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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Automated Air Sealing Demonstration: Denver Federal Center Building 40

This project aimed to demonstrate building airtightness achieved by automated air sealing in a commercial building setting. The automated air sealing demonstrated in this project uses a modified blower door to pressurize and distribute the sealing aerosol to achieve the required building airtightness. To demonstrate this technology, Building 40 at the Denver Federal Center, a federally owned campus under the jurisdiction, custody and control of the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA), was selected for testing (Figure 2). This building is currently undergoing several retrofit projects, including increasing insulation, installing high-performance windows, and adding advanced equipment, control systems, and automated air sealing. This demonstration project involved installing automated air sealing and measuring the improvements in the building's airtightness. The automated air sealing was installed over two days by AeroBarrier, the vendor. An external blower door test contractor measured the airtightness of the demonstration space before and after air sealing. The new airtightness value and the percentage increase in airtightness were used to evaluate the energy savings potential of automated air sealing. These airtightness values were used to compute the energy savings and CO 2 emissions reduction for different climate zones, building types, and initial airtightness conditions. In addition, the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) load reduction attributable to the reduced building air leakage was studied. This study included research to determine the cost and time reduction of automated air sealing. Finally, the automated air sealing performance was evaluated qualitatively using a focus group discussion that included GSA and Bristol, the general contractor. The installation has shown the demonstration site, with a floor size of 4,462 ft 2 , air leakage has reduced by more than 50% in less than 7 hours, including preparation, site sealing, and cleanup. The performance objectives were classified as quantitative or qualitative based on the evaluation metrics used to assess the project’s success. The key performance objectives for this project were the level of airtightness achieved, the time and cost required to perform the sealing, and the HVAC load reduction attributable to air sealing. Table 1 shows the quantitative performance objectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Saccadic Component Measure on Smooth Pursuit Tests

ABSTRACT Introduction Despite the advancement of eye-tracking technology for smooth pursuit (SP) eye movement evaluation, qualitative observation offers much information that is not captured by computers; hence, both objective and qualitative information should be utilized to evaluate SP. This study examined the consistency among our clinicians when evaluating SP using normal (N), grossly normal (GN), mildly abnormal (MA), and abnormal (AB) as classifications. We then evaluated the effect of combining GN and MA into a single subclinical (SUBC) category. We also evaluated the computerized percent saccade (PS) metric by determining its sensitivity and specificity in classifying SP. Materials and Methods Retrospective horizontal and vertical SP test videos and numerical data for 70 participants were obtained from the Neuro Kinetics Neuro-Otologic Test Center and de-identified. From this, eye-tracking videos, time plots of eye-tracking positional data, and tables of SP eye-tracking performance data were generated for 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 Hz in both horizontal and vertical planes, totaling 6 tests per subject. Three clinicians rated each subject’s SP performance as N, GN, MA, or AB for a total of 6 ratings (3 frequencies, horizontal and vertical). This process was repeated using N, SUBC, and AB as rating categories. Clinicians also provided an overall SP rating for each plane as follows: AB if the results were abnormal for 2 or more frequencies tested. Alternatively, if fewer than 2 frequencies presented with a rating of AB, then an overall rating of MA, GN, or N was determined at the respective clinician’s discretion. Results When the 3 clinicians were tasked with classifying SP videos using 4 clinical categories, fair overall agreement was demonstrated. However, when MA and GN categories were combined into an SUBC category, the overall agreement for the 3 clinicians improved slightly for both horizontal SP (HSP) and vertical SP (VSP). This pattern of agreement did not differ considerably when comparing HSP versus VSP, and good consistency and reliability was observed across clinicians. Again, inter-rater consistency was smaller for VSP versus HSP despite the reduction in clinical categories. Cut-off values were generated for the PS metric and demonstrated good specificity and sensitivity when they were exceeded for 2 or more frequencies in a particular plane when evaluating a subject’s SP test. Conclusions

General & Internal Medicine↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilient cooling strategies – A critical review and qualitative assessment

The global effects of climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as heatwaves and power outages, which have consequences for buildings and their cooling systems. Buildings and their cooling systems should be designed and operated to be resilient under such events to protect occupants from potentially dangerous indoor thermal conditions. This study performed a critical review on the state-of-the-art of cooling strategies, with special attention to their performance under heatwaves and power outages. We proposed a definition of resilient cooling and described four criteria for resilience—absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, restorative capacity, and recovery speed —and used them to qualitatively evaluate the resilience of each strategy. The literature review and qualitative analyses show that to attain resilient cooling, the four resilience criteria should be considered in the design phase of a building or during the planning of retrofits. The building and relevant cooling system characteristics should be considered simultaneously to withstand extreme events. A combination of strategies with different resilience capacities, such as a passive envelope strategy coupled with a low-energy space-cooling solution, may be needed to obtain resilient cooling. Finally, a further direction for a quantitative assessment approach has been pointed out.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation for Representative Human Reliability Analysis Methods

The Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS) is the regulatory expert organization established by the Korean government to strengthen the nation’s technical capabilities relating to nuclear safety regulation. KINS oversees the technical aspects of nuclear safety regulation, including safety reviews, inspections, education, and safety research—all conducted based on technical knowledge and accumulated regulatory experience. In 2023, KINS requested that Idaho National Laboratory (INL) validates representative human reliability analysis (HRA) methods used throughout the world, thus affording KINS with a basis for determining an HRA method adequate for its domestic regulatory purposes. The present paper mainly examines INL’s efforts in this regard. The resulting INL study covered four representative HRA methods widely used by nuclear utilities and regulatory institutes. These methods were qualitatively evaluated by applying specific evaluation criteria and determining how well each method reflected critical HRA issues. For this assessment, INL benchmarked the Halden International HRA Empirical Study. Using the Halden empirical data, along with information on human failure events (HFEs), the present study employed the selected HRA methods to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) for the HFEs. It also performed statistical analyses to compare the HEPs predicted via the HRA methods against those from the Halden empirical data.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Compilation and Evaluation of Data from Groundwater Impounded within the U12n and U12t Tunnels, Rainier and Aqueduct Mesas, Nevada National Security Site

The Department of Defense (DOD) Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management Nevada Program (EM NV) conducted routine physical and geochemical monitoring of water impounded behind impermeable structures placed within the U12n and U12t tunnels on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) (formerly the Nevada Test Site [NTS]). Desert Research Institute (DRI) conducted a semiquantitative evaluation of pressure data to determine the extent to which the tunnels have been inundated and a qualitative evaluation of monitored geochemical parameters to determine if trends exist that were indicative of hydrologic and/or geochemical processes operating behind the tunnel plugs. Data were also evaluated to determine if monitored radiological parameters exceeded primary standards associated with the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) (40 C.F.R. § 141.66).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Demonstrating the viability of Lagrangian in situ reduction on supercomputers

Performing exploratory analysis and visualization of large-scale time-varying computational science applications is challenging due to inaccuracies that arise from under-resolved data. In recent years, Lagrangian representations of the vector field computed using in situ processing are being increasingly researched and have emerged as a potential solution to enable exploration. However, prior works have offered limited estimates of the encumbrance on the simulation code as they consider “theoretical” in situ environments. Further, the effectiveness of this approach varies based on the nature of the vector field, benefitting from an in-depth investigation for each application area. With this study, an extended version of Sane et al. (2021), we contribute an evaluation of Lagrangian analysis viability and efficacy for simulation codes executing at scale on a supercomputer. We investigated previously unexplored cosmology and seismology applications as well as conducted a performance benchmarking study by using a hydrodynamics mini-application targeting exascale computing. Here, to inform encumbrance, we integrated in situ infrastructure with simulation codes, and evaluated Lagrangian in situ reduction in representative homogeneous and heterogeneous HPC environments. To inform post hoc accuracy, we conducted a statistical analysis across a range of spatiotemporal configurations as well as a qualitative evaluation. Additionally, our study contributes cost estimates for distributed-memory post hoc reconstruction. In all, we demonstrate viability for each application — data reduction to less than 1% of the total data via Lagrangian representations, while maintaining accurate reconstruction and requiring under 10% of total execution time in over 90% of our experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Functional Relevance of CASP16 Nucleic Acid Predictions as Evaluated by Structure Providers

ABSTRACT Accurate biomolecular structure prediction enables the prediction of mutational effects, the speculation of function based on predicted structural homology, the analysis of ligand binding modes, experimental model building, and many other applications. Such algorithms to predict essential functional and structural features remain out of reach for biomolecular complexes containing nucleic acids. Here, we report a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of nucleic acid structures for the CASP16 blind prediction challenge by 12 of the experimental groups who provided nucleic acid targets. Blind predictions accurately model secondary structure and some aspects of tertiary structure, including reasonable global folds for some complex RNAs; however, predictions often lack accuracy in the regions of highest functional importance. All models have inaccuracies in non‐canonical regions where, for example, the nucleic‐acid backbone bends, deviating from an A‐form helix geometry, or a base forms a non‐standard hydrogen bond (not a Watson‐Crick base pair). These bends and non‐canonical interactions are integral to forming functionally important regions such as RNA enzymatic active sites. Additionally, the modeling of conserved and functional interfaces between nucleic acids and ligands, proteins, or other nucleic acids remains poor. For some targets, the experimental structures may not represent the only structure the biomolecular complex occupies in solution or in its functional life cycle, posing a future challenge for the community.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Open Source Evaluation Framework for Solar Forecasting

The Solar Forecast Arbiter is an open-source evaluation framework for solar forecasting. The framework enables evaluations of solar irradiance, solar power, and net-load forecasts that are impartial, repeatable and auditable. The Solar Forecast Arbiter addresses stakeholder-informed use cases including evaluation of forecast skill, comparisons to reference data sets, private forecast trials, and evaluation of probabilistic forecast skill. The framework includes a data validation toolkit, reference data sources, data privacy protocols, and benchmark forecast capabilities for intra-hour and day ahead forecast horizons. Reports and metrics communicate the relative merits of the test and benchmark forecasts. The reports are created from standardized templates and include graphics for qualitatively evaluating deterministic and probabilistic forecasts and standard metrics for quantitatively evaluating forecasts. The Solar Forecast Arbiter is designed to support all solar forecasting stakeholders, including Solar Forecasting 2 Topic Area 2 and Topic Area 3 teams.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A ductility metric for refractory-based multi-principal-element alloys

We propose a quantum-mechanical dimensionless metric, the local-lattice distortion (LLD), as a reliable predictor of ductility in refractory multi-principal-element alloys (RMPEAs). The LLD metric is based on electronegativity differences in localized chemical environments and combines atomic-scale displacements due to local lattice distortions with a weighted average of valence-electron count. To evaluate the effectiveness of this metric, we examined body-centered cubic (bcc) refractory alloys that exhibit ductile-to-brittle behavior. Our findings demonstrate that local-charge behavior can be tuned via composition to enhance ductility in RMPEAs. With finite-sized cell effects eliminated, the LLD metric accurately predicted the ductility of arbitrary alloys, which compares well with existing tensile-elongation experiments. To validate further, we qualitatively evaluated the ductility of two refractory RMPEAs, i.e., NbTaMoW and Mo 72 W 13 Ta 10 Ti 2.5 Zr 2.5 , through the observation of crack formation under indentation, again showing excellent agreement with LLD predictions. Additionally, a comparative study of three refractory alloys provides further insights into the electronic-structure origin of ductility in refractory RMPEAs. This proposed metric enables rapid and accurate assessment of ductility behavior in the vast RMPEA composition space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating Cambium Marginal Costs into Electric Sector Decisions: Opportunities to Integrate Cambium Marginal Cost Data into Berkeley Lab Analysis and Technical Assistance

NREL’s Cambium tool generates forward-looking simulations of marginal wholesale electricity costs associated with NREL’s Standard Scenarios. The scenarios include growing shares of variable renewable energy (VRE, i.e. wind and solar), among other power sector assumptions, between 2018 and 2050. The tool’s primary output—hourly costs at more than 130 balancing areas—could serve as public and transparent data source that supports electric-sector decision-making processes across the U.S. Berkeley Lab conducts a large range of analyses that use historical and forward-looking wholesale electricity prices to inform electric-sector decisions. In this report, Berkeley Lab uses its expertise to evaluate the Cambium cost data. We compare Cambium data with historical wholesale prices for the year 2018 and other modeled prices for the year 2030. We then present eight case studies in which Berkeley Lab researchers use Cambium data to replicate previous analyses based on other price datasets. We describe where primary findings and underlying key price dynamics align or differ, and highlight possible novel insights from the Cambium data. Finally, we qualitatively evaluate the suitability of Cambium costs in ten additional Berkeley Lab studies, though a direct comparison with alternative price data was not feasible at this time. The goal is to inform how electric-sector decision-makers and DOE program offices may be able to use this cohesive dataset, and to highlight what improvements to Cambium may make it even more useful.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing data change in scientific datasets

Summary Scientific datasets are growing rapidly and becoming critical to next‐generation scientific discoveries. The validity of scientific results relies on the quality of data used and data are often subject to change, for example, due to observation additions, quality assessments, or processing software updates. The effects of data change are not well understood and difficult to predict. Datasets are often repeatedly updated and recomputing derived data products quickly becomes time consuming and resource intensive and may in some cases not even be necessary, thus delaying scientific advance. Despite its importance, there is a lack of systematic approaches for best comparing data versions to quantify the changes, and ad‐hoc or manual processes are commonly used. In this article, we propose a novel hierarchical approach for analyzing data changes, including real‐time (online) and offline analyses. We employ a variety of fast‐to‐compute numerical analyses, graphical data change representations, and more resource‐intensive recomputations of a subset of the data product. We illustrate the application of our approach using three scientific diverse use cases, namely, satellite, cosmological, and x‐ray data. The results show that a variety of data change metrics should be employed to enable a comprehensive representation and qualitative evaluation of data changes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Local bilinear computation of Jacobi sets

Abstract We propose a novel method for the computation of Jacobi sets in 2D domains. The Jacobi set is a topological descriptor based on Morse theory that captures gradient alignments among multiple scalar fields, which is useful for multi-field visualization. Previous Jacobi set computations use piecewise linear approximations on triangulations that result in discretization artifacts like zig-zag patterns. In this paper, we utilize a local bilinear method to obtain a more precise approximation of Jacobi sets by preserving the topology and improving the geometry. Consequently, zig-zag patterns on edges are avoided, resulting in a smoother Jacobi set representation. Our experiments show a better convergence with increasing resolution compared to the piecewise linear method. We utilize this advantage with an efficient local subdivision scheme. Finally, our approach is evaluated qualitatively and quantitatively in comparison with previous methods for different mesh resolutions and across a number of synthetic and real-world examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explaining word embeddings with perfect fidelity: a case study in predicting research impact

The best-performing approaches for scholarly document quality prediction are based on embedding models. In addition to their performance when used in classifiers, embedding models can also provide predictions even for words that were not contained in the labelled training data for the classification model, which is important in the context of the ever-evolving research terminology. Although model-agnostic explanation methods, such as Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations, can be applied to explain machine learning classifiers trained on embedding models, these produce results with questionable correspondence to the model. We introduce a new feature importance method, Self-Model Entities Rated (SMER), for logistic regression-based classification models trained on word embeddings. We show that SMER has theoretically perfect fidelity with the explained model, as the average of logits of SMER scores for individual words (SMER explanation) exactly corresponds to the logit of the prediction of the explained model. Quantitative and qualitative evaluation is performed through five diverse experiments conducted on 50,000 research articles (papers) from the CORD-19 corpus. In conclusion, through an AOPC curve analysis, we experimentally demonstrate that SMER produces better explanations than LIME, SHAP and global tree surrogates.

Coarse-grained models↗
DOE OSTI2020

Error-mitigated data-driven circuit learning on noisy quantum hardware

Application-level benchmarks measure how well a quantum device performs meaningful calculations. In the case of parameterized circuit training, the computational task is the preparation of a target quantum state via optimization over a loss landscape. This is complicated by various sources of noise, fixed hardware connectivity, and generative modeling, the choice of target distribution. Gradient-based training has become a useful benchmarking task for noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers because of the additional requirement that the optimization step uses the quantum device to estimate the loss function gradient. In this work, we use gradient-based data-driven circuit learning to qualitatively evaluate the performance of several superconducting platform devices and present results that show how error mitigation can improve the training of quantum circuit Born machines with 28 tunable parameters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ronchi shearing interferometry for wavefronts with circular symmetry

Ronchi testing of a focused electromagnetic wave has in the last few years been used extensively at X-ray free-electron laser (FEL) facilities to qualitatively evaluate the wavefront of the beam. It is a quick and straightforward test, is easy to interpret on the fly, and can be used to align phase plates that correct the focus of aberrated beams. In general, a single Ronchigram is not sufficient to gain complete quantitative knowledge of the wavefront. However the compound refractive lenses that are commonly used at X-ray FELs exhibit a strong circular symmetry in their aberration, and this can be exploited. Furthermore, a simple algorithm that uses a single recorded Ronchigram to recover the full wavefront of a nano-focused beam, assuming circular symmetry, is presented, and applied to experimental measurements at the Matter in Extreme Conditions instrument at the Linac Coherent Light Source.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗