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Flexible AI Models for Grid Resilience

The rapid growth in size and complexity of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models has led to increased energy demands, posing a threat to the reliability of the existing power grid. This project addresses the challenge of highly intermittent and energy-intensive inference workloads by (1) developing fidelity-adaptive neural networks capable of dynamic response to grid conditions and (2) integrating these networks with power flow simulations to assess their impact on power grid reliability. We will explore both top-down and bottom-up approaches to create hierarchies of submodels that provide a controlled trade-off between power draw and prediction accuracy. The top-down method utilizes NN pruning to reduce a flagship model into progressively smaller, energy-efficient variants. The bottom-up approach employs geometrically principled weight setting strategies to construct depth-efficient models from the ground up. A real-time hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform will be developed to simulate a scaled AC power grid, integrating live AI workload power draw and enabling dynamic model switching in response to grid feedback. This work will provide a novel framework for evaluating the impact of flexible AI/ML workloads on grid performance and establish new methodologies for energy-aware computing in data centers. The outcomes will demonstrate that adaptive AI/ML can play a critical role in improving grid stability while advancing NREL's leadership in energy-efficient computing research.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Newton-Raphson AC Power Flow Convergence Based on Deep Learning Initialization and Homotopy Continuation

Power flow forms the basis of many power system studies. With the increased penetration of renewable energy, grid planners tend to perform multiple power flow simulations under various operating conditions and not just selected snapshots at peak or light load conditions. Getting a converged AC power flow (ACPF) case remains a significant challenge for grid planners especially in large power grid networks. This paper proposes a two-stage approach to improve Newton-Raphson ACPF convergence and was applied to a 6102 bus Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. The first stage utilizes a deep learning-based initializer with data re-training. Here a deep neural network (DNN) initializer is developed to provide better initial voltage magnitude and angle guesses to aid in power flow convergence. This is because Newton-Raphson ACPF is quite sensitive to the initial conditions and bad initialization could lead to divergence. The DNN initializer includes a data re-training framework that improves the initializer's performance when faced with limited training data. The DNN initializer successfully solved 3,285 cases out of 3,899 non-converging dispatch and performed better than random forest and DC power flow initialization methods. ACPF cases not solved in this first stage are then passed through a hot-starting algorithm based on homotopy continuation with switched shunt control. The hot-starting algorithm successfully converged 416 cases out of the remaining 614 non-converging ACPF dispatch. In conclusion, the combined two-stage approach achieved a 94.9% success rate, by converging a total of 3,701 cases out of the initial 3,899 unsolved cases.

Deep learning

Scalable Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Power Systems With Uncertain Wind Generation and Loads

Risk assessment of rare events has become increasingly important in power system planning and operation with the increasing integration of renewable energy and the presence of system uncertainties. However, quantifying the risk posed by rare events via the traditional method, i.e., Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), incurs substantial computational expense stemming from the vast ensemble of power flow simulations. To accelerate the assessment, this paper proposes a Deep Neural Network (DNN)-kernelized vector-valued Gaussian Process (VVGP) approach with excellent computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy. Consequently, serving as a surrogate model for the power flow solver, the DNN-kernelized VVGP enables significantly faster but accurate risk assessment compared to the power flow solver. The developed surrogate model evaluates low-order N - k events that contain more than 90% instances by adeptly capturing the topological features while the high-order N - k events are assessed via a power flow solver, thereby striking a balance between computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification accuracy. Moreover, the model incorporates a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to resample concerning low-probability tail events to counteract the biases potentially introduced during the DNN-kernelized VVGP evaluations. Simulations conducted on the modified IEEE 24-bus, 118-bus, and European 1354-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method maintains the accuracy benchmark set by MCS while significantly reducing computational demands in large-scale power systems as compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

17 WIND ENERGY

Study of eVTOL Charging Impact on Airport Electrical Grids

Growth in commercial air traffic has increased the aviation industry's contribution to global emissions. Aircraft electrification can reduce greenhouse gas emissions along with being efficient and reliable. Advanced air mobility introduces the idea of an advanced and more efficient air transportation system. Electric and hybrid aircraft designs, such as electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL), are being considered for a number of applications, such as urban air mobility, cargo delivery, and medical emergencies. Although the electrification of aircraft provides environmental benefits, their charging needs will place significant demand on the electrical grid. This work presents a grid impact study and infrastructure upgrade requirements analysis of eVTOL charging on a realistic distribution grid through power flow simulation analysis. The case study results show that the eVTOL charging can lead to power quality issues, such as undervoltage and equipment capacity overloading. Grid infrastructure, such as lines and transformers, would need to be upgraded, and voltage management strategies would need to be deployed to accommodate eVTOL charging at an existing airport.

advanced air mobility (AAM)

CRADA Number NFE-24-10110 with Qubit Engineering Inc. (CRADA Final Report)

Over the past year, the Qubit Engineering team has pushed the frontiers of power‑grid optimization, working in close collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). Their progress is reflected in three newly submitted conference papers, “Unified Relational GNN Architecture for AC Optimal Power Flow Calculations in Electric Grids,” “Graph‑Based Attention Mechanisms for Solving the AC Optimal Power Flow Problem in Electrical‑Power Networks,” and “Enhanced Power‑Grid Maintenance Planning and Quantum‑Inspired Combinatorial Prospects.” These publications showcase state‑of‑the‑art graph‑neural‑network methods for AC‑OPF and novel quantum‑inspired heuristics for maintenance scheduling. Beyond the academic results, the Qubit team has converted the research into two production‑grade tools built on TVA data: Neuro‑Grid, an AI‑driven power‑flow simulator that provides instant, interactive full‑grid load‑flow visualizations, and Quanta‑Grid, a quantum‑inspired maintenance‑scheduling engine to support logistics optimization for power utilities. Together, these advances demonstrate how Qubit’s partnership with ORNL and TVA is delivering practical, physics‑grounded analytics for next‑generation grid management.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Unsupervised Learning for Equitable DER Control: Preprint

In the context of managing distributed energy resources (DERs) within distribution networks (DNs), this work focuses on the task of developing local controllers. We propose an unsupervised learning framework to train functions that can closely approximate optimal power flow (OPF) solutions. The primary aim is to establish specific conditions under which these learned functions can collectively guide the network towards desired configurations asymptotically, leveraging an incremental control approach. The flexibility of the proposed methodology allows to integrate fairness-driven components into the cost function associated with the OPF problem. This addition seeks to mitigate power curtailment disparities among DERs, thereby promoting equitable power injections across the network. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, power flow simulations are conducted using the IEEE 37-bus feeder. The findings not only showcase the guaranteed system stability but also underscore its improved overall performance.

asymptotic stability

CFD code calibration and inlet-fairing effects on a 3D hypersonic powered-simulation model

A three-dimensional (3D) computational study has been performed addressing issues related to the wind tunnel testing of a hypersonic powered-simulation model. The study consisted of three objectives. The first objective was to calibrate a state-of-the-art computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code in its ability to predict hypersonic powered-simulation flows by comparing CFD solutions with experimental surface pressure dam. Aftbody lower surface pressures were well predicted, but lower surface wing pressures were less accurately predicted. The second objective was to determine the 3D effects on the aftbody created by fairing over the inlet; this was accomplished by comparing the CFD solutions of two closed-inlet powered configurations with a flowing-inlet powered configuration. Although results at four freestream Mach numbers indicate that the exhaust plume tends to isolate the aftbody surface from most forebody flowfield differences, a smooth inlet fairing provides the least aftbody force and moment variation compared to a flowing inlet. The final objective was to predict and understand the 3D characteristics of exhaust plume development at selected points on a representative flight path. Results showed a dramatic effect of plume expansion onto the wings as the freestream Mach number and corresponding nozzle pressure ratio are increased.

Huebner, Lawrence D.

CFD Code Calibration and Inlet-Fairing Effects On a 3D Hypersonic Powered-Simulation Model

A three-dimensional (3D) computational study has been performed addressing issues related to the wind tunnel testing of a hypersonic powered-simulation model. The study consisted of three objectives. The first objective was to calibrate a state-of-the-art computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code in its ability to predict hypersonic powered-simulation flows by comparing CFD solutions with experimental surface pressure data. Aftbody lower surface pressures were well predicted, but lower surface wing pressures were less accurately predicted. The second objective was to determine the 3D effects on the aftbody created by fairing over the inlet; this was accomplished by comparing the CFD solutions of two closed-inlet powered configurations with a flowing- inlet powered configuration. Although results at four freestream Mach numbers indicate that the exhaust plume tends to isolate the aftbody surface from most forebody flow- field differences, a smooth inlet fairing provides the least aftbody force and moment variation compared to a flowing inlet. The final objective was to predict and understand the 3D characteristics of exhaust plume development at selected points on a representative flight path. Results showed a dramatic effect of plume expansion onto the wings as the freestream Mach number and corresponding nozzle pressure ratio are increased.

Huebner, Lawrence D.

Three-Dimensional Grid Visualization for Planning Activities: A Dubai Case Study

National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), in collaboration with the Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (DEWA) and Infra-X, has undertaken the Energy Visualization Analysis Project. The aim of this project is to enhance analytical and 3D visualization capabilities for distribution network planning and renewable energy integration. As modern grid continues to evolve with large-scale solar PV deployment and emerging distributed energy resources (DERs), the ability to effectively analyze, visualize, and communicate complex grid behaviors has become increasingly critical. The project focuses on developing empirical use cases based on real distribution feeder data and engineering workflows, ensuring the outcomes are directly aligned with operational environment. Through time-series power flow simulations and nodal hosting capacity analysis, the study quantifies the impacts of high PV penetration on voltage and thermal limits within representative 11 kV feeders. These analyses identify specific nodes and conditions where DER integration challenges arise. Furthermore, a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) optimization algorithm was applied to determine the optimal size and placement of storage systems that can mitigate network constraints and enhance hosting capacity. The comparative results between base-case and BESS-augmented scenarios clearly demonstrate improvements in network stability and load management efficiency. In parallel, the NLR team developed an immersive 3D visualization framework, enabling interactive exploration of grid simulations using commodity head-mounted display (HMD) systems. This framework transforms conventional 2D simulation data into spatially intuitive visual environments - allowing engineers to analyze feeder conditions, PV hosting potential, and BESS effects in real time. This report represents the first foundational phase in establishing a visualization-driven analytical ecosystem. It provides a methodological foundation for data integration, visualization architecture, and simulation-based decision support, paving the way for large-scale adoption of immersive visualization across DEWA's Smart Grid Initiative, R&D activities, and future network resilience studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

A Novel Framework to Quantify Power Grid Resilience

The quantification of an operating power grid’s resilience is highly significant today, given its criticality as an enabler of other infrastructures, complexity, and the threat it faces due to a wide range of detrimental events, from extreme climate to cyber attacks. Currently, there exist no standardized definitions and metrics for measuring the resilience of an operating grid. In this paper, we introduce a novel resilience quantification framework and demonstrate a method to measure the flexibility towards topological/structural changes due to potential failures in the power grid to assess operational resilience. We start with the state estimation data from a large utility and use the graph analysis methods and power flow simulation tools to compute the identified resilience parameters.

Yoginath, Srikanth

An Approach for Utilizing Power Flow Modeling for Simulations of Hybrid Electric Propulsion Systems

This paper describes an approach to creating simulations of the electric components for a hybrid electric propulsionsystem. The proposed modeling technique is based on power/load flow modeling and is designed to provide a modularframework that includes buses, lines, and other electrical components that can be connected together to form the electrical distribution system. The purpose of this paper is to detail an electric distribution system modeling technique and to demonstrate how these models may be integrated with turbomachinery simulations. These general modeling techniques were created to be utilized for system and control design studies. Additionally, steady-state and dynamic performance for a proposed model example is compared with data from a hardware in the loop simulation.

Power Flow

Simulated measurement of power flow in structures near to simple sources and simple boundaries

Advances in electronics technology along with the advent of low cost multichannel Fast Fourier analyzers have made it practical to use higher order central difference formulas to measure power flow in 1- and 2-D structures. The method discussed uses five point differencing for the spatial derivatives in 1-D and a thirteen point difference pattern for the spatial derivatives in 2-D plates and shells. It is assumed that the measuring transducers are accelerometers. An analytical study of the higher order differencing method and the conventional two accelerometer method was performed as a preliminary to the application of these methods to actual aircraft structures. Some classical problems were analyzed in order to simulate and compare the performance of the two methods under near field measurement conditions. These near field conditions include examples of power flows near simple sources and simple boundaries. The estimates produced by the two methods were compared to the exact solution in each example. Presented are the theory and selected results of the study, which indicate that the bias errors of the two accelerometer method under near field measurement conditions may be much larger than previous studies have suggested.

Mcgary, Michael C.

An Approach for Utilizing Power Flow Modeling for Simulations of Hybrid Electric Propulsion Systems

This paper describes an approach to creating simulations of the electric components for a hybrid electric propulsion system. The proposed modeling technique is based on power/load flow modeling and is designed to provide a modular framework that includes buses, lines, and other electrical components that can be connected together to form the electrical distribution system. The purpose of this paper is to detail an electric distribution system modeling technique and to demonstrate how these models may be integrated with turbomachinery simulations. These general modeling techniques were created to be utilized for system and control design studies. Additionally, steady-state and dynamic performance for a proposed model example is compared with data from a hardware in the loop simulation.

Chapman, Jeffryes W.

Modeled sensitivity of multi-MA accelerator performance to electrode contaminant inventory

Significant particle-in-cell code development has enabled simulations of power flow in multi-MA accelerators to include the desorption of surface contaminants, their ionization into surface plasmas, and the impact of these plasmas on efficiency. The simulations base desorption on an Arrhenius equation, whose most significant unknown is the surface contaminant inventory. The sensitivity of power-flow simulations to this inventory is studied here using Sandia National Laboratories' Z accelerator with a 7-nH MagLIF load [Phys. Plasmas 17, 056303 (2010)]. Simulations are conducted in 3D cylindrical coordinates for the current-adder, or “convolute,” region of Z and in 2D for the final feed only. Simulated contaminant inventories are varied from 1 to 32 monolayers (MLs) in 2D, and 2 to 4 ML in 3D. The results reveal sensitivities to the local ratio of E/B⁠. The high B-field, low E-field region near the short-circuit load is insensitive to the contaminant inventory, where assumed values of 4–32 ML change the load current by ≤ 2%, and agree with experiment to within 2% at peak current. A 1-ML value is the outlier, increasing the load current by 5%, but still within measurement uncertainty. In contrast, the relatively higher E-field, lower B-field convolute region has slower contaminant desorption and higher-magnitude E-field penetration of the surface plasmas. The current loss in the convolute region does increase with contaminant inventory. The loss assuming 4 ML is 12% larger than for 2 ML, with 4 ML being the better match to experiment.

Arrhenius equation

Numerical simulation of a powered-lift landing, tracking flow features using overset grids, and simulation of high lift devices on a fighter-lift-and-control wing

Attached as appendices to this report are documents describing work performed on the simulation of a landing powered-lift delta wing, the tracking of flow features using overset grids, and the simulation of flaps on the Wright Patterson Lab's fighter-lift-and-control (FLAC) wing. Numerical simulation of a powered-lift landing includes the computation of flow about a delta wing at four fixed heights as well as a simulated landing, in which the delta wing descends toward the ground. Comparison of computed and experimental lift coefficients indicates that the simulations capture the qualitative trends in lift-loss encountered by thrust-vectoring aircraft operating in ground effect. Power spectra of temporal variations of pressure indicate computed vortex shedding frequencies close to the jet exit are in the experimentally observed frequency range; the power spectra of pressure also provide insights into the mechanisms of lift oscillations. Also, a method for using overset grids to track dynamic flow features is described and the method is validated by tracking a moving shock and vortices shed behind a circular cylinder. Finally, Chimera gridding strategies were used to develop pressure coefficient contours for the FLAC wing for a Mach no. of 0.18 and Reynolds no. of 2.5 million.

Chawla, Kalpana

Numerical simulation of powered-lift flows

This article presents work performed at NASA Ames involving the application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to the prediction of flows encountered by powered-lift aircraft operating in ground effect. These flows are characterized by jet and jet-induced flows interacting with the ground and aerodynamic surfaces. Over the last five years, work has progressed from simulating the interaction of a single jet impacting on a ground plane, through the simulation of a delta planform with multiple jets in ground effect, to an ongoing effort to simulate the complete flow about a Harrier AV-8B in ground effect. Efforts have also been made to predict the thermal interaction between hot propulsive jets and a landing surface of arbitrary thermal properties. Progress to data in each of these areas is outlined.

Van Dalsem, William R.

Numerical simulation of powered-lift flows

This article presents work performed at NASA's Ames Research Center involving the application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to the prediction of flows encountered by powered-lift aircraft operating in ground effect. These flows are characterized by jet and jet-induced flows interacting with the ground and aerodynamic surfaces. Over the last five years, work has progressed from simulating the interaction of a single jet impacting on a ground plane, through the simulation of a delta planform with multiple jets in ground effect, to an ongoing effort to simulate the complete flow about a Harrier AV-8B in ground effect. Efforts have also been made to predict the thermal interaction between hot propulsive jets and a landing surface of arbitrary thermal properties. Progress to date in each of these areas will be outlined.

Van Dalsem, William R.