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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling household-level party composition behavior for multiparty activities: a random parameter nested logit modeling approach

This study presents findings of a household-level party composition model for multiparty activities. It exploits data from a comprehensive Household Travel Survey conducted by Chicago Metropolitan Agency of Planning. The study estimates a random parameter nested logit model to capture households’ unobserved preference heterogeneity and non-proportional substitution patterns in terms of activity party composition for multiparty activities. A wide variety of household demographics, activity attributes and residential neighborhood characteristics are examined in this paper. The magnitude of the impacts of the determinants are tested in this study by analyzing the elasticity of the variables, which suggests that household demographics and attributes of the multiparty activities have significant effects on the household-level activity party composition. Residential neighborhood characteristics, although somewhat less impactful, still play a meaningful role. This model will be implemented within the POLARIS transportation systems simulator to improve the activity generation modeling workflow, and the prediction accuracy of various activity-travel components.

activity party composition↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing Optical Searches for Supermassive Black Hole Binaries in Active Galactic Nuclei Light Curves: Fourier versus Bayesian Periodicity Detection

Simulations predict that supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) will exhibit periodic brightness variations that may exceed the stochastic variability intrinsic to active galactic nuclei (AGN). In this paper, we simulate SMBHBs with damped random walk (DRW) AGN variability and an added sinusoidal signal from the orbital motion, and test three methods—a generalized Lomb–Scargle periodogram (GLSP), a nested Bayesian sampler (NBS), and a weighted wavelet z-transform (or WWZ)—to determine which is best at recovering the periodicity. Our simulated light curves follow the properties of the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (or CRTS), Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) to best inform current and future SMBHB searches. We map a broad range of parameter space and identify which DRW-only light curves best mimic periodicity and pass each method’s model selection. The NBS performs best at detecting periodicity and filtering out DRW-only light curves. Combined candidate selection with both the NBS and GLSP significantly reduces false-positive rates (FPRs) with marginal impact on true-positive rates (TPRs). With this joint model selection pipeline, we find the lowest FPRs in ZTF-like simulations and the highest detection rates in LSST-like simulations. Using a modified computation of the false-alarm probability with GLSP, we efficiently triage LSST AGN light curves (∼10 7 light curves in ∼10–30 hr) and achieve TPRs and FPRs of ∼40% and ∼0.5%, respectively.

Banaszak, Sebastian M. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashvill↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unit-density SU(3) Fermi-Hubbard model with spin-flavor imbalance

The advent of ultracold alkaline-earth atoms in optical lattices has established a platform for investigating correlated quantum matter with SU⁡(𝑁) symmetry, offering highly tunable model parameters that allow experiments to access phenomena that are unavailable in conventional materials. Understanding the ground-state physics of SU⁡(𝑁) Fermi-Hubbard models away from the Heisenberg limit and from the spin-flavor balanced setting is important, as examining the flavor imbalance reveals new physics in Fermi-Hubbard models and shows how SU⁡(𝑁) phases react to practical experimental imperfections in optical lattices. Here, in this study, mean-field phase diagrams are presented for the unit-density SU(3) Fermi-Hubbard model at two sets of flavor densities, ($\frac{1}{3}$ − 𝛿, $\frac{1}{3}$ + 𝛿, $\frac{1}{3}$) and ($\frac{1}{4}$ − 𝛿, $\frac{1}{4}$ +𝛿, $\frac{1}{2}$), with the flavor imbalance introduced as 𝛿. Novel phases are identified at moderate interaction strengths for both densities, and their robustness is investigated in the presence of flavor imbalance. Furthermore, we provide microscopic explanations of the phases found and their stability. Analysis of thermal ensembles of random mean-field solutions indicate that, at temperatures accessible in state-of-the-art cold atom experiments, some spin orders are hard for conventional scattering or local observable measurements to detect, but can be more accessible with quantum gas microscopy in optical lattice experiments. This work also shows that nesting and Mottness, intertwined in the usual SU(2) Hubbard model in stark contrast to generic materials, can be tuned in the SU(3) model and play distinct roles. The resulting phase diagrams not only deepen our understanding of SU⁡(𝑁) Fermi-Hubbard models but also inform future experimental search for new phases.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗