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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variational Coupled Loads Analysis using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Time-domain coupled loads analysis (CLA)is used to determine the response of a launch vehicle and payload system to transient forces, such as liftoff, engine ignitions and shutdowns, jettison events, and atmospheric flight loads, such as buffet. CLA, using Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB)component models, is the accepted method for the establishment of design-level loads for launch systems. However, uncertainty in the component models flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty in the structural responses during launch is a significant concern because small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interactions can result in significant variations in system loads. Uncertainty quantification (UQ)is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. In this paper uncertainty is treated at the HCB component-model level. In an effort to account for model uncertainties and statistically bound their effect on CLA predictions, this work combines CLA with UQ in a process termed variational coupled loads analysis (VCLA). The modeling of uncertainty using a parametric approach, in which input parameters are represented by random variables, is common, but its major drawback is the resulting uncertainty is limited to the form of the nominal model. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. Model-form uncertainty can be represented using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory (RMT). In this work, UQ is performed using the hybrid parametric variation (HPV)method, which combines parametric with nonparametric uncertainty at the HCB component model level. The HPV method requires the selection of dispersion values for the HCB fixed-interface (FI)eigenvalues, and the HCB mass and stiffness matrices. The dispersions are based upon component test-analysis modal correlation results. During VCLA, random component models are assembled into an ensemble of random systems using a Monte Carlo (MC)approach. CLA is applied to each of the ensemble members to produce an ensemble of system-level responses for statistical analysis. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through its application to a buffet loads analysis of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS)during the transonic regime fifty seconds after liftoff. Core stage (CS)section shears and moments are recovered, and statistics are computed.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity

The Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Orion vehicle finite element model (FEM) was updated based on a modal test performed by Lockheed Martin. Due to nonlinearity observed in the test results, linear low force level (LL) and high force level (HL) FEMs were developed for use during various Space Launch System (SLS) flight regimes depending on expected forcing levels. Uncertainty models were derived for the combined MPCV and MPCV Stage Adaptor LL and HL Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components based on the MPCV structural test article Configuration 4 modal test-analysis correlation results. Subsequently, system-level uncertainty quantification analyses were performed using both models for various SLS flight configurations to determine the impact of the nonlinearity on important system metrics. The system metrics included both transfer functions associated with attitude control and dynamic loads associated with aerodynamic buffeting during ascent. In each case, an independent Monte Carlo (MC) analysis was performed, and no attempt was made to combine the results. The Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method was used to develop the LL and HL MPCV HCB uncertainty models. The HPV method provides both parametric and non-parametric components of uncertainty. The non-parametric uncertainty accounts for the difference in model-form between the linearized analytical model and the corresponding linearized component test results in the form of mode shapes and frequencies at that force level. This linear model-form uncertainty is implemented in the HPV method using random matrix theory. However, the HPV uncertainty models developed for the linear LL and HL MPCV components do not account for the nonlinearity in the MPCV. With respect to the linearized models, this nonlinearity is also an uncertainty in model form, but in this case, it must be treated independently as an epistemic uncertainty. It represents a lack of knowledge, in contrast to an aleatory uncertainty due to the randomness of a variable. In the case of an epistemic variable, the true value is unknown, only the interval within which it lies is known. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with increased knowledge, while in general, aleatory uncertainty cannot. This work combines the epistemic uncertainty due to the MPCV nonlinearity with the parametric and non-parametric uncertainty within the HPV method using a second order propagation approach. The LL and HL test data is augmented with surrogate test data derived from a nonlinear MPCV representation. The impact of the MPCV nonlinearity on system response statistics is determined using a series of cumulative distribution functions in the form of a horsetail plot, or p-box. This results in an interval of probabilities for a specific response value, or an interval of response values at a specific probability.

Daniel C Kammer↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SLS Integrated Modal Test Uncertainty Quantification using the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method

Uncertainty in structural loading during launch is a significant concern in the development of spacecraft and launch vehicles. Small variations in launch vehicle and payload mode shapes and their interaction can result in significant variation in system loads. In many cases involving large aerospace systems it is difficult, not economical, or impossible to perform a system modal test. However, it is still vital to obtain test results that can be compared with analytical predictions to validate models. Instead, the “Building Block Approach” is used in which system components are tested individually. Component models are correlated and updated to agree as best they can with test results. The Space Launch System consists of a number of components that are assembled into a launch vehicle. Finite element models of the components are developed, reduced to Hurty/Craig-Bampton models and assembled to represent different phases of flight. The only opportunity to obtain modal test data from an assembled Space Launch System will be during the Integrated Modal Test. There is always uncertainty in every model, which flows into uncertainty in predicted system results. Uncertainty Quantification is used to determine statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. For the Space Launch System, model uncertainty is at the Hurty/Craig-Bampton component level. Uncertainty in the Hurty/Craig-Bampton components is quantified using the hybrid parametric variation approach that combines parametric and nonparametric uncertainty. Uncertainty in model form is one of the biggest contributors to uncertainty in complex built-up structures. This type of uncertainty cannot be represented by variations infinite element model input parameters and thus cannot be included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using a nonparametric approach based on random matrix theory. The hybrid parametric variation method requires the selection of dispersion values for the Hurty/Craig-Bampton fixed-interface eigenvalues, and the Hurty/Craig-Bampton stiffness matrices. Component test/analysis frequency error is used to identify the fixed-interface eigenvalue dispersions, while test/analysis cross-orthogonality is used to identify stiffness dispersion values. The hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach is applied to the Space Launch System Integrated Modal Test configuration. Monte Carlo analysis is performed, and statistics are determined for modal correlation metrics, frequency response from Integrated Modal Test shakers to selected accelerometers, as well as other metrics for determining how well target modes are excited and identified. If the predicted uncertainty envelopes future Integrated Modal Test results, then there will be increased confidence in the utility of the component-based hybrid parametric variation uncertainty quantification approach.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

NASA NTRS2004

Random Matrix Approach to Quantum Adiabatic Evolution Algorithms

We analyze the power of quantum adiabatic evolution algorithms (Q-QA) for solving random NP-hard optimization problems within a theoretical framework based on the random matrix theory (RMT). We present two types of the driven RMT models. In the first model, the driving Hamiltonian is represented by Brownian motion in the matrix space. We use the Brownian motion model to obtain a description of multiple avoided crossing phenomena. We show that the failure mechanism of the QAA is due to the interaction of the ground state with the "cloud" formed by all the excited states, confirming that in the driven RMT models. the Landau-Zener mechanism of dissipation is not important. We show that the QAEA has a finite probability of success in a certain range of parameters. implying the polynomial complexity of the algorithm. The second model corresponds to the standard QAEA with the problem Hamiltonian taken from the Gaussian Unitary RMT ensemble (GUE). We show that the level dynamics in this model can be mapped onto the dynamics in the Brownian motion model. However, the driven RMT model always leads to the exponential complexity of the algorithm due to the presence of the long-range intertemporal correlations of the eigenvalues. Our results indicate that the weakness of effective transitions is the leading effect that can make the Markovian type QAEA successful.

Boulatov, Alexei↗

NASA NTRS2022

Uncertainty Models for the Hybrid Parametric Variation Method of Uncertainty Quantification; Analysis

There is some level of uncertainty in every finite element model (FEM), which flows to a level of uncertainty in predicted results. The purpose of uncertainty quantification (UQ) is to provide statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on model uncertainty. This is distinct from model updating, which attempts to modify models to improve their accuracy. UQ does not improve the accuracy of models, but accepts that the models are inherently inaccurate and attempts to quantify the impact of that inaccuracy on predicted results. Previously, an alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method, was applied to Space Launch System (SLS) Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components to predict system-level statistics for launch vehicle attitude control transfer functions and core stage section loads due to buffet. The HPV method combines a parametric variation of the HCB fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method that randomly varies the HCB mass and stiffness matrices as Wishart random matrix distributions using random matrix theory (RMT). Alternatively, the most common method for modeling uncertainty in the structural dynamics community is a parametric approach, which varies physical parameters in the model. However, there are several disadvantages associated with the parametric method. Determining a reduced set of parameters that have a significant impact on the system response can be time consuming, and the selected parameter probability distributions are rarely reliably known. Therefore, in practice, the parameters are surrogates for the actual errors, and the link to parameter uncertainty is unknown. Another major drawback is that the uncertainty that can be represented is limited to the form of the nominal FEM. It is the experience of the authors that based on numerous aerospace programs, almost all FEM errors are in form rather than parameter values. This hypothesis is supported by the observation of the authors that it is almost never possible to ‘tune’ a FEM to match modal test results by only modifying model parameters. Model-form uncertainty cannot be directly represented by FEM input parameters nor included in a parametric approach. However, model-form uncertainty can be modeled using RMT, where a probability distribution is developed for the matrix ensemble of interest. The major advantage of the NPV method is that it covers errors in model form. The HPV method anchors uncertainty at the HCB component level to component modal test results by matching the HCB and test modes based on mode descriptions or other methods, and then applying differing levels of frequency variation. The specific variations depend on the confidence to which a component FEM has been validated through modal testing. The NPV method is layered on the frequency variation to match modal test self-orthogonality and cross-orthogonality (XO) results. Once the component uncertainty models are identified, they are assembled, and the uncertainty is propagated to the system level using a Monte Carlo (MC) analysis approach that generates statistics for system-level predictions This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The purpose of this paper is to collect and present all of the theory for HPV that has been previously published in reports and papers and to present examples of its application. Specifically, component uncertainty models based on the dispersion of corresponding mass and stiffness matrices using proposed test/analysis correlation metrics are investigated. The first example is purely academic so that the true answers are known, and the validity of the HPV method and the corresponding uncertainty models can be determined. The second example is an application to a component that is design specific to the SLS. Based on this work and other assessments, the HPV method provides another tool to the toolset used for complex system UQ analysis. From experience gathered to date using the HPV method, additional design specific applications must be investigated to provide further confidence in the validity of the HPV method of UQ analysis.

Uncertainty quantification↗

NASA NTRS1992

Random-anisotropy Blume-Emery-Griffiths model

The results are described of studies of a random-anisotropy Blume-Emery-Griffiths spin-1 Ising model using mean-field theory, transfer-matrix calculations, and position-space renormalization-group calculations. The interplay between the quenched randomness of the anisotropy and the annealed disorder introduced by the spin-1 model leads to a rich phase diagram with a variety of phase transitions and reentrant behavior. The results may be relevant to the study of the phase separation of He-3 - He-4 mixtures in porous media in the vicinity of the superfluid transition.

Maritan, Amos↗

NASA NTRS2001

Free Vibration of Uncertain Unsymmetrically Laminated Beams

Monte Carlo Simulation and Stochastic FEA are used to predict randomness in the free vibration response of thin unsymmetrically laminated beams. For the present study, it is assumed that randomness in the response is only caused by uncertainties in the ply orientations. The ply orientations may become random or uncertain during the manufacturing process. A new 16-dof beam element, based on the first-order shear deformation beam theory, is used to study the stochastic nature of the natural frequencies. Using variational principles, the element stiffness matrix and mass matrix are obtained through analytical integration. Using a random sequence a large data set is generated, containing possible random ply-orientations. This data is assumed to be symmetric. The stochastic-based finite element model for free vibrations predicts the relation between the randomness in fundamental natural frequencies and the randomness in ply-orientation. The sensitivity derivatives are calculated numerically through an exact formulation. The squared fundamental natural frequencies are expressed in terms of deterministic and probabilistic quantities, allowing to determine how sensitive they are to variations in ply angles. The predicted mean-valued fundamental natural frequency squared and the variance of the present model are in good agreement with Monte Carlo Simulation. Results, also, show that variations between plus or minus 5 degrees in ply-angles can affect free vibration response of unsymmetrically and symmetrically laminated beams.

Kapania, Rakesh K.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Statistical analysis of effective singular values in matrix rank determination

A major problem in using SVD (singular-value decomposition) as a tool in determining the effective rank of a perturbed matrix is that of distinguishing between significantly small and significantly large singular values to the end, conference regions are derived for the perturbed singular values of matrices with noisy observation data. The analysis is based on the theories of perturbations of singular values and statistical significance test. Threshold bounds for perturbation due to finite-precision and i.i.d. random models are evaluated. In random models, the threshold bounds depend on the dimension of the matrix, the noisy variance, and predefined statistical level of significance. Results applied to the problem of determining the effective order of a linear autoregressive system from the approximate rank of a sample autocorrelation matrix are considered. Various numerical examples illustrating the usefulness of these bounds and comparisons to other previously known approaches are given.

Konstantinides, Konstantinos↗

NASA NTRS1986

Remote sensing of Earth Terrain

The Mueller matrix and polarization covariance matrix for polarimetric radar systems were studied. The clutter is modelled by a layer of random permittivity, described by a three dimensional correlation function, with variance, and horizontal and vertical correlation lengths. This model is applied, using the wave theory with Born approximations carried to the second order, to find the backscattering elements of the polarimetric matrices. It is found that 8 out of 16 elements of the Mueller matrix are identically zero, corresponding to a covariance matrix with four zero elements. Theoretical predictions are matched with experimental data for vegetation fields. A general mixing formula is derived for discrete scatterers immersed in a host medium. The inclusion particles are assumed to be ellipsoidal. The electric field inside the scatterers is determined by quasistatic analysis, assuming the diameter of the inclusion particles to be much smaller than the wavelength. The results are applicable to general multiphase mixtures.

Kong, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Theoretical models for polarimetric radar clutter

The Mueller matrix and polarization covariance matrix are described for polarimetric radar systems. The clutter is modeled by a layer of random permittivity, described by a three-dimensional correlation function, with variance, and horizontal and vertical correlation lengths. This model is applied, using the wave theory with Born approximations carried to the second order, to find the backscattering elements of the polarimetric matrices. It is found that 8 out of 16 elements of the Mueller matrix are identically zero, corresponding to a covariance matrix with four zero elements. Theoretical predictions are matched with experimental data for vegetation fields.

Borgeaud, M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Comparison of the Compressive Strengths for Stitched and Toughened Composite Systems

The compression strength of a stitched and a toughened matrix graphite/epoxy composite was determined and compared to a baseline unstitched untoughened composite. Two different layups with a variety of test lengths were tested under both ambient and hot/wet conditions. No significant difference in strength was seen for the different materials when the gage lengths of the specimens were long enough to lead to a buckling failure. For shorter specimens, a 30% reduction in strength from the baseline was seen due to stitching for both a 48-ply quasi-isotropic and a (0/45/0/-45/90/-45/0/45/0)s laminate. Analysis of the results suggested that the decrease in strength was due to increased fiber misalignment due to the stitches. An observed increasing strength with decreasing gage length, which was seen for all materials, was explained with a size effect model. The model assumed a random distribution of flaws (misaligned fibers). The toughened material showed a small increase in strength over the baseline material for both laminates presumably due to the compensating effects of a more compliant matrix and straighter fibers in the toughened material. The hot/wet strength of the stitched and baseline material fell 30% below their ambient strengths for shorter, non-buckling specimen, while the strength of the toughened matrix material only fell 20%. Video images of the failing specimen were recorded and showed local failures prior to global collapse of the specimen. These images support the theory of a random distribution of flaws controlling composite failure. Failed specimen appearance however, seems to be a misleading indication of the cause of failure.

Reeder, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of the compressive strengths for stitched and toughened composite systems

The compression strength of a stitched and a toughened matrix graphite/epoxy composite was determined and compared to a baseline unstitched untoughened composite. Two different layups with a variety of test lengths were tested under both ambient and hot/wet conditions. No significant difference in strength was seen for the different materials when the gage lengths of the specimens were long enough to lead to a buckling failure. For shorter specimens, a 30 percent reduction in strength from the baseline was seen due to stitching for both a 48-ply quasi-isotropic and a (0/45/0/-45/90/-45/0/45/0)s laminate. Analysis of the results suggested that the decrease in strength was due to increased fiber misalignment due to the stitches. An observed increasing strength with decreasing gage length, which was seen for all materials, was explained with a size effect model. The model assumed a random distribution of flaws (misaligned fibers). The toughened materials showed a small increase in strength over the baseline material for both laminates presumably due to the compensating effects of a more compliant matrix and straighter fibers in the toughened material. The hot/wet strength of the stitched and baseline material fell 30 percent below their ambient strengths for shorter, nonbuckling specimen, while the strength of the toughened matrix material only fell 20 percent. Video images of the failing specimen were recorded and showed local failures prior to global collapse of the specimen. These images support the theory of a random distribution of flaws controlling composite failure. Failed specimen appearance, however, seems to be a misleading indication of the cause of failure.

Reeder, James R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Remote sensing of Earth terrain

The layered random medium model is used to investigate the fully polarimetric scattering of electromagnetic waves from vegetation. The vegetation canopy is modeled as an anisotropic random medium containing nonspherical scatterers with preferred alignment. The underlying medium is considered as a homogeneous half space. The scattering effect of the vegetation canopy are characterized by 3-D correlation functions with variances and correlation lengths respectively corresponding to the fluctuation strengths and the physical geometries of the scatterers. The strong fluctuation theory is used to calculate the anisotropic effective permittivity tensor of the random medium and the distorted Born approximation is then applied to obtain the covariance matrix which describes the fully polarimetric scattering properties of the vegetation field. This model accounts for all the interaction processes between the boundaries and the scatterers and includes all the coherent effects due to wave propagation in different directions such as the constructive and destructive interferences. For a vegetation canopy with low attenuation, the boundary between the vegetation and the underlying medium can give rise to significant coherent effects.

Kong, Jin AU↗

NASA NTRS1983

Ultrasonic wave propagation in two-phase media: Spherical inclusions

The scattering theory, recently developed via the extended method of equivalent inclusion, is used to study the propagation of time-harmonic waves in two-phase media of elastic matrix with randomly distributed elastic spherical inclusion materials. The elastic moduli and mass density of the composite medium are determined as functions of frequencies when given properties and concentration of the spheres and the matrix. Velocity and attenuation of ultrasonic waves in two-phase media are determined for cases of distributed spheres and localized damage. An averaging theorem that requires the equivalence of the strain energy and the kinetic energy between the effective medium and the original matrix with spherical inhomogeneities is employed to derive the effective moduli and mass density. The functional dependency of these quantities upon frequencies and concentration provides a method of data analysis in ultrasonic evaluation of material properties. Numerical results or moduli, velocity and/or attenuation as functions of concentration of inclusion material, or porosity, are graphically displayed.

Fu, L. S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Ultrasonic wave propagation in two-phase media - Spherical inclusions

Fu, L. S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Radiative transfer theory for active remote sensing of a layer of nonspherical particles

The radiative transfer theory is applied to calculate the scattering by a layer of randomly positioned and oriented nonspherical particles. The scattering amplitude functions of each individual particle are calculated with Waterman's T matrix method, which utilizes vector spherical wave functions for expansion of incident, scattered, and surface fields. The orientation of the particles is described by a probability density function of the Eulerian angles of rotation. A rotation matrix is used to relate the T matrix of the principal frame to that of the natural frame of the particle. The extinction matrix and phase matrix of the radiative transfer equations are expressed in terms of the T matrix elements. The extinction matrix for nonspherical particles is generally nondiagonal. There are only two attenuation rates in a specified direction of propagation. The radiative transfer equations are solved by an iterative method to first order in albedo. Numerical results are illustrated as functions of incidence angle and frequency with applications to active remote sensing.

Tsang, L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Multiple input/output random vibration control system

A multi-input/output random vibration control algorithm was developed based on system identification concepts derived from random vibration spectral analysis theory. The unique features of the algorithm are: (1) the number of input excitors and the number of output control responses need not be identical; (2) the system inverse response matrix is obtained directly from the input/output spectral matrix; and (3) the system inverse response matrix is updated every control loop cycle to accommodate system amplitude nonlinearities. A laboratory demonstration case of two imputs with three outputs is presented to demonstrate the system capabilities.

Unruh, James F.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Scattering from randomly oriented scatterers with strong permittivity fluctuations

Strong permittivity fluctuation theory is used to solve the problem of scattering from a medium composed of completely randomly oriented scatterers under a low frequency limit. Gaussian statistics are not assumed for the renormalized scattering sources. Numerical results on effective permittivity are illustrated for oblate and prolate spheroidal scatterers and compared with the results for spherical scatterers. The results are consistent with discrete scatterer theory. The effective permittivity of a random medium embedded with nonspherical scatterers shows a higher imaginary part than the spherical scatterer case with equal correlation volume. Under the distorted Born approximation, the polarimetric covariance matrix for the backscattered electric field is calculated for half-space randomly oriented scatterers. The nonspherical geometry of the scatterers shows significant effects on the cross-polarized backscattering returns, and the correlation coefficient between HH and VV returns. The polarimetric backscattering coefficients can provide useful information in distinguishing the geometry of scatterers.

Yueh, S. H.↗