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At least 19 records

CONTROLLED END GAS AUTO IGNITION WITH EXHAUST GAS RECIRCULATION ON A STOICHIOMETRIC, SPARK IGNITED, NATURAL GAS ENGINE

The goal of this study is to address fundamental limitations to achieving diesel-like efficiencies in heavy duty on-highway natural gas (NG) engines. Engine knock and misfire are barriers to pathways leading to higher efficiency engines. This study explores enabling technologies for development of high efficiency stoichiometric, spark ignited, natural gas engines. These include design strategies for fast and stable combustion and higher dilution tolerance. Additionally, advanced control methodologies are implemented to maintain stable operation between knock and misfire limits. To implement controlled end- gas autoignition (C-EGAI) strategies a Combustion Intensity Metric (CIM) is used for ignition control with the use of a Woodward large engine control module (LECM). Tests were conducted using a single cylinder, variable compression ratio, cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine with baseline conditions of 900 RPM, engine load of 800 kPa indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP), and stoichiometric air/fuel ratio. Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) tests were performed using a custom EGR system that simulates a high pressure EGR loop and can provide a range of EGR rates from 0 to 40%. The experimental measurements included the variance of EGR rate, compression ratio, engine speed, IMEP, and CIM. These five variables were optimized through a Modified Box- Benken design Surface Response Method (RSM), with brake efficiency as the merit function. A positive linear correlation between CIM and f-EGAI was identified. Consequently, CIM was used as the feedback control parameter for C-EGAI. As such, implementation of C-EGAI effectively allowed for the utilization of high EGR rates and CRs, controlling combustion between a narrower gap between knock and lean limits. The change from fixed to parametric ignition timing with CIM targeted select values of f-EGAI with an average coefficient of variance (COV) of peak pressure of 5.4. The RSM efficiency optimization concluded with operational conditions of 1080 RPM, 1150 kPa IMEP, 10.55:1 compression ratio, and 17.8% EGR rate with a brake efficiency of 21.3%. At this optimized point of peak performance, a f-EGAI for C-EGAI was observed at 34.1% heat release due to auto ignition, a knock onset crank angle value of 10.3° aTDC and ignition timing of - 24.7° aTDC. This work has demonstrated that combustion at a fixed f-EGAI can be maintained through advanced ignition control of CIM without experiencing heavy knocking events.

Cooperative Fuel Research Engine, Auto Ignition, E↗

A comparison of surrogate constitutive models for viscoplastic creep simulation of HT-9 steel

Mechanistic microstructure-informed constitutive models for the mechanical response of polycrystals are a cornerstone of computational materials science. However, as these models become increasingly more complex – often involving coupled differential equations describing the effect of specific deformation modes – their associated computational costs can become prohibitive, particularly in optimization or uncertainty quantification tasks that require numerous model evaluations. To address this challenge, surrogate constitutive models that balance accuracy and computational efficiency are highly desirable. Data-driven surrogate models, that learn the constitutive relation directly from data, have emerged as a promising solution. In this work, we develop two local surrogate models for the viscoplastic response of a steel: a piecewise response surface method and a mixture of experts model. These surrogates are designed to adapt to complex material behavior, which may vary with material parameters or operating conditions. The surrogate constitutive models are applied to creep simulations of HT-9 steel, an alloy of considerable interest to the nuclear energy sector due to its high tolerance to radiation damage, using training data generated from viscoplastic self-consistent (VPSC) simulations. In conclusion, we define a set of test metrics to numerically assess the accuracy of our surrogate models for predicting viscoplastic material behavior, and show that the mixture of experts model outperforms the piecewise response surface method in terms of accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Risk Assessment and Management Workflow—An Example of the Southwest Regional Partnership

This paper summarizes the risk assessment and management workflow developed and applied to the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) Phase III Demonstration Project. The risk assessment and management workflow consists of six primary tasks, including management planning, identification, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, response planning, and monitoring. Within the workflow, the SWP assembled and iteratively updated a risk registry that identifies risks for all major activities of the project. Risk elements were ranked with respect to the potential impact to the project and the likelihood of occurrence. Both qualitative and quantitative risk analyses were performed. To graphically depict the interactions among risk elements and help building risk scenarios, process influence diagrams were used to represent the interactions. The SWP employed quantitative methods of risk analysis including Response Surface Method (RSM), Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), and the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) toolset. The SWP also developed risk response planning and performed risk control and monitoring to prevent the risks from affecting the project and ensure the effectiveness of risk management. As part of risk control and monitoring, existing and new risks have been tracked and the response plan was subsequently evaluated. Findings and lessons learned from the SWP’s risk assessment and management efforts will provide valuable information for other commercial geological CO2 storage projects.

Lee, Si-Yong↗

A Study on Surface Texture and Wettability of Femtosecond Laser Treated Aluminum Alloys

This research aims to study the effects of femtosecond laser treatment on surface texture and wettability properties. The first portion of this research studies 2024-T3 aluminum alloy concerning surface texture (e.g., roughness), wettability, and surface free energy. SEM images help aid the researchers in detecting minuscule changes in surface texture. Profilometry extracts topographical data from the surface. A contact angle goniometer measures contact angle, which follows the sessile drop method. Owens, Wendt, Rabel, and Kaelble's method calculates the surface free energy in conjunction with the contact angle. Femtosecond laser modification produces relatively uniform surface morphology at the macroscale. When looking at the microscale, surface morphology differs depending on the interplay between material melting and self-assembly, where the surface becomes rougher after laser treatment. Contact angle results show that all but the control sample and sample 7 exhibit hydrophobic behavior, i.e., contact angle >90°, with Sample 1 having the most significant angle of 115°. The effects of laser parameters on surface energy is apparent. More work is needed to establish correlations among these three quantities: contact angle, surface energy, and laser parameters. The second portion of this research studies aluminum alloy 6061 as the subject material with the primary goal of creating a superhydrophobic surface. A central composite design creates the laser surface texturing design of experiments. SEM images help aid the researchers in detecting minuscule changes in surface texture. A 3D optical profiler extracts topographical data from the surface. The sessile drop method incorporates a contact angle goniometer to measure the contact angle. The response surface method builds a second-order polynomial model for the contact angle and obtains optimized parameters to maximize the contact angle. This research shows that laser surface texturing can generate a wide range of surface profiles and roughness values with geometric features ranging from hundreds of μm to submicron. All three laser parameters (pulse energy, pulse duration, repetition rate) affect surface roughness and contact angle to some degree. To quantify the relationship between the contact angle, pulse energy, and pulse repetition rate, a response surface model for Al 6061 is identified and used to find the optimal conditions of E=214 μJ, tp=10 ps, and fp=2427 Hz with a predicted maximum contact angle of 161°. A confirmation experiment produces a contact angle of 168°, in good agreement with the predicted value.

Angell, Dakota↗

Interlayer reinforcement of 3D printed concrete by the in-process deposition of U-nails

Highlights: • An in-process interlayer reinforcement approach for 3D concrete printing was proposed through the concurrent deposition of U-nails. • Significant strength and toughness improvement was achieved for U-nail reinforced 3D-printed concrete. • The bridge linking effect and dowel action of U-nails were analysed. • Response surface method were utilised to quantify the effects of U-nails on the interlayer bonding behaviour. 3D concrete printing has tremendous potential for construction manufacturing; however, weak interface bonding between adjacent layers remains a well-known issue that affects the mechanical properties of printed structures. The layers introduce anisotropy and reduce the capacity to resist tensile and shear loads. Reinforcements, inserted perpendicular to the printed layers to traverse the interfaces, can improve these limitations, but the insertion of reinforcements is difficult to achieve in practice, and there are few published studies exploring appropriate methods. This study presents a promising approach using U-shaped nails inserted into concrete during the printing process. The bridging effect and dowel action of the applied U-nails are visualised and analysed to elucidate the toughness improvement. The ultimate tensile strength and shear strength of 3D printed concrete are significantly increased by 145.0% and 220.0%, respectively. U-nails with a filament thickness of 2–2.5 mm are recommended to yield optimal improvement in the interlayer strength.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Particle-In-Cell Modeling Parameters in Settling Bed, Bubbling Fluidized Bed and Circulating Fluidized Bed

The objective of the work presented is to perform a preliminary sensitivity analysis of particle-in-cell (PIC) model parameters when applied to settling bed, bubbling fluidized bed, and circulating fluidized bed simulations. These examples correspond to widely different flow conditions commonly seen in chemical engineering applications. Simulations were performed using the PIC method in the open-source software Multiphase Flow with Interphase eXchanges (MFiX) developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). As part of the non-intrusive uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis, simulation campaigns were generated using Nodeworks. Sampling locations or settings for PIC model parameters were determined using the Latin Hypercube method. Response surfaces were created using radial basis functions (RBF), and Sobol’ indices were estimated to quantify the influence of model parameters on the quantities of interest (QoI). This study marks a first step towards systematically determining optimal ranges for model parameters used in MFiX-PIC. Based on limited experience, it is expected that these values would depend strongly on flow conditions. Given the complexity of the multiphase flow systems under analysis, a non-intrusive UQ based approach is used to identify the most influential parameters in each case. This prior knowledge will help in proposing an effective design of experiments (DoE) and determine optimal parameters through techniques such as deterministic or Bayesian calibration, which will be pursued in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Probabilistic Evaluation of Geomechanical Risks in CO2 Storage: An Exploration of Caprock Integrity Metrics Using a Multilaminate Model

The probabilistic uncertainty assessment of geomechanical risk—specifically, caprock failure—attributable to CO2 injection, as presented in a simplified hypothetical geological model, was the focus of this study. Our approach amalgamates the implementation of a multilaminate model, the creation of a response surface model in conjunction with the Box–Behnken sampling design, the execution of associated numerical modeling experiments, and the utilization of Monte Carlo simulations. Probability distributions to encapsulate the inherent variability (elastic and mechanical properties of the caprock and reservoir) and uncertainty in prediction estimates (vertical displacement, total strain, and F value) were employed. Our findings reveal that the Young modulus of the caprock is a key factor controlling equivalent total strain but is insufficient as a stand-alone indicator of caprock integrity. It is confirmed that the caprock can accommodate significant deformation without failure, if it possesses a low Young’s modulus and high mechanical strength properties, such as the friction angle and uniaxial compressive strength. Similarly, vertical displacement was found to be an unreliable indicator for caprock integrity, as caprock failure can occur across a broad spectrum of vertical displacements, particularly when both the Young modulus and mechanical strength properties have wide ranges. This study introduces the F value as the most dependable indicator for caprock failure, although it is a theoretical attribute (the shortest distance between the Mohr circle and the nearest failure envelope used to measure the sensitivity to failure) and not physically measurable in the field. Deviatoric stress levels were found to vary based on stress regimes, with the maximum levels observed under extensive and compressive stress regimes. In conjunction with the use of the response surface method, this study demonstrates the efficacy of the multilaminate framework and the Mohr–Coulomb constitutive model in providing a simplified, yet effective, probabilistic model of the mechanical behavior of caprock failure, reducing mathematical and computational complexities.

Energy & Fuels↗

Recent progress in the design of the K-DEMO divertor

The preliminary conceptual design of the Korean fusion demonstration reactor (K-DEMO) with a major radius of 6.8 m and the fusion power of 2200 MW has been studied since 2012. The overall configuration of the K-DEMO divetor system based on the ITER-like water-cooled tungsten technology is a double-null type symmetric divertor subdivided into 32 toroidal modules for the vertical maintenance. A detached divertor scenario with impurity seeding was considered as the primary approach for the power exhaust to reduce the peak heat flux lower than the engineering limit of 10 MW/m 2 . The power exhaust performance at the scrap off layer was estimated by using UEDGE-2D code, a two-dimensional fluid transport code for collisional edge plasma and neutral species like N, Ne, and Ar. Particle and heat flux on inboard and outboard divertor targets were calculated for the detached cased depending on parameters such as the impurity seeding rate, pumping rate, and the pedestal density. On the other hand, a magnetic solution like X-divertor, snowflake divertor, and super X-divertor to expand the plasma wet area was considered for K-DEMO since the detached divertor increasing a radiation fraction by impurity seeding might be able to be unstable. However, the extremely high current of poloidal coils was required more than the engineering limit, 20 MA, to form magnetic field lines for the alternative divertors. Based on the physical calculation of the edge plasma, engineering analyses were carried out to find out the thermal and structural reliability. The thermo-hydraulic analysis confirmed thermal stability, whether all comprising materials are operating within their allowable temperature windows when the case of the peak heat flux is set to 10 MW/m 2 on the outboard divertor target. The response surface optimization method derived two optimal design candidates employing two kinds of heat sink materials, respectively: the reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) steel and CuCrZr alloy. Additionally, the drawbacks and merits of the two materials were definite. The optimal design with applying RAFM steel was vulnerable to withstand thermal and mechanical loads since low thermal conductivity caused too thin thickness of the heat sink. On the other hand, the CuCrZr alloy has critical drawbacks in terms of activation and radioactive waste despite its high thermal conductivity. Meanwhile, preliminary electromagnetic (EM) analysis was carried out to estimate the EM loads caused by the abnormal behaviors of plasma since EM loads are one of the most critical external loads for designing a DEMO divertor.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Reversible Binding Interfaces Made of Microstructured Polymer Brushes

The polymer brush architecture of the end-tethered polymer molecules is one of the most widely used efficient methods to regulate interfacial interactions in colloidal systems found in live matter and manufactured materials. Emerging applications of polymer brush structures require solutions to new tasks in the control of interfacial interactions. The rapid development of live cell manufacturing relies on scalable and efficient cell harvesting methods. Stimuli-responsive surfaces made of surface-grafted poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAM) can bind and detach the adherent cell upon changes in temperature and have been used for cell growth and harvesting. The applications are limited by the requirement to satisfy a range of PNIPAM coating characteristics that depend on the dimensions of the integrin complex in the cell membrane and the basal surface. The analysis of the microstructured surfaces, when adhesive and disjoining functions of the microdomains are decoupled, shows that many limitations of PNIPAM one-component coatings can be avoided by using a much broader range of structural characteristics of the microstructured interfaces composed of alternating disjoining PNIPAM domains and adhesive polymeric domains with cell-affinity functional groups. Temperature-controlled reversible adhesion to such microstructured interfaces is studied here experimentally with model systems of solid spherical particles and by employing simulations for solid and soft membranes interacting with the microstructured surfaces to mimic interactions with soft and solid disk-like particles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Aggregation in bottom-up vulnerability assessments and equity implications: The case of Jordanian households’ water supply

Bottom-up methods for water resources modeling rely on acceptability thresholds to find, through a response surface, which deeply uncertain futures lead to system failure. They commonly treat water users as aggregate actors, which may preclude analysis of the equity impacts of interventions. This paper explores how aggregation choices for large groups of water users lead to different policy recommendations in response surface assessments. Herein, two aggregation methods with varying parameters are considered: percentile satisfaction targets and generalized mean. A 2-dimensional stress-test assessment across groundwater availability and population is applied to household water supply in Jordan. The study compares six different policies covering supply enhancement and rebalancing, using a country-wide multi-agent model that characterizes households across socioeconomic strata. For different aggregation levels, policies are ordered by their associated robustness index. Results show that aggregation choices may modify response surfaces as much as policy changes and strongly determine policy preference. Modifying allocation rules can substantially reduce the disparity in household vulnerability. Preferences defined by aggregation intervals provide a finer understanding of trade-offs among water users and may improve deliberation over equity under deep uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Studies of surface adsorbate electronic structure and femtochemistry at the fundamental length and time scales. Final report

The electronic structure and ultrafast (10-15 s-femtosecond timescale) electron dynamics were investigated for clean and atom/molecule covered metal surfaces. The studies were performed by scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) to measure the structure of adsorbed atoms and molecules on metal surfaces, and to investigate their electronic properties. The electronic structure of the observed molecular networks was calculated by electronic structure theory in collaboration with Prof. Jin Zhao, who is a long-time collaborator, a Professor at the University of Science and Technology of China, and holds an Adjunct Professorship at the University of Pittsburgh. We also investigated the electronic properties of C60 molecules when they are templated by corrugated black phosphorous surfaces. We found unexpected charge delocalization that is enabled by the templating. This research was done in collaboration with Professor Min Feng at the Wuhan University, and who also holds an Adjunct Professorship at the University of Pittsburgh. Moreover, the electronic structure and electron dynamics in metal surfaces were investigated by time-resolved photoemission electron spectroscopy. The focus of ultrafast spectroscopy has been on the plasmonic response of silver surfaces. One direction has been to develop multidimensional (energy, momentum, and time) photoelectron spectroscopy of the coherent response of solid surfaces. This method was applied to study the collective electron excitations known generally as plasmons, which screen optical fields from penetration into metals. Although this collective response has been known for more than 60 years and is used extensively to deposit optical energy into metals, how this happens is poorly known. We investigated the plasmonic response of silver at the point where the dielectric response passes through zero and bulk plasmon is excited by light. We discovered that the plasmon excitation decays by exciting electrons from the Fermi level of a metal, which is contrary to what is believed in the plasmonic science community. This research has been performed in collaboration with Dr. Marcel Reutzel, who was a postdoctoral fellow working on this research at the University of Pittsburgh, and now has a faculty position at the University of Göttingen in Germany. Prof. Branko Gumhalter from the Institute of Physics in Zagreb contributed on the theory of plasmonic decay processes. Furthermore, we investigated the Floquet engineering of electronic bands in metals leading to multiphoton photoemission and above threshold photoemission. Finally, we demonstrated that it is possible to change the electronic structure of metals by application of optical fields. Our studies indicated that this happens on subfemtosecond time scale and could potentially be used in ultrafast information processing and quantum computation. Related document information

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Rolling Behavior of Surface Tagged Aluminum 6061 using Photoluminescent Oxides

Physical tagging of nuclear fuel is potentially one way of tracking throughout the fuel lifecycle. The process of tagging can take many forms, but one promising method is to embed a small amount of photoluminescent particles in the surface of a material which are not detectable under normal illumination but are readily visible under excitation by ultraviolet light. The goal of this project was to explore the potential to tag simulated nuclear fuel cladding with small ceramic particles, via laser beam welding or gas tungsten arc welding, and measure the photoluminescent response. Surface tagging using this method has demonstrated viability and detectability throughout this project; work in FY24 focused on the survivability of these tags through subsequent deformation processing similar to what taggants in a fuel manufacturing environment would be subjected to. This work demonstrated that particles are readily visible in the as-welded state (i.e., before subsequent rolling treatment to represent mechanical processing of a fuel material), but visibility is reduced as the deformation is induced. Despite the reduction in photoluminescence, the taggants are still visible after rolling processes are performed, making this surface tagging technique a promising candidate for nuclear fuel cladding tagging. This work demonstrated, though, that targeted optimization work would be necessary to develop a robust taggant depending on the fidelity and luminescent properties required.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electromagnetic Response of Superconducting RF Cavities

Recently reported anomalies in frequency shift of order δƒ ~ 0.1–10 kHz for Niobium SRF cavities in a narrow temperature region near T c ≃ 9 K are sensitive to the surface preparation and Nitrogen doping. We developed methods for calculating the surface current response of Nb SRF cavities, as well as the resonant frequency shift and quality factor, as functions of temperature, frequency and disorder based on the Keldysh formulation of the theory for nonequilibrium superconductivity coupled with Maxwell’s theory and boundary conditions for the response functions and electromagnetic field. We show that the anomaly is sensitive to impurity disorder. Our results for the anomaly in the frequency shift are in good agreement with experimental results for Nb with an anisotropic gap on the Fermi surface and inhomogeneous non-magnetic disorder. We also show that the quality factor as a function of the impurity scattering rate is maximum for in SRF cavities with intermediate disorder, ℏ/τΔ~O(1) with the maximum $Q$ decreasing with increasing frequency.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Optimization of a Cyclone Using Multiphase Flow Computational Fluid Dynamics

The U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory's (NETL) 50 kW th chemical looping reactor (CLR) has an underperforming cyclone, which was designed using empirical correlations. To improve the performance of this cyclone using computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-based modeling simulations, four critical design parameters including the vortex tube radius and length, barrel radius, and the inlet width and height were optimized. Here, NETL's open source multiphase flow with interphase exchange (MFiX) CFD code has been used to model a series of cyclones by systematically varying the geometric design parameters. To perform the optimization process, the surrogate modeling and sensitivity analysis followed by the optimization capability in nodeworks was used. The basic methodology for the process is to employ a statistical design of experiments (DOE) method to generate sampling simulations that fill the design space. Corresponding CFD models are then created, executed, and postprocessed. A response surface is created to characterize the relationship between input parameters and the quantities of interest (QoI). Finally, the CFD-surrogate is used by an optimization method to find the optimal design condition based on the objective and constraints prescribed. The resulting optimal cyclone has a larger diameter and longer vortex tube, a larger diameter barrel, and a taller and narrower solids inlet. The improved design has a predicted pressure drop 11 times lower than the original design while reducing the mass loss by a factor of 2.3.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Rotational symmetry relation for efficient response function generation in the coarse mesh transport method COMET

The coarse mesh transport code COMET is a continuous energy hybrid stochastic-deterministic neutronics solver with high fidelity and formidable computation speed in solving reactor core problems. Its method is based on the incident flux expansion theory. In this work, we take advantage of the local geometric symmetry in many reactor cores lattices (e.g., fuel lattices and reflector blocks) to develop relations among the flux response expansion coefficients for symmetric surfaces to further improve the computational efficiency of the COMET response function generation tool (method). This is done by a rigorous derivation of the transformation matrices for the angular and spatial expansion moments resulting from a rotation of a coarse mesh by an arbitrary angle. The relations for the response coefficients for the symmetric surfaces can be then written as the Kronecker product of those transformation matrices. The method is implemented into COMET and tested on two advanced high temperature reactor (AHTR) full-length single assembly benchmark problems. The COMET results using the response function library based on the symmetry relations were compared to those using the library directly generated by continuous energy Monte Carlo for all surfaces. It was found that the eigenvalues and stripe-wise fission densities using the two libraries are in statistical agreement as expected. This indicates that the new method maintains the high fidelity of the original COMET method while improving the computational efficiency in the response function generation by 270% to 400%, depending on the local geometric symmetry. This method also reduces the size of the response function library by the same magnitude (270% to 400%). (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

First Principles Nonadiabatic Excited-State Molecular Dynamics in NWChem

Computational simulation of non-adiabatic molecular dynamics is an indispensable tool for understanding complex photoinduced processes such as internal conversion, energy transfer, charge separation, and spatial localization of excitons, to name a few. Here, we report an implementation of the fewest-switches surface hopping algorithm in the NWChem computational chemistry program. Here the surface hopping method is combined with linear-response time-dependent density functional theory calculations of adiabatic excited state potential energy surfaces. To treat quantum transitions between arbitrary electronic Born{Oppenheimer states, we have implemented both numerical and analytical differentiation schemes for derivative non-adiabatic couplings. A numerical approach for the time-derivative non-adiabatic couplings together with an analytical method for calculating non-adiabatic coupling vectors is an efficient combination for surface hopping approaches. Additionally, electronic decoherence schemes and a state reassigned unavoided crossings algorithm are also implemented to improve the accuracy of the simulated dynamics and to handle trivial unavoided crossings. We apply our code to study the ultrafast decay of photoexcited benzene, including a detailed analysis of the potential energy surface, population decay time scales, and vibrational coordinates coupled to the excitation dynamics. The development presented in this work is a baseline for future implementations of more sophisticated frameworks for simulating of non-adiabatic molecular dynamics in NWChem.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Alternating Conditional Expectations: Introducing a Non‐Parametric Statistical Method to Interpret Long‐Term Greenhouse Gas Flux Measurements Over Semi‐Arid and Wetland Ecosystems

Abstract We explore the potential of using a non‐parametric statistical method called Alternating Conditional Expectations, ACE, to quantify functional relationships in biogeosciences. Here, ACE is used to quantify the non‐linear and multi‐faceted responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to a set of biophysical forcings, when the shapes of those response surfaces are unknown. We evaluated the statistical method over two contrasting ecosystems and two contrasting time steps. One case involved quantifying the biophysical controls of water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes over a semi‐arid oak savanna using daily integrated fluxes. The other case evaluated the responses of CO 2 and methane (CH 4 ) flux measurements to a set of biophysical forcings at a restored tidal wetland using thirty‐minute averages. The statistical model, based on 4 independent variables, explained up over 90% of the variation in daily integrated flux densities of water vapor and net carbon dioxide exchange at the savanna site. This fit was defined by distinct non‐linear responses to such drivers as gross primary production, photosynthetically active radiation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. At the tidal wetland site, we evaluated net carbon dioxide and methane fluxes with short‐term measurements to capture the influence of rising and falling tides and seasonality in biological activity. The statistical model defined the shape of the forcing of fluxes due to the roles of carbon exudates, water table depth, oxygen level in the water column, temperature and vegetation status. The statistical fits of the greenhouse gas fluxes were less precise than the savanna case. The fetch varies on a run‐to‐run basis as it is comprised of a heterogeneous mosaic of open water and vegetation. Furthermore, it is difficult to monitor the environmental conditions of the archaea and bacteria in the sediments that produce methane and carbon dioxide.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Recent land cover changes in the Southwestern US lead to an increase in surface temperature

The increase in large-scale land cover change (LCC) in recent decades, particularly in response to climate-driven disturbances, has potential to impact local and regional changes in climate due to modification of carbon sources and sinks, albedo, surface roughness and energy fluxes. Using observational data, we predict the impact of two of the most extensive LCCs occurring in the Southwestern US: drought-induced tree mortality and shrub encroachment into grasslands, on surface temperature. We developed a new energy balance method that extracts the biophysical responses to environmental conditions, to predict how structural changes in albedo, surface roughness and canopy conductance following LCC will alter surface temperature. This method allows us not only to explain the observed differences in surface temperature between two non-adjacent study sites with different environmental conditions, but also to separate the contribution of biophysical and non-biophysical properties to surface temperature. Our results suggest that changes in biophysical properties due to shrub encroachment and tree mortality in the Southwestern US (independent of changes in other environmental properties) can potentially lead to an increase in midday surface temperature (11AM to 2PM) of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius, comparable to changes in surface temperature following deforestation. Although the average surface temperature increase in response to both shrub encroachment and tree mortality is similar, the biophysical properties driving the temperature change are different in each scenario. Change in aerodynamic conductance following tree mortality is the largest contributor to heating, while reduced albedo and canopy conductance drive the increase in surface temperature following shrub encroachment. Finally, we also show how this increase in daytime surface temperature could be further intensified with future climate, especially with the expected reduction in soil water availability in the Southwest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗