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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Unbalanced Nested Random Effects Estimation of Variance Components

To investigate the contributing factors of variance in the measurement of an iodine 127 (127I) sample, we implement a nested random effects analysis of variance (ANOVA). Historically, the reported uncertainty on a measurement of 127I has been obtained by methods of forward uncertainty propagation because there is typically only one replicate of a given sample for which to estimate the uncertainty. When samples are processed there are several types of quality control (QC) standards analyzed along-side the unknown samples with two to five replicates for each. Assuming the variance observed in these replicate QC standards is representative of that of the unknown samples, we use these data in a nested random effects ANOVA to estimate the total uncertainty of a measurement. We demonstrate this approach with two sets of measurements from Idaho National Laboratory and compare the results with the forward uncertainty propagation approach. Variance component estimates for the coarsest level of the nesting structure were most imprecise because replicates were most limited at these levels. We find that the results largely agree between forward propagation and ANOVA, and the greatest contributors of variance are due to instrument variation and chemical processing, with human processing being among the smallest contributors. This analysis provides reassurance that the reported uncertainties using forward propagation are reasonable and the process is well controlled. We propose a future designed experiment to increase replicates at the coarsest level of the hierarchy to improve estimates of these variance components.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experimental demonstration and analysis of random field effects in ferromagnet/antiferromagnet bilayers

More than 30 years ago, Malozemoff [Phys. Rev. B 35, 3679 (1987)] hypothesized that exchange interaction at the interface between a ferromagnet (F) and an antiferromagnet (AF) can act as an effective random field, which can profoundly affect the magnetic properties of the system. However, until now this hypothesis has not been directly experimentally tested. We utilize magnetoelectronic measurements to analyze the effective exchange fields at permalloy/CoO interface. Our results cannot be explained in terms of quasiuniform effective exchange fields but are in agreement with the random-field hypothesis of Malozemoff. Finally, the presented approach opens a new route for the quantitative analysis of effective exchange fields and anisotropies in magnetic heterostructures for memory, sensing and computing applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data for Responsiveness of Miscanthus and Switchgrass Yields to Stand Age and Nitrogen Fertilization: A Meta-regression Analysis

The compiled datasets include plot level observations of energy crops (miscanthus and switchgrass) from recent experimental field trials in the US including dry biomass yield, location, state, region, harvest year, growing season degree days (GDD), winter season heating degree days (HDD), growing season cumulative precipitation, annual nitrogen application rate, age of the pant when harvested, National Commodity Crop Productivity Index (NCCPI) values, and cultivar type (switchgrass) from various published and unpublished sources. The stata codes include estimation procedures for four different specifications, i.e., Model A includes deterministic effect without interaction terms; Model B includes deterministic effect with interaction terms (N2, age2, N × age, GDD2, precip2, N × NCCPI); Model C includes deterministic effect with interaction terms, study, and location random effect; Model D includes deterministic effect with interaction terms, harvest year augmented study, and location random effect.

Age↗
DOE OSTI2021

Updates to the Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) Model: 2. Path-dependent Travel-time Uncertainty

Abstract The regional seismic travel time (RSTT) model and software were developed to improve travel-time prediction accuracy by accounting for three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure. Travel-time uncertainty estimates are used in the process of associating seismic phases to events and to accurately calculate location uncertainty bounds (i.e. event location error ellipses). We improve on the current distance-dependent uncertainty parameterization for RSTT using a random effects model to estimate slowness (inverse velocity) uncertainty as a mean squared error for each model parameter. The random effects model separates the error between observed slowness and model predicted slowness into bias and random components. The path-specific travel-time uncertainty is calculated by integrating these mean squared errors along a seismic-phase ray path. We demonstrate that event location error ellipses computed for a 90% coverage ellipse metric (used by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization International Data Centre (IDC)), and using the path-specific travel-time uncertainty approach, are more representative (median 82.5% ellipse percentage) of true location error than error ellipses computed using distance-dependent travel-time uncertainties (median 70.1%). We also demonstrate measurable improvement in location uncertainties using the RSTT method compared to the current station correction approach used at the IDC (median 74.3% coverage ellipse).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

RatXcan: A framework for cross-species integration of genome-wide association and gene expression data

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have implicated specific alleles and genes as risk factors for numerous complex traits. However, translating GWAS results into biologically and therapeutically meaningful discoveries remains extremely challenging. Most GWAS results identify noncoding regions of the genome, suggesting that differences in gene regulation are the major driver of trait variability. To better integrate GWAS results with gene regulatory polymorphisms, we previously developed PrediXcan (also known as “transcriptome-wide association studies” orTWAS), which maps SNPs to predicted gene expression using GWAS data. In this study, we developed RatXcan, a framework that extends this methodology to outbred heterogeneous stock (HS) rats. RatXcan accounts for the close familial relationships among HS rats by modeling the relatedness with a random effect that encodes the genetic relatedness. RatXcan also corrects for polygenic-driven inflation because of the equivalence between a relatedness random effect and the infinitesimal polygenic model. To develop RatXcan, we trained transcript predictors for 8,934 genes using reference genotype and expression data from five rat brain regions. We found that the cis genetic architecture of gene expression in both rats and humans was sparse and similar across brain tissues. We tested the association between predicted expression in rats and two example traits (body length and BMI) using phenotype and genotype data from 5,401 densely genotyped HS rats and identified a significant enrichment between the genes associated with rat and human body length and BMI. Thus, RatXcan represents a valuable tool for identifying the relationship between gene expression and phenotypes across species and paves the way to explore shared biological mechanisms of complex traits.

Genetics & Heredity↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of random antiferromagnetic exchange on the spin waves in a three-dimensional Heisenberg ferromagnet

Neutron scattering is used to study spin waves in the three-dimensional Heisenberg ferromagnet YTiO 3 , with spin-spin exchange disorder introduced via La substitution at the Y site. No significant changes are observed in the spin-wave dispersion up to a La concentration of 20%. However, a strong broadening of the spectrum is found, indicative of shortened spin-wave lifetimes. Density-functional theory calculations predict minimal changes in exchange constants as a result of average structural changes due to La substitution, in agreement with the data. The absence of significant changes in the spin-wave dispersion, the considerable lifetime effect, and the reduced ordered magnetic moment previously observed in the La-substituted system are qualitatively captured by an isotropic, nearest-neighbor, three-dimensional Furthermore, Heisenberg ferromagnet model with random antiferromagnetic exchange. We therefore establish Y 1-$x$ La $x$ TiO 3 as a model system for the study of antiferromagnetic spin-exchange disorder in a three-dimensional Heisenberg ferromagnet.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of random forest modeling decisions on biogeochemical time series predictions

Abstract Random forests (RF) are an increasingly popular machine learning approach used to model biogeochemical processes in the Earth system. While RF models are robust to many assumptions that complicate deterministic models, there are several important parameterization decisions for appropriate use and optimal model fit. We explored the role that parameter decisions, including training/testing data splitting strategies, variable selection, and hyperparameters play on RF goodness‐of‐fit by constructing models using 1296 unique parameter combinations to predict concentrations of nitrate, a key nutrient for biogeochemical cycling in aquatic ecosystems. Models were built on long‐term, publicly available water quality and meteorology time series collected by the National Estuarine Research Reserve monitoring network for two contrasting ecosystems representing freshwater and brackish estuaries. We found that accounting for temporal dependence when splitting data into training and testing subsets was key for avoiding over‐estimation of model predictive power. In addition, variable selection, the ratio of training to testing data, and to a lesser degree, variables per split and number of trees, were significant parameters for optimizing RF goodness‐of‐fit. We also explored how model parameter decisions influenced interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the model, and model predictor‐dependent variable relationships, with results suggesting that both data structure and model parameterization influence these factors. Because much of the current RF literature is written for the computational and statistical science communities, the primary goal of this study is to provide guidelines for aquatic scientists new to machine learning to apply RF techniques appropriately to aquatic biogeochemical datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Random Nanostructured Metallic Environments on Spontaneous Emission of HITC Dye

We have studied emission kinetics of HITC laser dye on top of glass, smooth Au films, and randomly structured porous Au nanofoams. The observed concentration quenching of luminescence of highly concentrated dye on top of glass (energy transfer to acceptors) and the inhibition of the concentration quenching in vicinity of smooth Au films were in accord with our recent findings. Intriguingly, the emission kinetics recorded in different local spots of the Au nanofoam samples had a spread of the decay rates, which was large at low dye concentrations and became narrower with increase of the dye concentration. We infer that in different subvolumes of Au nanofoams, HITC molecules are coupled to the nanofoams weaker or stronger. The inhibition of the concentration quenching in Au nanofoams was stronger than on top of smooth Au films. This was true for all weakly and strongly coupled subvolumes contributing to the spread of the emission kinetics. The experimental observations were explained using theoretical model accounting for change in the Förster radius caused by the strong energy transfer to metal.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic Modeling in a Multimaterial Continuum Mixture Shock Physics Code

Stochastic modelling approaches are presented to capture random effects at multiple time and length scales. Random processes that occur at the microscale produce nondeterministic effects at the macroscale. Here we present three stochastic modeling approaches that describe random processes at microscopic length scales and map these processes to the macroscopic length scale. The first stochastic modeling approach is based upon a particle based numerical technique to solve a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) using an arbitrary diffusion process to capture random processes at the microstructural level. The second approach prescribes a Probability Density Function (PDF) for the drift and diffusion of the random variable derived using the forward and backward Kolmogorov equations. This method requires mean and drift evolution PDF transport equations. The third approach is the coupling of multiple random variables which are dependent on each other. The relationship of the PDFs and a coupling function, known as a copula, produces a Joint Probability Density Function (JPDF). These stochastic modeling approaches are implemented into a Multiple Component (MC) shock physics computational code and used to model statistical fracture and reactive flow applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effect of Homogenization Heat Treatment on the Texture Evolution in U-10Mo Alloy

Uranium alloyed with 10 wt% Mo (U-10Mo) undergoes discontinuous precipitation (DP) when subjected to sub-eutectoid heat-treatment. It is hypothesized that the crystallographic texture of the U-10Mo can be modified to minimize the degree of DP, however the evolution of texture throughout the manufacturing process is not well understood. Crystallographic textures of two U-10Mo samples homogenized at 900°C and 1000°C were studied after uniaxial rolling and annealing. A total of 6 samples were analyzed upon rolling using a combination of hot and cold rolling conditions to strains of 83%, 90% and 97% and subsequently annealed at 700°C for one hour. Microstructures and textures were analyzed via electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) for each homogenization, strain and post-annealed states. Results show that the U-10Mo exhibits typical rolling textures seen in body-centered cubic materials with increasing intensities of both a- and ?-fibers with increasing strain. After recrystallization, the texture appeared to be effectively randomized in all samples. Homogenization temperature showed no effect on the rolling and recrystallization behavior. Potential factors leading to the randomization of texture are discussed along with the implications of textures on the minimization of DP.

nuclear fuel, texture, rolling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating basis functions in massive fields under the spatial mixed effects model

Abstract Spatial prediction is commonly achieved under the assumption of a Gaussian random field by obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters, and then using the kriging equations to arrive at predicted values. For massive datasets, fixed rank kriging using the expectation–maximization algorithm for estimation has been proposed as an alternative to the usual but computationally prohibitive kriging method. The method reduces computation cost of estimation by redefining the spatial process as a linear combination of basis functions and spatial random effects. A disadvantage of this method is that it imposes constraints on the relationship between the observed locations and the knots. We develop an alternative method that utilizes the spatial mixed effects model, but allows for additional flexibility by estimating the range of the spatial dependence between the observations and the knots via an alternating expectation conditional maximization algorithm. Experiments show that our methodology improves estimation without sacrificing prediction accuracy while also minimizing the additional computational burden of extra parameter estimation. The methodology is applied to a temperature dataset archived by the United States National Climate Data Center, with improved results over previous methodology.

Pazdernik, Karl↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep learning of parameterized equations with applications to uncertainty quantification

We propose a learning algorithm for discovering unknown parameterized dynamical systems by using observational data of the state variables. Our method is built upon and extends the recent work of discovering unknown dynamical systems, in particular those using deep neural network (DNN). We propose a DNN structure, largely based upon the residual network (ResNet), to not only learn the unknown form of the governing equation but also take into account the random effect embedded in the system, which is generated by the random parameters. Once the DNN model is successfully constructed, it is able to produce system prediction over longer term and for arbitrary parameter values. For uncertainty quantification, it allows us to conduct uncertainty analysis by evaluating solution statistics over the parameter space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data driven investigation to understand the influence of total solids on biological biogas upgrading

In situ biogas upgrading achieves CO 2 conversion to CH 4 via hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis; however, gas-liquid mass transfer constraints limit the upgrading performance. Recognizing that optimization studies often underrepresent the effects of total solids (TS) and organic loading rate (OLR), this study undertook a holistic, statistics driven assessment of operating conditions for in situ H 2 assisted biogas upgrading, centering the analysis on TS and OLR. A dataset of 31 studies was compiled and comprised 99 observations. A rigorous analytical framework was employed, combining data standardization, fixed- and random-effects (REML) weighted regressions with cluster-robust errors, stratified analyses, and machine learning. Mixed-effects meta regression indicated that TS was the main factor explaining differences of methane fraction (CH 4 %) when considering the between studies heterogeneity. Focusing on a near-stoichiometric subset (H 2 /CO 2 ≈ 4:1), TS remained significant. Stratified results showed a stronger negative relationship between TS and CH 4 % in UASB reactors than in CSTRs, with a negative effect under mesophilic conditions and no significant effect under thermophilic conditions. A Random Forest model corroborated the statistical findings, consistently ranking H 2 /CO 2 ratio, OLR, TS, and hydrogen injection rate (HIR) as the most influential predictors. These findings delineate trends across increasing TS levels, particularly between 1% and 10%, and provide preliminary insights for TS above 15% in in situ biogas upgrading. They further provide insights for the influence of TS by reactor type and temperature, thereby advancing the evidence base for implementing biological CO 2 conversion to CH 4 in practice.

In situ biogas upgrading↗
DOE OSTI2025

Caught in headlights: Captive white-tailed deer responses to variations in vehicle lighting during imminent collision scenarios

Vehicle collisions with deer (Odocoileus spp.) cause billions of dollars in damages and injure thousands of drivers every year in the United States, and few mitigation methods have proven effective. However, recent research suggests that vehicle lighting might influence white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus; hereafter, deer) responses to oncoming vehicles. Most new vehicles are manufactured with light emitting diode (LED) headlights which differ in total radiance and wavelength of light emitted compared to the previous industry standard of tungstenhalogen (halogen) headlights. Also, frontal vehicle illumination through rear-facing lighting has shown promise in enhancing deer responses to vehicles, but its effectiveness has not been tested under various headlight conditions (headlight type or intensity). As such, it remains unclear how these aspects of vehicle lighting affect deer responses to an approaching vehicle. We used 23 captive, wild-type deer to investigate how variations in vehicle lighting affect deer responses to an approaching vehicle at night, when most collisions occur. We released deer into a 95 m long, 3 m wide chute and approached them from the opposite end with an electric golf cart outfitted with two versions of stock 2017–2020 Ford Fusion headlights (LED and halogen) and a 51 cm rear-facing lightbar to test how vehicle lighting affected deer avoidance behaviors in an imminent, head-on collision scenario. Each deer received eight lighting treatments consisting of unique combinations of headlight type (LED vs. halogen), light intensity (low vs. high beam), and rear-facing lighting (lightbar off vs. on). We measured deer alert and flight behavior using infrared videography. We found that the halogen, high beam, lightbar off treatment had the greatest probability of evoking an alert response. Furthermore, when the lightbar was off, high beams appeared to increase alert probability for halogen headlights. Also, we found evidence that high beam, halogen headlights tend to increase alert probability over high beam, LED headlights, when the lighbar was off. We found no effect of our lighting treatments on deer alert distance, flight probability, or flight initiation distance. Across all behavioral responses, the random effect deer ID explained 0.86–9.19 × more variation than our lighting treatments, reflecting large differences in responses among deer. Overall, we found that vehicle lighting can impact deer behavior during an imminent, head-on collision scenario, although lighting was ineffective at increasing favorable flight behaviors. Future research should investigate how vehicle lighting treatments affect free-ranging, wild deer in a variety of real-world scenarios and at longer approach distances.

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) Deer be↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Robust Segmented Mixed Effect Regression Model for Baseline Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Renewable energy production has been surging around the world in recent years. To mitigate the increasing uncertainty and intermittency of the renewable generation, proactive demand response algorithms and programs are proposed and developed to further improve the utilization of load flexibility and increase the efficiency of power system operation. One of the biggest challenges to efficient control and operation of demand response resources is how to forecast the baseline electricity consumption and estimate the load impact from demand response resources accurately. In this paper, we propose a mixed effect segmented regression model and a new robust estimate for forecasting the baseline electricity consumption in Southern California, USA, by combining the ideas of random effect regression model, segmented regression model, and the least trimmed squares estimate. Since the log-likelihood of the considered model is not differentiable at breakpoints, we propose a new backfitting algorithm to estimate the unknown parameters. The estimation performance of the new estimation procedure has been demonstrated with both simulation studies and the real data application for the electric load baseline forecasting in Southern California.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supercapacitance and superinductance of TiN and NbTiN films in the vicinity of superconductor-to-insulator transition

We investigate the low-temperature complex impedance of disordered insulating thin TiN and NbTiN films in the frequency region 400 Hz–1 MHz in close proximity to the superconductor–insulator transition (SIT). The frequency, temperature, and magnetic field dependencies of the real and imaginary parts of the impedance indicate that in full accord with the theoretical predictions and earlier observations, the films acquire self-induced electronic granularity and become effectively random arrays of superconducting granules coupled via Josephson links. Accordingly, the inductive component of the response is due to superconducting droplets, while the capacitive component results from the effective Josephson junctions capacitances. The impedance crosses over from capacitive to inductive behavior as films go across the transition.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗