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California Reservoir Inflow Projections Using a Hybrid EMD-Matalas Method

Inflow projections provide scenarios for future water availability and are integral to operational reservoir management. They can aid water practitioners in decision-making for conservation efforts, multiyear storage retention, managing flood risk, downstream water releases, and regional growth planning. However, conventional methods are often limited in terms of their ability to incorporate non-stationarity, long run persistence, and the cross-correlation of multiple series in a region. This research aims to address these issues with a hybrid approach that integrates Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with the Matalas multisite generation method. Multiple long-run inflows were examined for the Shasta/Trinity Reservoirs and Oroville Reservoir of California. EMD is used to decompose each inflow series into a set of independent intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) that have different timescales and frequencies. These IMFs were grouped into intradecadal (less-than- 10-year average periodicity) and interdecadal (greater-than-10-year average periodicity) series for each site. The IMF projections at each site were then combined to produce replicates of the historical data. This preserves the correlation structure of the intra- and interdecadal components of the series. The hybrid EMD-Matalas method was compared to a traditional autoregressive lag-one model. Both methods were found to retain the statistical characteristics of the historical data. However, the EMD-Matalas method retained the multiyear wet and dry periods to a greater degree. This was examined by comparing the 5-year and 10-year sums from the traditional model with the hybrid EMD-Matalas model. An advantage of the EMD-Matalas method is the ability to explicitly incorporate modes of non-stationary long-run persistence often associated with large-scale climate drivers such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This contributes to scenario planning that may be particularly important for managing multiyear low flow periods.

inflow projections

Analysis of information systems for hydropower operations: Executive summary

An analysis was performed of the operations of hydropower systems, with emphasis on water resource management, to determine how aerospace derived information system technologies can effectively increase energy output. Better utilization of water resources was sought through improved reservoir inflow forecasting based on use of hydrometeorologic information systems with new or improved sensors, satellite data relay systems, and use of advanced scheduling techniques for water release. Specific mechanisms for increased energy output were determined, principally the use of more timely and accurate short term (0-7 days) inflow information to reduce spillage caused by unanticipated dynamic high inflow events. The hydrometeorologic models used in predicting inflows were examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of inflow prediction accuracy to the many variables employed in the models, and the results were used to establish information system requirements. Sensor and data handling system capabilities were reviewed and compared to the requirements, and an improved information system concept was outlined.

Sohn, R. L.

Analysis of information systems for hydropower operations

The operations of hydropower systems were analyzed with emphasis on water resource management, to determine how aerospace derived information system technologies can increase energy output. Better utilization of water resources was sought through improved reservoir inflow forecasting based on use of hydrometeorologic information systems with new or improved sensors, satellite data relay systems, and use of advanced scheduling techniques for water release. Specific mechanisms for increased energy output were determined, principally the use of more timely and accurate short term (0-7 days) inflow information to reduce spillage caused by unanticipated dynamic high inflow events. The hydrometeorologic models used in predicting inflows were examined to determine the sensitivity of inflow prediction accuracy to the many variables employed in the models, and the results used to establish information system requirements. Sensor and data handling system capabilities were reviewed and compared to the requirements, and an improved information system concept outlined.

Sohn, R. L.

Evaluate ERTS imagery for mapping and detection of changes of snowcover on land and on glaciers

The author has identified the following significant results. The percentage of snow cover area on specific drainage basins was measured from ERTS-1 imagery by video density slicing with a repeatability of 4 percent of the snow covered area. Data from ERTS-1 images of the melt season snow cover in the Thunder Creek drainage basin in the North Cascades were combined with existing hydrologic and meteorologic observations to enable calculations of the time distribution of the water stored in this mountain snowpack. Similar data could be used for frequent updating of expected inflow to reservoirs. Equivalent snowline altitudes were determined from area measurements. Snowline altitudes were also determined by combining enlarged ERTS-1 images with maps. ERTS-1 imagery was also successfully used to measure glacier accumulation area ratios for a small test basin.

Meier, M. F.

Evaluation of ERTS imagery for mapping and detection of changes of snowcover land and on glaciers

The percentage of snowcover area on specific drainage basins was measured from ERTS imagery by video density slicing with a repeatability of 4 percent of the snowcovered area. Data from ERTS images of the melt season snowcover in the Thunder Creek drainage basin in the North Cascades were combined with existing hydrologic and meteorologic observations to enable calculation of the time distribution of the water stored in this mountain snowpack. Similar data could be used for frequent updating of expected inflow to reservoirs. Equivalent snowline altitudes were determined from area measurements. Snowline altitudes were also determined by combining enlarged ERTS images with maps with an accuracy of about 60 m under favorable conditions. Ability to map snowcover or to determine snowline altitude depends primarily on cloud cover and vegetation and secondarily on slope, terrain roughness, sun angle, radiometric fidelity, and amount of spectral information available.

Meier, M. F.

Satellite-Based Tracking of Reservoir Operations for Flood Management During the 2018 Extreme Weather Event in Kerala, India

Uncoordinated management of hydropower dams during extreme and unexpected precipitation events in mountainous terrain can have disastrous consequences due to the competing nature of flood control and hydropower generation. Numerous cases of flooding events that have been exacerbated due to insufficient storage conditions in hydropower dams have been reported worldwide. There is a need for a scalable and publicly accessible monitoring framework that is capable of providing reliable, near-real time, and transparent reservoir operations data. A fully satellite-based framework is the most viable solution to build such capability. The Reservoir Assessment Tool (RAT 3.0), which utilizes high frequency remote sensing-based surface area and reservoir storage estimation alongside hydrological modelled inflow was applied here for the 2018 Kerala floods in India as a globally representative case for a mountainous river basin with high precipitation and hydropower dams. Application of satellite-based RAT 3.0 in monitoring the state of 19 reservoirs in Kerala during the flood event showed very promising results. In general, RAT 3.0, using satellite remote sensing, was found to be able to capture the temporal trend of the reservoir storage and pinpoint the sudden shift in filling or release decisions made by the dam operator. Inflow modelling in such regions was found to require careful calibration with identification of reservoirs that are heavily regulated being a critical aspect. The perennial high cloud cover in such regions necessitate and highlights the central role played by microwave and radar-based satellite sensors, such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, in tracking reservoir state. An operational version of RAT 3.0 for stakeholder agencies tailored for hydropower dams operating in high precipitation and mountainous environments is a real-world outcome of this study.

Sarath Suresh

Thermal study of the Missouri River in North Dakota using infrared imagery

Studies of infrared imagery obtained from aircraft at 305- to 1,524-meter altitudes indicate the feasibility of monitoring thermal changes attributable to the operation of thermal electric plants and storage reservoirs, as well as natural phenomena such as tributary inflow and ground water seeps in large rivers. No identifiable sources of ground water inflow below the surface of the river could be found in the imagery. The thermal patterns from the generating plants and the major tributary inflow are readily apparent in imagery obtained from an altitude of 305 meters. Portions of the tape-recorded imagery were processed in a color-coded quantization to enhance the displays and to attach quantitative significance to the data. The study indicates a marked decrease in water temperature in the Missouri River prior to early fall and a moderate increase in temperature in late fall because of the Lake Sakakawea impoundment.

Crosby, O. A.

Study of vapor flow into a capillary acquisition device

An analytical model was developed that prescribes the conditions for vapor flow through the window screen of a start basket. Several original submodels were developed as part of this model. The submodels interrelate such phenomena as the effect of internal evaporation of the liquid, the bubble point change of a screen in the presence of wicking, the conditions for drying out of a screen through a combination of evaporation and pressure difference, the vapor inflow rate across a wet screen as a function of pressure difference, and the effect on wicking of a difference between the static pressure of the liquid reservoir and the surrounding vapor. Most of these interrelations were verified by a series of separate effects tests, which were also used to determine certain empirical constants in the models. The equations of the model were solved numerically for typical start basket designs, and a simplified start basket was constructed to verify the predictions, using both volatile and nonvolatile test liquids. The test results verified the trends predicted by the model.

Dodge, F. T.

Numerical thermal analyses of heat exchangers for the stirling engine application

The Regenerator, Cooler and Heater for the NASA Space Power Research Engine (SPRE) have been analyzed in detail for laminar, incompressible and oscillatory flow conditions. Each component has been analyzed independently and in detail with the regenerator being modeled as two-parallel-plates channel with a solid wall. The ends of the channel are exposed to two reservoir maintained at different temperature thus providing an axial temperature gradient along the channel. The cooler and heater components have been modeled as circular pipes with isothermal walls. Two different types of thermal boundary conditions have been investigated for the cooler and heater, namely, symmetric and asymmetric temperature inflow. In symmetric temperature inflow the flow enters the channel with the same temperature in throughout the velocity cycle whereas, in asymmetric temperature inflow the flow enters with a different temperature in each half cycle. The study was conducted over a wide range of Maximum Reynolds number (RE(max) varying from 75 to 60000, Valensi number (Va) from 2.5 to 800, and relative amplitude of fluid displacement (A(sub r) from 0.357 to 1.34. A two dimensional Finite volume method based on the SIMPLE algorithm was used to solve the governing partial differential equations. Post processing programs were developed to effectively describe the heat transfer mechanism under oscillatory flows. The computer code was validated by comparing with existing analytical solutions for oscillating flows. The thermal field have been studied with the help of temperature contour and three dimensional plots. The instantaneous friction factor, wall heat flux and heat transfer coefficient have been examined. It has been concluded that in general, the frictional factor and heat transfer coefficient are higher under oscillatory flow conditions when the Valensi number is high. Also, the thermal efficiency decreases for lower A(r) values. Further, the usual steady state definition for the heat transfer coefficient does not seem to be valid.

Kannapareddy, Mohan Raj