxiliary tasks ranging from metric logging to system-wide management via post-boot configuration. By doing so, we can significantly enchance the capabilities of the cluster without the need for additional dedicated hardware. Our research involved five distinct scenarios where switch utilization could have a profound impact on HPC Clusters: run cloud-init services via link-local connection; configuring a Telegraf container to export metrics; deploying a caching proxy; creating a reconfigurable IPv6 DHCP/DNS provider for VLAN; and implementing a client detection with Magellan discovery. These scenarios were containerized with podman and docker, and tested both physically on the switch virtually on a QEMU VM both running SONiC OS. Testing and findings indicate that network switches can indeed be used for these scenarios. They offer a wide range of possibilities beyond these applications. They run as expected as containers on the switches, and although there were some minor issues, work-arounds were implemented. Overall, this is a positive result that can be further explored with more scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

TRAILS Output Files

Overview This data repository contains ZIP files that store compressed versions of the output of running the WaterPaths utility planning and management tool in the DU Re-Evaluation mode (to download the tool, please see this GitHub repository). The tool was used to simulate the six-utility North Carolina Research Triangle problem. Details on the contents of each ZIP file can be seen below. Data details Temporal range: Weekly data for 2,344 weeks from 2015 to 2060 (45 years). Spatial range: Six water utilities in the North Carolina Research Triangle region (0: Chapel Hil/OWASA, 1: Durham, 2: Cary, 3: Raleigh, 4: Pittsboro, and 5: Chatham) File types: CSV and OUT Different solutions available The solution numbers correspond to the different pathway strategies (henceforth referred to as "solutions") discussed in paper's main and supporting text (abstract and link to the paper here). They are as follows: Sol92: The Durham-focused pathway strategy Sol132: The Raleigh-focused pathway strategy Sol140: The regionally-robust pathway strategy Objectives files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Objectives_RDMXX_solsXX_to_XX.csv files. Each CSV file will consist of a row representing all the objective values for that specific solution, while every six columns represents the reliability, restriction frequency, infrastructure net present value ($ mil), peak financial cost, worst-case cost, and unit cost ($ per MG; in that order) for each of the six utilities. There will be 1,000 such files, denoting the performance of the six utilities across the 1,000 deeply uncertain states of the world (DU SOWs). Pathway files These files can be accessed by unzipping solXX_objectives_pathways.zip that contains 1,000 Pathways_sXX_RDMXX.out file. Each OUT corresponds to the set of infrastructure being triggered in a specific DU SOW, and each file will have the name file will consist of four tab-delimited columns that are described as follows: Realization: The realization in which an infrastructure options being triggered utility: The utility currently triggering infrastructure week: The week in which a specific infrastructure option is being triggered infra.: The infrastructure option being triggered If the OUT file contains only the header line, no infrastructure was triggered for that specific DU SOW. Policies files These files can be obtained by unzipping Policies.zip. Each of the 1,000 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly water use restriction policies for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: 0rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 0 (values between 0 and 1) 1rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 1 (values between 0 and 1) 2rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 2 (values between 0 and 1) 3rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 3 (values between 0 and 1) 4rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 4 (values between 0 and 1) 5rest_m: restriction multiplier for utility 5 (values between 0 and 1) 0transf: transfer volume for utility 0 (in MGD) 1transf: transfer volume for utility 1 (in MGD) 2transf: transfer volume for utility 2 (in MGD) 3transf: transfer volume for utility 3 (in MGD) 4transf: transfer volume for utility 4 (in MGD) 5transf: transfer volume for utility 5 (in MGD) Water Sources files These files can be obtained by unzipping WaterSources_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each water source for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xvolume: available water volume from source X (in MGD) Xs_area: surface area of source X (in ACF) Xdemand: demand drawn from a water source from source X (in MGD) Xup_spill: upstream spillage from source X (in MGD) Xww_inflow: wastewater inflow from source X (in MGD) Xcatch_inflow: upstream catchment inflow to source X (in MGD) Xevap: evaporation multiplier for source X (values between 0 and 1) Xds_spill: downstream spillage from source X (in MGD) X_Y_alloc_cap: the allocated capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) X_Y_alloc_dem: the allocated demand from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Xtrmt_alloc_Y: the allocated treatment capacity from source X to utility Y (values between 0 and 1) Utilities files These files can be obtained by unzipping Utilities_subset.zip. Each of the 100 CSV files within the unzipped folder will contain weekly state variables at each utility for all 1,000 hydroclimatic realizations within a specific DU SOW. The column structure is as follows: Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xcapacity: total storage capacity of utility X (in MG) Xnet_inf: : net inflow for all storage infrastructure for utility X (in MGD) Xst_rof: short term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_stor_rof: short-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xst_trmt_rof: short-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_rof: long-term ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_stor_rof: long-term storage ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xlt_trmt_rof: long-term treatment ROF for utility X (values between 0 and 1) Xrest_demand: restricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunrest_demand: unrestricted demand for utility X (in MGD) Xunfulf_demand: unfulfilled demand for utility X (in MGD) Xwastewater: wastewater return for utility X (in MGD) Xtreat_capacity: total treatment capacity for utility X (in MG) Xcont_fund: reserve (contingency) fund balance for utility X Xins_pout: insurance payout for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xins_price: insurance price for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xinfra_npv: infrastructure net present value for utility ($mil) Xst_vol: total available storage volume of utility X (in MG) Xdebt_serv: debt service for utility X (usually once per year if the infrastructure is triggered; % annual volumetric revenue) Xstor_vol: total stored volume (in MGD) Xobs_ann_dem: observed annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xproj_dem: projected annual demand for utility X (in MGD) Xpv_debt_serv: present value of debt service payments for utility X (% annual volumetric revenue) Xgross_rev: gross revenue for utility X ($mil) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

Artificial Intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extending Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Future Water Supply In-frastructure Scenarios: A Case Study of San Antonio, TX

Datasets supporting findings and visualization behind Okoye and McManamay (2025) Extending Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Future Water Supply Infrastructure Scenarios: A Case Study of San Antonio, TX. Environmental Research Communications, DOI: 10.57931/2563186 These datasets contains the results of a site selection analysis for municipal water supply planning across multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 1–5) and hard scenario classification of water systems in San Antonio, TX. It includes data at the resolution of individual surface water supply sources (COMIDs) and integrates a wide range of hydrologic, socioeconomic, infrastructural, and scenario-based planning variables. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions: Dataset_SSP1_SSP4.xlsx - Contains data used for site selection optimization under SSP1 to SSP4. This dataset was generated based on multi-indicator computations (e.g., WAI, WQI, ERI, WTC, WIC), scenario demand projections, and resource and spatial constraints, excluding new reservoir values. Dataset_SSP5.xlsx - Used for site optimization under SSP5. Unlike Dataset_SSP1_SSP4, this dataset includes new reservoir features with updated calculations of WAI, WTC, and WIC to reflect the added infrastructure and supply potential. hard_classification.xlsx - Provides the scenario classification output for each site. Includes both the initial scenario classification based on Euclidean Distance and adjusted classifications based on 30% change reduction BAU.zip - Zipped folder of .shp files showing spatially optimized water supply sites per SSP under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) water demand strategy LowGW.zip - Zipped folder of .shp files showing optimized site selections under the Low Groundwater strategy

geospatial↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying a Multisector Scenario Framework to Evaluate Past and Future Public Surface Water Supply Infrastructure Strategies in Texas

Datasets supporting the index model and scenario analysis used in evaluating surface water supply strategies across different water system types in Texas. These data underpin the scenario development and application of five key indicators: Water Availability Index (WAI), Water Quality Index (WQI), Energy Requirement Index (ERI), Water Treatment Cost (WTC), and Water Infrastructure Cost (WIC). The datasets are organized by system type—stream reaches (flowlines), waterbodies, and reservoirs—and include both raw and standardized index values. The integrated datasets also provide scenario classifications (original and adjusted) based on infrastructure and planning priorities, enabling comparison across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Additional strategy-level data are included to support evaluation of state-level new reservoir projects in relation to cost and availability tradeoffs. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions Folder: Index_model_database.zip Subfolder: Stream_reach.zip Fl_wf.csv, Fl_wq.csv, Fl_er.csv, Fl_wf_wtcUV.csv, Fl_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Fl_allfac_wic1.csv, Fl_allfac_wic2.csvDatasets for computing WAI, WQI, ERI, WTC, and WIC for surface water systems classified as stream reaches (flowlines). Subfolder: Waterbody.zip Wb_wf.csv, Wb_wq.csv, Wb_er.csv, Wb_wf_wtcUV.csv, Wb_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Wb_allfac_wic1.csv, Wb_allfac_wic2.csvEquivalent index model datasets for waterbodies, reflecting hydrologic and infrastructure attributes specific to impounded natural systems. Subfolder: Reservoir.zip Rs_wf.csv, Rs_wq.csv, Rs_er.csv, Rs_wf_wtcUV.csv, Rs_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Rs_allfac_wic1.csv, Rs_allfac_wic2.csvIndex model datasets specific to regulated reservoir systems, incorporating both resource indicators and cost parameters. Folder: Integrated data.zip combined_merged_data.csv, combined_merged_data_scenario.csvDatasets integrating index model indicators (both raw and scaled) with scenario classifications, including adjustments reflecting SSP-aligned transitions and planning shifts. Folder: Additional data.zip wai_supplystrat_wic_merged.csvCurated dataset capturing proposed major reservoir-based municipal water supply strategies in Texas. Integrates site-level planning data with estimated capital infrastructure costs and water availability scores for comparative assessment.

geospatial↗
NASA NTRS2005

Development, Integration and Utilization of Surface Nuclear Energy Sources for Exploration Missions

Throughout the past five decades numerous studies have identified nuclear energy as an enhancing or enabling technology for human surface exploration missions. Nuclear energy sources were used to provide electricity on Apollo missions 12, 14, 15, 16, and 17, and on the Mars Viking landers. Nuclear energy sources were used to provide heat on the Pathfinder; Spirit, and Discovery rovers. Scenarios have been proposed that utilize -1 kWe radioisotope systems for early missions, followed by fission systems in the 10 - 30 kWe range when energy requirements increase. A fission energy source unit size of approximately 150 kWt has been proposed based on previous lunar and Mars base architecture studies. Such a unit could support both early and advanced bases through a building block approach.

Houts, Michael G.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global Λ hyperon polarization in low-energy heavy ion collisions: A scenario without vorticity

Since its discovery, global polarization of the Λ hyperon in heavy-ion collisions has been firmly established and is widely attributed to the large vorticity generated in the rotating quark-gluon plasma. In contrast, nearly fifty years after the first observation of unexpectedly large transverse Λ polarization in unpolarized hadron collisions, its underlying mechanism remains an open and long-standing puzzle, despite being observed across a broad range of collision systems. Although these two phenomena exhibit notable similarities, they are generally regarded as arising from distinct physical origins. In this work, we propose a direct connection between Λ global polarization in heavy-ion collisions and the long-standing transverse polarization observed in unpolarized collision systems. We demonstrate that the alignment between the Λ production plane and the reaction plane, driven by directed flow, can transfer transverse polarization into the measured global polarization signal. Realistic Monte Carlo simulations of Au+Au collisions at √𝑠 NN =3 GeV indicate that this mechanism can generate a sizable global polarization, accounting for approximately 23% ±6% of the magnitude reported by the STAR Collaboration. Our results establish, for the first time, a quantitative link between these two well-known phenomena and have important implications for the interpretation of Λ global polarization measurements in low-energy heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Violent mergers can explain the inflated state of some of the fastest stars in the Galaxy

A significant number of hypervelocity stars with velocities between 1500 − 2500 km s −1 have recently been observed. The only plausible explanation so far is that they were produced through thermonuclear supernovae in white dwarf binaries. Since these stars are thought to be surviving donors of Type Ia supernovae, a surprising finding was that these stars are inflated, with radii an order of magnitude higher than expected for Roche-lobe-filling donors. Recent attempts at explaining them have combined 3D hydrodynamical supernova explosion simulations with 1D stellar modelling to explain the impact of supernova shocks on runaway white dwarfs. However, only the hottest and most compact of those runaway stars can so far marginally be reproduced by detailed models of runaways from supernova explosions. In this and a companion paper, we introduce a new AREPO simulation of two massive CO white dwarfs that explode via a violent merger. During the merger, the primary white dwarf ignites when the secondary is on its last orbit and plunging towards the primary. In the corresponding aftermath, the core of the secondary white dwarf of 0.16 M ⊙ remains bound, moving at a velocity of ∼2800 km s −1 . We mapped this object into MESA and show that this runaway star can explain the observations of two hypervelocity stars that were dubbed D6-1 and D6-3 based on their original discovery motivated by the D6 scenario, though the violent merger scenario presented here is somewhat distinct from the D6 scenario.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
NASA NTRS2005

Large-Scale NASA Science Applications on the Columbia Supercluster

Columbia, NASA's newest 61 teraflops supercomputer that became operational late last year, is a highly integrated Altix cluster of 10,240 processors, and was named to honor the crew of the Space Shuttle lost in early 2003. Constructed in just four months, Columbia increased NASA's computing capability ten-fold, and revitalized the Agency's high-end computing efforts. Significant cutting-edge science and engineering simulations in the areas of space and Earth sciences, as well as aeronautics and space operations, are already occurring on this largest operational Linux supercomputer, demonstrating its capacity and capability to accelerate NASA's space exploration vision. The presentation will describe how an integrated environment consisting not only of next-generation systems, but also modeling and simulation, high-speed networking, parallel performance optimization, and advanced data analysis and visualization, is being used to reduce design cycle time, accelerate scientific discovery, conduct parametric analysis of multiple scenarios, and enhance safety during the life cycle of NASA missions. The talk will conclude by discussing how NAS partnered with various NASA centers, other government agencies, computer industry, and academia, to create a national resource in large-scale modeling and simulation.

Brooks, Walter↗
NASA NTRS2006

Role of High-End Computing in Meeting NASA's Science and Engineering Challenges

High-End Computing (HEC) has always played a major role in meeting the modeling and simulation needs of various NASA missions. With NASA's newest 62 teraflops Columbia supercomputer, HEC is having an even greater impact within the Agency and beyond. Significant cutting-edge science and engineering simulations in the areas of space exploration, Shuttle operations, Earth sciences, and aeronautics research, are already occurring on Columbia, demonstrating its ability to accelerate NASA s exploration vision. The talk will describe how the integrated supercomputing production environment is being used to reduce design cycle time, accelerate scientific discovery, conduct parametric analysis of multiple scenarios, and enhance safety during the life cycle of NASA missions.

Biswas, Rupak↗
NASA NTRS2006

Role of High-End Computing in Meeting NASA's Science and Engineering Challenges

Two years ago, NASA was on the verge of dramatically increasing its HEC capability and capacity. With the 10,240-processor supercomputer, Columbia, now in production for 18 months, HEC has an even greater impact within the Agency and extending to partner institutions. Advanced science and engineering simulations in space exploration, shuttle operations, Earth sciences, and fundamental aeronautics research are occurring on Columbia, demonstrating its ability to accelerate NASA s exploration vision. This talk describes how the integrated production environment fostered at the NASA Advanced Supercomputing (NAS) facility at Ames Research Center is accelerating scientific discovery, achieving parametric analyses of multiple scenarios, and enhancing safety for NASA missions. We focus on Columbia s impact on two key engineering and science disciplines: Aerospace, and Climate. We also discuss future mission challenges and plans for NASA s next-generation HEC environment.

Biswas, Rupak↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prospects for Cross-Correlations of UHECR Events with Astrophysical Sources with Upcoming Space-Based Experiments

Ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) are the messengers of the most extreme physics in the cosmos; however, efforts to identify their origins have thus far been thwarted by the fact that they don’t point back to their sources. Using statistical studies cross-correlating UHECR arrival directions with astrophysical catalogs, the ground-based Pierre Auger Observatory has reported hints of a correlation with nearby starburst galaxies, as well as lower-significance correlations with other classes of astrophysical sources. Space-based UHECR experiments, such as POEMMA and ZAP, will monitor large interaction volumes on the Earth or the Moon. Within a few years of mission operation time, both missions will achieve unprecedented exposures at energies above40EeV across the entire sky. In this contribution, we present studies of the cross-correlation between UHECR event arrival directions and astrophysical catalogs as motivated by expectations for the detector performance for POEMMA and ZAP. We find that both POEMMA and ZAP will achieve 5σ discovery reach for many plausible astrophysical scenarios.

Tonia M Venters↗