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Computational Workflows for Uncertainty-Quantified Nuclear Reactions: From Nuclear Theory Inputs to Astrophysical Reaction Rates

Reactions on unstable nuclei, particularly those on the neutron-rich side of stability, are important for both fundamental and applied physics. For fundamental science, the most prevalent use case is astrophysi cal nucleosynthesis by rapid neutron capture—the r-process—by which heavy nuclei are formed in extreme astrophysical environments, such as in supernovae and neutron star mergers; see, e.g., Refs. [1–3]. For ap plications, these processes are relevant for the interpretation of radiochemical data from historic nuclear tests, which contribute to our ability to certify the enduring stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing [4]; see Ref. [5] for a broader discussion of applications. However, reaction cross sections involving unsta ble species are generally poorly understood, for the simple reason that useful data become scarce as one moves away from stability. While there are avenues for improving the amount and quality of data for these species [6], one is fundamentally reliant on nuclear theory to make progress on these fields of study.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NCERC-CL TREAT Free Field Characterization Foil Reaction Rate Results

This report summarizes the analysis and preliminary MCNP reaction rate modeling of free field characterization measurements performed in the Transient Reaction Test Facility (TREAT) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) between 12/18/2023 and 2/22/2024. A series of seven irradiations were performed using the Big-BUSTER (Broad Use Specimen Transient Experiment Rig) core configuration. Foil sets including 19.5% LEU-Zr alloy wire, S, Au, Fe, Ni, Co, Ti, and Zr were deployed in each irradiation. Identical foil sets were supplied to Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and INL. All foils were supplied by INL. Additional details on the experiment can be found in [2]. The foil sets were shipped to the National Criticality Experiments Research Center Counting Laboratory (NCERC-CL) branch at LANL (NCERC-CL NISC) and were received on 3/25/2024. Additional details on receipt and counting are reported in [3]. All reactor dosimetry measurements were performed in adherence to the ASTM standards applicable to reactor dosimetry. Measured reaction rates from Au, Co, Fe, Ni, and Ti are reported. Select reaction rate ratios and simulated reaction rates and ratios are discussed. Reaction rates for all measured reaction products were modeled with MCNP 6.3.1 and a TREAT input deck supplied by Edward Lum. Neutron emission estimates calculated using the measured and simulated reaction rates show excellent agreement between the three fast-threshold n-p reactions with the percent differences being < 9% between the three reactions. The capture reactions had poorer, but still reasonable, agreement with < 20% percent differences between the neutron emission estimates of the three capture reactions. The percent difference between the fast-threshold and capture reactions is ∼ 100% for each reaction. This supports the TREAT model is not accurately modeling the neutron spectrum and additional measurements are required to characterize TREAT and match measurements to simulation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Reaction Rate Ratios for Recent Fast Metal Experiments with Large Plutonium Masses

Reaction rate ratios are integral responses that are used within the criticality experiments field because they contain spectral information. While these types of measurements have been utilized for nuclear data validation with historic experiments, few experiments of this type have been utilized for recent experiments, as few exist. This work focuses on measured reaction rate ratios for two nearly bare plutonium critical assemblies with different geometries: one that is cube like (with a Pu mass of 40 kg) and one that is slab like (with a Pu mass of 109 kg). Irradiations were performed with both configurations in which foils were placed near the center of the assembly. Plutonium, highly enriched uranium, depleted uranium, and Au foils were included in the irradiation and counted via high-purity germanium detectors. From these measurements, reaction rate ratios were calculated. Measured and simulated values and uncertainties are presented for the reaction rate ratios. Ratios utilizing the following reactions are given in this work: 197 Au(n, γ), 197 Au(n,2n), 235 U(n,fission), 238 U(n, fission), 238 U(n,2n), 238 U(n,γ), and 239 Pu(n,fission). Uncertainties for the measured reaction rate ratios ranged from 4% to 7%, and the contribution of various parameters to this uncertainty was investigated. The results are compared to historical experiments and should be used for nuclear data validation for future nuclear data library releases. These measurements are part of the EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) project, which utilizes measurement responses in addition to k eff (such as these reaction rate ratios) to help reduce uncertainties in 239 Pu nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The 2025 Evaluation of Experimental Thermonuclear Reaction Rates (ETR25)

This work describes the formalism for estimating thermonuclear reaction rates for astrophysical applications, emphasizing modern statistical approaches such as Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian models. We discuss related topics including the calculation of resonance energies from nuclear Q values, indirect estimates of particle partial widths, and matching of reaction rates at elevated temperatures to statistical model results. We have evaluated available experimental data on cross sections, resonance energies and strengths, partial widths, lifetimes, spin-parities, and spectroscopic factors. Based on these results, we have estimated numerical values of 78 experimental charged-particle thermonuclear reaction rates for target nuclei in the A = 2–40 mass region, for temperatures ranging from 1 MK to 10 GK. For each reaction, three rate values are provided: low, median, and high, corresponding to the 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles, respectively, of the cumulative reaction rate probability density distribution. Additionally, we present the factor uncertainty of each rate at each temperature grid point. These results enable users to sample the reaction rate probability density in nucleosynthesis calculations, facilitating uncertainty estimates of nuclidic abundances. The rates presented here refer to their laboratory values. For use in stellar model simulations, these values need to be corrected for the effects of thermal excitations of the interacting nuclei. For each reaction, we include graphs that illustrate the fractional contributions to the overall reaction rate along with the associated uncertainty. These visuals are designed to assist both stellar modelers and nuclear experimentalists by identifying the primary sources of rate uncertain=^texttx);ty at specific stellar temperatures. A graphical comparison with earlier Monte Carlo rates is also provided.

Nuclear astrophysics↗

Thermonuclear 28 P(p, γ ) 29 S reaction rate and astrophysical implication in ONe nova explosion

An accurate 28 P(p, γ) 29 S reaction rate is crucial to defining the nucleosynthesis products of explosive hydrogen burning in ONe novae. Using the recently released nuclear mass of 29 S, together with a shell model and a direct capture calculation, we reanalyzed the 28 P(p, γ) 29 S thermonuclear reaction rate and its astrophysical implication. We focus on improving the astrophysical rate for 28 P(p, γ) 29 S based on the newest nuclear mass data. Our goal is to explore the impact of the new rate and associated uncertainties on the nova nucleosynthesis. We evaluated this reaction rate via the sum of the isolated resonance contribution instead of the previously used Hauser-Feshbach statistical model. The corresponding rate uncertainty at different energies was derived using a Monte Carlo method. Nova nucleosynthesis is computed with the 1D hydrodynamic code SHIVA. The contribution from the capture on the first excited state at 105.64 keV in 28 P is taken into account for the first time. We find that the capture rate on the first excited state in 28 P is up to more than 12 times larger than the ground-state capture rate in the temperature region of 2.5 × 10 7 K to 4 × 10 8 K, resulting in the total 28 P(p, γ) 29 S reaction rate being enhanced by a factor of up to 1.4 at ~1 × 10 9 K. In addition, the rate uncertainty has been quantified for the first time. It is found that the new rate is smaller than the previous statistical model rates, but it still agrees with them within uncertainties for nova temperatures. The statistical model appears to be roughly valid for the rate estimation of this reaction in the nova nucleosynthesis scenario. Using the 1D hydrodynamic code SHIVA, we performed the nucleosynthesis calculations in a nova explosion to investigate the impact of the new rates of 28 P(p, γ) 29 S. Our calculations show that the nova abundance pattern is only marginally affected if we use our new rates with respect to the same simulations but statistical model rates. Finally, the isotopes whose abundance is most influenced by the present 28 P(p, γ) 29 S uncertainty are 28 Si, 33,34 S, 35,37 Cl, and 36 Ar, with relative abundance changes at the level of only 3% to 4%.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Impact of Thermonuclear Reaction Rate Uncertainties on the Identification of Presolar Grains from Classical Novae

Approximately 30%–40% of classical novae generate dust between 20 and 100 days following the eruption. However, there has yet to be a definitive identification of presolar stardust grains originating from classical novae. While multiple studies have suggested a nova origin for specific grains, aligning simultaneously all measured isotopic ratios of a specific grain with those predicted from simulations remains challenging. Using Monte Carlo simulations, this work investigates how uncertainties in thermonuclear reaction rates influence the isotopic ratios predicted in simulations of classical novae, specifically impacting the identification of presolar grains. In particular, we address two questions: (i) What is the impact of uncertainties in reaction rates on the range of isotopic ratios predicted by classical nova simulations? (ii) Which reaction rate uncertainties most significantly influence the predicted abundance ratios in presolar grains? Our results show that current reaction rate uncertainties affect the isotopic ratios of 12 C/ 13 C, 14 N/ 15 N, 16 O/ 17 O, 16 O/ 18 O, 24 Mg/ 25 Mg, 24 Mg/ 26 Mg, 26 Al/ 27 Al, and 28 Si/ 29 Si by less than 20% in either carbon–oxygen or oxygen–neon (ONe) novae, especially when considering the mixing of matter throughout the entire envelope. However, the isotopic ratios of 28 Si/ 30 Si, 32 S/ 33 S, and 32 S/ 34 S in ONe novae are exceptions: their variability greatly exceeds a factor of 2 due to the uncertainties in the reaction rates of 30 P(p,γ) 31 S, 33 S(p,γ) 34 Cl, and 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl, respectively. These results highlight the significant influence of specific reaction rates on the predicted abundance ratios and underscore the necessity for accurate nuclear measurements to reduce these uncertainties.

Classical novae↗

Uncertainties in the production of iron-group nuclides in core-collapse supernovae from Monte Carlo variations of reaction rates

Core-collapse supernovae, occurring at the end of massive star evolution, produce heavy elements, including those in the iron peak. Although the explosion mechanism is not yet fully understood, theoretical models can reproduce optical observations and observed elemental abundances. However, many nuclear reaction rates involved in explosive nucleosynthesis have large uncertainties, impacting the reliability of abundance predictions. To address this, we have previously developed a Monte Carlo-based nucleosynthesis code that accounts for reaction rate uncertainties and has been applied to nucleosynthesis processes beyond iron. Our framework is also well suited for studying explosive nucleosynthesis in supernovae. In this paper, we investigate 1D explosion models using the ‘PUSH method’ , focusing on progenitors with varying metallicities and initial masses around $M_{\rm ZAMS} = 16\, {\rm M}_{\odot }$. Detailed post-process nucleosynthesis calculations and Monte Carlo analyses are used to explore the effects of reaction rate uncertainties and to identify key reaction rates in explosive nucleosynthesis. We find that many reactions have little impact on the production of iron-group nuclei, as these elements are primarily synthesized in the nuclear statistical equilibrium. However, we identify a few ‘key reactions’ that significantly influence the production of radioactive nuclei, which may affect astrophysical observables. In particular, for the production of ${}^{44}{\rm Ti}$, we confirm that several traditionally studied nuclear reactions have a strong impact. However, determining a single reaction rate is insufficient to draw a definitive conclusion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Univariate Prediction of Hammett Parameters and Select Relative Reaction Rates Using Loewdin Atomic Charges

Loewdin charges from density functional theory calculations were used here to obtain general, univariate linear correlations for the prediction of experimental Hammett parameters and relative reaction rates. While previous studies have established that Hirshfeld and CM5 charges perform strongly as univariate predictors, the near-ubiquitous Loewdin charges have not yet been evaluated. To this end, we assess the predictive capability of Loewdin charges for three chemical systems. First, we show that Loewdin charges outperform Hirshfeld and CM5 charges for Hammett parameter prediction. Second, we see that Loewdin charges generally perform comparably to Hirshfeld charges for predicting the relative rates of olefin cleavage by photoexcited nitroarenes. The single case of poor correlation, between relative rates and the Loewdin charges on nitrogen sites, is ameliorated when considering the net charge on the NO 2 group. Third, we show that Loewdin, Hirshfeld, and CM5 charges all perform very well for generating correlations for relative reaction rates for C–H activation of 9-(4-X-phenyl)-9H-fluorene substrates by a transition metal catalyst. The equations generated throughout the study enable the prediction of Hammett parameters and relative reaction rates. Finally, these tools can accelerate synthetic and experimental studies by enabling the in silico prediction of uncharacterized chemical properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Measured Reaction Rate Ratios of 235 U, 238 U, 237 Np, 239 Pu Samples in the PFUNS 235 U Prompt Fission Neutron Spectrum Criticality Experiment

The Prompt Fission Uranium Neutron Spectrum experiment, an experiment to reduce uncertainties in the high energy tail of the 235 U prompt fission spectrum, achieved success by performing two separate irradiations measuring approximately 40 different IRDFF-II reactions total using over 20 different foil materials at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center in February 2024. The criticality experiment utilized a set of highly enriched uranium hemispherical shells of increasing diameters with a large void in the center where the samples were located. The focus of this work is the first of two PFUNS irradiations focused on irradiating two of each fission foils, one bare and one cadmium covered, along with metal activation foils containing reaction products with short half-lives, such as indium, iron, and gold along with nickel fluence monitors. This work focuses on presenting the initial reaction rate ratio results of the fission foils from the aforementioned first irradiation to assist in nuclear data validation of those species in a nearly pure 235 U prompt fission neutron spectrum and compares to the Lady Godiva and Flattop-25 historic experiments at the Los Alamos Critical Experiments Facility. Future work will combine fission foil and metallic activation foil reaction rate ratio results from both the first and second higher power irradiation and reaction rates for a final spectral adjustment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The 14O(alpha,p)17F Reaction Rate and Type I X-ray Bursts

Oral presentation detailing recent results of measurements aimed to better determine the 14O(alpha,p)17F reaction rate of interest to Type I X-ray bursts. An aggregate R-matrix analysis of new and existing data along with a new recommended reaction rate is presented.

Blackmon, J C [Louisiana State University]↗

Tables of Neutron Thermal Cross Sections, Westcott Factors, Resonance Integrals, Maxwellian Averaged Cross Sections, Astrophysical Reaction Rates, and r-process Abundances Calculated from the ENDF/B-VIII.1, JEFF-3.3, JENDL-5.0, BROND-3.1, and CENDL-3.2 Evaluated Data Libraries

We present calculations of neutron thermal cross sections, Westcott factors, resonance integrals, Maxwellian-averaged cross sections, astrophysical reaction rates, and solar system r-process abundances using the latest data from the major evaluated nuclear libraries for 849 ENDF target materials. The recent release of ENDF/B-VIII.1 library, progress in 252 Cf(SF) evaluation, extensive analysis of newly-evaluated neutron reaction cross sections, neutron covariances, and improvements in data processing techniques motivated us to calculate the nuclear industry and neutron physics parameters, produce s-process Maxwellian-averaged cross sections and astrophysical reaction rates, extract r-process abundances, systematically calculate uncertainties, and provide additional insights on currently available neutron-induced reaction data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Indirect Measurement of the 23 Na(p, γ) 24 Mg Direct Capture Reaction Rate via ( 3 He,d) Spectroscopy

The cross section of the $^{23}\text{Na}(p,γ)^{24}\text{Mg}$ reaction is dominated by direct capture at low energies relevant for stellar burning. Such cross sections can be constrained using spectroscopic factors($C^2S$) or asymptotic normalization coefficients(ANCs) from transfer reactions. In this work, the $^{23}\text{Na}(^3\text{He},d)^{24}\text{Mg}$ reaction was measured at $E_{lab}=21$ MeV to extract spectroscopic factors for $^{24}\text{Mg}$ states with excitation energies in $E_x=7 - 12$ MeV using the Enge split-pole spectrograph at the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory. A new non-resonant astrophysical S factor and the direct capture reaction rate for the $^{23}\text{Na}(p,γ)$ reaction are calculated and presented based on this measurement. The new rate at $T<0.04$ GK is 43$\%$ smaller than in previous studies. Rigorous treatments of uncertainties are presented using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Finally, sources of uncertainties for computing the direct capture cross section are also discussed in detail.

electromagnetic moments↗

The impact of non-local parallel electron transport on plasma-impurity reaction rates in tokamak scrape-off layer plasmas

Abstract Plasma-impurity reaction rates are a crucial part of modelling tokamak scrape-off layer (SOL) plasmas. To avoid calculating the full set of rates for the large number of important processes involved, a set of effective rates are typically derived which assume Maxwellian electrons. However, non-local parallel electron transport may result in non-Maxwellian electrons, particularly close to divertor targets. Here, the validity of using Maxwellian-averaged rates in this context is investigated by computing the full set of rate equations for a fixed plasma background from kinetic and fluid SOL simulations. We consider the effect of the electron distribution as well as the impact of the electron transport model on plasma profiles. Results are presented for lithium, beryllium, carbon, nitrogen, neon and argon. It is found that electron distributions with enhanced high-energy tails can result in significant modifications to the ionisation balance and radiative power loss rates from excitation, on the order of 50%–75% for the latter. Fluid electron models with Spitzer-Härm or flux-limited Spitzer-Härm thermal conductivity, combined with Maxwellian electrons for rate calculations, can increase or decrease this error, depending on the impurity species and plasma conditions. Based on these results, we also discuss some approaches to experimentally observing non-local electron transport in SOL plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Reaction Rates of Amidogen and Ammonia with Nitrous Oxide: Implications for Combustion Mechanisms

Pulsed laser photolysis experiments with laser-induced fluorescence detection of NH 2 set an upper limit to the rate constant for reaction with N 2 O of k < 1 × 10 −15 cm 3 molecule −1 s −1 at 513 K. Computations were based on geometries and anharmonic frequency analysis (B2PLYP-D3/cc-pVTZ) followed by coupled cluster calculations extrapolated to the infinite basis set limit, with corrections for core−valence electron correlation, scalar relativistic effects, and correlation up to CCSDT(Q). Species that showed multireference character were quantified with MRCI(7,7)+Q/cc-pVTZ theory. Rate constants were obtained for the dominant product channel H 2 NN + NO, along with HN 3 + OH, H 2 NO + N 2 , NNH + HNO, ON(NH) 2 and HNNH + NO. The last channel is slow even at 2500 K, contrary to an early empirical estimate and confirming recent suggestions. Modeling of literature experiments on oxidation of NH 3 by N 2 O shows that all channels are too slow to make a significant impact on the loss of N 2 O in ammonia flames. Similarly, the direct NH 3 + N 2 O reaction is found to be negligibly slow.

Ammonia↗

Concurrent measurement of strain and chemical reaction rates in a calcite grain pack undergoing pressure solution: Evidence for surface-reaction controlled dissolution

Pressure solution is inferred to be a significant contributor to sediment compaction and lithification, especially in carbonate sediments. For a sediment deforming primarily by pressure solution, the compaction rate should be directly related to the rate of calcite dissolution, transport along grain contacts, and calcite reprecipitation. Previous experimental work has shown that there is evidence that deformation in wet calcite grain packs is consistent with control by pressure solution, but considerable ambiguity remains regarding the rate limiting mechanism. We present the results of laboratory compaction experiments designed to directly measure calcite dissolution and precipitation rates (recrystallization rates) concurrently with strain rate to test whether measured rates are consistent with predicted rates both in absolute magnitude and time evolution. Recrystallization rates are measured using trace element chemistry (Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca) and isotopes (87Sr/86Sr) of fluids flowing slowly through a compacting grain pack as it is being triaxially compressed. Imaging techniques are used to characterize the grain contacts and strain effects in the post-experiment grain pack. Our data show that calcite recrystallization rates calculated from all three geochemical parameters are in approximate agreement and that the rates closely track strain rate. The geochemically inferred rates are close to predicted rates in absolute magnitude. Uncertainty in grain contact dimensions makes distinguishing between surface reaction control and diffusion control difficult. Measured reaction rates decrease faster than predicted from standard pressure solution creep flow laws. This inconsistency may indicate that calcite dissolution rates at grain contacts are more complex, and more time-dependent, than suggested by geometric models designed to predict grain contact stresses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantifying SEI Reaction Rate in the Presence and Absence of Mn 2+

In this work, a methodology utilizing potentiostatic holds is developed for measuring side-reaction rates at graphite (Gr) electrodes. The influence of Mn 2+ on parasitic reactions is evaluated in the presence of various preformed solid-electrolyte interphases (SEI). Gr SEI preformation was carried out using vinylene carbonate (VC) or lithium difluoro(oxalato)borate (LiDFOB) as an additive. In addition, a highly fluorinated electrolyte, free of traditional non-fluorinated organic carbonates, was used. Parasitic current increases were observed for all preformed Gr SEIs when Mn 2+ was present. Of the preforming electrolytes, the VC-derived SEI showed the lowest parasitic currents both with and without Mn 2+ .

Tornheim, Adam [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL),↗

Impact of the Latest 22 Ne+ α Reaction Rates on Nucleosynthesis in Massive Stars and Galactic Chemical Evolution

In massive stars (initial mass of ≳9 M ⊙ ), the weak s- (slow neutron capture) process produces elements between Fe and Zr, enriching the Galaxy with these elements through core-collapse supernova explosions. The weak s-process nucleosynthesis is driven by neutrons produced in the 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg reaction during convective He core and C shell burning. The yields of heavy elements thus depend on the 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg and the competitive 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg reaction rates, which are dominated by several narrow-resonance reactions. While the accuracy of these rates has been under debate for decades, recent experimental efforts, including ours, drastically reduced these uncertainties. In this work, we use a set of 280 massive star nucleosynthesis models calculated using different 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg and 22 Ne(α, γ) 26 Mg rates and a galactic chemical evolution (GCE) study to probe their impact on the weak s-process elemental abundances in the Galaxy. The GCE was computed with the OMEGA+ code, using the new sets of stellar yields with different 22 Ne+α rates. From GCE, we find that these rates are causing up to 0.45 dex of variations in the [Cu/Fe], [Ga/Fe], and [Ge/Fe] ratios predicted at solar metallicity. The greatest impact on the stellar nucleosynthesis and GCE results derives from uncertainties in the (α, n) strength (ωγ (α,n) ) of the E x = 11.32 MeV resonance. We show that variations observed in the GCE calculations for weak s-process elements become negligibly smaller than dispersions found in observations once the ωγ (α,n) is accurately determined within the uncertainty of 10%–20% (typically reported experimental errors for the resonance) in future nuclear physics experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗