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An avalanche photodiode has been operated as a photon-counting detector with 2 to 3 times the sensitivity of currently-available photomultiplier tubes. APD (avalanche photodiodes) detection probabilities that exceed 27% and approach 50% have been measured at an optimum operating temperature which minimizes noise. The sources of noise and their dependence on operating temperature and bias voltage are discussed.
Images obtained using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) systems can only represent the intensities of resolution cells in the scene of interest probabilistically since radar receiver noise and Rayleigh scattering of the transmitted radiation are always present. Consequently, when features to be identified differ only by their contribution to the mean power of the radar return, discrimination can be treated by detection theory. In this paper, we develop a 'sufficient statistic' for discriminating between competing features and compare it with some suboptimal methods frequently used. Discrimination is measured by probability of detection error and depends on number of samples or 'looks', signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and ratio of mean power returns from the competing features. Our results show discrimination and image quality rapidly saturate with SNR (very small improvement for SNR not less than 10 dB) but continue to improve with increasing number of looks.
Molecular ion C13H line found in zeta Oph at 4232.08 A, measuring equivalent width and finding C12/C13 ratio
It is suggested that the decrease in the solar radius inferred from solar eclipse observations made from 1715 to 1979 reflects a variation of the solar constant that may be of considerable climatic significance. A general, time-averaged relationship between changes in the solar constant and changes in the solar radius is derived based on a model of the contraction and expansion of the convective zone. A preliminary numerical calculation of radius changes due to changes in the mixing length of the solar envelope is presented which indicates that a decrease in solar radius of 0.5 arcsec, as observed in the last 264 years, would correspond to a decrease of 0.7% in the solar constant, a value of large climatic significance. Limitations of the observational method and the numerical approach are pointed out, and required additional theoretical and observational efforts are indicated.
The third solar neutron event detected by Earth-orbiting spacecraft was observed during STIP Interval XVI. The solar flare beginning at 2356 UT on 24 April l984 produced a variety of emissions including gamma rays and solar neutrons. The neutrons were observed by the SMM satellite and the neutron-decay protons were observed on the ISEE-3 spacecraft. Between 0000 and 0010 UT on 25 April an increase of 0.7 and 1.7 percent was recorded by neutron monitors at Tokyo (Itabashi) and Morioka, Japan. These stations were located about 42 degrees from the sub-solar point, and consequently, these is approximately 1400 grams of atmosphere between the incident neutrons at the top of the atmosphere and their detection on the Earth's surface. Nevertheless, the time coincidence of a small increase in the total counting rate of two independent neutron monitors indicates the presence of solar neutrons with energies greater than 400 MeV at the top of the Earth's atmosphere. The small increases in the counting rate emphasize the difficulty in identifying similar events using historical neutron monitor data.
X-ray emission from a sample of five nearby (6-20 pc), strongly magnetic (10-200 MG), relatively cool (6000-14,000 K), single white dwarfs, two of which may possess coronae was explored. One star (GR 290) at better than 99-percent confidence is detected and upper limits from Einstein Observatory IPC data for four others are given. The detected luminosities and limits are in the range 1.4-12.5 x 10 exp 27 ergs/s.
The NOAA 8 SARSAT system performance was tested at 121.5/243 MHz to measure detection probability, detection threshold, location accuracy, ambiguity resolution, and multiple access capacity. Detection probability exceeds 0.95 for a single satellite pass. Detection threshold margin varies from 2 dB (243 MHz, incoherent) to 20 dB (121.5, coherent). Position location error is 20 km 68% of the time. Ambiguity is resolved 75% of the time. The system can locate 10 separate test signals.
Probability of detection (POD) requirements for NASA fracture-critical human-rated systems can be met by (1) claiming ‘similarity’ to NASA Standard Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) flaw sizes or (2) by inspector-specific POD demonstration, known as NASA Special NDE. Standard NDE flaw sizes are intended to represent the detection capability of most qualified inspectors, and were primarily based on POD studies in the development of the Space Shuttle Program Orbiter fracture control plan. However, these Standard NDE flaw sizes were based on fatigue cracks in flat panels of one material alloy over a limited range of panel thicknesses. While the POD study was comprehensive, the inspection conditions are relatively narrow. An evaluation of similarity between the Standard NDE POD study and flight component conditions is required to apply Standard NDE to specific flight component inspections. A similarity evaluation may include differences in materials, surface finish, component geometry (e.g., curvature, corners, welds), and inspection access. Similarity is typically based on a qualitative engineering evaluation. Recently, NASA published a quantitative methodology to assess similarity. If similarity is not supported by test and analysis, then the methodology provides a transfer function of flaw size for Special NDE POD demonstration. NASA recommends that Special POD demonstrations use flaws that are flight-like or more difficult to detect than flight component flaws, which are commonly induced fatigue cracks. Often, it is not feasible to induce fatigue cracks in flight component geometry, and therefore, a simpler representative geometry is used, commonly a flat panel, for POD demonstration. Inducing cracks in simple geometry specimens can be time-consuming and expensive, and thus, minimizing the number of flawed specimens is desired. Traditionally, NASA Special NDE demonstration was limited to MIL-HDBK-1823A methods or the binomial point-estimate method (PEM), commonly known as 29/29. Recently, NASA published a limited-sample POD (LS-POD) methodology for signal-response NDE techniques (e.g., eddy current) that provides POD demonstration with fewer specimens than previous approaches. LS-POD suggests a minimum of 10 flawed specimens, compared to 29 in the PEM and the suggested minimum of 40 from MIL-HDBK-1823A. The methodology also includes new guidance on evaluating the probability of false calls. In this presentation, these new transfer function and LS-POD methodologies are described and illustrated through an eddy current detection capability of far-side flaws on thin welded panels. A geometry-based transfer function is developed using electro-discharge machined (EDM) notches in flight component and simple geometry to estimate the Special NDE flaw size that is representative of the critical initial flaw size required by the fracture analysis. Then, fatigue cracks are induced in simple flat panels of the transferred flaw size, and the LS-POD methodology is used for Special NDE demonstration.
Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.
This document provides guidance for assessing similarity relative to nondestructive evaluation (NDE) detectability based on Probability of Detection demonstrations when comparing different NDE inspection situations. Differences in inspection situations addressed by the similarity assessment methodology herein can include differences in the component being inspected, and differences in the conditions for the inspection. Additional differences in the inspection situation relative to differences in the method or procedure are not addressed in this document but can be assessed using NDE calibration or instrument standardization specimens.
Delamination is one of the critical defects in composite materials and structures. An ultrasonic C-scan imaging technique which maps out the acoustic impedance mismatched areas with respect to the sample coordinates, is particularly well suited for detecting and characterizing delaminations in composites. To properly interpret the results, it is necessary to correlate the indications with the detection limits and probability of detection (POD) of the ultrasonic C-scan imaging technique. The baseline information on the assessment of POD of delaminations in composite materials and structures is very beneficial to the evaluation of spacecraft materials. In this study, we review the principle of POD, describe the laboratory set-up and procedure, and present the experimental results as well as assessment of POD of delaminations in fiber reinforced composite panels using ultrasonic C-scan techniques.
The increased role played by probability of detection (POD) in structural integrity programs, combined with the significant time and cost associated with the purely empirical determination of POD, provides motivation for alternate means to estimate this important metric of NDE techniques. One approach to make the process of POD estimation more efficient is to complement limited empirical experiments with information from physics-based models of the inspection process or controlled laboratory experiments. The Model-Assisted Probability of Detection (MAPOD) Working Group was formed by the Air Force Research Laboratory, the FAA Technical Center, and NASA to explore these possibilities. Since the 2004 inception of the MAPOD Working Group, 11 meetings have been held in conjunction with major NDE conferences. This paper will review the accomplishments of this group, which includes over 90 members from around the world. Included will be a discussion of strategies developed to combine physics-based and empirical understanding, draft protocols that have been developed to guide application of the strategies, and demonstrations that have been or are being carried out in a number of countries. The talk will conclude with a discussion of future directions, which will include documentation of benefits via case studies, development of formal protocols for engineering practice, as well as a number of specific technical issues.
The space industry has developed many composite materials that have high durability in proportion to their weights. Many of these materials have a likelihood for flaws that is higher than in traditional metals. There are also coverings (such as paint) that develop flaws that may adversely affect the performance of the system in which they are used. Therefore there is a need to monitor the soundness of composite structures. To meet this monitoring need, many nondestructive evaluation (NDE) systems have been developed. An NDE system is designed to detect material flaws and make flaw measurements without destroying the inspected item. Also, the detection operation is expected to be performed in a rapid manner in a field or production environment. Some of the most recent video-based NDE methodologies are shearography, holography, thermography, and video image correlation.
Model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) uses data from simulations to improve a traditional probability of detection (POD) study. This could include extending the parameter space to reduce uncertainty or substituting experimental data with simulated data to reduce the time and cost of a POD study. In the past MAPOD was difficult due to limited computational resources, but recent innovations in simulation tools and high-performance computing have made this type of high-degree-of-freedom modeling possible, and complex structures have made it necessary. This presentation will summarize the work done by the computational nondestructive evaluation (CNDE) specialists within the Nondestructive Evaluation Sciences branch at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to complete a MAPOD study for phased array ultrasound testing (PAUT) of a friction stir welding (FSW) method to be used on Space Launch System (SLS) structures. The three critical needs for a MAPOD study are a validated and verified model of the inspection technique for the structure being inspected, some experimental POD data, and an uncertainty model for both the model and the experimental data. PAUT was simulated using Extende CIVA’s UT module. The model was validated using laboratory inspection data from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for a Hit/Miss POD for FSW in 2219-T87 aluminum panels representative of those used in the SLS. This model was then used to simulate flaw sizes that were originally omitted from the original POD study. The results of this new MAPOD study will be presented along with a discussion of the methods and processes used to analyze the original data, selected simulation parameters, and development of the uncertainty model used for the statistical analysis. The goal of this effort is not just to improve the POD study but to demonstrate the value of MAPOD and provide a roadmap for application of MAPOD on future projects.
Model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) uses data from simulations to improve a traditional probability of detection (POD) study. This could include extending the parameter space to reduce uncertainty or substituting experimental data with simulated data to reduce the time and cost of a POD study. In the past MAPOD was difficult due to limited computational resources, but recent innovations in simulation tools and high-performance computing have made this type of high-degree-of-freedom modelling possible, and complex structures have made it necessary. This presentation will summarize the work done by the computational nondestructive evaluation (CNDE) group at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to complete a MAPOD study for phased array ultrasound testing (PAUT) of a friction stir welding (FSW) method to be used on Space Launch System (SLS) structures. The three critical needs for a MAPOD study are a validated and verified model of the inspection technique for the structure being inspected, some experimental POD data, and an uncertainty model for both the model and the experimental data. PAUT was simulated using Extende CIVA’s UT module. The model was validated using laboratory inspection data from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for a Hit/Miss POD for FSW in 2219-T87 aluminum panels representative of those used in the SLS. This model was then used to simulate flaw sizes that were originally omitted from the original POD study. The results of this new MAPOD study will be presented along with a discussion of the methods and processes used to analyze the original data, selected simulation parameters, and development of the uncertainty model used for the statistical analysis. The goal of this effort is not just to improve the POD study but to demonstrate the value of MAPOD and provide a roadmap for application of MAPOD on future projects.
Probability density distributions for monaural detection of tonal signal in continuous background of Gaussian noise as modified noncentral chi distribution
Directed Design of Experiments for Validating Probability of Detection Capability of NDE Systems (DOEPOD) Manual v.1.2 The capability of an inspection system is established by applications of various methodologies to determine the probability of detection (POD). One accepted metric of an adequate inspection system is that there is 95% confidence that the POD is greater than 90% (90/95 POD). Design of experiments for validating probability of detection capability of nondestructive evaluation (NDE) systems (DOEPOD) is a methodology that is implemented via software to serve as a diagnostic tool providing detailed analysis of POD test data, guidance on establishing data distribution requirements, and resolving test issues. DOEPOD demands utilization of observance of occurrences. The DOEPOD capability has been developed to provide an efficient and accurate methodology that yields observed POD and confidence bounds for both Hit-Miss or signal amplitude testing. DOEPOD does not assume prescribed POD logarithmic or similar functions with assumed adequacy over a wide range of flaw sizes and inspection system technologies, so that multi-parameter curve fitting or model optimization approaches to generate a POD curve are not required. DOEPOD applications for supporting inspector qualifications is included.
The proposed research to determine the probability of detecting extra solar planets from the ground with microlensing was completely accomplished during the grant period. A summary of the publications and their abstracts follow below. The publications include: 1) On microlensing rates and optical depth toward the Galactic center; 2) Newly discovered brown dwarfs not seen in microlensing timescale frequency distribution? 3) Probability of detecting a planetary companion during a microlensing event; 4) Comparison of a ground-based microlensing search for planets with a search from space; 5) Secular evolution of hierarchical planetary systems.