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At least 19 records

Technical and economic evaluation of advanced air cargo system concepts

The paper reviews NASA air cargo market studies, reports on NASA and NASA-sponsored studies of advanced freighter concepts, and identifies the opportunities for the application of advanced technology. The air cargo market is studied to evaluate the timing for, and the potential market response to, advanced technology aircraft. The degree of elasticity in future air freight markets is also being investigated, since the demand for a new aircraft is most favorable in a price-sensitive environment. Aircraft design studies are considered with attention to mission and design requirements, incorporation of advanced technologies in transport aircraft, new cargo aircraft concepts, advanced freighter evaluation, and civil-military design commonality.

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.

Discrete Wavelength-Locked External Cavity Laser

A prototype improved external cavity laser (ECL) was demonstrated in the second phase of a continuing effort to develop wavelength-agile lasers for fiber-optic communications and trace-gas-sensing applications. This laser is designed to offer next-generation performance for incorporation into fiber-optic networks. By eliminating several optical components and simplifying others used in prior designs, the design of this laser reduces costs, making lasers of this type very competitive in a price-sensitive market. Diode lasers have become enabling devices for fiber optic networks because of their cost, compactness, and spectral properties. ECLs built around diode laser gain elements further enhance capabilities by virtue of their excellent spectral properties with significantly increased (relative to prior lasers) wavelength tuning ranges. It is essential to exploit the increased spectral coverage of ECLs while simultaneously insuring that they operate only at precisely defined communication channels (wavelengths). Heretofore, this requirement has typically been satisfied through incorporation of add-in optical components that lock the ECL output wavelengths to these specific channels. Such add-in components contribute substantially to the costs of ECL lasers to be used as sources for optical communication networks. Furthermore, the optical alignment of these components, needed to attain the required wavelength precision, is a non-trivial task and can contribute substantially to production costs. The design of the present improved ECL differs significantly from the designs of prior ECLs. The present design relies on inherent features of components already included within an ECL, with slight modifications so that these components perform their normal functions while simultaneously effecting locking to the required discrete wavelengths. Hence, add-in optical components and the associated cost of alignment can be eliminated. The figure shows the locking feedback signal, and the frequency locking achieved by use of this signal, as a mirror is tilted through a range of angles to tune the ECL through 48 channels. The data for the frequency plot were obtained, simultaneously with the data for the locking-signal plot, by using a scanning Michelson interferometer to precisely determine the ECL wavelength (and, hence, frequency). Given the ability of the Michelson interferometer to obtain highly precise readings, the frequency plot can be taken to be a reliable indication of single-mode operation. The discontinuities in the frequency plot signify the switching of the ECL between channels; in other words, they indicate tuning with locking to discrete frequencies. The peaks of the feedbacklocking signal correspond to the centers, or near centers, of the mirror angle scan through the corresponding channels. Thus, it is clear that when the feedback-locking signal is at a local maximum, the ECL is operating at single frequency at or near the middle frequency of the selected channel. This is all that is required for precisely locking the ECL output wavelength. The locking is achieved without additional external optical components.

Pilgrim, Jeffrey S.

Sensitivity analysis of add-on price estimate for select silicon wafering technologies

The cost of producing wafers from silicon ingots is a major component of the add-on price of silicon sheet. Economic analyses of the add-on price estimates and their sensitivity internal-diameter (ID) sawing, multiblade slurry (MBS) sawing and fixed-abrasive slicing technique (FAST) are presented. Interim price estimation guidelines (IPEG) are used for estimating a process add-on price. Sensitivity analysis of price is performed with respect to cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials (blade life) and utilities, and the production parameters such as slicing rate, slices per centimeter and process yield, using a computer program specifically developed to do sensitivity analysis with IPEG. The results aid in identifying the important cost parameters and assist in deciding the direction of technology development efforts.

Mokashi, A. R.

Assessment of industrial applications for fuel cell cogeneration systems

The fuel cell energy systems are designed with and without a utility connection for emergency back-up power. Sale of electricity to the utility during periods of low plant demand is not considered. For each of the three industrial applications, conceptual designs were also developed for conventional utility systems relying on purchased electric power and fossil-fired boilers for steam/hot water. The capital investment for each energy system is estimated. Annual operating costs are also determined for each system. These cost estimates are converted to levelized annual costs by applying appropriate economic factors. The breakeven electricity price that would make fuel cell systems competitive with the conventional systems is plotted as a function of naphtha price. The sensitivity of the breakeven point to capital investment and coal price is also evaluated.

Stickles, R. P.

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Hendricks, Robert C.

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Hendricks, Robert C.

Sensitivity analysis of the add-on price estimate for the silicon web growth process

The web growth process, a silicon-sheet technology option, developed for the flat plate solar array (FSA) project, was examined. Base case data for the technical and cost parameters for the technical and commercial readiness phase of the FSA project are projected. The process add on price, using the base case data for cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials and utilities, and the production parameters such as growth rate and run length, using a computer program developed specifically to do the sensitivity analysis with improved price estimation are analyzed. Silicon price, sheet thickness and cell efficiency are also discussed.

Mokashi, A. R.

Longwave spectral dependence of emission from warm dust clouds

Observations of the continuum emission from warm dust clouds at 230 GHz, or 1300 microns, enables the determination of the frequency dependence of the optically thin longwave emission. Integrating the emission over the solid angle of the clouds gives a flux independent of the beam size and of the internal temperature structure of the clouds. The frequency resolving power of 64 allows the correction of these fluxes for the contribution of free-free emission from nearby H II regions at a price of reduced sensitivity. These observations were combined with similar observations made by others in the submillimeter and far infrared regimes to determine the continuum spectra of the dust clouds. Mean characteristics were determined for these clouds, fitting the spectra with simple transfer equations. Results are briefly discussed.

Gordon, M. A.

Metroplex Optimization Model Expansion and Analysis: The Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM)

This report describes the Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM) that is designed to provide insights into airline decision-making with regards to markets served, schedule of flights on these markets, the type of aircraft assigned to each scheduled flight, load factors, airfares, and airline profits. The main inputs to the model are hedged fuel prices, airport capacity limits, and candidate markets. Embedded in the model are aircraft performance and associated cost factors, and willingness-to-pay (i.e. demand vs. airfare curves). Case studies demonstrate the application of the model for analysis of the effects of increased capacity and changes in operating costs (e.g. fuel prices). Although there are differences between airports (due to differences in the magnitude of travel demand and sensitivity to airfare), the system is more sensitive to changes in fuel prices than capacity. Further, the benefits of modernization in the form of increased capacity could be undermined by increases in hedged fuel prices

Sherry, Lance

An analysis of short haul air passenger demand, volume 2

Several demand models for short haul air travel are proposed and calibrated on pooled data. The models are designed to predict demand and analyze some of the motivating phenomena behind demand generation. In particular, an attempt is made to include the effects of competing modes and of alternate destinations. The results support three conclusions: (1) the auto mode is the air mode's major competitor; (2) trip time is an overriding factor in intermodal competition, with air fare at its present level appearing unimportant to the typical short haul air traveler; and (3) distance appears to underly several demand generating phenomena, and therefore, must be considered very carefully to any intercity demand model. It may be the cause of the wide range of fare elasticities reported by researchers over the past 15 years. A behavioral demand model is proposed and calibrated. It combines the travel generating effects of income and population, the effects of modal split, the sensitivity of travel to price and time, and the effect of alternative destinations satisfying the trip purpose.

Blumer, T. P.

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields

Comparison of Integrated Gasifier-Combined Cycle and AFB-steam turbine systems for industrial cogeneration

In the cogeneration technology alternatives study (CTAS) a number of advanced coal fired systems were examined and systems using a integrated coal gasifier IGCC or a fluid bed combustor AFB were found to yield attractive cogeneration results in industrial cogeneration applications. A range of site requirements and cogeneration sizing strategies using ground rules based on CTAS were used in comparing an IGCC and an AFB. The effect of time variations in site requirements and the sensitivity to fuel and electricity price assumptions are examined. The economic alternatives of industrial or utility ownership are also considered. The results indicate that the IGCC system has potentially higher fuel and emission savings and could be an attractive option for utility ownership. The AFB steam turbine system has a potentially higher return on investment and could be attractive assuming industrial ownership.

Nainiger, J. J.

SPS market analysis

A market analysis task included personal interviews by GE personnel and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective small solar thermal power systems (SPS) users. Over 500 firms were contacted, including three ownership classes of electric utilities, industrial firms in the top SIC codes for energy consumption, and design engineering firms. A market demand model was developed which utilizes the data base developed by personal interviews and surveys, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential markets for SPS.

Goff, H. C.

Effects off system factors on the economics of and demand for small solar thermal power systems

Market penetration as a function time, SPS performance factors, and market/economic considerations was estimated, and commercialization strategies were formulated. A market analysis task included personal interviews and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective SPS users. Interviews encompassed three ownership classes of electric utilities and industrial firms in the SIC codes for energy consumption. A market demand model was developed which utilized the data base developed, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential market for SPS.

Source record

Analysis for the application of hybrid laminar flow control to a long-range subsonic transport aircraft

The FLOPS aircraft conceptual design/analysis code has been used to evaluate the effects of incorporating hybrid laminar flow control (HLFC) in a 300-passenger, 6500 n. mi. range, twin-engine subsonic transport aircraft. The baseline configuration was sized to account for 50 percent chord laminar flow on the wing upper surface as well as both surfaces of the empennage airfoils. Attention is given to the additional benefits of achieving various degrees of laminar flow on the engine nacelles, and the horsepower extraction and initial weight and cost increments entailed by the HLFC system. The sensitivity of the results obtained to fuel-price and off-design range are also noted.

Arcara, P. C., Jr.

Microstructural Influence on Deformation and Fatigue Life of Composites Using the Generalized Method of Cells

A fully coupled deformation and damage approach to modeling the response of composite materials and composite laminates is presented. It is based on the semi-­‐analytical generalized method of cells (GMC) micromechanics model as well as its higher fidelity counterpart, HFGMC, both of which provide closed-form constitutive equations for composite materials as well as the micro scale stress and strain fields in the composite phases. The provided constitutive equations allow GMC and HFGMC to function within a higher scale structural analysis (e.g., finite element analysis or lamination theory) to represent a composite material point, while the availability of the micro fields allow the incorporation of lower scale sub­‐models to represent local phenomena in the fiber and matrix. Further, GMC's formulation performs averaging when applying certain governing equations such that some degree of microscale field accuracy is surrendered in favor of extreme computational efficiency, rendering the method quite attractive as the centerpiece in a integrated computational material engineering (ICME) structural analysis; whereas HFGMC retains this microscale field accuracy, but at the price of significantly slower computational speed. Herein, the sensitivity of deformation and the fatigue life of graphite/epoxy PMC composites, with both ordered and disordered microstructures, has been investigated using this coupled deformation and damage micromechanics based approach. The local effects of fiber breakage and fatigue damage are included as sub‐models that operate on the microscale for the individual composite phases. For analysis of laminates, classical lamination theory is employed as the global or structural scale model, while GMC/HFGMC is embedded to operate on the microscale to simulate the behavior of the composite material within each laminate layer. A key outcome of this study is the statistical influence of microstructure and micromechanics idealization (GMC or HFGMC) on the overall accuracy of unidirectional and laminated composite deformation and fatigue response.

Microscale Models

Energy and cost savings results for advanced technology systems from the Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study /CTAS/

The Cogeneration Technology Alternatives Study (CTAS), a program undertaken to identify the most attractive advanced energy conversion systems for industrial cogeneration applications in the 1985-2000 time period, is described, and preliminary results are presented. Two cogeneration options are included in the analysis: a topping application, in which fuel is input to the energy conversion system which generates electricity and waste heat from the conversion system is used to provide heat to the process, and a bottoming application, in which fuel is burned to provide high temperature process heat and waste heat from the process is used as thermal input to the energy conversion system which generates energy. Steam turbines, open and closed cycle gas turbines, combined cycles, diesel engines, Stirling engines, phosphoric acid and molten carbonate fuel cells and thermionics are examined. Expected plant level energy savings, annual energy cost savings, and other results of the economic analysis are given, and the sensitivity of these results to the assumptions concerning fuel prices, price of purchased electricity and the potential effects of regional energy use characteristics is discussed.

Sagerman, G. D.