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Chapter 17: Residential Behavior Evaluation Protocol. The Uniform Methods Project: Methods for Determining Energy Efficiency Savings for Specific Measures, September 2011 - August 2020

This document has been updated in August 2020. This document was developed for the U.S. Department of Energy Uniform Methods Project (UMP). The UMP provides model protocols for determining energy and demand savings that result from specific energy-efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The protocols are updated on an as-needed basis. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions,evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation. To learn more about the UMP, visit the website, https://energy.gov/eere/about-us/ump-home, or download the UMP introduction document at http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/68557.pdf.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Chapter 22: Compressed Air Evaluation Protocol. The Uniform Methods Project: Methods for Determining Energy Efficiency Savings for Specific Measures (September 2011 - August 2020)

Compressed-air systems are used widely throughout industry for many operations, including pneumatic tools, packaging and automation equipment, conveyors, and other industrial process operations. Compressed-air systems are defined as a group of subsystems composed of air compressors, air treatment equipment, controls, piping, pneumatic tools, pneumatically powered machinery, and process applications using compressed air. A compressed-air system has three primary functional subsystems: supply, distribution, and demand. Air compressors are the primary energy consumers in a compressed-air system and are the primary focus of this protocol. The two compressed-air energy efficiency measures specifically addressed in this protocol are: high-efficiency/variable speed drive (VSD) compressor replacing modulating, load/unload, or constant-speed compressor; compressed-air leak survey and repairs. This protocol provides direction on how to reliably verify savings from these two measures using a consistent approach for each.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A projection method for particle resampling

Particle discretizations of partial differential equations are advantageous for high-dimensional kinetic models in phase-space due to their better scalability than continuum approaches with respect to dimension. Complex processes collectively referred to as particle noise hamper long time simulations with particle methods. One approach to address this problem is particle mesh adaptivity, or remapping, known as particle resampling and remeshing. Here, this work introduces a resampling method that projects particles to and from a (finite element) function space. The method is simple, using standard sparse linear algebra and finite element techniques, and it preserves all moments up to the order of a polynomial represented exactly by the continuum function space. It is distinguished from most other mesh-based methods in that new particle positions and number are decoupled from the mesh, allowing particle and continuum meshes to be adapted relatively independently. While this work is developed with structured particle and continuum phase-space grids on 1X + 1V Vlasov-Poisson models of Landau damping and two-stream instability, the method is well-suited to unstructured grids. Stable long time dynamics are demonstrated up to time T = 500. Reproducibility artifacts and data are publicly available.

Kinetic methods↗

Uniform Methods Project: History and Updates [Slides]

This presentation provides an overview of the 2026 update effort and summarizes the drivers and history of the Uniform Methods Project (UMP). The presentation will be used in a public webinar to facilitate stakeholder participation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Eulerian thermo-mechanical simulations of heterogeneous solid propellants using an approximate projection method

We present a mathematical model that describes thermo-mechanical deformations and thermal gradients on the unsteady burning of a heterogeneous solid propellant. A scaling study shows that the deformations in solid at combustion timescales can be treated as quasi-static. The resulting thermo-mechanical formulation is formulated on a Cartesian grid and makes use of a weak form of Chorin-type projection method to deal with large difference in shear modulus of constituent materials. Further, a one-dimensional verification study is carried out by comparing numerical simulations with those of an analytical model. In addition, convergence studies for a two-dimensional propellant sandwich configuration are presented for the stress, velocity, and reference map components. Finally, simulations are carried out for a two-dimensional random propellant pack and the time-averaged burn rate and strains are reported.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Uniform Methods Project: Smart Thermostat Evaluation Protocol

A smart thermostat is an internet-connected device that controls home heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) equipment and can automatically adjust temperature set points to optimize performance and achieve energy savings. Smart thermostat features often include two way communication, occupancy detection (such as geofencing and occupancy sensors), schedule learning, and seasonal optimization algorithms. Smart thermostats can control most conventional HVAC systems, including central air conditioners, heat pumps, and forced air furnaces. Several types of residential utility programs offer smart thermostats as replacements measures. Working with smart thermostat vendors, utilities can offer separate optimization programs to produce energy savings beyond those achieved by installing a smart thermostat. From an evaluation perspective, smart thermostat programs have several noteworthy features. First, the energy savings from a smart thermostat may change over the life of the device. As a smart thermostat is connected to the internet, original equipment manufacturers can update the thermostat software to improve the thermostat's energy efficiency. Likewise, users can adjust the thermostat settings and schedules over time in response to changes in weather, thermal comfort, energy prices, or preferences for energy efficiency. Additionally, many thermostat manufacturers offer seasonal optimization programs that recommend changes or make minor, automated adjustments to the thermostat settings to improve energy efficiency. These opt-in programs are now standard offerings for many smart thermostat manufacturers and provided at no additional cost to users. The potential for software updates and continuous optimization and the evolving nature of user interactions mean future energy savings may differ from first-year savings and the energy savings of smart thermostats may need to be evaluated more than once. Second, smart thermostats often have small unit energy savings relative to a home's total energy consumption, especially in comparison to whole- home retrofit programs. This can make it difficult to detect the smart thermostat savings in billing or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data. For example, as cooling loads in many regions average about 20% of annual electricity consumption, smart thermostat savings of 10% of cooling energy use would equate to a 2% reduction in home electricity consumption. Evaluators should use regression analysis of whole-home billing consumption or advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) meter consumption data to evaluate smart thermostat savings because, as explained at greater length below , these data are usually available to evaluators and regression can control for the impacts of weather and other potentially confounding factors on a home's energy consumption. Finally, as with other energy efficiency programs, participation in smart thermostat programs is self-selective. As discussed at greater length below , smart thermostat participants tend to be, among other things, younger, higher-income, and more likely to adopt electric vehicles (EVs) and internet connected devices than nonparticipants. These differences are often unobservable to the evaluator and correlated with a home's energy consumption, creating the potential for bias in estimating savings. Due to the small unit savings of thermostats, errors and biases from self-selection that may not be very consequential when evaluating a whole- home retrofits (e.g., ±2% of home electricity consumption) can have a major impact when evaluating the savings and cost-effectiveness of smart thermostat programs. A percentage point change in the estimated savings could affect the cost-effectiveness of a program. This means it is important for evaluators to assess and to minimize the potential for error from selection bias in estimating smart thermostat program savings. The Uniform Methods Project provides model protocols for determining energy savings and demand reductions that result from specific energy efficiency measures implemented through state and utility programs. In most cases, the measure protocols are based on a particular option identified by the International Performance Verification and Measurement Protocol ; however, this work provides a more detailed approach to implementing that option. Each chapter is written by technical experts in collaboration with their peers, reviewed by industry experts, and subject to public review and comment. The UMP protocols can be used by utilities, program administrators, public utility commissions, evaluators, and other stakeholders for both program planning and evaluation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Highly Resolved Reference Projections of Building Energy Use for the Contiguous United States: Building Sector Energy Baselines, Projection Methods, and Results

This report describes one methodology of projecting energy consumption of the US residential and commercial building sectors using NREL's ResStock™ and ComStock™ as well as growth rates derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The impetus for this work is to provide an intermediate method for compiling demand-side sectoral energy projections that is suitable for grid-scale analysis, such as NREL's Standard Scenarios. ResStock and ComStock are physics-based and statistically representative building stock models of the US residential and commercial sector, respectively. Using the 2012 actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, the sectoral energy baselines are simulated and then segmented along key dimensions (e.g., geography, dwelling/building type). The segmented results are then scaled using the corresponding annual growth rates derived from the 2021 AEO reference case to produce energy projections out to 2050. The compiled result is a demand-side grid model (dsgrid) data set suitable for use in NREL's large-scale grid models, such as the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). This simple projection method does not endogenously represent how the building stock could evolve through time. Most notably, it does not reflect large-scale electrification, for example, the conversion of space heating, water heating, clothes drying, and cooking from primary fossil fuels to electricity, as this is not part of AEO's reference case assumptions. Nonetheless this approach is more resolved and potentially extensible compared to the current method used by Standard Scenarios's reference case, which augments a sector's total load based on a single growth rate from AEO.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Preliminary Analysis of Source Physics Experiment Explosion-Triggered Microseismicity Using the Back-Projection Method

A series of four chemical explosions were detonated in a deep borehole within the Yucca Flat Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) at the Nevada National Security Site between 2018 and 2019. The two larger chemical explosions of 50 tons (DAG-2) and 10 tons (DAG-4) TNT equivalent yield triggered energetic aftershock sequences numbering 1392 and 347 microearthquakes, respectively, within the first 10 days. No significant aftershock activity was observed for the two smaller 1-ton explosions (DAG-1 and DAG-3). Here, we used a back-projection method based on travel-time migration and stacking of signal-to-noise ratio traces to detect, associate and locate aftershocks from a subset of 22-geophones within a larger 2 urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb54910:jgrb54910-math-0001 2 km seismic array surrounding the borehole. The aftershocks located within 300 m of the borehole and the depths were above the working points of 300 and 50 m depths of DAG-2 and DAG-4, respectively, ruling out triggering slip on geologic faults or disturbances beneath neighboring collapse craters. DAG-2 and DAG-4 aftershocks decayed at similar rates, with power-law exponents of p = 1.48 and p = 1.49, respectively. These decay rates are comparable to aftershocks sequences triggered by earthquakes and historical nuclear explosions at Yucca Flat. A smooth power-law aftershock decay within the first 10 days suggests a triggering mechanism from explosion generated stress relaxation due to the diffusion of high gas pressures in the cavity and radial fractures. A more random and episodic aftershock rate would be expected due to cavity collapse or falling rubble in chimney formation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Project Methods to Enhance Wellbore Cement Integrity with Microbially-Induced Calcite Precipitation (MICP) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The goal of this project was to develop improved methods for sealing compromised wellbore cement in leaking oil and gas wells, thereby reducing the risk of unwanted upward fluid migration. Novel methods for improving wellbore integrity, such as microbially induced calcite precipitation (MICP), can reduce leakage potential, improve the safety of fossil fuel extraction, improve the public perception of hydraulic fracturing, and promote environmentally-prudent unconventional oil and gas development. Microbes, with the urease enzyme, can catalyze the chemical reaction of urea hydrolysis to induce the precipitation of calcium carbonate which can be used as a cementitious material to seal leakage pathways. In this project, methods to promote robust bio-composite cementitious materials were designed and tested in the laboratory. Scale-up of those methods were tested in meso-scale reactor systems and in field applications. In this report, in Section One, we describe laboratory efforts to develop injection strategies to promote precipitation in wellbore analogs and determine the strength of the bio-composite cements as compared to fine cement. In Section Two, we describe the efforts to scale up the work and study the use of materials that can be used in field application, for example exploring the use of calcium chloride ice melt or urea fertilizer as source chemicals. In Section Three, the three field trials (methods and results) performed as part of the project are described and summarized. At the end of the report is a comprehensive summary and conclusion section which highlights the key findings of the project. The work performed during this project significantly advanced the technology readiness level (TRL) of the MICP wellbore sealing strategy.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Hybrid Lagrangian/Eulerian Collocated Velocity Advection and Projection Method for Fluid Simulation

Abstract We present a hybrid particle/grid approach for simulating incompressible fluids on collocated velocity grids. Our approach supports both particle‐based Lagrangian advection in very detailed regions of the flow and efficient Eulerian grid‐based advection in other regions of the flow. A novel Backward Semi‐Lagrangian method is derived to improve accuracy of grid based advection. Our approach utilizes the implicit formula associated with solutions of the inviscid Burgers’ equation. We solve this equation using Newton's method enabled by C 1 continuous grid interpolation. We enforce incompressibility over collocated, rather than staggered grids. Our projection technique is variational and designed for B‐spline interpolation over regular grids where multiquadratic interpolation is used for velocity and multilinear interpolation for pressure. Despite our use of regular grids, we extend the variational technique to allow for cut‐cell definition of irregular flow domains for both Dirichlet and free surface boundary conditions.

Gagniere, S.↗

Toward a scalable robust security-constrained optimal power flow using a proximal projection bundle method

Robust security-constrained optimal power flow (rSCOPF) aims to find the worst-case contingencies of alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) in power systems. With the rise of GPU architectures on the upcoming supercomputer architectures, optimization algorithms that rely on sparse linear algebra and indefinite linear systems are becoming increasingly hard to solve efficiently (e.g. interior-point method). To address this we revisit a maximin optimization formulation of the rSCOPF and the single-level mixed-integer semidefinite programming (MISDP) reformulation, which is obtained by taking the Lagrangian relaxation of the inner minimization ACOPF problem. In this paper, we focus on the development of a proximal projection bundle method (PPBM) for solving continuous relaxation node subproblems of the MISDP problem, based primarily on the well-known alternating direction method of multipliers. Cutting planes reminiscent of bundle method ideas are also applied in coordination with updates of the proximal parameter. The cutting-plane method can generate a large number of linear inequalities, leading to a large scale but decomposable quadratic programming (QP) subproblem that is amenable to GPUs. We present the numerical results on the IEEE 30, 57, 118, and 300-bus systems by using our PBMM method. We discuss the main computational bottleneck of our method, which is the time taken to solve each iteration of a QP subproblem instance of the PPBM, and how GPU architectures can accelerate this solution process.

bundle method↗

A Method for Projecting Cloud Shadows Onto a Central Receiver Field to Predict Receiver Damage

This work demonstrates methods of mapping high-spatial-resolution direct normal irradiance (DNI) data from satellites, Total Sky Imagers (TSIs), and analogous data sources onto a heliostat field for characterizing the spatial and temporal variation of the incident flux on a central receiver tower during cloud transient events. The mapping methods are incorporated into an optical software module that interfaces with CoPylot–SolarPILOT’s python API– to provide computationally efficient optical simulation of the heliostat field and the solar power tower. Eventually, this optical model will be incorporated into optimization models whereby a plant operator can understand the effects of cloud transient events on overall power production and receiver lifetime due to creep-fatigue damage and therefore make better informed decisions about receiver shutdown events. By more accurately modelling the effects of cloud events on receiver flux maps, this work may determine the magnitude and frequency of thermal cycling on receiver tubes and panels using actual or realistic cloud shapes instead of averaged DNI values–which may undercount the total cycle number. This work may also prevent unnecessary plant shutdowns due to overly precautionary control strategies and characterize the relative impact of various cloud types on receiver life. We plan to eventually integrate this methodology into the System Advisor Model (SAM) to improve performance model accuracy during periods of cloudiness. In this paper, we demonstrate generating DNI maps and mapping them to a solar field in CoPylot using 10 m resolution data from publicly available Sentinel-2 satellite data over the Crescent Dunes plant.

Mullin, Matthew↗

Verification of an improved equation-free projective integration method for neoclassical plasma-profile evolution in tokamak geometry

A brute-force, long-time gyrokinetic simulation of plasma profile evolution in magnetic fusion devices is not desirable due to large computational resource requirements and a possible accumulation of numerical error. The equation-free projective integration method of Keverekidis et al. [Commun. Math. Sci. 1(4), 715–762 (2003)] is one of the outstanding candidates in projecting micro-scale simulations to a longer timescale. However, its application to tokamak plasma has not been fruitful due to the appearance of spurious transient oscillations in the lifting process, which are present when the kinetic simulations are initialized with a simplified model distribution function and which make the kinetic simulations to deviate from the desired paths. In this work, a kinetically informed lifting algorithm is added to the equation-free projective integration method, which is then verified in the electrostatic gyrokinetic particle-in-cell code XGCa [R. Hager and C. S. Chang, Phys. Plasmas 23, 042503 (2016)] for a neoclassical ion heat transport problem with adiabatic electrons. This new lifting operator is demonstrated to control spurious transients, enabling an over four-times reduction in the overall computing time in the time-evolution of the ion temperature profile in an axisymmetric toroidal plasma. Further reduction in the computing time is found to be limited due to the stability properties of the linear least squares projective integrator.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Parallel three-dimensional simulations of quasi-static elastoplastic solids

Hypo-elastoplasticity is a flexible framework for modeling the mechanics of many hard materials under small elastic deformation and large plastic deformation. Under typical loading rates, most laboratory tests of these materials happen in the quasi-static limit, but there are few existing numerical methods tailor-made for this physical regime. Here, we extend to three dimensions a recent projection method for simulating quasi-static hypo-elastoplastic materials. The method is based on a mathematical correspondence to the incompressible Navier–Stokes equations, where the projection method of Chorin (1968) is an established numerical technique. We develop and utilize a three-dimensional parallel geometric multigrid solver employed to solve a linear system for the quasi-static projection. Our method is tested through simulation of three-dimensional shear band nucleation and growth, a precursor to failure in many materials. As an example system, we employ a physical model of a bulk metallic glass based on the shear transformation zone theory, but the method can be applied to any elastoplasticity model. We consider several examples of three-dimensional shear banding, and examine shear band formation in physically realistic materials with heterogeneous initial conditions under both simple shear deformation and boundary conditions inspired by friction welding.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗