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This report discusses selected methods, formulas, and inputs needed to make characterization and clearance decisions for Bacillus anthracis-contaminated and uncontaminated (or decontaminated) areas using a statistical sampling approach.
Due to the discretized nature of rain, the measurement of a continuous precipitation rate by disdrometers is subject to statistical sampling errors. Here, Monte Carlo simulations are employed to obtain the precision of rain detection and rate as a function of disdrometer collection area and compared with World Meteorological Organization guidelines for a 1 min sample interval and 95 % probability. To meet these requirements, simulations suggest that measurements of light rain with rain rates R ≤ 0.50 mm h-1 require a collection area of at least 6 cm × 6 cm, and for R = 1 mm h -1 , the minimum collection area is 13 cm × 13 cm. For R = 0.01 mm h -1 , a collection area of 2 cm × 2 cm is sufficient to detect a single drop. Simulations are compared with field measurements using a new hotplate device, the Differential Emissivity Imaging Disdrometer. The field results suggest an even larger plate may be required to meet the stated accuracy, likely in part due to non-Poissonian hydrometeor clustering.
A new statistical sampling sequence called Sampler has been developed for the SCALE code system. Random values for the input multigroup cross sections are determined by using the XSUSA program to sample uncertainty data provided in the SCALE covariance library. Using these samples, Sampler computes perturbed self-shielded cross sections and propagates the perturbed nuclear data through any specified SCALE analysis sequence, including those for criticality safety, lattice physics with depletion, and shielding calculations. Statistical analysis of the output distributions provides uncertainties and correlations in the desired responses.
A new statistical sampling sequence called Sampler has been developed for the SCALE code system. Random values for the input multigroup cross sections are determined by using the XSUSA program to sample uncertainty data provided in the SCALE covariance library. Using these samples, Sampler computes perturbed self-shielded cross sections and propagates the perturbed nuclear data through any specified SCALE analysis sequence, including those for criticality safety, lattice physics with depletion, and shielding calculations. Statistical analysis of the output distributions provides uncertainties and correlations in the desired responses. (authors)
In this paper, we review the impact of small sample statistics on detection thresholds and corresponding confidence levels (CLs) in high-contrast imaging at small angles. When looking close to the star, the number of resolution elements decreases rapidly toward small angles. This reduction of the number of degrees of freedom dramatically affects CLs and false alarm probabilities. Naively using the same ideal hypothesis and methods as for larger separations, which are well understood and commonly assume Gaussian noise, can yield up to one order of magnitude error in contrast estimations at fixed CL. The statistical penalty exponentially increases toward very small inner working angles. Even at 5-10 resolution elements from the star, false alarm probabilities can be significantly higher than expected. Here we present a rigorous statistical analysis that ensures robustness of the CL, but also imposes a substantial limitation on corresponding achievable detection limits (thus contrast) at small angles. This unavoidable fundamental statistical effect has a significant impact on current coronagraphic and future high-contrast imagers. Finally, the paper concludes with practical recommendations to account for small number statistics when computing the sensitivity to companions at small angles and when exploiting the results of direct imaging planet surveys.
We discuss the properties of subhalos in cluster-size halos, using a high-resolution statistical sample: the RHAPSODY simulations introduced in Wu et al. We demonstrate that the criteria applied to select subhalos have significant impact on the inferred properties of the sample, including the scatter in the number of subhalos, the correlation between the subhalo number and formation time, and the shape of subhalos' spatial distribution and velocity structure. We find that the number of subhalos, when selected using the peak maximum circular velocity in their histories (a property expected to be closely related to the galaxy luminosity), is uncorrelated with the formation time of the main halo. This is in contrast to the previously reported correlation from studies where subhalos are selected by the current maximum circular velocity; we show that this difference is a result of the tidal stripping of the subhalos. We also find that the dominance of the main halo and the subhalo mass fraction are strongly correlated with halo concentration and formation history. These correlations are important to take into account when interpreting results from cluster samples selected with different criteria. Our sample also includes a fossil cluster, which is presented separately and placed in the context of the rest of the sample.
Kernels, coated particles, and compacts will be manufactured to predefined specifications for irradiation in the AGR 5/6/7 experiments. Many tests will be performed for quality assurance and most of these tests correspond to criteria that have to be met with 95% confidence, based on random samples. This report describes the statistical acceptance testing methods and gives minimum sample sizes for kernels to achieve 95% confidence. Coated particles and compacts will be addressed in revisions to this report. The methods used for sample size determination are described in detail in INL/EXT 05 00349, Statistical Methods Handbook for Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Materials (Einerson 2005). The statistical approach is to collect a representative sample, apply an acceptance test to the sample, and accept or reject the product based on this test for each criterion. The criteria or “product specifications” are contained in SPC-1352, “AGR 5/6/7 Fuel Specification,” Revision 1 and are duplicated in this plan.
Here we present a public catalog of transients from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Bright Transient Survey, a magnitude-limited ( m < 19 mag in either the g or r filter) survey for extragalactic transients in the ZTF public stream. We introduce cuts on survey coverage, sky visibility around peak light, and other properties unconnected to the nature of the transient, and show that the resulting statistical sample is spectroscopically 97% complete at <18 mag, 93% complete at <18.5 mag, and 75% complete at <19 mag. We summarize the fundamental properties of this population, identifying distinct duration–luminosity correlations in a variety of supernova (SN) classes and associating the majority of fast optical transients with well-established spectroscopic SN types (primarily SN Ibn and II/IIb). We measure the Type Ia SN and core-collapse (CC) SN rates and luminosity functions, which show good consistency with recent work. About 7% of CC SNe explode in very low-luminosity galaxies ( M i > –16 mag), 10% in red-sequence galaxies, and 1% in massive ellipticals. We find no significant difference in the luminosity or color distributions between the host galaxies of SNe Type II and SNe Type Ib/c, suggesting that line-driven wind stripping does not play a major role in the loss of the hydrogen envelope from their progenitors. Future large-scale classification efforts with ZTF and other wide-area surveys will provide high-quality measurements of the rates, properties, and environments of all known types of optical transients and limits on the existence of theoretically predicted but as yet unobserved explosions.
Historically there has, at times, been large variability in measured uranium concentration amongst salt samples taken at the same time from the electrorefiner with relative standard deviations ranging from 0.59% up to a high of 114%. This has led to uncertainty in the actual uranium content of the salt. A series of surrogate experiments were performed with gadolinium to study the effects of Li2O, Gd2O3, and Gd metal additions to an LiCl-KCl-GdCl3 salt on the gadolinium content of the salt. These experiments showed no increase in salt sample variability following the additions of the mentioned species, indicating that the carryover of these species from the oxide reduction process may not lead to the historic variability issues.
Optimization of atomic coordinates and lattice parameters remains a significant challenge to the wide use of stochastic electronic structure methods such as quantum Monte Carlo (QMC). Measurements of the forces and stress tensor by these methods contain statistical errors, challenging conventional gradient-based numerical optimization methods that assume deterministic results. Additionally, forces are not yet available for some methods, wavefunctions, and basis sets and when available may be expensive to compute to sufficiently high statistical accuracy near energy minima, where the energy surfaces are flat. Here, we explore the use of Gaussian process based techniques to sample the energy surfaces and reduce sensitivity to the statistical nature of the problem. We utilize Latin hypercube sampling, with the number of sampled energy points scaling quadratically with the number of optimized parameters. Furthermore, we show these techniques may be successfully applied to systems consisting of tens of parameters, demonstrating QMC optimization of a benzene molecule starting from a randomly perturbed, broken symmetry geometry.
We present the first results from the RHAPSODY cluster re-simulation project: a sample of 96 'zoom-in' simulations of dark matter halos of 10{sup 14.8{+-}0.05} h {sup -1} M {sub Sun }, selected from a 1 h {sup -3} Gpc{sup 3} volume. This simulation suite is the first to resolve this many halos with {approx}5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 6} particles per halo in the cluster mass regime, allowing us to statistically characterize the distribution of and correlation between halo properties at fixed mass. We focus on the properties of the main halos and how they are affected by formation history, which we track back to z = 12, over five decades in mass. We give particular attention to the impact of the formation history on the density profiles of the halos. We find that the deviations from the Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW) model and the Einasto model depend on formation time. Late-forming halos tend to have considerable deviations from both models, partly due to the presence of massive subhalos, while early-forming halos deviate less but still significantly from the NFW model and are better described by the Einasto model. We find that the halo shapes depend only moderately on formation time. Departure from spherical symmetry impacts the density profiles through the anisotropic distribution of massive subhalos. Further evidence of the impact of subhalos is provided by analyzing the phase-space structure. A detailed analysis of the properties of the subhalo population in RHAPSODY is presented in a companion paper.
In recent years, wide-field sky surveys providing deep multiband imaging have presented a new path for indirectly characterizing the progenitor populations of core-collapse supernovae (SNe): systematic light-curve studies. We assemble a set of 76 grizy-band Type IIP SN light curves from Pan-STARRS1, obtained over a constant survey program of 4 yr and classified using both spectroscopy and machine-learning-based photometric techniques. We develop and apply a new Bayesian model for the full multiband evolution of each light curve in the sample. We find no evidence of a subpopulation of fast-declining explosions (historically referred to as ''Type IIL'' SNe). However, we identify a highly significant relation between the plateau phase decay rate and peak luminosity among our SNe IIP. These results argue in favor of a single parameter, likely determined by initial stellar mass, predominantly controlling the explosions of red supergiants. This relation could also be applied for SN cosmology, offering a standardizable candle good to an intrinsic scatter of ≲ 0.2 mag. We compare each light curve to physical models from hydrodynamic simulations to estimate progenitor initial masses and other properties of the Pan-STARRS1 Type IIP SN sample. We show that correction of systematic discrepancies between modeled and observed SN IIP light-curve properties and an expanded grid of progenitor properties are needed to enable robust progenitor inferences from multiband light-curve samples of this kind. This work will serve as a pathfinder for photometric studies of core-collapse SNe to be conducted through future wide-field transient searches.
Many galaxies display clear bulges and discs, and understanding how these components form is a vital step towards understanding how the galaxy has evolved into what we see today. The BUDDI-MaNGA project aims to study galaxy evolution and morphological transformations through the star-formation histories of the bulges and discs. We have applied our buddi software to galaxies from the MaNGA Survey in the SDSS DR15 in order to isolate their bulge and disc spectra, from which we derived their stellar populations. To date, this work provides the largest sample of clean bulge and disc spectra extracted from IFU datacubes using the galaxies light profile information, and will form the basis for a series of papers aiming to answer open questions on how galaxies have formed and evolved, and the role of their individual structures. Here this paper presents an introduction to the project, including an overview of these fits, a characterization of the sample, and a series of tests on the fits to ensure reliability.
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In this work, we present the Stage II results from the ongoing Satellites Around Galactic Analogs (SAGA) Survey. Upon completion, the SAGA Survey will spectroscopically identify satellite galaxies brighter than M r,o = -12.3 around 100 Milky Way (MW) analogs at z ~ 0.01. In Stage II, we have more than quadrupled the sample size of Stage I, delivering results from 127 satellites around 36 MW analogs with an improved target selection strategy and deep photometric imaging catalogs from the Dark Energy Survey and the Legacy Surveys. We have obtained 25,372 galaxy redshifts, peaking around z = 0.2. These data significantly increase spectroscopic coverage for very low redshift objects in 17 < r o < 20.75 around SAGA hosts, creating a unique data set that places the Local Group in a wider context. The number of confirmed satellites per system ranges from zero to nine and correlates with host galaxy and brightest satellite luminosities. We find that the number and luminosities of MW satellites are consistent with being drawn from the same underlying distribution as SAGA systems. The majority of confirmed SAGA satellites are star-forming, and the quenched fraction increases as satellite stellar mass and projected radius from the host galaxy decrease. Overall, the satellite quenched fraction among SAGA systems is lower than that in the Local Group. We compare the luminosity functions and radial distributions of SAGA satellites with theoretical predictions based on cold dark matter simulations and an empirical galaxy–halo connection model and find that the results are broadly in agreement.
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