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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

ChatGPT and Other Large Language Models for Cybersecurity of Smart Grid Applications

Cybersecurity breaches targeting electrical substations constitute a significant threat to the integrity of the power grid, necessitating comprehensive defense and mitigation strategies. Any anomaly in information and communication technology (ICT) should be detected for secure communications between devices in digital substations. This paper proposes large language models (LLMs), e.g., ChatGPT, for the cybersecurity of IEC 61850-based communications. Multi-cast messages such as generic object oriented system events (GOOSE) and sampled values (SV) are used for case studies. The proposed LLM-based cybersecurity framework includes, for the first time, data pre-processing of communication systems and human-in-the-loop (HITL) training (considering the cybersecurity guidelines recommended by humans). The results show a comparative analysis of detected anomaly data carried out based on the performance evaluation metrics for different LLMs. A hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed is used to generate and extract a dataset of IEC 61850 communications.

ChatGPT↗
DOE OSTI2022

The need for speed – Burnup determination of spent nuclear fuel

Here we present the application of a novel analytical approach for high-speed evaluation of burn-up in spent nuclear fuel. This automated online separation–direct analysis method, which simultaneously measures the isotopic compositions and concentrations of Nd, Pu, and U using isotope dilution-inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, enables the determination of burnup in as little as 4.5 h per sample with expanded uncertainties as low as 1.2% using as little as 1µg of fuel. We compare the determined burn-up values, sample requirements, and analysis times with an ultra-high precision, in-house developed, methodology which employs multiple analytical techniques to measure the isotopic compositions and concentrations of Nd, Pu, and U yielding burn-up values with expanded uncertainties as low as 0.49% at the 95% confidence level, the lowest reported to date.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Micro- to nano-scale areal heterogeneity in pore structure and mineral compositions of a sub-decimeter-sized Eagle Ford Shale

Mineral and organic matter compositions & pore structures of fine-grained shale influence reservoir properties. To improve the understanding of spatial heterogeneity in core-sized samples, methods of microscale X-ray fluorescence (μXRF) mapping, (ultra-) small-angle x-ray scattering [(U)SAXS] and wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS) have been used to determine elemental, pore-structure variations at scales up to ~10 cm on two samples prepared at circular and rectangular orientations from a piece of Eagle Ford Shale outcrop in South Texas, USA. In addition, thin section petrography and field emission-scanning electron microscopy observations, X-ray diffraction (XRD), total organic carbon, and pyrolysis were utilized to investigate the potential spatial heterogeneity of pore types, mineral and organic matter compositions for cm-sized samples at both orientations. Overall, the siliceous-carbonate mineral contents in these two samples (8 cm×8 cm×0.08 cm and 5 cm × 8 cm × 0.08 cm, in terms of width×length×thickness) of carbonate-rich Eagle Ford Shale vary between laminations at mm scales. For the circular sample, porosity and specific surface area (SSA) variations range from 0.82 to 3.04% and 1.51 to 14.1 m 2 /g, respectively. For the rectangular sample, values for porosity and SSA vary from 0.93 to 2.50% and 3.95 to 10.8 m 2 /g. By analyzing six selected sub-samples on each of two samples with (U)SAXS and XRD techniques, nm-sized pores are mainly interparticle ones in the higher calcite regions, where the porosity is also relatively lower, while the lower calcite regions consist of both interparticle and intraparticle pore types with higher porosity. Lastly, the μXRF and (U)SAXS mappings are combined to generate porosity distribution maps to provide more insights about sample heterogeneity related to the laminations and fractures at our observational scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of source-location algorithms for atmospheric samplers

Numerous algorithms have been developed to determine the source characteristics for an atmospheric release, e.g., (Bieringer et al., 2017). This study compares three models that have been applied to the data collected by the International Monitoring System operated by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Preparatory Commission to estimate source event parameters. Each model uses a different approach to estimate the parameters. A deterministic model uses a possible source region (PSR) approach (Ringbom et al., 2014) that is based on the correlation between predicted and measured sample values. An unnamed model developed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (herein called BAYEST) uses a Bayesian formulation (Eslinger et al., 2019; Eslinger et al., 2020; Eslinger and Schrom, 2016). The FREAR model uses a different Bayesian formulation (De Meutter and Hoffman, 2020; De Meutter et al., 2021; Pieter De Meutter, 2021). The performance of the three source-location models is evaluated with 100 synthetic release cases for the single xenon isotope, 133 Xe. The release cases resulted in detections in a fictitious network with 120 noble gas samplers. All three source-location models use the same sampling data. The two Bayesian models yield more accurate location estimates than the deterministic PSR model, with FREAR having slightly better location performance than BAYEST. Samplers with collection periods of 3, 6, 8, 12, and 24-h were used. Results from BAYEST show that location accuracy improves with each reduction in sample collection length. The BAYEST model is slightly better for estimating the start time of the release. The PSR model has about the same spread in start times as the FREAR model, but the PSR results have a better average start time. The Bayesian source-location algorithms give more accurate results than the PSR approach, and provide release magnitude estimates, while the base PSR model does not estimate the release magnitude. This investigation demonstrates that a reasonably dense sampling grid will sometimes yield poor location and time estimates regardless of the model. The poor estimates generally coincide with cases where there is a much larger distance between the release point and the first detecting sampler than the average sampler spacing.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A proposed method for addressing large unphysical uncertainties in mubar

Mubar uncertainties in Section MF 34 MT 2 of ENDF/B-VIII.0 data are sometimes too large. Physical limitations of the bounds of mubar limit the maximum uncertainty to be < 1.0 and usually $\ll$ 1.0. Two ad hoc methods are proposed to artificially constrain the randomly sampled values of mubar to allowable values. The application of NJOY’s mubar covariance matrix to the “sandwich rule” is also discussed and a consistent way to apply sensitivity coefficients is described. Mubar uncertainties for the Jezebel k eff were found to be 156 pcm – a value comparable to other evaluated cross section uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cybersecurity Enhancement in Digital Substations: Hidden Markov Model-Based Smart Cyber Switching and Threat Response

The rising incidence of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructure and power grids poses significant threats to the stability and reliability of electrical substations, with potentially devastating consequences such as extended blackouts. This paper introduces an advanced cybersecurity framework aimed at safeguarding IEC 61850-based substations through the integration of software-defined networking (SDN) and digital twin (DT) technologies. The proposed DT-based framework employs smart cyber switching (SCS) for proactive threat mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for swift system restoration, thereby maintaining continuous operational integrity and robust cybersecurity defenses. Central to this framework is the adaptive port controller (APC), which enables dynamic port management to adapt to evolving threats, and an intrusion detection system (IDS) designed to detect and neutralize malicious attacks on IEC 61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented substation event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. Further, novel predictive intrusion detection and response (PIDR) algorithm is implemented on a digital substation (DS) to predict the best route to be taken by the attacker. The efficacy of these comprehensive cybersecurity frameworks is validated through rigorous simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, showcasing the system’s ability to sustain substation operations amidst cyber-attacks.

Digital substation↗
DOE OSTI2026

SDN-Based Smart Cyber Switching (SCS) for Cyber Restoration of a Digital Substation

In recent years, critical infrastructure and power grids have increasingly been targets of cyber-attacks, causing widespread and extended blackouts. Digital substations are particularly vulnerable to such cyber incursions, jeopardizing grid stability. This paper addresses these risks by proposing a cybersecurity framework that leverages software-defined networking (SDN) to bolster the resilience of substations based on the IEC- 61850 standard. The research introduces a strategy involving smart cyber switching (SCS) for mitigation and concurrent intelligent electronic device (CIED) for restoration, ensuring ongoing operational integrity and cybersecurity within a substation. The SCS framework improves the physical network’s behavior (i.e., leveraging commercial SDN capabilities) by incorporating an adaptive port controller (APC) module for dynamic port management and an intrusion detection system (IDS) to detect and counteract malicious IEC-61850-based sampled value (SV) and generic object-oriented system event (GOOSE) messages within the substation’s communication network. The framework’s effectiveness is validated through comprehensive simulations and a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed, demonstrating its ability to sustain substation operations during cyber-attacks and significantly improve the overall resilience of the power grid.

Liu, Chen-Ching (ORCID:0000000289417958)↗
DOE OSTI2023

EmSense: A High-Resolution Emulated Sensor for Experiments with the Smart Grid and Distributed Ledger Technology

This work involves the development of a device - EmSense (“Emulated Sensor”) - that emulates a high-resolution sensor for a power grid. The device collects raw current and voltage sensor data which derive from ORNL's signature library. This library is a dataset that ORNL curates from many different sources that include power systems from various utilities. The EmSense packages the data from the library in the form of IEC 61850 Sampled Value (SV) packets and then broadcasts these SV packets on the network. In another mode, EmSense can generate artificial sinusoidal data that appears as waveforms for voltage and current signals. EmSense has an internal algorithm for determining the period of a signal based on the data so that the period can be specified as a variable in the IEC 61850 packets. The purpose of EmSense is to allow for experimentation with the Dark Net Infrastructure where a variety of power line sensors must be represented along with their typical communication traffic. The EmSense device was developed in coordination with the software for receiving and processing the packets in the Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) framework of the DarkNet Project. This receiving software must have a methodology for dealing with information of high velocity, variety, and volume. Experimenting with EmSense facilitates the development of such software. The results showed that the DLT framework and the trust-anchoring approach managed to process a large flow of traffic even with up to six instances of EmSense device broadcasting data. This was achieved without overfilling packet queues in the memory of the actual hardware of the DLT devices or causing the Central Processing Unit (CPU) of the hardware to be overwhelmed. The DLTs were also able to store the data in a compact and useful form for later analysis and archival purposes.

Werth, Aaron↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Iterative Response-Surface-Based Approach for Chance-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow Considering Dependent Uncertainty

A modern power system is characterized by a stochastic variation of the loads and an increasing penetration of renewable energy generation, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties bring formidable challenges to the power system planning and operation process. To address these challenges, we propose a cost-effective, iterative response-surface-based approach for the chance-constrained AC optimal power-flow problem that aims to ensure the secure operation of the power systems considering dependent uncertainties. Starting from a stochastic-sampling-based framework, we first utilize the copula theory to simulate the dependence among multivariate uncertain inputs. Then, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose, instead of using the original complicated power-system model, to rely on a polynomial-chaos-based response surface. This response surface allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming power-system model at arbitrary distributed sampled values with a negligible computational cost. This further enables us to efficiently conduct an online stochastic testing for the system states that not only screens out the statistical active constraints, but also assists in a better design of the tightened bounds without using any Gaussian or symmetric assumption. Finally, an iterative procedure is executed to fine-tune the optimal solution that better satisfies a predefined probability. The simulations conducted in multiple test systems demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Uncertainty in Stochastic Economic Dispatch considering Wind Power Penetration

The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To estimate the uncertainty in this stochastic economic dispatch problem for forecasting purposes, the conventional Monte-Carlo method is prohibitively time-consuming for practical applications. To overcome this problem, here we propose a novel Gaussian-process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Facing high-dimensional real-world data representing the correlated uncertainties from wind generation, a manifold-learning-based Isomap algorithm is proposed to efficiently represent the low-dimensional hidden probabilistic structure of the data. In this low-dimensional latent space, with Latin hypercube sampling as the computer experimental design, a Gaussian-process emulator is used, for the first time, to serve as a nonparametric, surrogate model for the original complicated stochastic economic dispatch model. This reduced-order representative allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus test system reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

East River Watershed Stable Water Isotope Data in Precipitation, Snowpack and Snowmelt 2016-2020

Stable water isotopes (d18O, d2H and d-excess) are important tracers in hydrologic research to understand water partitioning between vegetation, groundwater, and runoff but are rarely applied to large watersheds with persistent snowpack and complex topopgraphy. Data were collected for the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area supported by the U.S Department of Energy in the East River, CO Hydrologic Unit Code (140200010) with limited data also collected in adjacent watersheds Ohio Creek and Taylor River. Data are provided in csv and includes isotopic information for precipitation (years 2014-2016), snowmelt (years 2016-2017) and snowpits (years 2016-2020). Snowpit data contain depth resolved information at 10 cm intervals for density, snow water equivalent (SWE) and stable water isotopes. Bulk isotopic data for 86 snowpits contain depth, SWE, density and SWE-weighted isotope values. Sampling locations and elevations are provided within the data files, while kmz files are provided to view sampling locations using Google Earth software.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Pilot Demonstration of an Attestation and Anomaly Detection Framework using Distributed Ledger Technology for Power Grid Infrastructure

This report summarizes the design and pilot demonstration of a framework called Grid Guard that was created to provide increased data and device trustworthiness to electric grid devices by leveraging distributed ledger technology (DLT), specifically blockchain. Grid Guard contains a combination of core cryptographic methods such as the secure hash algorithm (SHA), and asymmetric cryptography, private permissioned blockchain, baselining configuration data, consensus algorithm (Raft) and the Hyperledger Fabric (HLF) framework. The system implements a low energy, fast, and robust enhancement to system trustworthiness within and across electric grid systems such as substations, control centers and metering infrastructures. Blockchain is a distributed database structured that provides a practically unalterable (immutable) timeline of stored transactions. By relying on hashing and the Raft consensus algorithm, if an entity tries to illegitimately alter a record at one instance of the database the other ledger nodes are not altered. They work to cross-reference each other and easily locate any incorrectly added data and remove it. The bulk raw data is stored in an off-chain storage (outside of the blockchain ledger) and a hash of this baseline data is stored in the Blockchain ledger via hashing windows of time-series and configuration data, after aggregation and filtering. The bulk off-chain data repository is then considered to be trust-anchored using the hashes stored in the blockchain. To secure the electric grid testbed devices and data, device configuration baselines were compared to those baselines that had been previously stored in the ledger. Statistical baselines for device configurations, network communication patterns, and high-speed sensor data are calculated and then stored off-chain and hashes stored in the ledger. Measurements such as three-phase voltage and current, frequency, breaker status, protection scheme settings, network configuration settings (and other device configuration artifacts) and network traffic features (packet interarrival times) are compared every minute or other selected time windows. During phase 1 of the Grid Guard DLT project different DLT technologies were studies, and an assessment was performed on DLT technology vulnerabilities, uses, and key characteristics. DLT consensus protocols were studies (e.g., RAFT, named after Reliable, Replicated, Redundant, And Fault-Tolerant). Also, cryptography, public, private and permissioned or permissionless systems were assessed. Grid Guard implements a permissioned private DLT. Consensus algorithm selection and choice of DLT implementation depended heavily on the use-case. For this use-case, parameters were selected to measure performance and existing tools for assessment. Benchmarking was performed theoretically and practically. During phase 2 hashed transactions/blocks were inserted into the ledger every second. During phase 2 of the Grid Guard DLT project, a prototype framework was developed and demonstrated for attestation of critical substation devices and data using precision timing systems that use PTP and IRIG-B protocols) on a testbed of operational devices that emulated a distribution substation, control center, and power metering infrastructure using real Operational Technology (OT). The testbed includes OT devices such as protective relays, human machine interfaces (HMI), and power meters. To determine when to collect and compare system and network baselines, an initial examination of an anomaly detection capability to identify malicious manipulation of data streams was conducted. The resulting anomaly detection was demonstrated in a set of experiments and leveraged to trigger device artifact attestation checks. Attestation checks occur against device configuration baselines when compared with the immutable blockchain-stored baselines, which provided a cryptographically supported means by which to store baselines. The electrical substation-grid testbed was created to test the Grid Guard framework. The testbed emulates the operations of a portion of a power grid and SCADA systems as closely as possible. The testbed integrates real protocols, mainly IEC 61850 standard protocols, such as the Sampled Value (SV) and the GOOSE protocols. The testbed also supports DNP3 and other layer 2 and layer 3 protocols such as Telnet, SSH, SFTP/FTP and other proprietary protocols needed to connect to industrial control system equipment. The testbed emulates real power conditions using the OpalRT hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) device which can create fault situations that cannot be easily tested on real systems. The electrical substation-grid testbed was created using real measurement, communication, and protection devices that electrical utilities commonly use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Provable bounds for noise-free expectation values computed from noisy samples

Quantum computing has emerged as a powerful computational paradigm capable of solving problems beyond the reach of classical computers. However, today’s quantum computers are noisy, posing challenges to obtaining accurate results. Here, we explore the impact of noise on quantum computing, focusing on the challenges in sampling bit strings from noisy quantum computers and the implications for optimization and machine learning. We formally quantify the sampling overhead to extract good samples from noisy quantum computers and relate it to the layer fidelity, a metric to determine the performance of noisy quantum processors. Further, we show how this allows us to use the conditional value at risk of noisy samples to determine provable bounds on noise-free expectation values. We discuss how to leverage these bounds for different algorithms and demonstrate our findings through experiments on real quantum computers involving up to 127 qubits. The results show strong alignment with theoretical predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of sample size on the maximum value distribution of fatigue driving forces in metals and alloys

An analytical framework is presented to predict the effects of sample size on the maximum value distribution (MVD) of the driving forces for fatigue crack formation in metals and alloys. The distribution of the maximum driving force for fatigue crack formation over the domain follows the generalized extreme value theory in the limit as the domain size increases to infinity. Here, a simulation-based analysis of microstructure influences on fatigue resistance for polycrystalline metals and alloys is very costly, and reaching those limits is intractable. This work models the MVD of Fatigue Indicator Parameters (FIPs), which serve as surrogate measures for the driving force for fatigue crack formation, at finite sample sizes prior to their convergence to a limiting extreme value distribution. Large-scale crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) simulations of FCC Al 7075-T6 with microstructure realizations of various sizes are incorporated to calibrate and evaluate the developed framework, and a total of ∼6.5 million grains of Al 7075-T6 are examined. The calibrated analytical solution agrees well with the brute force Monte Carlo simulation results extracted from the CPFE simulations. Furthermore, the developed formulation can predict the MVD of FIPs for different sample sizes using a size-dependent parameter, and it is capable of accurately extrapolating the MVD of FIPs for much larger microstructure sample sizes than the size used for its calibration.

Crystal plasticity↗
DOE OSTI2023

Alkali element (Li, Na, K, and Rb) doping of Cu 2 BaGe 1– x Sn x Se 4 films

Cu 2 BaGe 1–x Sn x Se 4 (CBGTSe) represents an exemplary system within the I 2 –II–IV–X 4 (I = Ag, Cu; II = Sr, Ba; IV = Ge, Sn; X = S, Se) family, which has been introduced to target suppressing the formation of anti-site defects and associated defect clusters within the analogous kesterite Cu 2 ZnSn(S,Se) 4 . Previous studies on CBGTSe films showed relatively low hole carrier densities (<10 13 cm –3 ), which may limit their corresponding application as active layers within photovoltaic, thermoelectric, and optoelectronic devices. In the current study, we explore the incorporation of alkali elements (Li, Na, K, and Rb) into CBGTSe films as prospective dopants to address the low hole carrier density and to allow for property tunability. First, incorporation of Na-, K-, and Rb-dopants noticeably increases the average grain sizes for CBGTSe films, while the Li-dopant has relatively limited impact. In addition, the alkali-dopants lead to a 1 to 3 orders of magnitude increase in hole carrier density (up to 10 15 cm –3 is achieved using K doping, corresponding to the alkali element yielding the highest doping efficiency). Here, the alkali-doped films show slightly lower minority carrier lifetimes and carrier mobility values than the non-doped samples, and these values are found to follow an approximate universal dependence with carrier density (also considering data derived from other previously explored vacuum-deposited I 2 –II–IV–X 4 chalcogenide films). As alkali-doping can significantly increase carrier densities, alkali elements can be considered useful p-type dopants for CBGTSe, as well as prospectively for other analogous I 2 –II–IV–X 4 systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Femto-second Laser’s Enabling New Length Scale Fabrications for Rapid Post Irradiation Examination of Materials: Concluding LDRD Project Poster

Mechanical testing campaigns are required to qualify materials for advanced reactor conditions, yet economical and safety limitations restrict the number of standardized mechanical tests that can be performed. Reducing the size of the sample is one approach to addressing these challenges and to accelerating testing. Previous research has shown that smaller mechanical test samples produce higher yield and ultimate stress values compared to values measured from standard sample sizes: the “smaller is stronger” effect. Specimens used in accelerated material testing campaigns must reflect bulk material performance to enable engineering scale material property measurement. The objective of this research project was to determine if engineering scale mechanical behavior—the yield stress—could be measured with micro-tensile test samples smaller than traditional standard testing geometries. The relationship between yield stress and sample size was explored with two different nuclear-relevant structural materials: Zircaloy-4 and tungsten. Mechanical testing of both metals demonstrated decreasing yield stress values with increasing sample gauge size across three different sizes. Yield stress values from the largest gauge size, fabricated with a femto-second laser ablation system, approach bulk material yield stress values reported in published literature. Preliminary analysis of the tungsten samples indicates the yield stress value depends on the grain characteristics within the gauge section, in addition to the gauge size. Accompanying modeling efforts, including response surface generation and crystal plasticity approaches, further demonstrated that the size of the sample gauge section alone cannot explain the change in yield stress values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity and Uncertainty of the IFR-1 BISON Benchmark

The fuel performance code BISON is being used to evaluate metallic fuel for a new fast-spectrum test reactor called the Versatile Test Reactor, which is being considered by the US Department of Energy. To quantify the accuracy of BISON predictions, researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have been developing a series of benchmarks based on legacy metallic fuel experiments. As part of this effort, the sensitivity of BISON predictions to variations in model inputs and the uncertainties associated with BISON predictions must be established. This report summarizes efforts to perform a comprehensive sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a benchmark based on the IFR-1 experiment. For the SA, at least one input was chosen from every BISON model and physics module used in the benchmark. The inputs were varied individually in a series of BISON simulations. The resulting variations in benchmark predictions were normalized to calculate sensitivities. The strongest sensitivities were identified and used to inform input selections for the UQ. The UQ was performed using the Monte Carlo UQ method. A literature review was conducted to estimate uncertainty distributions for the selected inputs, and values were sampled randomly from each distribution in a series of BISON simulations. Variations in the benchmark predictions were used to estimate uncertainty distributions and confidence intervals. It was found that nearly 100% of benchmark predictions matched the corresponding legacy values within the confidence intervals. However, this is at least partially because of the wide confidence intervals associated with the benchmark predictions. The uncertainty contributions of assumptions in the benchmark, experimental uncertainties, and BISON models were quantified. Some analysis was performed to identify inputs that contributed to the uncertainties. Finally, recommendations are made for future benchmark development and future BISON development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗