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At least 19 records

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this work, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.

essential biodiversity variables↗

Computational diagnostics for flame acceleration and transition to detonation in a hydrogen/air mixture

A new computational diagnostic method for pressure-induced compressibility is proposed by projecting its local contribution to the chemical explosive mode (CEM) in the chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA) framework. The new method is validated for the study of detonation development during the deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) process. The flame characteristics are identified through the quantification of individual CEM contributions of chemical reaction, diffusion, and pressure-induced compressibility. Numerical simulations are performed to investigate the DDT processes in a stoichiometric hydrogen-air mixture. A Godunov algorithm, fifth-order in space, and third-order in time are used to solve the fully compressible Navier-Stokes equations on a dynamically adapting mesh. A single-step, calibrated chemical diffusive model (CDM) described by Arrhenius kinetics is used for energy release and conservation between the fuel and the product. The new diagnostic method is first applied to onedimensional (1D) canonical flame configurations followed by two-dimensional (2D) simulations of DDT in an obstructed channel where different detonation initiation scenarios are examined using the new CEMA projection formulation. Detailed examinations of the idealized configuration of detonation initiation through shock focusing mechanism at a flame front are also studied using the new formulation. A comparison of the currently proposed CEMA projection and the original formulation by the authors suggests that including the pressure-induced compressibility is essential for the use of CEMA in DDT process. The results also show that the new formulation of CEMA projection can successively capture the detonation initiation through either a gradient mechanism or a direct initiation mechanism, and therefore can be used as an effective local analytical tool for the computational diagnostics of detonation initiation in a DDT process. It was found that detonation development is characterized by a strong contribution of chemistry role to the CEM which is pivotal to the initiation of detonation. The role of compressibility is found enhanced at the edge of the detonation front where diffusion was found to have minimal effects on detonation development.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Topology optimization of additively manufactured fluidic components free of internal support structures

This report integrates projection-based approaches for implementing overhang constraints with fluid topology optimization to design additively manufactured fluidic components that do not require internal support structures. Internal support structures are challenging, potentially impossible to remove in complex fluid networks, yet would degrade fluidic performance if left within the part. This presents a major challenge in coupling topology optimization with additive manufacturing in the design of fluid components. The proposed approach leverages past work in overhang constraints for solid mechanics, including projection formulations and adjoint sensitivity analysis, and considers incompressible Navier–Stokes equations for laminar fluid flow. The approach is demonstrated on 2D and 3D fluid topology optimization problems to minimize pressure drop and constrain mass flow rates in pipes and manifolds. Resulting designs are crisp, logical, satisfy performance constraints, and satisfy overhang constraints, eliminating the need for internal support structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of a Nearly Autonomous Management and Control (NAMAC) System for Advanced Reactors (Final Report for ARPA-E Project)

The project formulates a technical basis for, and preliminary development of, a Nearly Autonomous Management and Control (NAMAC) system in advanced reactors. The system is intended to provide recommendations to operators during plant operation. The NAMAC system utilizes simulation-informed, data/knowledge-driven, AI-guided, plant-data-assimilated real-time operating procedures to effectively support the operator in risk-informed management of plant operations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

The DREAM approach to demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia, 2020–2060

Indonesia’s current energy system modeling is heavily focused on the supply side, but emissions reductions in the demand sector have a significant impact on advancing Indonesia’s ambitious emissions reductions goals. To address the gap, we develop a new modeling tool DREAM Indonesia based on a bottom-up, technology-rich demand side framework and formulate projections of demand-side emissions reductions in Indonesia in 2020–2060. We find that demand-side energy efficiency and electrification can halve the growth rate of final energy demand to 1.4% annually over 2020–2060 and reverse the growing trend of emissions. The feasibility of full electrification by 2060, coupled with rapid adoption of existing technologies, positions the building sector as a model for achievable decarbonization and a cornerstone of Indonesia’s emissions reductions ambitions. In the industrial sector, extensive emissions reductions of 87% by 2060 (compared to business-as-usual) are achievable through energy efficiency improvements, alongside enhanced material efficiency measures including optimized material usage, low-carbon substitutions, innovative technologies, and increased circularity. In the transportation sector, balancing final energy demand by incorporating energy efficiency improvements across all transport modes, along with electrification particularly in road transportation, could decrease the emissions by up to 82% in 2060 compared to business-as-usual. This study provides insights and modeling approaches for rapidly growing Asian economies as well as other developing countries facing combined development and decarbonization challenges.

DREAM Indonesia↗

Colorado (Pueblo) Regional DAC Hub TA-1: Feasibility (Phase 0a) (Final Technical Report)

This project supports the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) mission to reduce the environmental and climate impacts of fossil fuels and industrial processes, contributing to the goal of achieving net-zero emissions across the U.S. economy. The primary objective is to conduct a feasibility study for a Regional Direct Air Capture (DAC) Hub in the Southern Colorado region, northeast of Pueblo. The geographic construct of this hub is based on the Denver-Julesburg Basin – a geological area where a significant number of geological storage studies have been conducted (See Figure 1). The project will leverage the work of Project Eos, a CarbonSAFE Phase III study led by the Colorado School of Mines and CarbonAmerica. The DAC Hub aims to capture, store, and/or utilize at least 1,000,000 tonnes of CO 2 from the atmosphere annually. To achieve this, the project team is designing a system with an initial capacity of 100,000 tonnes per year. This feasibility-stage project will formulate the Regional DAC Hub concept and team to conduct the relevant analysis, networking and community stakeholder engagement necessary to advance the project to the design stage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Data assimilation in operator algebras

We develop an algebraic framework for sequential data assimilation of partially observed dynamical systems. In this framework, Bayesian data assimilation is embedded in a nonabelian operator algebra, which provides a representation of observables by multiplication operators and probability densities by density operators (quantum states). In the algebraic approach, the forecast step of data assimilation is represented by a quantum operation induced by the Koopman operator of the dynamical system. Moreover, the analysis step is described by a quantum effect, which generalizes the Bayesian observational update rule. Projecting this formulation to finite-dimensional matrix algebras leads to computational schemes that are i) automatically positivity-preserving and ii) amenable to consistent data-driven approximation using kernel methods for machine learning. Moreover, these methods are natural candidates for implementation on quantum computers. Applications to the Lorenz 96 multiscale system and the El Niño Southern Oscillation in a climate model show promising results in terms of forecast skill and uncertainty quantification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Inverse Reinforcement Learning based Bayesian Goal Inference Method for Early Nuclear Proliferation Detection

Traditional methods for detection of nuclear proliferation indicators are usually applied after nuclear proliferation has already occurred. There is a need to advance these methods to perform early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators. In this project, we formulated an early detection problem as a sequential, decision-making, goal inference problem based on research publications of authors, to determine whether it is possible to infer whether an author will publish on a research activity before it has occurred. To develop and test our approach, we selected a civil nuclear activity for our case study. We constructed a state-action-state transition graph from publications of authors associated with the activity and the co-authors of their publications, using titles, abstracts, and author publication sequences. We then used inverse reinforcement learning to model the goal-directed behavior of authors in trajectories that terminate at selected goal states. Using a Bayesian formulation, we computed the probability that authors would reach each selected state from partially observed trajectories of their state transitions in their research topic space. The state with the highest probability was selected as the most probable goal state. Based on our results, we found that 60% of the times we can infer the correct goal state early; sometimes the inference is either delayed, or multiple states could be inferred as goal states. Overall, our results show that it is possible to perform early detection of research activities of authors in a nuclear technology area. Further research is necessary to establish a more accurate understanding of how topic modeling, topic space grid discretization, and the extent of overlap among trajectories of different goal states, affect the goal inference results. The methods developed in this work may be used to enhance data-driven methods for early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Organisation of Diverse Mechanisms of Secondary Ice Production among Basic Convective and Stratiform Cloud-types

This 3-year DoE-funded joint project had the over-arching aim of understanding how ice is initiated in clouds of various types. Focus was given to processes of fragmentation of pre-existing ice, which can occur in positive feedback loops (‘ice multiplication’). A basic question to address was which fragmentation processes prevail in which basic cloud-types. The approach was to use cloud models and field observations, while pioneering our own lab observations of ice initiation to break the deadlock from the past lack of lab observations. Historically, the tendency of the cloud physics community to avoid doing lab observations has allowed a vast gap in knowledge about ice initiation to persist for decades. During the first part of the project, new formulations were created to treat two overlooked types of fragmentation of ice. First, sublimational breakup of ice was treated based on a theoretical formula that we fitted to a pooled dataset of lab observations published previously in the literature. Second, a new mode of fragmentation of freezing raindrops was treated, which involves a supercooled drop being hit by a more massive ice particle. Some of the secondary droplets from the impact freeze. This work was done at Manchester University by Co-I Connolly. Then during the second part, both formulations were implemented in our ‘aerosol-cloud model’ (AC). AC has a hybrid bin/bulk microphysics scheme, and now represents four processes of SIP. The accuracy of AC was evaluated for four cases typifying four basic cloud-types: slightly cold-based stratiform cloud and cold-, warm- and very warm-based convective clouds. We discovered that the warmth of cloud-base, especially in the tropics, promotes SIP processes of raindrop-freezing fragmentation and rime-splintering, and surprisingly, sublimational breakup too. It was found that breakup in ice-ice collisions is ubiquitous. Finally, a portable laboratory chamber was constructed at Lund and deployed in northern Sweden to observe breakup in graupel-snow collisions outdoors. This was seen to be even more prolific than treated in our 2018 formulation. Papers describing results are either published or soon to be published.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simplified Approximations of Direct Cumulus Entrainment and Detrainment

Abstract In recent years, direct calculations of simulated cumulus entrainment and detrainment have facilitated new physical insights into these highly elusive but critically important processes. However, these calculations require substantial computational resources that may limit their widespread usage. To facilitate such calculations, two simplified approximations of direct cumulus entrainment and detrainment are examined herein. The first approximation, termed the “semidirect” method, follows a standard bulk approach but makes more realistic assumptions about the sources of entrained and detrained air near the cloud edges. In contrast, the second approximation (the “projection” method) uses the governing equations of motion to project whether grid points near the cloud edge will entrain or detrain as the mean cloud ascends by one grid point. Verification exercises using large-eddy simulations reveal that both methods generally agree better with corresponding direct entrainment/detrainment estimates than the traditional bulk formulation, with the projection method outperforming the semidirect method. The two methods can be used in a synergistic fashion, with the semidirect method helping to optimize the projection method, to suit a wide range of applications. Because the latter incorporates the essential dynamics of entrainment and detrainment at the local scale, it can be used to gain physical insight into the causal mechanisms regulating these complex processes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Printable Fiber Reinforced Cement Composites – Feasibility Study

Additive manufacturing is enabling the manufacturability of structures with previously unattainable complexity or functionality, and there is growing interest in additive manufacturing of “printed” concrete structures. The focus of this Phase 1 Technical Collaboration (TC) project was to evaluate feasibility of printing hybrid cement composite structures reinforced with textile carbon fibers (tCF). This project leverages other (non-IACMI) projects on cement formulation and printing process development, as well as on the production process for tCF. This project’s primary focus was to explore cement composite mix design with textile carbon fibers to be manufactured by MonteFibre (TC partner) and evaluate suitable fiber-matrix interface or sizing for cement composites working with Michelman (TC Partner). This project supports IACMI’s goal of reducing the cost and embodied energy of carbon fiber composites. Cost is one of the fundamental challenges to carbon fiber reinforced cement composites. Cement is an extremely inexpensive material (approximately $\$$0.05/lb). Adding 1 wt% of conventional carbon fiber to cement quadruples its cost. Therefore, the need to use low-cost carbon fiber and ensure that the additional cost of the carbon fiber has a greater cost benefit to the final product. This was the first preliminary evaluation to integrate tCF reinforcement in cement composites, and such potential tCF utilization should significantly reduce materials cost. Cement composite production is energy and emissions intensive, thus by strengthening it less material will be required. Hence, the embodied energy and production time of the resulting structures will be reduced. Additionally, integrating these new materials into additive processes can enable selective use of the material in high load or stress areas. It is noteworthy that past work in this field of fiber reinforced cement composites did not consider the optimization of fiber-matrix interface using suitable sizing. Carbon fiber reinforcement offers potential added benefits of thermal conductivity (which affects cure rate) and flow behavior that could provide opportunities for site specific utilization of carbon fiber on hybrid cement structures (e.g. use the fiber reinforcement on outer surfaces to enhance strength and modulus and then infiltrating the internal structures with conventional concrete). MonteFibre was the industry lead and planned on supplying the tCF for this project. However, during the short Phase-1 duration of this project, MonteFibre was unable to produce tCF for this project due to manufacturing plant being off-line throughout the course of the project. The project team decided to pursue an alternate option which involved demonstrating printable concrete with steel fibers by the ORNL lead, Dr. Brian Post. The University of Tennessee collaboration team focused on evaluating the suitable chemical sizing for carbon fibers working with Michelman and also developed methods for material characterization of cement-based composites to evaluate the material response for compression, shear, flexure, and tension. The two milestones for University of Tennessee, Knoxville were realized related to identification of one sizing suitable for carbon fiber reinforced cement composite and developing data associated with mechanical behavior of unreinforced (neat) and carbon fiber reinforced cement composites. ORNL could not complete the task of carbon fiber reinforced printed cement composites due to the reasons mentioned earlier, but was able to replace tCF with steel fibers to demonstrate the feasibility of printing with fiber reinforced cement composites. The Project team reviewed possible sizing chemistry available in collaboration with Michelman for use on carbon fiber reinforcement in cement composites and concrete applications. Our initial goal was to identify a sizing most promising for formulation with textile carbon fibers (tCF) to deliver excellent mechanical properties in composite material state. Since tCF was not available for this project as originally envisioned, the team continued this task to identify a suitable sizing for carbon fiber applications by applying such sizing to lower cost carbon fibers currently available commercially from Zoltek called Panex fibers. At a future time this can be optimized for textile carbon fibers from Montefibre. The bulk of previous work on carbon fiber reinforced cement has neglected the importance of fiber-matrix adhesion on mechanical properties of the cement composite and identifying this missing link was an important accomplishment for future research. Tensile behavior of fiber reinforced concrete is important to evaluate in order to realize the dream of concrete products that do not need reinforcing steel. Important sample preparation and testing procedures were addressed in this study and it was concluded that substantial improvements in tensile behavior, without compromising compressive strength, and improved ductility can result from the use of carbon fiber reinforcement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Molten Salt vs. Liquid Sodium Receiver Selection Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

An international team led by NREL analyzed the favorability of two alternative liquid receiver designs for a 700+ degrees C receiver under the Gen3 CSP Liquid Pathway project. The competing liquid heat transfer fluids were a ternary chloride salt and liquid-metal sodium. The team applied a facilitated analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to arrive at a recommended alternative and set a path forward for the project. The AHP criteria were formulated, weighted, and scored by the project leadership team and technical advisory committee consisting of energy industry and CSP experts. The six- month process culminated with a two-day workshop where the sodium alternative was deemed to have both a significantly higher benefit (19.3%) and a lower LCOE (11.4%), with only a slightly higher risk (~3%) than the salt alternative. Consequently, a sodium-receiver design was selected for the Liquid Pathway project, where it will be used to charge a two- tank chloride salt thermal energy storage system.

analytic hierarchy process↗

Sandia's Research in Support of COVID-19 Pandemic Response: Computing and Information Sciences

This report summarizes the goals and findings of eight research projects conducted under the Computing and Information Sciences (CIS) Research Foundation and related to the COVID- 19 pandemic. The projects were all formulated in response to Sandia's call for proposals for rapid-response research with the potential to have a positive impact on the global health emergency. Six of the projects in the CIS portfolio focused on modeling various facets of disease spread, resource requirements, testing programs, and economic impact. The two remaining projects examined the use of web-crawlers and text analytics to allow rapid identification of articles relevant to specific technical questions, and categorization of the reliability of content. The portfolio has collectively produced methods and findings that are being applied by a range of state, regional, and national entities to support enhanced understanding and prediction of the pandemic's spread and its impacts.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Molten Salt vs. Liquid Sodium Receiver Selection Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process: Preprint

An international team led by NREL analyzed the favorability of two alternative liquid receiver designs for a 700+ °C receiver under the Gen3 CSP Liquid Pathway project. The competing liquid heat transfer fluids were a ternary chloride salt and liquid-metal sodium. The team applied a facilitated analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to arrive at a recommended alternative and set a path forward for the project. The AHP criteria were formulated, weighted, and scored by the project leadership team and technical advisory committee consisting of energy industry and CSP experts. The six-month process culminated with a two-day workshop where the sodium alternative was deemed to have both a significantly higher benefit (19.3%) and a lower LCOE (11.4%), with only a slightly higher risk (~3%) than the salt alternative. Consequently, a sodium-receiver design was selected for the Liquid Pathway project, where it will be used to charge a two-tank chloride salt thermal energy storage system.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Molten Salt vs. Liquid Sodium Receiver Selection Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

An international team led by NREL analyzed the favorability of two alternative liquid receiver designs for a 700+ degrees C receiver under the Gen3 CSP Liquid Pathway project. The competing liquid heat transfer fluids were a ternary chloride salt and liquid-metal sodium. The team applied a facilitated analytic hierarchy process to arrive at a recommended alternative and set a path forward for the project. The AHP criteria were formulated, weighted, and scored by the project leadership team and technical advisory committee consisting of energy industry and CSP experts. The six-month process culminated with a two-day workshop where the sodium alternative was deemed to have both a significantly higher benefit (19.3%) and a lower LCOE (11.4%), with only a slightly higher risk (~3%) than the salt alternative. Consequently, a sodium-receiver design was selected for the Liquid Pathway project, where it will be used to charge a two-tank chloride salt thermal energy storage system.

central receiver↗

Differential geometric approaches to momentum-based formulations for fluids [Slides]

This SAND report documents CIS Late Start LDRD Project 22-0311, "Differential geometric approaches to momentum-based formulations for fluids". The project primarily developed geometric mechanics formulations for momentum-based descriptions of nonrelativistic fluids, utilizing a differential geometry/exterior calculus treatment of momentum and a space+time splitting. Specifically, the full suite of geometric mechanics formulations (variational/Lagrangian, Lie-Poisson Hamiltonian and Curl-Form Hamiltonian) were developed in terms of exterior calculus using vector-bundle valued differential forms. This was done for a fairly general version of semi-direct product theory sufficient to cover a wide range of both neutral and charged fluid models, including compressible Euler, magnetohydrodynamics and Euler-Maxwell. As a secondary goal, this project also explored the connection between geometric mechanics formulations and the more traditional Godunov form (a hyperbolic system of conservation laws). Unfortunately, this stage did not produce anything particularly interesting, due to unforeseen technical difficulties. There are two publications related to this work currently in preparation, and this work will be presented at SIAM CSE 23, at which the PI is organizing a mini-symposium on geometric mechanics formulations and structure-preserving discretizations for fluids. The logical next step is to utilize the exterior calculus based understanding of momentum coupled with geometric mechanics formulations to develop (novel) structure-preserving discretizations of momentum. This is the main subject of a successful FY23 CIS LDRD "Structure-preserving discretizations for momentum-based formulations of fluids".

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Novel ceramic capacitors with ultrahigh energy density and efficiency (Final Technical Report)

Antiferroelectric ceramics are a special class of material that have shown great potential as the dielectric in electrical capacitors due to their high energy- and power-density. During each charge-discharge cycle, the ceramic undergoes transformation to a ferroelectric phase and resumes its antiferroelectric phase. The hysteresis associated with the transitions leads to a mediocre energy efficiency and service lifetime of antiferroelectric capacitors and, hence, their almost absence in commercial products. Under the support of this research project, we first formulated a universal lattice-compatibility theory that included electrostatic polarization energy along with elastic energy and thermal energy to understand the origin of the hysteresis in antiferroelectric oxides. Guided by this compatibility theory, we conducted high-throughput density functional theory (DFT) calculations to assess chemical modifiers and their effect on crystal structures of 400+ PbZrO 3 -based compositions. Down-selected compositions were experimentally validated for their suppressed hysteresis and higher energy efficiency. The verified low-hysteresis compositions were then expanded to an antiferroelectric ceramic library with nearly 500 new compositions (more than 1,500 samples) using high-throughput experiments involving ceramic synthesis and property screening. The large quantity of data generated (theory and experimental) in these tasks were processed by machine-learning techniques and identified trends were fed to the next iteration. In the end, we successfully discovered four compositions with near-zero hysteresis, yielding a world-record energy efficiency of 98.2% at an energy density of 3.0 J/cm 3 . Furthermore, our antiferroelectric ceramic capacitor reaches 79.5 million charge-discharge cycles lifetime, a factor of 80 enhancement over previous antiferroelectric ceramics with large hysteresis. These research accomplishments have not only met the milestones set in the SOPO, but also led to two patent filings, three journal publications (one of them was in Advanced Materials, impact factor 29.4), and nine oral presentations at various venues. Through the course of the project, three postdocs, four Ph.D. students, and one M.S. student were trained. In short, our project established a new methodology in searching next-generation functional ceramics on the fundamental side and discovered several high-efficiency antiferroelectric compositions for capacitors on the applied side. Once fabricated into the multilayer form for commercial applications, these ceramic capacitors can potentially enable the high temperature high power density DC-link capacitors that are critical for the next generation inverters in electric vehicles. The project also significantly contributed to the nation’s workforce development in the STEM fields.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗