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Forecasts of geomagnetic activity by Ottawa Magnetic Observatory: Their reliabilty and application

A 27 day forecast of geomagnetic activity based on the forecasts from two locations is presented. To evaluate the reliability of the forecasts, the predicted activity was compared with the actual geomagnetic activity at five geomagnetic observatories located in different magnetic zones: Ottawa (57.0N, 351.5E); Meanook (61.8N, 301.0E); Fort Churchill (68.8N, 322.5E); Cambridge Bay (76.7N, 294.0E); and Resolute Bay (83.1N, 287.7E). Results indicate that the percentage of correct predictions varies with the geomagnetic latitude of the observatory used for comparison. The percentage is on the average highest for lower latitude stations and lowest for the northern stations. The number of incorrect predictions ranges from 4.7% for Ottawa to 8.4% for Churchill.

Hruska, J.

Benchmark notch test for life prediction

Aircraft gas turbine engine components are subjected to severe stress, temperature, and environmental conditions. Economic and reliabilty demands have prompted inordinate effort in development of analytic methods to predict stresses and strains in aircraft engines. There remains, however, the need to check or verify these analytical methodologies against actual experimental data measurements. The laser interferometric strain displacement gage was recognized as having the potential to accomplish this task and was employed in this program. The actual strains incurred at the root of a discontinuity in cyclically loaded test samples subjected to inelastic deformation at high temperature where creep deformation readily occur were measured. The steady-state, cyclic stress-strain response at the root of the discontinuity in the tested samples was analyzed for comparison with the measured results. A comprehensive set of local notch root strain measurements for a variety of load patterns in an Inconel 718 notch specimen at 649 C (1200 F) was obtained and documented using the laser interferometric strain displacement gage.

Domas, P. A.

Exponential order statistic models of software reliability growth

Failure times of a software reliabilty growth process are modeled as order statistics of independent, nonidentically distributed exponential random variables. The Jelinsky-Moranda, Goel-Okumoto, Littlewood, Musa-Okumoto Logarithmic, and Power Law models are all special cases of Exponential Order Statistic Models, but there are many additional examples also. Various characterizations, properties and examples of this class of models are developed and presented.

Miller, D. R.

Middeck Active Control Experiment (MACE), phase A

A rationale to determine which structural experiments are sufficient to verify the design of structures employing Controlled Structures Technology was derived. A survey of proposed NASA missions was undertaken to identify candidate test articles for use in the Middeck Active Control Experiment (MACE). The survey revealed that potential test articles could be classified into one of three roles: development, demonstration, and qualification, depending on the maturity of the technology and the mission the structure must fulfill. A set of criteria was derived that allowed determination of which role a potential test article must fulfill. A review of the capabilities and limitations of the STS middeck was conducted. A reference design for the MACE test article was presented. Computing requirements for running typical closed-loop controllers was determined, and various computer configurations were studied. The various components required to manufacture the structure were identified. A management plan was established for the remainder of the program experiment development, flight and ground systems development, and integration to the carrier. Procedures for configuration control, fiscal control, and safety, reliabilty, and quality assurance were developed.

Crawley, Edward F.

Panel: Practical Issues in Implementing Software Reliability Measurement

Many ways of estimating software systems' reliability, or reliability-related quantities, have been developed over the past several years. In this panel, we discuss practical issues to be addressed in implementing software reliabilty measurement techniques in a production development environment.

software reliability software measurement software

Rancor-HUNTER: Using a Simulator Engine for Realistic Human Performance Modeling of Nuclear Power Operations

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) is a software system to simulate human performance in support of human reliability analysis (HRA) in nuclear power plants. This paper summarizes recent work to integrate HUNTER with a plant simulator, namely the Rancor Microworld Simulator. Rancor is an offshoot of earlier work at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to support plant modernization. The graphical software tools used to mimic digital human-system interface upgrades at INL’s Human Systems Simulation Laboratory were linked to the Rancor Microworld Simulator, an INL-developed simplified plant model. HUNTER becomes a “virtual operator” coupled to the Rancor simulator, thereby allowing a tight coupling between a digital human twin and a digital twin of the plant. Rancor-HUNTER may be run through Monte Carlo iterations across a dynamic range of performance shaping factors, thereby producing distributions of human performance in terms of procedure paths, errors instantiations, and task durations. This paper overviews the various unique features of Rancor-HUNTER and presents an example run of Rancor-HUNTER for a startup scenario.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS