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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Combined effects of horizontal and vertical resolution on reliable turbulence prediction at tidal energy sites: A systematic study in the Salish Sea, WA

Predicting turbulence characteristics with coastal ocean models is essential for tidal energy converter deployment. While large eddy simulation provides a detailed turbulence representation, computational limitations restrict its use to smaller domains. We systematically evaluate whether well-configured coastal models can provide reliable turbulence prediction through progressive refinement of 3D model representation. We implemented four model configurations (Levels 1–4) using terrain-following coordinates, isolating the impacts of horizontal resolution, vertical resolution, and layer distribution. We validated all configurations against field measurements from the Salish Sea, WA. Results show that tidal current velocity predictions remain unchanged regarding model configuration, but turbulence properties are sensitive to resolution refinement. Increasing vertical resolution alone proved insufficient; even with vertical sigma-levels rising from 11 to 41, significant underprediction persisted until finer horizontal resolution better captured bathymetric variations. The Level 4 configuration, incorporating geometric sigma-levels distribution, achieved turbulence prediction skill scores exceeding 0.90. Turbulence closure comparison revealed Mellor- Yamada 2.5 outperformed k-epsilon in TKE prediction (skill scores 0.84–0.94 versus 0.72–0.81) due to better boundary layer parameterization. This study shows that well-configured coastal models effectively bridge the gap between simplified tools and costly high-fidelity modeling, offering the tidal energy industry practical and cost-effective turbulence data at commercially relevant scales.

Marine Energy

Model-driven prediction for accelerator magnet diagnostics to improve operation reliability

Reliability is one of the most critical metrics for accelerator operation, especially in user facilities. To reduce costly facility downtime and provide an operational environment where system performance can be reliably predicted in support of scientific studies, we are developing a model-driven approach for prediction and anomaly detection. Here, in this study, we present the application of a model-driven method that employs a linear regression model to predict the future temperature, in real time, of accelerator magnets at the NSLS-II light source. This approach enables proactive identification of magnet-heating issues, facilitating magnet flushing prior to the occurrence of permanent damage without interrupting machine operation. The implementation of this method in the NSLS-II control room is described and the analysis of the online results is presented. The results demonstrate the model’s effectiveness in providing early alerts to engineers and improving the reliability of accelerator operations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Enhancing PV Inverter Reliability Through Predictive Maintenance: Insights from Retrofitting of PV Inverters

Photovoltaic (PV) systems represent a cornerstone in the global shift toward sustainable energy generation, with inverters serving as the crucial link between solar panels and the grid. Despite their pivotal role, inverters are susceptible to failures, contributing significantly to maintenance events and operational disruptions in large-scale PV plants. This white paper investigates the importance and methodologies of predictive maintenance strategies that monitor the component-level pre-failure signatures on PV inverters. Through a comprehensive survey of literature and industry professionals, insights on preventive maintenance and retrofitting practices have been gathered. The expert elicitation helps shed light on common challenges and opportunities for improving PV system reliability, particularly inverter reliability. By addressing these challenges, the white paper aims to enhance the long-term viability and effectiveness of solar PV plants in the renewable energy landscape, contributing to the global transition toward environmentally friendly energy generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Transporter annotations are holding up progress in metabolic modeling

Mechanistic, constraint-based models of microbial isolates or communities are a staple in the metabolic analysis toolbox, but predictions about microbe-microbe and microbe-environment interactions are only as good as the accuracy of transporter annotations. A number of hurdles stand in the way of comprehensive functional assignments for membrane transporters. These include general or non-specific substrate assignments, ambiguity in the localization, directionality and reversibility of a transporter, and the many-to-many mapping of substrates, transporters and genes. In this perspective, we summarize progress in both experimental and computational approaches used to determine the function of transporters and consider paths forward that integrate both. Investment in accurate, high-throughput functional characterization is needed to train the next-generation of predictive tools toward genome-scale metabolic network reconstructions that better predict phenotypes and interactions. More reliable predictions in this domain will benefit fields ranging from personalized medicine to metabolic engineering to microbial ecology.

Casey, John

A data-driven framework for predicting machining stability: employing simulated data, operational modal analysis, and enhanced transfer learning

Chatter, a self-excited vibration phenomenon, presents a significant challenge in machining operations, particularly in high-speed milling, where it can degrade tool life, reduce material removal efficiency, and compromise workpiece quality. Addressing this challenge requires a reliable predictive model that can accommodate the complex dynamics of various machining scenarios. This study introduces a novel, data-driven approach to predicting machining stability, leveraging over 140,000 simulated datasets and employing advanced techniques such as operational modal analysis (OMA), enhanced transfer learning (TL), and receptance coupling substructure analysis (RCSA). By integrating these methodologies, the framework effectively classifies and predicts chatter across diverse operational modes, achieving robust and accurate outcomes. Our model utilizes a Random Forest (RF) classifier trained with the comprehensive dataset, which demonstrates substantial improvements in both predictive accuracy and robustness. Specifically, the RF model achieved an accuracy rate of 85%, an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90, and an F1 score of 0.88, underscoring its capability to adapt to varying machining configurations. These results highlight the framework’s potential to enhance operational efficiency and machining quality by providing reliable chatter predictions across a broad range of machining parameters. In conclusion, this research thus offers a significant advancement in predictive maintenance for machining processes, enabling more stable and efficient manufacturing operations.

42 ENGINEERING

Leveraging transfer learning and leaf spectroscopy for leaf trait prediction with broad spatial, species, and temporal applicability

Accurate and reliable prediction of leaf traits is crucial for understanding plant adaptations to environmental variation, monitoring terrestrial ecosystems, and enhancing comprehension of functional diversity and ecosystem functioning. Currently, various approaches (e.g., statistical, physical models) have been developed to estimate leaf traits through hyperspectral remote sensing and leaf spectroscopy. However, the absence of high-performing, transferable, and stable models across various domains of space, plant functional types (PFTs) and seasons hinder our ability to quantify and comprehend spatiotemporal variations in leaf traits. This study proposes robust and highly transferable models for better predicting leaf traits with hyperspectral reflectance. Initially, three datasets were assembled, pairing common leaf traits — chlorophyll (Chla+b), carotenoids (Ccar), leaf mass per area (LAM), equivalent water thickness (EWT) — with leaf spectra measurements collected across diverse geographic locations in the U.S. and Europe, PFTs, and seasons. Measurements were acquired using spectroradiometers (e.g., ASD FieldSpec 3/4/Pro and SVC HR-1024i) with integrating spheres, leaf clips, and contact probes. Here, we then developed transfer learning-based hybrid models that incorporated the domain knowledge of radiative transfer models (RTMs) through pretraining processes and were well-constrained by fine-tuning with field measurements. Through comparison with other state-of-the-art statistical models, including partial-least squares regression (PLSR) and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), as well as pure physical models, we found that the proposed transfer learning models achieved better predictive performance and higher transferability. Specifically, compared to other statistical models and pure RTMs, the transfer learning model exhibited higher coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values with range of 0.01 to 0.79, lower normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) with range of 0.06 % to 33.25 % in model performance. Additionally, the models exhibited improved transferability, with higher R 2 values range from 0.04 to 0.32, lower NRMSE range from 0.08 % to 30.81 %. The findings underscore that transfer learning models through integrating domain knowledge from RTMs and limited observations, can harness the advantages of both RTMs and statistical models and serve as a promising approach for effectively predicting leaf traits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

The search for high-entropy fuel-cell catalysts using disorder descriptors

The transition to a hydrogen economy depends on efficient, affordable catalysts for fuel cells. Platinum—the industry standard for fuel-cell electrodes—is costly and scarce, highlighting the need for practical alternatives. High-entropy alloys offer vast compositional diversity and tunable properties that can mitigate these issues, yet their chemical complexity and configurational disorder have hindered rational discovery. Here, we introduce a data-driven framework that couples machine learning with first-principles disorder descriptors—including the entropy forming ability, disordered enthalpy-entropy descriptor, and electronic-structure similarity metrics to platinum—to predict alloy synthesizability and catalytic performance. These descriptors are applied for the first time in the context of fuel-cell catalyst discovery. The workflow rapidly screens more than 20 000 compositions and identifies several platinum-free candidates that are economically viable, readily scalable, and exhibit promising predicted activity. These results demonstrate that disorder descriptors are reliably predicted by machine learning models and can be effectively integrated into materials-discovery pipelines, accelerating innovation across complex compositional spaces.

fuel-cell catalysts

Reproducibility of fixed-node diffusion Monte Carlo across diverse community codes: The case of water–methane dimer

Fixed-node diffusion quantum Monte Carlo (FN-DMC) is a widely trusted many-body method for solving the Schrödinger equation, known for its reliable predictions of material and molecular properties. Furthermore, its excellent scalability with system complexity and near-perfect utilization of computational power make FN-DMC ideally positioned to leverage new advances in computing to address increasingly complex scientific problems. Even though the method is widely used as a computational gold standard, reproducibility across the numerous FN-DMC code implementations has yet to be demonstrated. This difficulty stems from the diverse array of DMC algorithms and trial wave functions, compounded by the method’s inherent stochastic nature. Here, this study represents a community-wide effort to assess the reproducibility of the method, affirming that yes, FN-DMC is reproducible (when handled with care). Using the water–methane dimer as the canonical test case, we compare results from eleven different FN-DMC codes and show that the approximations to treat the non-locality of pseudopotentials are the primary source of the discrepancies between them. In particular, we demonstrate that, for the same choice of determinantal component in the trial wave function, reliable and reproducible predictions can be achieved by employing the T-move, the determinant locality approximation, or the determinant T-move schemes, while the older locality approximation leads to considerable variability in results. These findings demonstrate that, with appropriate choices of algorithmic details, fixed-node DMC is reproducible across diverse community codes—highlighting the maturity and robustness of the method as a tool for open and reliable computational science.

Della Pia, Flaviano [Univ. of Cambridge (United Ki

Foaming prediction in pure liquids from dimensionless numbers inspired by the theory of fluid behavior for drops

Foaming prediction is critical for selecting materials and designing processes in industries such as bioprocessing and gas processing. Existing models lack the generality needed for a wide range of materials and overlook the foaming behavior in pure liquids. Here, this work presents a novel method for predicting foaming in pure liquids based on their density, surface tension, and viscosity, using Reynolds ( Re ) and Ohnesorge ( Oh ) numbers. A foaming prediction map, leveraging the theory of fluid drop behavior, was developed by plotting these numbers. This map delineates distinct non-foaming and foaming regions, functioning as a binary classifier for foaming predictions. The map was fitted and validated through shake test experiments on 46 liquids, demonstrating reliable predictions, except for a specific region characterized by small Oh and large Re numbers. This region corresponded to relatively low foam stability and high turbulence, making foaming predictions challenging for liquids in this category.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Multiphysics simulation of TRISO fuel compacts and the effects of homogenization on silver release predictions

This work studies the impact of explicit and homogenized modeling approaches on the multiphysics simulation of TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel compacts in prismatic High Temperature Gas Reactors (HTGRs) and the silver release predictions. TRISO fuel compacts exhibit complex double heterogeneity that significantly affects heat conduction, neutron transport, and fission products release. In this work, we use Cardinal, a multiphysics tool based on the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework, to couple neutron transport and heat conduction. OpenMC is used for neutron transport and the MOOSE heat transfer module is used for the heat conduction. Then, we use BISON for the silver release predictions. Two different modeling approaches—explicit modeling of individual TRISO particles and homogenized representation using effective thermal properties—are compared at high TRISO packing fractions (20% and 40%) across varying power densities. Results demonstrate that homogenization significantly under-predicts peak temperatures, for the case of high power/TRISO, there is a difference of 83.73 K in the maximum temperature. Additionally, homogenization underestimates the silver release predictions compared to explicit modeling. Specifically, the temperature and power density differences lead to significant differences in silver release predictions. This work demonstrates the importance of accurately modeling heterogeneity of the TRISO particles to reliably predict fission product release and assess reactor safety margins.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Integration of Condition-Based, Diagnostic, Prognostic, And Anomaly Detection Data into Reliability Models to Support a Predictive Maintenance Context

Reliability data employed in plant reliability models are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating actual health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). This paper proposes a reliability modeling approach that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. We show how state-of-the art condition-based, diagnostic, prognostic, and anomaly detection models can be linked to system reliability models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Then, we show how the propagation of margin data from the asset to the system level is performed through classical reliability models such as fault trees or reliability block diagrams. The described method is in fact able to propagate heterogenous health data from the asset to the system level in order to analytically assess system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Effect of stress and temperature on zero group velocity Lamb modes

Zero group velocity (ZGV) Lamb wave resonances are highly localized and sensitive to changes in material properties, making them a viable option for probing residual stresses and elastic nonlinearity through acoustoelastic effects. Temperature changes also influence ZGV modes and need to be accounted for, particularly when measuring the small frequency shifts associated with acoustoelastic effects. We use a laser-based ultrasonic system to measure the third-order elastic constants of several materials. A temperature compensation scheme is devised to remove the effects of temperature fluctuations from the measurements. Furthermore, the measured third-order elastic constants are used to predict the temperature dependence of the ZGV resonances using thermo-acoustoelasticity theory, and these predictions are compared to experimental measurements. We find that thermo-acoustoelasticity theory was unable to reliably predict the shift in ZGV resonances with temperature. These results could have important implications in understanding the limitations of thermo-acoustoelasticity theory and in developing precision ZGV resonance-based systems to detect and quantify residual stress in parts, a particularly relevant problem in additive manufacturing techniques including powder bed fusion and directed energy deposition.

Engineering

The relationship between gene traits and transcription in soil microbial communities varies by environmental stimulus

Codon and nucleotide frequencies are known to relate to the rate of gene transcription, yet how these traits shape transcriptional profiles of soil microbial communities remains unclear. Here we test the prediction that functional genes with high codon optimization and energetically lower cost nucleotides (i.e., nucleotides requiring less adenosine triphosphate (ATP) for synthesis) have higher transcriptional expression in a soil microbial community. In laboratory incubations, we subjected an agricultural soil to two separate short-term environmental changes: labile carbon (glucose) addition or a sudden 30-min increase in temperature from 20 °C to 60 °C. Using the total genomic codon frequencies to predict preferred codon usage for each taxon, we then estimated codon optimization for each transcript. On the community level, we found a higher average level of codon optimization after the addition of glucose. Synonymous nucleotide composition in the transcript pool also shifted towards energetically cheaper nucleotides, favoring uracil (U) over adenine (A) and cytosine (C) over guanine (G). Similarly, we found that encoded amino acid usage shifted towards energetically cheaper amino acids in response to labile carbon. In contrast, in communities responding to heat shock, there were no significant differences in the averaged gene traits of expressed transcripts. We used metagenome-assembled-genomes to further examine the ability of gene traits to predict transcriptional responses within and between taxa. We found that traits of individual genes could not reliably predict the level of transcription of a gene within or between taxa—highlighting the limits of this approach. However, we did find that when traits were averaged across several related genes, codon optimization was able to predict levels of transcription in metabolic pathways associated with growth and nutrient uptake in response to glucose. Similar relationships were not observed in response to heat, or for functions associated with stress—such as genes associated with sporulation or heat shock. These results demonstrate that gene traits, such as codon usage, nucleotide selection, and amino acid selection, relate to the transcriptional expression of genes in soil microbial communities and suggests that these relationships may be dependent on both gene function and the specific type of environmental stimuli.

Biological and medical sciences

Graph neural networks for CO 2 solubility predictions in Deep Eutectic Solvents

Deep Eutectic Solvents (DESs) are a promising class of solvents for CO 2 capture. DESs are complex mixtures that can be designed to optimize CO solubility and overall capture process efficiency. However, the vast design landscape of DES mixtures makes experimental investigation prohibitive; as such, there is a need for computational models that can quickly and efficiently navigate the design space and inform data collection efforts. In this work, we propose Graph Neural Network (GNN) models for predicting CO 2 solubility for DESs; the GNN leverages a mixture graph representation that captures the molecular structure of the DES components as well as their intermolecular interactions. Here, we compare the GNN framework against alternative architectures (neural networks, graph convolution networks, and random forests) and data representations (molecular fingerprints, sigma profiles, and graphs). We show that the proposed approach offers superior predictive performance; specifically, we show that solubility can be predicted reliably directly from molecular structure (without the need of using sigma profiles as proposed in previous studies). This result is important, as obtaining sigma profiles requires expensive density functional theory computations. We also explored the ability of GNNs to predict solubility for new DES mixtures and operating conditions. We found that the model extrapolates across temperature reliably. However, we also found deficiencies in the ability of the model to predict solubility for DES mixtures, pressures, and molar ratio not included in the training sets; we show that this is due to an inherent lack of chemical diversity in datasets available in the literature. The proposed computational capabilities can thus help navigate the design space of DES and inform data collection efforts. Our models, data, and benchmarks are shared as Python code implemented in Jupyter notebooks.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Utilizing machine learning to predict tensile ductility and yield strength of CoNiV-based multi-principal elements alloys

This study explores the use of machine learning (ML) as a computational tool to accelerate the design of multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs) with improved tensile elongation. An ML model was trained using available experimental data from the literature along with theoretically derived features to predict yield strength (YS) and ductility. A subset of ML-predicted compositions—CoNiVFe, CoNiVTi, CoNiVTiFe, and CoCrNiVTi—was synthesized and evaluated through tensile testing. The ML model underpredicted YS by approximately 20–30 % and overpredicted ductility by 60–70 % for Ti-containing alloys. Microstructural analysis revealed that Ti segregation at interdendritic regions contributed to early fracture, leading to discrepancies in ductility predictions. Ti segregation at these regions likely drives the increased YS due to segregation strengthening. In contrast, the CoNiVFe alloy showed good agreement with both experimental YS and elongation, with prediction errors of ∼10.2 % and ∼20.7 %, respectively. Microstructural characterization revealed minimal segregation in this alloy, suggesting that the ML model can reliably predict the properties of alloys with little to no segregation. These findings highlight the capability of ML in predicting YS with good accuracy but underscore its limitations in capturing defect-driven failure mechanisms such as segregation-induced embrittlement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

A framework for strategic discovery of credible neural network surrogate models under uncertainty

The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. Here, this study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.

42 ENGINEERING

From atomistic models to machine learning: Predictive design of nanocarbons under extreme conditions

The formation of technologically valuable nanocarbon structures under extreme conditions, such as those produced during high-explosive detonations, remains poorly understood but holds significant potential for the development of controlled synthesis pathways. While detonation shockwaves provide the high-pressure, high-temperature environment required for nanodiamond formation, subsequent cooling and decompression dictate whether the diamond phase is preserved or transformed into other nanocarbon structures. Here, in this study, we employ GPU-accelerated reactive molecular dynamics (ReaxFF) simulations to investigate the graphitization and structural remodeling of detonation nanodiamond under nonlinear quench and pressure-release trajectories. We further investigate how the initial nanodiamond morphology; cuboctahedral, octahedral, or hexagonal prism influences the resulting transformation products. Evolution of nanostructure, allotrope (via simulated x-ray diffraction), carbon hybridization, and ring statistics are tracked during a two-stage quench from 5000 K to 60 GPa. Rapid cooling combined with slow decompression optimizes cubic diamond retention, whereas slow cooling with rapid pressure release promotes surface-to-core graphitization, producing concentric sp 2 -hybridized layers and hollowed inner shells. Octahedral nanodiamonds evolve into carbon nano-onions, initially forming bucky diamonds that progressively transform into fully sp 2 -hybridized structures, while hexagonal prisms preferentially form parallel-stacked graphite layers resembling carbon dots. Transient hexagonal diamond (lonsdaleite) emerges as an interfacial phase, suggesting potential reversibility in the shock-induced graphite-to-diamond transformation pathway transformation route. To extend predictive capabilities, we trained machine learning (ML) regressors on over 10 5 node-hours of molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model reliably predicts the number of graphitized layers from temperature–pressure trajectories with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) exceeding 0.90. This high predictive fidelity enables efficient, high-throughput mapping of the synthesis parameter space for optimized graphitization outcomes. Collectively, morphological control combined with optimized quench–decompression conditions promote the selective synthesis of nanocarbon allotropes. This work establishes a data-driven framework for the rational, a priori design of carbon nanomaterials for applications in energy storage, sensing, and biomedicine.

Detonation nanodiamond remodeling

Effects of non-equilibrium ionization and excitation on radiation absorption in plasma plumes induced by ablation of metal targets with nanosecond laser pulses

Ionization and radiation absorption in nanosecond laser-induced plasma plumes are routinely modeled using the Saha–Boltzmann equilibrium ionization model (EQM). However, the equilibrium assumption can be inaccurate during the laser pulse when non-equilibrium effects significantly impact radiation absorption. In the present work, the EQM and non-equilibrium collisional-radiative model (CRM) are compared to reveal the effect of plasma non-equilibrium on radiation absorption in non-homogeneous plumes and degree of plasma shielding. Simulations of plume expansion induced by irradiation of a copper target in 1 atm argon background gas with a 10 ns Gaussian pulse at a fluence from 8 Jcm −2 to 14 Jcm −2 are performed with a hybrid computational model that couples a lumped particle direct simulation Monte Carlo method with either CRM or EQM. The simulations show that the EQM strongly underestimates the effects of ionization and radiation absorption compared to CRM and, contrary to the CRM, predict strong ionization of the background gas. The differences between the models are explained by the qualitatively different coupling between plume expansion and dynamics of ionization and exitation processes in the CRM and EQM under conditions when the characteristic times for most radiation- and electron-induced processes are longer than the pulse duration. The CRM-based predictions are also found to agree much better with available experimental data. In conclusion, these results indicate that the model of Saha–Boltzmann equilibrium cannot be used for reliable prediction of the degree of plasma shielding in plumes induced by nanosecond laser pulses or for processing results of spectroscopic measurements at early stages of expansion of such plumes.

Physics - Plasma physics