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Kepler Planet Reliability Metrics: Astrophysical Positional Probabilities for Data Release 25

This document is very similar to KSCI-19092-003, Planet Reliability Metrics: Astrophysical Positional Probabilities, which describes the previous release of the astrophysical positional probabilities for Data Release 24. The important changes for Data Release 25 are:1. The computation of the astrophysical positional probabilities uses the Data Release 25 processed pixel data for all Kepler Objects of Interest.2. Computed probabilities now have associated uncertainties, whose computation is described in x4.1.3.3. The scene modeling described in x4.1.2 uses background stars detected via ground-based high-resolution imaging, described in x5.1, that are not in the Kepler Input Catalog or UKIRT catalog. These newly detected stars are presented in Appendix B. Otherwise the text describing the algorithms and examples is largely unchanged from KSCI-19092-003.

APP↗

Structural Life and Reliability Metrics: Benchmarking and Verification of Probabilistic Life Prediction Codes

Over the past two decades there has been considerable effort by NASA Glenn and others to develop probabilistic codes to predict with reasonable engineering certainty the life and reliability of critical components in rotating machinery and, more specifically, in the rotating sections of airbreathing and rocket engines. These codes have, to a very limited extent, been verified with relatively small bench rig type specimens under uniaxial loading. Because of the small and very narrow database the acceptance of these codes within the aerospace community has been limited. An alternate approach to generating statistically significant data under complex loading and environments simulating aircraft and rocket engine conditions is to obtain, catalog and statistically analyze actual field data. End users of the engines, such as commercial airlines and the military, record and store operational and maintenance information. This presentation describes a cooperative program between the NASA GRC, United Airlines, USAF Wright Laboratory, U.S. Army Research Laboratory and Australian Aeronautical & Maritime Research Laboratory to obtain and analyze these airline data for selected components such as blades, disks and combustors. These airline data will be used to benchmark and compare existing life prediction codes.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗

Metrics for in-space telescope assembly techniques

Reliable metrics are not yet available for choosing among human and robotic assets for space-based construction and servicing of large space telescopes. Using FAIR-DART as a reference design, we generated example event sequences for telescope assembly scenarios in enough detail to identify infrastructure assumptions and technology requirements. A systems trade among human and robotic techniques (human EVA, on-site telerobotic, ground-in-the- loop robotic, commanded or sequenced robotic, and autonomous/decision-making robotic) helped us to define key metrics in the human-robotic trade space, including quality, time, cost, and risk. Our methodology included examining representative end-member scenarios. Case A treated each step in the assembly sequence as if all other steps have no on-site human involvement, and Case B treated each step as if human EVA is already involved in all other steps. With this trade, we identified key enabling technologies and infrastructure for space-based assembly and servicing of large space telescopes.

space telescopes human and robotic in-space assemb↗

Metrics of Balance Control for Use in Screening Tests of Vestibular Function

Decrements in balance control have been documented in astronauts after space flight. Reliable measures of balance control are needed for use in postflight field tests at remote landing sites. Diffusion analysis (DA) is a statistical mechanical tool that shows the average difference of the dependent variable on varying time scales. These techniques have been shown to measure differences in open-loop and closed-loop postural control in astronauts and elderly subjects. The goal of this study was to investigate the reliability of these measures of balance control. Eleven subjects were tested using the Clinical Test of Sensory Interaction on Balance: the subject stood with feet together and arms crossed on a stable or compliant surface, with eyes open or closed and with or without head movements in the pitch or yaw plane. Subjects were instrumented with inertial motion sensors attached to their trunk segment. The DA curves for linear acceleration measures were characterized by linear fits measuring open- (Ds) and closed-loop (Dl) control, and their intersection point (X-int, Y-int). Ds and Y-int showed significant differences between the test conditions. Additionally, Ds was correlated with the root mean square (RMS) of the signal, indicating that RMS was dominated by open-loop events (< 0.5 seconds). The Y-int was found to be correlated with the average linear velocity of trunk movements. Thus DA measures could be applied to derive reliable metrics of balance stability during field tests.

Fiedler, Matthew↗

Reliability Considerations for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels on Spacecraft

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are used to store gases under high pressure onboard spacecraft. These are used for a variety of purposes such as propelling liquid fuel etc, Kevlar, glass, Carbon and other more recent fibers have all been in use to overwrap the vessels. COPVs usually have a thin metallic liner with the primary purpose of containing the gases and prevent any leakage. The liner is overwrapped with filament wound composite such as Kevlar, Carbon or Glass fiber. Although the liner is required to perform in the leak before break mode making the failure a relatively benign mode, the overwrap can fail catastrophically under sustained load due to stress rupture. It is this failure mode that is of major concern as the stored energy of such vessels is often great enough ta cause loss of crew and vehicle. The present paper addresses some of the reliability concerns associated specifically with Kevlar Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels. The primary focus of the paper is on how reliability of COPV's are established for the purpose of deciding in general their flight worthiness and continued use. Analytical models based on existing design data will be presented showing how to achieve the required reliability metric to the end of a specific period of performance. Uncertainties in the design parameters and how they affect reliability and confidence intervals will be addressed as well. Some trade studies showing how reliability changes with time during a program period will be presented.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗

Reliability Analysis and Standardization of Spacecraft Command Generation Processes

center dot In order to reduce commanding errors that are caused by humans, we create an approach and corresponding artifacts for standardizing the command generation process and conducting risk management during the design and assurance of such processes. center dot The literature review conducted during the standardization process revealed that very few atomic level human activities are associated with even a broad set of missions. center dot Applicable human reliability metrics for performing these atomic level tasks are available. center dot The process for building a "Periodic Table" of Command and Control Functions as well as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models is demonstrated. center dot The PRA models are executed using data from human reliability data banks. center dot The Periodic Table is related to the PRA models via Fault Links.

human errors.↗

Production of Reliable Flight Crucial Software: Validation Methods Research for Fault Tolerant Avionics and Control Systems Sub-Working Group Meeting

The state of the art in the production of crucial software for flight control applications was addressed. The association between reliability metrics and software is considered. Thirteen software development projects are discussed. A short term need for research in the areas of tool development and software fault tolerance was indicated. For the long term, research in format verification or proof methods was recommended. Formal specification and software reliability modeling, were recommended as topics for both short and long term research.

Dunham, J. R.↗

A Reliability Model to Assess Reliability of Shuttle Derived Launch Vehicle and Next Generation Vehicles

One important thrust in NASA s space exploration vision is to improve the safety and reliability of future launch vehicles. A quantitative reliability model is an essential technical tool to evaluate launch vehicle reliability and to enhance launch vehicle configuration down selection and detailed designs. A quantitative reliability model that supports NASA's thrust has been developed and implemented in an MS Excel spreadsheet. The model addresses key reliability parameters, and provides for sensitivity analysis of various vehicle designs. This paper presents the specific elements of the model and examples of selected sensitivity analysis results. Reliability input parameters in the model include the following: 1. Main propulsion element failure probability; 2. Propulsion element catastrophic failure fraction (Cf). This is defined as the ratio of probability of uncontained failures over sum of probability of uncontained failures and contained failures); 3. Engine-out design vs. no-engine-out design; 4. Engine with redlines vs. no redlines; 5. Different levels of health management system implementation; 6. Launch Escape System (LES) reliability; and 7. Power level correlation with reliability. The sensitivity results will illustrate the impact of each of the above parameters on several reliability metrics: Loss of Mission (LOM), LOV (Loss of Vehicle) and Loss of Crew (LOC).

Huang, Zhao↗

Reliability-Based Control Design for Uncertain Systems

This paper presents a robust control design methodology for systems with probabilistic parametric uncertainty. Control design is carried out by solving a reliability-based multi-objective optimization problem where the probability of violating design requirements is minimized. Simultaneously, failure domains are optimally enlarged to enable global improvements in the closed-loop performance. To enable an efficient numerical implementation, a hybrid approach for estimating reliability metrics is developed. This approach, which integrates deterministic sampling and asymptotic approximations, greatly reduces the numerical burden associated with complex probabilistic computations without compromising the accuracy of the results. Examples using output-feedback and full-state feedback with state estimation are used to demonstrate the ideas proposed.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Identifying Climate-Smart Agriculture Research Needs

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach to help agricultural systems worldwide, concurrently addressing three challenge areas: increased adaptation to climate change, mitigation of climate change, and ensuring global food security - through innovative policies, practices, and financing. It involves a set of objectives and multiple transformative transitions for which there are newly identified knowledge gaps. We address these questions raised by CSA within three areas: conceptualization, implementation, and implications for policy and decision-makers. We also draw up scenarios on the future of the CSA concept in relation to the 4 per 1000 Initiative (Soils for Food Security and Climate) launched at UNFCCC 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21). Our analysis shows that there is still a need for further interdisciplinary research on the theoretical foundation of the CSA concept and on the necessary transformations of agriculture and land use systems. Contrasting views about implementation indicate that CSA focus on the ''triple win'' (adaptation, mitigation, food security) needs to be assessed in terms of science-based practices. CSA policy tools need to incorporate an integrated set of measures supported by reliable metrics. Environmental and social safeguards are necessary to make sure that CSA initiatives conform to the principles of sustainability, both at the agriculture and food system levels.

mitigation↗

The Arctic Sea Ice Cover of 2016: A Year of Record-Low Highs and High-Than-Expected Lows

The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative “compactness†of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/ dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, "New Arctic", sea ice regime.

sea ice↗

PCB Quality Metrics that Drive Reliability

Risk-based technology infusion is a deliberate and systematic process that defines the analysis and communication methodology by which new technology is applied and integrated into existing and new designs, identifies technology development needs based on trends analysis and facilitates the identification of shortfalls against performance objectives. This presentation at IPC Works Asia Aerospace 2021 Events provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed-wiring-board quality, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PWB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on printed-wiring-board quality metrics used, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across PWB suppliers, the root cause(s) behind these non-conformance and suggestions of mitigation plans. The trends are then matched with the current state of the PWB supplier base and its challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the risk-based SMA approaches and methods being applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate printed wiring board technologies that promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.

Printed circuit boards↗

PCB Quality Metrics that Drive Reliability (PD 18)

Risk based technology infusion is a deliberate and systematic process which defines the analysis and communication methodology by which new technology is applied and integrated into existing and new designs, identifies technology development needs based on trends analysis and facilitates the identification of shortfalls against performance objectives. This presentation at IPC Works Asia Aerospace 2019 Events provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed wiring board quality, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PWB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on printed wiring board quality metrics used, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across PWB suppliers, the root cause(s) behind these non-conformance and suggestions of mitigation plans. The trends will then be matched with the current state of the PWB supplier base and its challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the risk based SMA approaches and methods being applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate printed wiring board technologies which promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.

Sood, Bhanu↗

Using software metrics and software reliability models to attain acceptable quality software for flight and ground support software for avionic systems

This paper is concerned with methods of measuring and developing quality software. Reliable flight and ground support software is a highly important factor in the successful operation of the space shuttle program. Reliability is probably the most important of the characteristics inherent in the concept of 'software quality'. It is the probability of failure free operation of a computer program for a specified time and environment.

Lawrence, Stella↗

Software development predictors, error analysis, reliability models and software metric analysis

The use of dynamic characteristics as predictors for software development was studied. It was found that there are some significant factors that could be useful as predictors. From a study on software errors and complexity, it was shown that meaningful results can be obtained which allow insight into software traits and the environment in which it is developed. Reliability models were studied. The research included the field of program testing because the validity of some reliability models depends on the answers to some unanswered questions about testing. In studying software metrics, data collected from seven software engineering laboratory (FORTRAN) projects were examined and three effort reporting accuracy checks were applied to demonstrate the need to validate a data base. Results are discussed.

Basili, Victor↗

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Basili, Victor R.↗

Determining Component Probability using Problem Report Data for Ground Systems used in Manned Space Flight

During the shuttle era NASA utilized a failure reporting system called the Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) it purpose was to identify and track system non-conformance. The PRACA system over the years evolved from a relatively nominal way to identify system problems to a very complex tracking and report generating data base. The PRACA system became the primary method to categorize any and all anomalies from corrosion to catastrophic failure. The systems documented in the PRACA system range from flight hardware to ground or facility support equipment. While the PRACA system is complex, it does possess all the failure modes, times of occurrence, length of system delay, parts repaired or replaced, and corrective action performed. The difficulty is mining the data then to utilize that data in order to estimate component, Line Replaceable Unit (LRU), and system reliability analysis metrics. In this paper, we identify a methodology to categorize qualitative data from the ground system PRACA data base for common ground or facility support equipment. Then utilizing a heuristic developed for review of the PRACA data determine what reports identify a credible failure. These data are the used to determine inter-arrival times to perform an estimation of a metric for repairable component-or LRU reliability. This analysis is used to determine failure modes of the equipment, determine the probability of the component failure mode, and support various quantitative differing techniques for performing repairable system analysis. The result is that an effective and concise estimate of components used in manned space flight operations. The advantage is the components or LRU's are evaluated in the same environment and condition that occurs during the launch process.

Monaghan, Mark W.↗