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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A new data-driven map predicts substantial undocumented peatland areas in Amazonia

Tropical peatlands are among the most carbon-dense terrestrial ecosystems yet recorded. Collectively, they comprise a large but highly uncertain reservoir of the global carbon cycle, with wide-ranging estimates of their global area (441 025–1700 000 km 2 ) and below-ground carbon storage (105–288 Pg C). Substantial gaps remain in our understanding of peatland distribution in some key regions, including most of tropical South America. Here we compile 2413 ground reference points in and around Amazonian peatlands and use them alongside a stack of remote sensing products in a random forest model to generate the first field-data-driven model of peatland distribution across the Amazon basin. Our model predicts a total Amazonian peatland extent of 251 015 km 2 (95th percentile confidence interval: 128 671–373 359), greater than that of the Congo basin, but around 30% smaller than a recent model-derived estimate of peatland area across Amazonia. The model performs relatively well against point observations but spatial gaps in the ground reference dataset mean that model uncertainty remains high, particularly in parts of Brazil and Bolivia. For example, we predict significant peatland areas in northern Peru with relatively high confidence, while peatland areas in the Rio Negro basin and adjacent south-western Orinoco basin which have previously been predicted to hold Campinarana or white sand forests, are predicted with greater uncertainty. Similarly, we predict large areas of peatlands in Bolivia, surprisingly given the strong climatic seasonality found over most of the country. Very little field data exists with which to quantitatively assess the accuracy of our map in these regions. Data gaps such as these should be a high priority for new field sampling. This new map can facilitate future research into the vulnerability of peatlands to climate change and anthropogenic impacts, which is likely to vary spatially across the Amazon basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Size Mapping: Prediction of Metastable Polymorph Synthesizability Across TaC–TaN Alloys

The sizes of the basins of attraction on the potential energy surface are helpful indicators in determining the experimental synthesizability of metastable phases. In principle, these basins can be controlled with changes in thermodynamic conditions such as composition, pressure, and surface energy. Herein, we use random structure sampling to computationally study how alloying smoothly perturbs basin of attraction sizes. The TaC 1-x N x pseudobinary is an ideal test system given the structural and polymorphic contrast of its parent compounds and their technological relevance as epitaxial substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. While we find limited thermodynamic stability across all computationally observed phases, random structure sampling shows a significant composition region where the rocksalt basin dominates. As such, we predict the potential for the nonequilibrium synthesis of metastable rocksalt TaC 1-x N x alloys as substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. At higher nitrogen concentrations, other low-energy metastable polymorphs emerge that continue to retain the hexagonal close packing suitable for III-N growth. Confidence in these trends was established through uncertainty quantification of the basin sizes and energy distributions; such analysis utilized the Beta and Dirichlet distributions. In conclusion, we also find (a) polymorph basin sizes can be rationalized in terms of energetic preferences for different coordination environments; and (b) basin sizes universally shrink with increasing nitrogen content, making the system more prone to amorphous growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Sensor Optimal Motion Planning for Radiological Contamination Surveys by Using Prediction-Difference Maps

Distributed and networked mobile sensor platforms using unmanned aerial and/or ground vehicles to survey areas of interest offer a safer and more efficient method for radiological contamination mapping; however, most applications rely on uniformly sweeping of the area in a raster-type motion without utilizing the information available in a dynamic sense. We have developed a fully autonomous optimal motion planning procedure for networks with two or more mobile sensors. The procedure utilizes well-established concepts of Gaussian processes in combination with control laws based on centroidal Voronoi tessellations to achieve optimal next-iteration sensor movements. A new method of informing optimal motion planning is proposed, whereby the absolute difference between the prior and current full-map prediction, referred to as the prediction-difference map, is used as the spatial density function within each Voronoi cell, providing immediate and iterative feedback for dynamic use of available information. The Gaussian process regression model used to estimate the contamination in unvisited locations also provides prediction uncertainties, and can be used as a quantitative metric to assess the confidence in the calculated contamination map; these estimates and prediction uncertainties are unavailable for standard uniform survey routines as they can only produce maps in the vicinity of observed locations. We present through simulation the achievable performance gains from using this new method by directly comparing to a uniform survey method. Results show that using the prediction-difference maps to inform motion planning procedures offers a faster rate of producing an accurate and convergent map relative to a uniform survey route.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1994

Heliospheric current sheet inclinations predicted from source surface maps

The inclinations of the neutral line at the ecliptic plane derived from source surface model maps of coronal fields are measured for the interval from June 1976 to March 1992. The mean and median values of 53 deg and 57 deg are close to the average inclinations determined earlier from minimum variance analyses of solar wind measurements at sector boundaries, but the mode falls in the 80 deg - 90 deg bin. This result, which is based on the model assumptions implicit in deriving the source surface maps, predicts that the heliospheric current sheet typically intersects the ecliptic plane nearly at right angles, even without steepening by stream interaction regions. High inclinations dominate the solar cycle for about 7 years around solar maximum. Dips to lower inclination occur near solar minimum, but high variance admits a wide range of inclinations throughout the cycle. Compared to the smooth solar cycle variation of the maximum latitudinal excursion of the neutral line, often treated as the tilt angle of a flat heliospheric current sheet, the noisy variation of the inclinations reflects the degree to which the neutral line deviates from a sine wave, implying warps and corrugations in the current sheet. About a third of the time the neutral line so deviates that it doubles back in longitude.

Shodhan, S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictive process mapping for laser powder bed fusion: A review of existing analytical solutions

One of the main challenges in the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process is making dense and defect-free components. These porosity defects are dependent upon the melt pool geometry and the processing conditions. Power-velocity (PV) processing maps can aid in visualizing the effects of LPBF processing variables and mapping different defect regimes such as lack-of-fusion, under-melting, balling, and keyholing. This work presents an assessment of existing analytical equations and models that provide an estimate of the melt pool geometry as a function of material properties. The melt pool equations are then combined with defect criteria to provide a quick approximation of the PV processing maps for a variety of materials. Finally, the predictions of these processing maps are compared with experimental data from the literature. Here, the predictive processing maps can be computed quickly and can be coupled with dimensionless numbers and high-throughput (HT) experiments for validation. The present work provides a boundary framework for designing the optimal processing parameters for new metals and alloys based on existing analytical solutions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1972

World maps of predicted electron intensities for the ITOS-A/NOAA-1 spacecraft

Maps of electron fluxes 10,000, 1 million, and 10 million particles/sq cm/sec are presented for an ITOS-A/NOAA-1 circular orbit, inclination of 79 deg, and altitude of 1463 km. The uncertainty in the flux values is about a factor of 3, and the error in contour plotting may be plus or minus 2 deg in latitude and plus or minus 3 deg in longitude. The fractional lifetime spent within the different intensity regions is graphed.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Bayesian Deep Learning for Segmentation for Autonomous Safe Planetary Landing

Hazard detection is critical for enabling autonomous landing on planetary surfaces. Current state-of-the-art methods leverage traditional computer vision approaches to automate the identification of safe terrain from input digital elevation models (DEMs). However, performance for these methods can degrade for input DEMs with increased sensor noise. In the last decade, deep learning techniques have been developed for various applications. Nevertheless, their applicability to safety-critical space missions has often been limited due to concerns regarding their outputs’ reliability. In response to these limitations, this paper proposes an application of the Bayesian deep learning segmentation method for hazard detection. The developed approach enables reliable, safe landing site detection by i) generating simultaneously a safety prediction map and its uncertainty map via Bayesian deep learning and semantic segmentation, and ii) using the uncertainty map to filter out the uncertain pixels in the prediction map so that the safe site identification is performed only based on the certain pixels (i.e., pixels for which the model is certain about its safety prediction). Experiments are presented with simulated data based on a Mars HiRISE digital terrain model by varying uncertainty threshold and noise levels to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach.

Kento Tomita↗
NASA NTRS2020

Mapping the Predicted Solar Wind Hydrogen Flux in Lunar South Pole Craters

The solar wind hydrogen flux is mapped onto the topography of four lunar south pole craters; Shackleton, Haworth, Shoemaker and Faustini. Using altimetry data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, we apply an analytic plasma model to map the hydrogen flux onto the surface, time-averaged over a lunar rotation cycle. We present a series of maps including the average flux, geomagnetic modulation, and ion flow energy. These results are intended to inform further studies of dynamic lunar surface processes, such as volatile implantation, sputtering,and weathering. As an example, we also present a map of a surface ice sheet lifetime based on ion sputtering.

William M Farrell↗
DOE OSTI2025

Latent space mapping: Revolutionizing predictive models for divertor plasma detachment control

The inherent complexity of boundary plasma, characterized by multi-scale and multi-physics challenges, has historically restricted high-fidelity simulations to scientific research due to their intensive computational demands. Consequently, routine applications such as discharge control and scenario development have relied on faster but less accurate empirical methods. This work introduces DivControlNN, a novel machine-learning-based surrogate model designed to address these limitations by enabling quasi-real-time predictions (i.e., ~ 0.2 ms) of boundary and divertor plasma behavior. Trained on over 70,000 2D UEDGE simulations from KSTAR tokamak equilibria, DivControlNN employs latent space mapping to efficiently represent complex divertor plasma states, achieving a computational speed-up of over 10 8 compared to traditional simulations while maintaining a relative error below 20% for key plasma property predictions. During the 2024 KSTAR experimental campaign, a prototype detachment control system powered by DivControlNN successfully demonstrated detachment control on its first attempt, even for a new tungsten divertor configuration and without any fine-tuning. These results highlight the transformative potential of DivControlNN in overcoming diagnostic challenges in future fusion reactors by providing fast, robust, and reliable predictions for advanced integrated control systems.

Artificial neural networks↗
NASA NTRS2012

Can Selforganizing Maps Accurately Predict Photometric Redshifts?

We present an unsupervised machine-learning approach that can be employed for estimating photometric redshifts. The proposed method is based on a vector quantization called the self-organizing-map (SOM) approach. A variety of photometrically derived input values were utilized from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's main galaxy sample, luminous red galaxy, and quasar samples, along with the PHAT0 data set from the Photo-z Accuracy Testing project. Regression results obtained with this new approach were evaluated in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) to estimate the accuracy of the photometric redshift estimates. The results demonstrate competitive RMSE and outlier percentages when compared with several other popular approaches, such as artificial neural networks and Gaussian process regression. SOM RMSE results (using delta(z) = z(sub phot) - z(sub spec)) are 0.023 for the main galaxy sample, 0.027 for the luminous red galaxy sample, 0.418 for quasars, and 0.022 for PHAT0 synthetic data. The results demonstrate that there are nonunique solutions for estimating SOM RMSEs. Further research is needed in order to find more robust estimation techniques using SOMs, but the results herein are a positive indication of their capabilities when compared with other well-known methods

Way, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Mapping Arid Vegetation Species Distributions in the White Mountains, Eastern California, Using AVIRIS, Topography, and Geology

Our challenge is to model plant species distributions in complex montane environments using disparate sources of data, including topography, geology, and hyperspectral data. From an ecologist's point of view, species distributions are determined by local environment and disturbance history, while spectral data are 'ancillary.' However, a remote sensor's perspective says that spectral data provide picture of what vegetation is there, topographic and geologic data are ancillary. In order to bridge the gap, all available data should be used to get the best possible prediction of species distributions using complex multivariate techniques implemented on a GIS. Vegetation reflects local climatic and nutrient conditions, both of which can be modeled, allowing predictive mapping of vegetation distributions. Geologic substrate strongly affects chemical, thermal, and physical properties of soils, while climatic conditions are determined by local topography. As elevation increases, precipitation increases and temperature decreases. Aspect, slope, and surrounding topography determine potential insolation, so that south-facing slopes are warmer and north-facing slopes cooler at a given elevation. Topographic position (ridge, slope, canyon, or meadow) and slope angle affect sediment accumulation and soil depth. These factors combine as complex environmental gradients, and underlie many features of plant distributions. Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data, digital elevation models, digitized geologic maps, and 378 ground control points were used to predictively map species distributions in the central and southern White Mountains, along the western boundary of the Basin and Range province. Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) bands were calculated from the visible and near-infrared AVIRIS bands, and combined with digitized geologic maps and topographic variables using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). CCA allows for modeling species 'envelopes' in multidimensional environmental space, which can then be projected across entire landscapes.

VandeVen, C.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The prediction and mapping of geoidal undulations from GEOS-3 altimetry

From the adjusted altimeter data an approximation to the geoid height in ocean areas is obtained. Methods are developed to produce geoid maps in these areas. Geoid heights are obtained for grid points in the region to be mapped, and two of the parameters critical to the production of an accurate map are investigated. These are the spacing of the grid, which must be related to the half-wavelength of the altimeter signal whose amplitude is the desired accuracy of the contour; and the method adopted to predict the grid values. Least squares collocation was used to find geoid undulations on a 1 deg grid in the mapping area. Twenty maps, with their associated precisions, were produced and are included. These maps cover the Indian Ocean, Southwestern and Northeastern portions of the Pacific Ocean, and Southwest Atlantic and the U.S. Calibration Area.

Kearsley, W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Genetic mapping and prediction of flowering time and plant height in a maize Stiff Stalk MAGIC population

Abstract The Stiff Stalk heterotic pool is a foundation of US maize seed parent germplasm and has been heavily utilized by both public and private maize breeders since its inception in the 1930s. Flowering time and plant height are critical characteristics for both inbred parents and their test crossed hybrid progeny. To study these traits, a 6-parent multiparent advanced generation intercross population was developed including maize inbred lines B73, B84, PHB47 (B37 type), LH145 (B14 type), PHJ40 (novel early Stiff Stalk), and NKH8431 (B73/B14 type). A set of 779 doubled haploid lines were evaluated for flowering time and plant height in 2 field replicates in 2016 and 2017, and a subset of 689 and 561 doubled haploid lines were crossed to 2 testers, respectively, and evaluated as hybrids in 2 locations in 2018 and 2019 using an incomplete block design. Markers were derived from a practical haplotype graph built from the founder whole genome assemblies and genotype-by-sequencing and exome capture-based sequencing of the population. Genetic mapping utilizing an update to R/qtl2 revealed differing profiles of significant loci for both traits between 635 of the DH lines and 2 sets of 570 and 471 derived hybrids. Genomic prediction was used to test the feasibility of predicting hybrid phenotypes based on the per se data. Predictive abilities were highest on direct models trained using the data they would predict (0.55–0.63), and indirect models trained using per se data to predict hybrid traits had slightly lower predictive abilities (0.49–0.55). Overall, this finding is consistent with the overlapping and nonoverlapping significant quantitative trait loci found within the per se and hybrid populations and suggests that selections for phenology traits can be made effectively on doubled haploid lines before hybrid data is available.

Genetics & Heredity↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predictive Risk Mapping of Schistosomiasis in Madagascar Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Precision Mapping

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) found throughout tropical and subtropical Africa. In Madagascar, the condition is widespread and endemic in 74% of all administrative districts in the country. Despite the significant burden of the disease, high-resolution risk maps have yet to be produced to guide national control programs. This study used an ecological niche modeling (ENM) and precision mapping approach to estimate environmental suitability and disease transmission risk. The results show that suitability for schistosomiasis is widespread and covers 264,781 km 2 (102,232 sq miles). Covariates of significance to the model were the accessibility to cities, distance to water, enhanced vegetation index (EVI), annual mean temperature, land surface temperature (LST), clay content, and annual precipitation. Disease transmission risk is greatest in the central highlands, tropical east coast, arid-southwest, and northwest. An estimated 14.9 million people could be at risk of schistosomiasis; 11.4 million reside in rural areas, while 3.5 million are in urban areas. This study provides valuable insight into the geography of schistosomiasis in Madagascar and its potential risk to human populations. Because of the focal nature of the disease, these maps can inform national surveillance programs while improving understanding of areas in need of medical interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Method for Producing Hierarchical and Statistically Calibrated Predictions of Nuclear Material Properties from Existing Models

Computer vision-based analysis of micrographs of nuclear materials is an emerging technique for property prediction, synthetic route identification, and other material analysis tasks. These analysis tasks play a pivotal role in many material characterization applications such as signature development for treaty verification, process optimization, etc. The backbone in many of the recent computer vision-based techniques is a deep learning model, which takes a fixed-size set of pixels and provides a class prediction for that set of pixels. For example, previous work developed a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict the synthetic route from a 256 px x 256 px patch taken from a larger image of uranium ore concentrates. In this work, we present several methods for first calibrating these models in a manner that they can provide accurate probabilities of their predictions’ veracity, and several methods of combining these probabilities. Overall, the combination of these two steps into a pipeline allows for full-image and even full-sample (where a sample has many images) predictions with associated confidence values. Finally, we show that one can also use the patch predictions and confidence to produce a visualization to map predicted constituents through the image. Results and examples for predicting and mapping uranium ore concentrates’ synthetic process from imagery will be presented.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2025

Foaming prediction in pure liquids from dimensionless numbers inspired by the theory of fluid behavior for drops

Foaming prediction is critical for selecting materials and designing processes in industries such as bioprocessing and gas processing. Existing models lack the generality needed for a wide range of materials and overlook the foaming behavior in pure liquids. Here, this work presents a novel method for predicting foaming in pure liquids based on their density, surface tension, and viscosity, using Reynolds ( Re ) and Ohnesorge ( Oh ) numbers. A foaming prediction map, leveraging the theory of fluid drop behavior, was developed by plotting these numbers. This map delineates distinct non-foaming and foaming regions, functioning as a binary classifier for foaming predictions. The map was fitted and validated through shake test experiments on 46 liquids, demonstrating reliable predictions, except for a specific region characterized by small Oh and large Re numbers. This region corresponded to relatively low foam stability and high turbulence, making foaming predictions challenging for liquids in this category.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗