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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Bid-in Price-Sensitive Load: A Comparison with Fixed Load in a Realistic Test System

Bulk power systems operations, in both simulation and practice, are often built on the principle of minimizing production costs, which assumes to first order that demand is fixed and that the only degrees of freedom for balancing generation and load are supply-side unit commitment and dispatch decisions. The purpose of this report is to interrogate the value of welfare-maximizing markets that not only physically balance demand and supply but also ensure that market outcomes provide consumer value by directly maximizing welfare, defined as the value of consumption minus production costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Industrial Demand: Large, Elastic, and Concentrated [Guest Editorial]

Here, the future industrial demand on the grid is expected to be large, price sensitive, and concentrated. Grid industrial demand increasingly encompasses a new customer type defined as a large flexible load (LFL). This LFL type defines customers with consumption that responds quickly to price or other incentives without interrupting their core business process, such cryptocurrency mining. This customer type can often ramp up and down quickly, which across an entire industry can mean gigawatts of power within a few minutes. In addition to these price-sensitive loads, significant growth is also anticipated in sectors like manufacturing, data centers, and electrification of transportation and buildings.

Mukherjee, Srijib [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Analysis of Reversible and Paired Solid Oxide Cell Systems for Hydrogen Production

This is the Journal of the Electrochemical Society manuscript that details an NETL analysis on comparing the performance and cost of reversible solid oxide cell (SOC) units versus paired fuel cell (SOFC) and electrolysis cell (SOEC) units. The analysis compares tradeoffs such as capital costs versus rate of performance degradation, sensitivity to natural gas prices, sensitivity to imported power costs, and other relevant analyses. The systems include a high rate (98%) of carbon capture. The analysis shows that given a certain cost of electricity input, either approach could be viable in the market and points to the need to incorporate into a full system to understand impacts.

Noring, Alex↗

DOE OSTI2020

Techno-Economic Analysis for GTI's Compact Hydrogen Generator

A technoeconomic analysis of the compact hydrogen generator compared to a traditional steam methane reformer (SMR) was performed for both processes with and without carbon capture. The project goal for the technoeconomic analysis was to demonstrate a minimum of 20% lower CAPEX and 15% lower levelized cost of hydrogen compared to SMR with and without carbon capture. GTI obtained baseline capital and costs for the SMR with and without and methodology to calculate the levelized cost of hydrogen from an IEAGHG Technical Report: 2017-02 Techno-Economic Evaluation of SMR Based Standalone (Merchant) Hydrogen Plant with CCS. This methodology was then applied to GTI’s compact hydrogen generator using direct material costs previously obtained from a reputable engineering procurement and construction company, CB&I Howe-Baker. The analysis was performed for plants producing 90MMSCFD (million standard cubic feed per day) of hydrogen. Direct material costs were converted to total installed costs and total capital requirements using the same multiplying factors for both processes. We have found that the direct materials cost of the compact hydrogen generator is less than half the direct materials cost required for SMR without capture, and about one quarter the direct materials cost of SMR with carbon capture. This low materials cost translates into a significant CAPEX savings and lower levelized cost of hydrogen that exceed the goals of the techno-economic assessment. We have found that the CHG has a 43% lower installed cost and capital requirement compared to SMR without capture, that results in a levelized cost of hydrogen that is 19% lower than SMR. When 90% CO2 capture is added to the plants, the advantages is even better. The CHG has a 51% lower installed and capital requirement compared to SMR with capture, resulting in a 28% lower levelized cost of hydrogen. A sensitivity analysis was performed and showed natural gas feedstock cost and discount rate to be the main contributors to hydrogen price sensitivity. Given these significant cost advantages, GTI is encouraged to continue to develop the technology and market the economic advantages as well as the efficiency gains and ability to inherently capture CO2.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

How does drought affect residential water demand and price elasticity?

Urban water scarcity is an important social and economic concern, particularly as the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts is increasing in many regions. We consider whether drought induces changes to water demand and the price elasticity of demand for water that may last beyond a drought’s official end date. If drought shocks prompt long-term changes in water demand behavior, and these changes occur at broad geographic scale, they could have important implications for modeling adaptive responses to water scarcity. We assemble a novel dataset on residential water demand and pricing in the western United States to test empirically for effects of drought on water demand and price elasticity. We perform our analysis with aggregate quantity, price, and drought data, accounting for endogenous prices under increasing-block water tariffs and using both average and marginal water fees in estimating water demand functions. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that households may become less price-sensitive after exposure to drought. However, we find no systematic evidence of long-run, drought-related reductions in water demand, itself.

demand hardening↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cooling Egypt: Cost and benefits of room air conditioner efficiency improvement in Egypt

Egypt is one of the largest countries in the Middle East and North Africa region with a population of a total of 106 million (as of July 2022). Increasing urbanization, population growth, and increasing temperatures will likely continue to drive demand for electricity from air conditioning, with corresponding negative impacts on the peak load, air quality, and greenhouse gas emissions from refrigerant use and energy consumption. Since 2003, Egypt has adopted a standards and labeling program for various appliances, and has improved its room air conditioner (RAC) energy efficiency requirements in 2016 and 2017. However, its market is still dominated by inefficient fixed-speed drive (FSD) RACs due to a price-sensitive market. Seasonal metrics such as Cooling Season Performance Factor (CSPF) measure the energy efficiency of FSD and variable-speed drive (VSD) RACs on the same scale. Leading markets, most notably China, have already adopted a new MEPS in 2020 and 2022, which align largely with the United for Efficiency (U4E) Model Regulations Guidelines. India has also adopted a CSPF metric. Both India and China are now experiencing (1) increased demand and consumption of higher efficiency VSD RACs, as well as (2) a corresponding drop in prices from the economies of scale of production of these higher efficiency RACs. Because China is a leading manufacturer in the global air conditioner (AC) market, its adoption of the model U4E regulations have effectively raised the energy efficiency of the ACs in the global market. To achieve the benefits of taking a similar approach to Egypt’s market, we offer the following recommendations: 1. Adopt a common metric to measure the efficiency of both FSD and VSD RACs 2. Raise the stringency of MEPS to the level of the U4E Model Regulation Guidelines 3. Restructure the labeling program from the “A++” labeling scheme to a simpler A through E or a star-rating program 4. Strengthen the compliance regime governing the Egyptian AC MEPS 5. Assist small and medium AC manufacturers in Egypt to transition manufacturing lines to produce low-cost, high-efficiency VSD RACs. Adopting these recommendations would reduce Egypt’s electricity consumption to 11 TWh in 2030 and 89 TWh in 2050—with corresponding carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions and avoided generation capacity requirements compared to the baseline.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

The value of in-reservoir energy storage for flexible dispatch of geothermal power

Geothermal systems making use of advanced drilling and well stimulation techniques have the potential to provide tens to hundreds of gigawatts of clean electricity generation in the United States by 2050. With near-zero variable costs, geothermal plants have traditionally been envisioned as providing “baseload” power, generating at their maximum rated output at all times. However, as variable renewable energy sources (VREs) see greater deployment in energy markets, baseload power is becoming increasingly less competitive relative to flexible, dispatchable generation and energy storage. Herein we conduct an analysis of the potential for future geothermal plants to provide both of these services, taking advantage of the natural properties of confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs to store energy in the form of accumulated, pressurized geofluid and provide flexible load-following generation. We develop a linear optimization model based on multi-physics reservoir simulations that captures the transient pressure and flow behaviors within a confined, engineered geothermal reservoir. We then optimize the investment decisions and hourly operations of a power plant exploiting such a reservoir against a set of historical and modeled future electricity price series. Further, we find that operational flexibility and in-reservoir energy storage can significantly enhance the value of geothermal plants in markets with high VRE penetration, with energy value improvements of up to 60% relative to conventional baseload plants operating under identical conditions. Across a range of realistic subsurface and operational conditions, our modeling demonstrates that confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs can provide large and effectively free energy storage capacity, with round-trip storage efficiencies comparable to those of leading grid-scale energy storage technologies. Optimized operational strategies indicate that flexible geothermal plants can provide both short- and long-duration energy storage, prioritizing output during periods of high electricity prices. Sensitivity analysis assesses the variation in outcomes across a range of subsurface conditions and cost scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

ames-market/psst

Python version of the AMES Wholesale Power Market Test Bed; no GUI. Previously hosted by Iowa State University; PNNL has assumed hosting. AMES existed in a non-version controlled and inconsistent form. PNNL added price-sensitive loads for transactive systems, with various other bug fixes and features.

McDermott, Tom↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microchannel Reactor for Ethanol to Butene: CRADA 503 [Abstract only]

A key challenge facing most bioprocessing operations is that multiple unit operations are required, thereby resulting in complex, energy-intensive, and expensive processes. Further, biomass transportation costs drive the need for smaller, distributed processing plants. To incorporate the smaller scales desirable for biomass, novel processes must be developed with reduced capital costs. With over 20 years of experience in the development and commercialization of microchannel reactor technology, Oregon State University will partner with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to demonstrate a microchannel reactor with lower capital costs for an alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) process technology that is currently being commercialized by LanzaTech. Ethanol can be produced from biomass feedstocks such as LanzaTech’s proprietary biochemical process using carbon from a number of possible feedstocks; syngas generated from biomass resources (e.g., MSW, organic industrial waste, agriculture waste) or reformed biogas, or from other biomass feedstocks such as corn kernel fiber. Ethanol then undergoes catalytic dehydration to form ethylene followed by a two-step oligomerization, hydrogenation, and fractionation to control the hydrocarbon product slate to the jet-range. Successful process development aided by a market pull for low carbon aviation fuel has spurred scale-up and commercial demonstration. However, Sustainable Aviation Fuel is a very price sensitive market and improved economics through process intensification will make the current ATJ process even more attractive. Recent efforts at PNNL have culminated in the development of a new catalyst technology for the conversion of ethanol to n-butene-rich olefins. A greater than 90% conversion, total olefin selectivity of 80-90% (n-butene selectivity ~60%), and good stability over a 100 hour test duration has been demonstrated at the bench scale. Producing butene-rich olefins directly from ethanol with high yield is new and impactful because the higher olefins can be selectively oligomerized to distillate-range hydrocarbons, thus eliminating one process step from the current ATJ process. Further, coupling the severely endothermic ethanol dehydration with exothermic C-C bond formation results in more energy efficient processing. Additional intensification and energy savings will stem from incorporating this new ethanol to n-butene catalyst technology within the ATJ process implemented using a microchannel reactor platform. Due to recent advances in microchannel manufacturing methods and associated cost reductions we believe the time is right to adapt this technology toward new commercial bioconversion applications.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model Formulations: Integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DER) using Advanced Unit Commitment Models and DER Aggregation Methodologies

A distribution energy resource aggregator (DERA) constitutes a group of distribution energy resources with small generation capacities which meet the threshold to participate in the electricity wholesale market. This document provides the proposed DERA model formulation that will be implemented in the SCUC simulation’s architecture for the SCUC-DER project. Different economical assessment methodologies have been developed to incorporated bids for individual distributed resources, which include solar cost dispatch and cost model, BESS opportunity cost offer algorithm, and price sensitive demand response model. Detailed methods are proposed to aggregate individual cost offers to a DERA cost curve to bid in SCUC market while three methods are proposed to simulate DER actual dispatch. Based on the DERA models in this document, the SCUC-DER project will be able to assess the impacts of DERA on the distribution system’s operation and reliability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scalable, Infiltration-Free Ceramic Matrix Composite Manufacturing

Manufacturing of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) with carbon fiber and carbon matrix includes a time- and labor-intensive ceramic infiltration step that is responsible for more than half of the total manufacturing cost. To make CMCs cost-competitive in price-sensitive markets, like concentrated solar power, it is essential to develop a CMC manufacturing process that skips the ceramic infiltration process. In this work, we will show how a high-char-yield preceramic resin can eliminate the infiltration step while maintaining material density and evaluate the technoeconomic impact of our CMC manufacturing process. We monitor both morphology and porosity to determine the quality of CMCs made with different preceramic resins and evaluate the impact of polymer infiltration and pyrolyzing cycles.

matrix composite, polymer infiltration and pyrolys↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simplified, Infiltration-free Ceramic Matrix Composite Manufacturing

Manufacturing of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) with carbon fiber and carbon matrix includes a time- and labor-intensive ceramic infiltration step that is responsible for more than half of the total manufacturing cost. To make CMCs cost-competitive in price-sensitive markets, like concentrated solar power, it is essential to develop a CMC manufacturing process that skips the ceramic infiltration process. In this work, we will show how a high-char-yield preceramic resin can eliminate the infiltration step while maintaining material density and evaluate the technoeconomic impact of our CMC manufacturing process. Here, we monitor both morphology and porosity to determine the quality of CMCs made with different preceramic resins and evaluate the impact of polymer infiltration and pyrolyzing cycles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1977

Technical and economic evaluation of advanced air cargo system concepts

The paper reviews NASA air cargo market studies, reports on NASA and NASA-sponsored studies of advanced freighter concepts, and identifies the opportunities for the application of advanced technology. The air cargo market is studied to evaluate the timing for, and the potential market response to, advanced technology aircraft. The degree of elasticity in future air freight markets is also being investigated, since the demand for a new aircraft is most favorable in a price-sensitive environment. Aircraft design studies are considered with attention to mission and design requirements, incorporation of advanced technologies in transport aircraft, new cargo aircraft concepts, advanced freighter evaluation, and civil-military design commonality.

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Discrete Wavelength-Locked External Cavity Laser

A prototype improved external cavity laser (ECL) was demonstrated in the second phase of a continuing effort to develop wavelength-agile lasers for fiber-optic communications and trace-gas-sensing applications. This laser is designed to offer next-generation performance for incorporation into fiber-optic networks. By eliminating several optical components and simplifying others used in prior designs, the design of this laser reduces costs, making lasers of this type very competitive in a price-sensitive market. Diode lasers have become enabling devices for fiber optic networks because of their cost, compactness, and spectral properties. ECLs built around diode laser gain elements further enhance capabilities by virtue of their excellent spectral properties with significantly increased (relative to prior lasers) wavelength tuning ranges. It is essential to exploit the increased spectral coverage of ECLs while simultaneously insuring that they operate only at precisely defined communication channels (wavelengths). Heretofore, this requirement has typically been satisfied through incorporation of add-in optical components that lock the ECL output wavelengths to these specific channels. Such add-in components contribute substantially to the costs of ECL lasers to be used as sources for optical communication networks. Furthermore, the optical alignment of these components, needed to attain the required wavelength precision, is a non-trivial task and can contribute substantially to production costs. The design of the present improved ECL differs significantly from the designs of prior ECLs. The present design relies on inherent features of components already included within an ECL, with slight modifications so that these components perform their normal functions while simultaneously effecting locking to the required discrete wavelengths. Hence, add-in optical components and the associated cost of alignment can be eliminated. The figure shows the locking feedback signal, and the frequency locking achieved by use of this signal, as a mirror is tilted through a range of angles to tune the ECL through 48 channels. The data for the frequency plot were obtained, simultaneously with the data for the locking-signal plot, by using a scanning Michelson interferometer to precisely determine the ECL wavelength (and, hence, frequency). Given the ability of the Michelson interferometer to obtain highly precise readings, the frequency plot can be taken to be a reliable indication of single-mode operation. The discontinuities in the frequency plot signify the switching of the ECL between channels; in other words, they indicate tuning with locking to discrete frequencies. The peaks of the feedbacklocking signal correspond to the centers, or near centers, of the mirror angle scan through the corresponding channels. Thus, it is clear that when the feedback-locking signal is at a local maximum, the ECL is operating at single frequency at or near the middle frequency of the selected channel. This is all that is required for precisely locking the ECL output wavelength. The locking is achieved without additional external optical components.

Pilgrim, Jeffrey S.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies: Preprint

The advantage of using Technology Performance Level (TPL) in conjunction with Technology Readiness Level (TRL) assessments in guiding technology development trajectories to successful outcomes in less time, at less overall cost, and with less encountered risk has been well articulated in the literature. In partnership with industry and international collaborators, a TPL assessment methodology for grid-connected applications has been developed through the application of the systems engineering approach. Metrics under seven different categories have been developed, weighted based on their relative relevance, and combined to yield a composite score. The methodology has been implemented in a spreadsheet tool plus a web application specifically aimed at assessing early stage (TRL 1-3) concepts. The target use cases are (a) technology developers improving their design, to find fatal flaws early, to get feedback on current design, to identify areas of improvement that will yield the highest return on investment, (b) reviewers assessing technologies in competitions or for making funding decisions, (c) investor or project developer doing due diligence, (d) policy makers landscaping the technology domain for formulating R&D strategy. The methodology and the tools are undergoing continuous improvement based on the experience and lessons learnt from applying it to internal and external marine energy technology development projects. The methodology is also being adapted for assessing WECs servicing markets outside the continental grid - broadly categorized as Powering the Blue Economy (PBE) applications. Such applications have vastly different functional requirements entailing a modification of the methodology to account for their higher risk tolerance, reduced price sensitivities, lower power needs, different permitting protocols, etc. This paper presents the latest status of the TPL assessment methodology and tools, describes its adaptation to select PBE markets, and explores its extension to other domains where it could provide a comprehensive and holistic measure of a nascent or disruptive technology's technoeconomic performance potential.

metrics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Developing Technology Performance Level Assessments for Early-Stage Wave Energy Converter Technologies

metrics↗

DOE OSTI2022

High Volume Production of Nanoscale Elements

The utility of nanoscale elements spans numerous potential markets including healthcare, communications, energy, optics, and structures. The energy market in particular will require large volumes and is price sensitive. In this talk we will discuss strategies to scale nanoscale elements, including nanoparticle inks and nanoscale thin films, for the large area deposition (hundreds of square meters) using high through put processes. Historically, roll-to-roll production of thin films has been carried out at very high speeds over large areas using solution phase inks. Nanoparticles are produced in a bottom-up approach in solution phase that simplifies the processing and is amenable to ink formulations. Sintering and annealing of the thin films can be increased by using radiation thermal processing that integrates easily into roll-to-roll manufacturing. Results of printed films on the order of tens of nanometers to hundreds of nanometers are presented including studies of morphologies and uniformity over large areas. Solar cells devices using the roll-to-roll setup are demonstrated and a techno-economic analysis of the manufacturing is proposed. These results are presented with a comparison to the current photovoltaic technologies in production.

Druffel, Thad↗

NASA NTRS1982

Sensitivity analysis of add-on price estimate for select silicon wafering technologies

The cost of producing wafers from silicon ingots is a major component of the add-on price of silicon sheet. Economic analyses of the add-on price estimates and their sensitivity internal-diameter (ID) sawing, multiblade slurry (MBS) sawing and fixed-abrasive slicing technique (FAST) are presented. Interim price estimation guidelines (IPEG) are used for estimating a process add-on price. Sensitivity analysis of price is performed with respect to cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials (blade life) and utilities, and the production parameters such as slicing rate, slices per centimeter and process yield, using a computer program specifically developed to do sensitivity analysis with IPEG. The results aid in identifying the important cost parameters and assist in deciding the direction of technology development efforts.

Mokashi, A. R.↗