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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic Optimal Dispatch of Energy Systems with Intermittent Renewables and Damage Model

With the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources into the grid, there is a growing need for process systems-based strategies that integrate dispatchable and variable energy systems for supplying the demand while maintaining grid reliability. The proposed framework corresponds to a dynamic mixed-integer linear programming optimization approach that integrates coal-fired and natural gas-fired power plants, NaS batteries for energy storage, and solar/wind energy to supply the demand. This optimization approach considers an economic goal and constraints to provide power balance while maintaining the overall damage of the natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plant drum under a maximum stress as well as avoiding the overheating of the NGCC superheater and reheater. Renewable curtailment levels are also retained at minimum levels. Case studies are analyzed considering different loads and renewable penetration levels. The results show that the demand was met for all cases. Grid flexibility was mostly provided by the NGCC, while the batteries were used sparingly. In addition, considering a CO 2 equivalent analysis, the environmental performance was intrinsically connected to grid flexibility and the level of renewable penetration. Stress analysis results reinforced the necessity for an equipment health-related constraint.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

IDAES Enterprise: Generation Expansion Planning with Enhanced Requirements for Capacity Adequacy Under Renewable Intermittency

Achieving net zero carbon emissions likely requires future power systems to integrate new, flexible energy technologies to accommodate higher levels of capacity from variable renewable energy sources. To determine the optimal deployment of new electricity capacity and to study the likelihood of deployments of new energy technologies, an expansion planning model has been developed as part of the IDAES-Enterprise suite of grid models. The Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) model is a multi-period model in which investment decisions occur yearly, and a Unit Commitment (UC) problem is examined on an hourly timescale. To reduce computational complexity of the GEP model, the UC problem is solved for average “representative days” which leaves out extreme, but relatively common, scenarios in which low renewable generation occurs, leaving the system with inadequacy in capacity. The IDAES-Enterprise GEP model has been modified to include these extreme scenarios while keeping the model reasonably tractable. Specifically, a lazy constraint technique was implemented to check for capacity adequacy on an hourly basis over a large data set of aligned load-wind-solar profiles. As a vast majority of the capacity constraints will not be violated, the technique lowers computational expense by searching for violated capacity constraints over an “iterative manner,” adding those infeasible constraints back into the model. Results on a test case of the Southwest Power Pool shows that the lazy constraint technique significantly reduces retirements and increases installments of natural gas combined cycles and flexible natural gas units. It also reduces some retirements of coal units. These modifications provide a more reasonable estimation of required dispatchable power generation capacity to ensure feasibility during peak net load.

Liu, Peng↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Analysis of the Effects of Renewable Energy Intermittency on the 2030 Korean Electricity Market

Republic of Korea has unique geographical characteristics similar to those of an island, resulting in an isolated power system. For this reason, securing sufficient operating reserves for the system’s stability and reliability in the face of the intermittency of increasing variable renewable energy (VRE) is paramount, and this will pave the way to achieving the nation’s decarbonization target and carbon neutrality. However, the current reserve-operation method in Republic of Korea does not take into account energy-system conditions, such as the intermittency of the VRE. Therefore, this paper presents an analysis of the impact of changes in reserve-operation methods on the electricity market in the future Republic of Korean power system, with the increased levels of VRE that are currently envisioned. Specifically, three reserve-operation methods, including Korea’s current reserve-power-operation standards, were applied to the two power-system plans announced by the Korean government to analyze the annual generator operation and costs. The analysis results show that securing reserves proportional to the VRE would exert negative effects, such as increased power-generation costs and the curtailment of nuclear and VRE generation. These results can contribute to the estimation of operational reserves needed for high levels of VRE and to the design of new the Korean reserve market, to be introduced in 2025.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

GT Flex: A Coordinated Multi-Building Pilot Study

Buildings are a significant and untapped resource for providing utility electric grid services. Recent studies have estimated that buildings could reduce the peak demand on the electric grid in the U.S. by almost 25% through effective combinations of energy efficiency (EE) measures and load flexibility strategies (Langevin et al. 2021). The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has established a goal to triple energy efficiency and demand flexibility in both residential and commercial sections by 2030 compared to 2020 levels (Satchwell et al. 2021). Such findings place buildings alongside electric vehicles, photovoltaics, electric batteries, and other distributed energy resources (DERs) as primary technologies needed for supporting high renewable energy generation grids. Coordinating and optimizing multiple buildings and other DERs is more beneficial and valuable when compared with individual buildings and DERs operating as siloed resources, uncoordinated with others (Olgyay et al. 2020). A pilot study at the Georgia Institute of Technology (GIT) was conducted to evaluate value propositions of a multi-building scale project seeking carbon reduction, energy efficiency and grid-interactive capabilities, by demonstrating the means by which stakeholders can determine the technical and financial merits of grid-interactivity and energy efficiency technologies coordinated across multiple assets. The study focused on analyzing technical feasibility of deploying thermal load flexibility strategies at the multi-building scale, coordinated to not exceed existing infrastructure constraints at the pilot site. Results show that campus can provide 3-3.5 MW of potential load shed over a 4-hour event window through coordinated dispatch of thermal cooling load flexibility without exceeding existing infrastructure capacities. Under future high renewable scenarios, this thermal flexibility resource is also valuable when coordinated to reduce curtailment of intermittent renewables. Economic analyses were performed to effectively communicate various value propositions of grid-interactive and efficient building (GEB) thermal flexibility strategies. Load flexibility presents a financial value proposition to the campus today. By conducting rationalized, coordinated dispatch in response to real time price (RTP) fluctuations, the campus can benefit materially from daily price arbitrage. The RTP signal acts as an aggregating mechanism between the utility and customer to call on demand flexibility resources, with a large portion of the benefit deriving from a relatively small number of days. Realizing and maximizing this benefit with thermal load flexibility requires careful attention to the timing of pricing signals and parameterization of dispatch to overcome efficiency penalties. Grid value and signals are expected to evolve over time, and thermal load flexibility shows potential to adapt dispatch logic to support intermittent renewable generation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ionomer Optimization for Water Uptake and Swelling in Anion Exchange Membrane Electrolyzer: Hydrogen Evolution Electrode

Green hydrogen produced through anion exchange membrane water electrolysis is a promising, low-cost chemical storage solution for intermittent renewable energy sources. Low-temperature electrolysis using anion exchange membranes (AEM) combines the benefits of established water electrolysis technologies based on alkaline electrolysis and proton exchange membrane electrolysis. The anion conductive ionomers (ACI) used in the AEM electrolyzer (AEMEL) electrodes has been investigated. The ACI serves two primary purposes: (i) facilitate hydroxide conduction between the catalyst and bulk electrolyte and (ii) bind the catalyst to the porous transport layer and membrane. High ion exchange capacity (IEC) ACIs are desired, however, high IEC can cause excessive water uptake (WU) and detrimental ACI swelling. Proper water management is a key factor in obtaining maximum performance in AEM-based devices. In this study, a series of poly(norbornene)-based ACIs were synthesized and deployed in hydrogen evolving AEMEL cathode electrodes. A balance between ionic conductivity, WU and ionomer swelling was achieved in the ACI by varying the IEC and degree of polymer cross-linking. It was found that higher IEC ACIs with light crosslinking are preferred in the HER electrode. Furthermore, such a configuration fine-tuned the WU and ionomer swelling to achieve optimum cell performance and reduce cell operating voltages.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

A New Class of Proton Conductors with Dramatically Enhanced Stability and High Conductivity for Reversible Solid Oxide Cells

Reversible solid oxide cells based on proton conductors (P-ReSOCs) have potential to be the most efficient and low-cost option for large-scale energy storage and power generation, holding promise as an enabler for the implementation of intermittent renewable energy technologies and the widespread utilization of hydrogen. Here, the rational design of a new class of hexavalent Mo/W-doped proton-conducting electrolytes with excellent durability while maintaining high conductivity is reported. Specifically, BaMo(W) 0.03 Ce 0.71 Yb 0.26 O 3-δ exhibits dramatically enhanced chemical stability against high concentrations of steam and carbon dioxide than the state-of-the-art electrolyte materials while retaining similar ionic conductivity. In addition, P-ReSOCs based on BaW 0.03 Ce 0.71 Yb 0.26 O 3-δ demonstrate high peak power densities of 1.54, 1.03, 0.72, and 0.48 W cm –2 at 650, 600, 550, and 500 °C, respectively, in the fuel cell mode. During steam electrolysis, a high current density of 2.28 A cm –2 is achieved at a cell voltage of 1.3 V at 600 °C, and the electrolysis cell can operate stably with no noticeable degradation when exposed to high humidity of 30% H 2 O at –0.5 A cm –2 and 600 °C for over 300 h. Altogether, this work demonstrates the promise of donor doping for obtaining proton conductors with both high conductivity and chemical stability for P-ReSOCs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation: Integration of Underground Hydrogen Storage with Gas Turbine (Final Report)

As the nation continues to encourage, through market structures and financial incentives, the proliferation of intermittent renewable electricity, how to optimize the ever-changing electric grid and identify means to retain and improve resilience, while ensuring continued reductions in GHG emissions, will be critical. According to Bloomberg, wind & solar generated 10.5% of US electricity in 2020 and that percentage continues to grow. In support of expanding renewable energy use, and to address its intermittent nature, this project will develop the Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation platform that is dispatchable, reliable, repeatable and have the ability to produce zero or negative carbon power while interfacing with geology capable of CO2 and hydrogen storage. GTI Energy (GTIE) and team members Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries America (MHIA), Ameren Illinois, Hexagon Purus, and the Low Carbon Resources Initiative (LCRI) completed a Phase I Conceptual Study under contract DE-FE0032012 for Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation: Integration of Underground Hydrogen Storage with Gas Turbine. The Hydrogen Storage for Flexible Fossil Fuel Power Generation platform addresses the intermittent nature of the expanding use of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) generation. The low cost of the electricity (COE) generated results in greater dispatch and more operation at higher power levels (higher efficiency), fewer short intervals, and fewer start/stop cycles. The reliable, resilient system can produce zero carbon power and store hydrogen. It will demonstrate hydrogen storage in geologic formations like those used in natural gas underground storage thus enabling large scale storage of hydrogen in sedimentary strata across the United States rather than in geographically restricted salt caverns. The Phase I study confirmed the system is feasible and generates power at lower cost than other low carbon approaches. The demonstration defines the pathway for broad commercial application and will accelerate the development of larger systems suitable for centralized utility scale electricity production. The study advanced the maturity of the H 2 storage-based system with flexible power generation by completing a Pre-FEED study (Phase II). The Pre-FEED focused on the selected Energy Farm on the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) site that includes above ground and underground hydrogen storage, low-carbon hydrogen production (GTI’s Compact Hydrogen Generator, CHG) with underground CO2 sequestration, and a 40-MW class gas turbine. The Pre-FEED addressed the entire system and its interconnection to the natural gas and electric grid and mitigation of key risks, such as storage behavior, load-following, and system operation. During Phase 1 of the project, the team completed key tasks, which moved the entire demonstration project, specific components and approaches closer to commercialization. These Phase I Accomplishments include: Completing System Requirements Review; Completing System Layout and Modeling - Heat & Mass Balance and Process Flow Diagram; Completing modelling of 9 turbine performance cases; Evaluating rock strata for underground storage of hydrogen and sequestration of carbon dioxide; Completing initial modelling of underground storage of hydrogen and withdrawal with evaluation of loss and water production; Identifying roadable storage for above ground hydrogen storage; Identifying existing electrical infrastructure for receiving/delivering electricity; Identifying existing gas supply infrastructure for receiving natural gas; Document concept design/development plans in required reports. Conclusions: The 12-month Feasibility study in Phase I study was completed and confirmed the system is feasible and generates power at lower cost than other low carbon approaches and even lower cost than the reference NGCC plant without carbon capture when taking advantage of 45Q carbon credits. The study enabled the fidelity of the concept to be improved and allowed identification of the requirements for the system. Defining the individual system and component requirements was performed via the system requirements review with the whole team. These requirements were then incorporated into and iterated with our Heat & Mass Balance process model and process flow diagrams were generated to reflect the overall system. This information was then used to complete the TEA and show economic feasibility. Large scale non-salt geologic storage of hydrogen is an enabling technology for a hydrogen-fired turbine that can be retrofitted into large-scale electric generating units (EGU). Our demonstration will include 428 MWh or ~4 hours full load of hydrogen storage (above and underground). Carbon capture inherent to the CHG process can capture 90% CO 2 (with upgrades to >98%). This system provides a COE of 23% savings relative to an NGCC with a post combustion amine system. Our proposed storage system decouples carbon capture and hydrogen production from power production; therefore, we expect our proposed system’s efficiency and variable COE to be superior resulting in overall higher dispatch and reduced deep cycling. Our demonstration will be full to multi-day hydrogen storage and has the potential for longer (seasonal) duration commercially. The demonstration defines the pathway for broad commercial application and will accelerate the development of larger systems suitable for centralized utility scale electricity production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Energy Storage in the Uptake of Renewable Energy: A Model Comparison Approach

The power sector needs to ensure a rapid transition towards a low-carbon energy system to avoid the dangerous consequences of greenhouse gas emissions. Storage technologies are a promising option to provide the power system with the flexibility required when intermittent renewables are present in the electricity generation mix. This paper focuses on the role of electricity storage in energy systems with high shares of renewable sources. The study encompasses a model comparison approach where four models (GENeSYS-MOD, MUSE, NATEM, and urbs - MX) are used to analyse the storage uptake in North America. The analysis addresses the conditions affecting storage uptake in each country and its dependence on resource availability, technology costs, and public policies. Results show that storage may promote emissions reduction at lower costs when renewable mandates are in place whereas in presence of carbon taxes, renewables may compete with other low-carbon options. The study also highlights the main modelling approach shortcomings in the modelling of electricity storage in integrated assessment models.

electricity storage↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power-to-Gas Systems for Active Load Management at EV Charging Sites with High DER Penetration

Intermittent renewable systems and increasing electric vehicle (EV) penetrations increase load intermittency—and will require expensive distribution system infrastructure upgrades. Power-to-gas (P2G) systems are highly controllable loads that can be modulated to regulate the net load behind the meter. In this work, we present an active load management approach using P2G systems to regulate the net load for an EV charging station with high penetrations of renewable generation. The system also validates the feasibility of the proposed approach using a 750-kW electrolyzer operated with the distribution system in a real-time power-hardware-in-the-loop test. Finally, we evaluate the impact of the size of the P2G system on its ability to regulate the net load.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nanoscale Hybrid Electrolytes with Viscosity Controlled Using Ionic Stimulus for Electrochemical Energy Conversion and Storage

As renewable energy is rapidly integrated into the grid, the challenge has become storing intermittent renewable electricity. Technologies including flow batteries and CO 2 conversion to dense energy carriers are promising storage options for renewable electricity. To achieve this technological advancement, the development of next generation electrolyte materials that can increase the energy density of flow batteries and combine CO 2 capture and conversion is desired. Liquidlike nanoparticle organic hybrid materials (NOHMs) composed of an inorganic core with a tethered polymeric canopy (e.g., polyetheramine (HPE)) have a capability to bind chemical species of interest including CO 2 and redox-active species. In this study, the unique response of NOHM-I-HPE-based electrolytes to salt addition was investigated, including the effects on solution viscosity and structural configurations of the polymeric canopy, impacting transport behaviors. The addition of 0.1 M NaCl drastically lowered the viscosity of NOHM-based electrolytes by up to 90%, reduced the hydrodynamic diameter of NOHM-I-HPE, and increased its self-diffusion coefficient, while the ionic strength did not alter the behaviors of untethered HPE. This study is the first to fundamentally discern the changes in polymer configurations of NOHMs induced by salt addition and provides a comprehensive understanding of the effect of ionic stimulus on their bulk transport properties and local dynamics. These insights could be ultimately employed to tailor transport properties for a range of electrochemical applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gold-in-copper at low *CO coverage enables efficient electromethanation of CO 2

The renewable-electricity-powered CO 2 electroreduction reaction provides a promising means to store intermittent renewable energy in the form of valuable chemicals and dispatchable fuels. Renewable methane produced using CO 2 electroreduction attracts interest due to the established global distribution network; however, present-day efficiencies and activities remain below those required for practical application. Here we exploit the fact that the suppression of *CO dimerization and hydrogen evolution promotes methane selectivity: we reason that the introduction of Au in Cu favors *CO protonation vs. C-C coupling under low *CO coverage and weakens the *H adsorption energy of the surface, leading to a reduction in hydrogen evolution. We construct experimentally a suite of Au-Cu catalysts and control *CO availability by regulating CO 2 concentration and reaction rate. This strategy leads to a 1.6× improvement in the methane:H 2 selectivity ratio compared to the best prior reports operating above 100 mA cm -2 . We as a result achieve a CO 2 -to-methane Faradaic efficiency (FE) of (56 ± 2)% at a production rate of (112 ± 4) mA cm -2 .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gambusia holbrooki Survive Shear Stress, Pressurization and Avoid Blade Strike in a Simulated Pumped Hydroelectric Scheme

Pumped hydroelectric energy storage (PHES) projects are being considered worldwide as a means of achieving political renewable energy targets in a way that stabilises baseload energy supply from often intermittent renewable energy sources. Unlike a conventional hydroelectric system that only pass water in a downstream direction, a feature of PHES is that it relies on the bi-directional flow of water. In some cases this flow can be across different waterbodies or catchments, posing a risk of inadvertently expanding the range of aquatic animals like fish. The risk of this happening depends on the likelihood of survival of individuals, which remains poorly understood for turbines that are pumping rather than generating. This study quantified the survival of a globally widespread and invasive poeciliid fish, Eastern gambusia (Gambusia holbrooki) when exposed hydraulic stresses characteristic of what would be experienced through a PHES during the pumping phase. A shear flume and hyperbaric chamber were used to expose fish to different strain rates and rapid and sustained pressurisation. A blade strike model was also used to predict survival of fish passing through a Francis dual turbine / pump. The ranges simulated were based on design and operational conditions provided for a PHES scheme being proposed in south-eastern Australia. All gambusia tested survived extremely high (up to 7600 kPa gauge pressure) pressurisation, high levels of shear stress (up to 1853 s -1 ), and the majority (> 93 %) were unlikely to be struck by a turbine blade. Given their tolerance to these extreme simulated stresses, we conclude that gambusia will likely survive passage through a PHES scheme. Therefore, where a new PHES poses the risk of inadvertently expanding the range of gambusia or similar poeciliid species, measures to minimise their spread or mitigate their ecosystem impacts should be considered.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A real-time multiphysics model of a pressurized solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) for cyber-physical simulation

Solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC) can play important roles in integrated energy systems (IES) as the hydrogen production hub and the resilience energy hub. When tied to a microgrid with high renewable penetration, the SOEC is subjected to rapid load transitions in response to the intermittent renewable generations that occur not only in diurnal cycles but also in short timeframes (e.g., sub-minute). The cyber-physical simulation approach can derisk operability research but requires a real-time dynamic SOEC model. In the present work, a real-time multiphysics model for pressurized SOEC is developed and validated in the pressure range from 1.4 to 8bar. Further, the accuracy of the single repeating unit (SRU) assumption in SOEC stack simulation is quantified. A guidance of more than 45 cells in one SOEC stack is recommended to safely apply the SRU assumption. Modeling results suggest that at a given current density, more power is consumed by SOEC at elevated operating pressures. The anode air and cathode stream have major impacts on thermal management, highlighting the potential benefit of integrating SOEC with other thermal processes in IES. To achieve high hydrogen production efficiency, the SOEC could operate at the maximum endothermic point to maximize the use of thermal energy. The real-time execution of the developed SOEC model is also demonstrated, which only takes 0.1% of the fixed time step of 5ms. The developed model establishes the basis for cyber-physical simulation of SOEC hybrid systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Protonic Ceramics for Energy Storage & Electricity Generation with Ammonia (Final Report)

The commercial product resulting from this R&D project will enable cost-effective synthesis of the Carbon Neutral Liquid Fuel (CNLF) ammonia, a common chemical, at a small scale for energy and industrial applications using only intermittent renewable energy, water, and air as feedstocks. These products are also capable of producing electrical energy from the CNLF in a fuel cell mode of operation. Thus, the eventual commercial product enables both single direction production of either CLNF or electricity, or alternatively functions as a fully reversible, self-contained energy storage device. The renewed interest in developing electrolysis systems is driven, in part, by the burgeoning renewable, solar, and wind industries and the need for an energy conversion and storage technology that can convert intermittent solar and wind energy into the production of hydrogen. Electrolysis systems integrated into both distributed and central renewable power plants would utilize solar and wind energy as their primary power source to produce renewably generated hydrogen for local energy storage or chemical feedstock purposes. Ammonia is an excellent surrogate for hydrogen transportation. NH3 presents an attractive alternative to hydrogen as a working fluid in reversible devices towards a sustainable green energy-oriented future. Ammonia can be easily liquefied at room temperature at about 8 bar or at -33°C at ambient pressure. In contrast, the liquefaction temperature of hydrogen is -253°C at ambient pressure. NH3 has a significantly higher volumetric energy density (12.7 MJ/L) than compressed hydrogen (4.5 MJ/L at ~70 MPa) or liquefied hydrogen (8.5 MJ/L). Additionally, ammonia is a widely used raw material for agriculture fertilizer and thus has well-established storage, transport, and handling processes (about 180 million tons of ammonia are produced annually). Techno-economic analysis suggests ammonia is the least expensive fuel among hydrogen, gasoline, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, and methanol.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Charge Management for an Inductively Charged On-Demand Battery-Electric Shuttle Service with High Penetration of Renewable Energy

This paper presents a charge management control strategy for an on-demand battery-electric shuttle van operating at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) campus and supported by day-time inductive charging at the vehicle's waiting spot. A new control algorithm has been proposed for reducing the demand charge costs incurred from wireless charging of the on-demand shuttle. A custom controller has been developed to monitor the shuttle, wireless charger, renewable energy generation, and various loads at NREL's campus, and regulate charging behavior for demand response. The intermittent renewable generation and sporadic operation of the on-demand shuttle service contribute to a high level of uncertainty in expected campus load profile, which must be carefully managed. The control algorithm predicts energy profile to estimate the mobility needs of the vehicle and maintain uninterrupted service during operation while still minimizing peak demand. The proposed controller has been designed and optimized using a Simulink model for the entire system. Next, it has been implemented and tested in real-time on the NREL campus. Two primary vehicle-use cases, charge sustaining and charge depletion operation, are tested under different load profiles and drive cycles to assess the controller's effectiveness at reducing peak demand and therefore demand charges. The proposed controller showed robust performance under different driving scenarios with high correlation between simulated and experimental data. The results showed that proper demand response can be achieved with an average of 94% reduction of charging loads during peak demand events.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy and Storage Requirements for NM's Energy Transition Act (SAND Report)

This report provides a study of the potential impacts of climate change on intermittent renewable energy resources, battery storage, and resource adequacy in Public Service Company of New Mexico’s Integrated Resource Plan for 2020 – 2040. Climate change models and available data were first evaluated to determine uncertainty and potential changes in solar irradiance, temperature, and wind speed in NM in the coming decades. These changes were then implemented in solar and wind energy models to determine impacts on renewable energy resources in NM. Results for the extreme climate-change scenario show that the projected wind power may decrease by ~13% due to projected decreases in wind speed. Projected solar power may decrease by ~4% due to decreases in irradiance and increases in temperature in NM. Uncertainty in these climate-induced changes in wind and solar resources was accommodated in probabilistic models assuming uniform distributions in the annual reductions in solar and wind resources. Uncertainty in battery storage performance was also evaluated based on increased temperature, capacity fade, and degradation in round-trip efficiency. The hourly energy balance was determined throughout the year given uncertainties in the renewable energy resources and energy storage. The loss of load expectation (LOLE) was evaluated for the 2040 No New Combustion portfolio and found to increase from 0 days/year to a median value of ~2 days/year due to potential reductions in renewable energy resources and battery storage performance and capacity. A rank-regression analyses revealed that battery round-trip efficiency was the most significant parameter that impacted LOLE, followed by solar resource, wind resource, and battery fade. An increase in battery storage capacity to ~25,000 – 30,000 MWh from a baseline value of ~14,000 MWh was required to reduce the median value of LOLE to ~0.2 days/year with consideration of potential climate impacts and battery degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗