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Intersections of Disadvantaged Communities and Renewable Energy Potential: Data Set and Analysis to Inform Equitable Investment Prioritization in the United States
Renewable energy development can bolster local economies through job creation, local tax revenues, and reduced energy costs; however, communities most in need of economic development and employment opportunities often see lower levels of renewable energy deployment. We sought to identify areas where disadvantaged community indicators and high generation potential from cost-effective renewable energy opportunities intersect and deployment could lead to economic development and job creation. This presentation will highlight several of our findings. This research and the associated county-level data set are intended to inform national- and state-level energy-related assistance programs, economic development efforts, and infrastructure programs seeking to prioritize investments in disadvantaged communities.
A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment
Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.
DP-GEN: A concurrent learning platform for the generation of reliable deep learning based potential energy models
Not provided.
Potential energy surfaces for high-energy N + O 2 collisions
Potential energy surfaces for high-energy collisions between an oxygen molecule and a nitrogen atom are useful for modeling chemical dynamics in shock waves. In the present work, we present doublet, quartet, and sextet potential energy surfaces that are suitable for studying collisions of O 2 ( 3 Σ$^{–}_{g}$) with N( 4 S) in the electronically adiabatic approximation. Two sets of surfaces are developed, one using neural networks (NNs) with permutationally invariant polynomials (PIPs) and one with the least-squares many-body (MB) method, where a two-body part is an accurate diatomic potential and the three-body part is expressed with connected PIPs in mixed-exponential-Gaussian bond order variables (MEGs). We find, using the same dataset for both fits, that the fitting performance of the PIP-NN method is significantly better than that of the MB-PIP-MEG method, even though the MB-PIP-MEG fit uses a higher-order PIP than those used in previous MB-PIP-MEG fits of related systems (such as N 4 and N 2 O 2 ). However, the evaluation of the PIP-NN fit in trajectory calculations requires about 5 times more computer time than is required for the MB-PIP-MEG fit.
Between Harmonic Crystal and Glass: Solids with Dimpled Potential-Energy Surfaces Having Multiple Local Energy Minima
Solids with dimpled potential-energy surfaces are ubiquitous in nature and, typically, exhibit structural (elastic or phonon) instabilities. Dimpled potentials are not harmonic; thus, the conventional quasiharmonic approximation at finite temperatures fails to describe anharmonic vibrations in such solids. At sufficiently high temperatures, their crystal structure is stabilized by entropy; in this phase, a diffraction pattern of a periodic crystal is combined with vibrational properties of a phonon glass. As temperature is lowered, the solid undergoes a symmetry-breaking transition and transforms into a lower-symmetry phase with lower lattice entropy. Here, we identify specific features in the potential-energy surface that lead to such polymorphic behavior; we establish reliable estimates for the relative energies and temperatures associated with the anharmonic vibrations and the solid–solid symmetry-breaking phase transitions. We show that computational phonon methods can be applied to address anharmonic vibrations in a polymorphic solid at fixed temperature. To illustrate the ubiquity of this class of materials, we present a range of examples (elemental metals, a shape-memory alloy, and a layered charge-density-wave system); we show that our theoretical predictions compare well with known experimental data.
PotLib 2023: New version of a potential energy surface library for chemical systems
POTLIB is a library of global and semiglobal potential energy surface subprograms. The library currently features 410 entries, including both single-state entries and multi-state entries. When one calls the routine of a single-state entry, it returns the ground-electronic-state adiabatic potential energy surface at the input geometry. In addition, some entries also return the gradient of the surface. Further, when one calls a multi-state entry, it returns a diabatic potential energy matrix (DPEM). If the entry also has the gradient of the DPEM, one can compute adiabatic surfaces, their gradients, and the nonadiabatic coupling vectors (NACs) from the DPEM and its gradient by diagonalization. Some but not all the routines conform to one of a set of standard interfaces. The goal is to facilitate chemical dynamics research by collecting and disseminating a comprehensive collection of state-of-the-art potential energy routines (developed by a wide, international group of researchers) with systematic and well-defined interfaces for use with chemical dynamics programs. Systems in the library include CHArO 2 , CHN 2 O + , CH 2 O, CH 2 O 2 , CH 3 N 2 , CH 3 O, CH 4 , CH 4 Br, CH 4 Cl, CH 4 F, CH 4 O, CH 4 OCl, CH 4 OF, CH 4 OH, CH 5 , CH$^{+}_{5}$, CH 5 N, CH 5 O 2 , CH 8 O 2 , C 2 H 2 N 2 O, C 2 H 2 O, C 2 H 4 N, C 2 H 4 O 4 , C 2 H 6 Cl, C 2 H 6 F, C 2 H 6 H, C 2 H 6 O, C 2 H 6 OH, C 2 H 7 , C 2 O 2 , C 3 H 4 O 2 , C 3 H 7 NO, C 6 H 6 O, C 6 H 6 S, C 7 H8S, HBrCl, HCl 2 , HF 2 , HI 2 , HLiF, HNaF, HO 2 , HO 3 , HOBr, HSiO, H 2 Br, H 2 ClO, H 2 F, H 2 F 2 , H 2 FO, H 2 Na, H 2 O, H 2 O 2 , H 2 OBr, H 3 , H 3 Cl, H 3 ClN, H 3 ClO, H 3 N, H 3 O, H 3 O 2 , H$^{+}_{3}$, H 3 S, H 4 ClSi, H 4 N, H 4 NO, H 4 O 2 , H 5 GeO, H 5 Si, H$^{+}_{7}$, Al m H n , Al n , Ar N O, K 2 Rb 2 , NO 2 , N 2 O, N 2 O 2 , N 3 , N 4 , O 3 , and O 4 .
Comparative analysis of internal energy excitation and dissociation of nitrogen predicted by independently developed ab initio potential energy surfaces
In this article we present a comparative atomic level study analyzing the vibrational excitation and dissociation of molecular nitrogen due to N 2 ( 1 Σ g + )+N( 4 S u ) and N 2 ( 1 Σ g + )+N 2 ( 1 Σ g + ) interactions governed by independently developed potential energy surfaces at the University of Minnesota and NASA Ames Research Center. Further, vibrational excitation was studied for N 2 +N 2 interactions from T=10000 to 25000 K and for N 2 +N from T=5000 to 30000 K. Nonequilibrium dissociation is studied from T=10000 to 30000 K under the quasi-steady-state condition for N 2 +N 2 and N 2 +N interactions. Finally, an inviscid Mach 20 dissociating nitrogen flow over a cylinder with a Knudsen number of 0.015 is carried out to study the impact of molecular interactions predicted by independently developed potential energy surfaces on a canonical hypersonic flow.
Renewable Energy Potential Model: Hawaii Geothermal Supply Curves
This dataset extends the development of the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to include geothermal energy, with a specific focus on Hawaii. Provided here are the results of two scenarios that were modeled for geothermal energy in Hawaii: binary enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) at a depth of 2.5 km and hydrothermal binary systems at a depth of 1.5 km. The resource data for both scenarios were derived from Lautze and Haskins (2024) using an exponential method. The PFA probability of heat map was used as a look up table for which temperature gradient to use (Lautze and Haskins, 2024). The dataset provides geospatial and techno-economic details for evaluating geothermal energy potential. It includes spatial coordinates, estimated capacity factors, developable area, resource potential, and annual energy production metrics. Economic details such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), site development costs, transmission costs, and fixed-charge rates are also included. The reV model, originally developed for wind and solar energy, incorporates these variables to evaluate deployment constraints related to land use, environmental and cultural factors, and grid integration.
MB-Fit: Software infrastructure for data-driven many-body potential energy functions
Many-body potential energy functions (MB-PEFs), which integrate data-driven representations of many-body short-range quantum mechanical interactions with physics-based representations of many-body polarization and long-range interactions, have recently been shown to provide high accuracy in the description of molecular interactions from the gas to the condensed phase. Here, we present MB-Fit, a software infrastructure for the automated development of MB-PEFs for generic molecules within the TTM-nrg (Thole-type model energy) and MB-nrg (many-body energy) theoretical frameworks. Besides providing all the necessary computational tools for generating TTM-nrg and MB-nrg PEFs, MB-Fit provides a seamless interface with the MBX software, a many-body energy and force calculator for computer simulations. Given the demonstrated accuracy of the MB-PEFs, particularly within the MB-nrg framework, we believe that MB-Fit will enable routine predictive computer simulations of generic (small) molecules in the gas, liquid, and solid phases, including, but not limited to, the modeling of quantum isomeric equilibria in molecular clusters, solvation processes, molecular crystals, and phase diagrams.
Case studies of the time-dependent potential energy surface for dynamics in cavities
Here, the exact time-dependent potential energy surface driving the nuclear dynamics was recently shown to be a useful tool to understand and interpret the coupling of nuclei, electrons, and photons in cavity settings. Here, we provide a detailed analysis of its structure for exactly solvable systems that model two phenomena: cavity-induced suppression of proton-coupled electron-transfer and its dependence on the initial state, and cavity-induced electronic excitation. We demonstrate the inadequacy of simply using a weighted average of polaritonic surfaces to determine the dynamics. Such a weighted average misses a crucial term that redistributes energy between the nuclear and the polaritonic systems, and this term can in fact become a predominant term in determining the nuclear dynamics when several polaritonic surfaces are involved. Evolving an ensemble of classical trajectories on the exact potential energy surface reproduces the nuclear wavepacket quite accurately, while evolving on the weighted polaritonic surface fails after a short period of time. The implications and prospects for application of mixed quantum-classical methods based on this surface are discussed.
Renewable Energy Potential Model: Geothermal Supply Curves
The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. The included paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results provided here should be considered with care due to the high uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for three scenarios: two hydrothermal (3.5km depth, USGS heat flow & SMU temperatures respectively) and one EGS (4.5km depth, SMU temperatures). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.
Optimizing PCM-integrated walls for potential energy savings in U.S. Buildings
Buildings in the United States account for nearly half of total U.S. energy use. The energy used for space conditioning can be reduced by utilizing thermal energy storage, such as phase change materials (PCMs), into building envelopes; however, the energy savings of PCM-integrated building envelopes reported in the literature vary widely. In the absence of established guidelines, thermophysical requirements of an optimal PCM, its method of application into the building envelope, and the corresponding energy savings under various climates remain unknown. Here, we perform an extensive numerical investigation on the integration of PCM into building walls to establish the key conditions required for effective utilization of PCM in reducing heat gains in the cooling season and heat losses in the heating season. We also determine the optimal transition temperature, optimal PCM location in the wall, and the energy-saving potential of the PCM-integrated building walls in five U.S. cities located in different International Energy Conservation Code climate zones. Results show that employing PCMs in building walls does not always lead to an improvement; in fact, incorrect applications of PCMs can substantially increase energy use in the buildings. In the climates we studied, PCMs were found effective in reducing heat gains during the cooling season while mostly ineffective in managing heat losses during heating season. Depending on the climate, optimized PCMs in U.S. building walls can provide reduction in the annual heat gain in the range of 3.5% to 47.2% and the annual heat loss in the range of -2.8% to 8.3%. Future consideration of buildings with substantial solar gains in winter may lead to more reduction in heat losses by PCMs.
The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) Model: A Geospatial Platform for Technical Potential and Supply Curve Modeling
The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a platform for detailed assessment of renewable energy (RE) resources and their geospatial intersection with grid infrastructure and land use characteristics. The reV model currently supports photovoltaic (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP) and land-based wind turbine technologies. Modules in the reV framework function at different spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing for assessment of resource potential, technical potential and supply curves at varying levels of detail. The platform runs on NREL's High Performance Computing system, providing scalable and efficient performance from a single location all the way up to continental scales, for a single year or decades of time series resource data. Coupled with NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM), reV supports resource assessment from 5-minute to hourly temporal resolution and provides for analysis of long-term (i.e., year-on-year) variability of RE generation (e.g., interannual variability and exceedance probabilities). Technical potential is measured as a function of resource potential and limitations put on developable land area defined by the user. For example, the user can limit development by land ownership, terrain, land use/cover, and urban areas, as well as custom inputs. Technology, grid interconnection and operation costs, based on the latest market data and future projections, are also embedded in the model. The supply curve module is a spatial sorting algorithm based on plant siting, grid interconnection cost, and regional competition, which provides a geographically discrete estimate of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and supply (i.e., capacity) for specific renewable technologies. The reV model currently provides broad coverage across North America, South and Central Asia, South America and South Africa to inform national- and international-scale analyses as well as regional infrastructure and deployment planning.
Comparative Study of Wind Energy Potential Estimation Methods for Wind Sites in Togo and Benin (West Sub-Saharan Africa)
The characterization of wind speed distribution and the optimal assessment of wind energy potential are critical factors in selecting a suitable site for wind power plants (WPP). The Weibull distribution law has been used extensively to analyze the wind characteristics of candidate WPP sites, and to estimate the available and deliverable energy. This paper presents a comparative study of five wind energy resource assessment methods as they applied to the context of wind sites in West Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated three numerical approaches, namely, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), the multilayer perceptron method (MLP), and support vector regression (SVR), to derive the distribution law of wind speeds and to optimally quantify the corresponding wind energy potential. Next, we compared these three approaches to two well-known Weibull distribution law-based methods: the empirical method of Justus (EMJ) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). Case study results indicated that the neural network-based methods, ANFIS and MLP, yielded the most accurate distribution fits and wind energy potential estimates, and consequently, are the most recommended methods for the wind sites in Togo and Benin. The orders of magnitude of the root mean squared error (RMSE) in estimating the recoverable energy using ANFIS were, respectively, 10-4 and 10-5 for Lomé and Cotonou, while MLP achieved an RMSE order of magnitude of 10-3 for both sites.
Ripples in the bottom of the potential energy landscape of metallic glass
Abstract In the absence of periodicity, the structure of glass is ill-defined, and a large number of structural states are found at similar energy levels. However, little is known about how these states are connected to each other in the potential energy landscape. We simulate mechanical relaxation by molecular dynamics for a prototypical $${{{\rm{C}}}}{{{{\rm{u}}}}}_{64.5}{{{\rm{Z}}}}{{{{\rm{r}}}}}_{35.5}$$ C u 64.5 Z r 35.5 metallic glass and follow the mechanical energy loss of each atom to track the change in the state. We find that the energy barriers separating these states are remarkably low, only of the order of 1 meV, implying that even quantum fluctuations can overcome these potential energy barriers. Our observation of numerous small ripples in the bottom of the potential energy landscape puts many assumptions regarding the thermodynamic states of metallic glasses into question and suggests that metallic glasses are not totally frozen at the local atomic level.
Analysis of scale-dependent kinetic and potential energy in sheared, stably stratified turbulence
Budgets of turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and turbulent potential energy (TPE) at different scales $\ell$ in sheared, stably stratified turbulence are analysed using a filtering approach. Competing effects in the flow are considered, along with the physical mechanisms governing the energy fluxes between scales, and the budgets are used to analyse data from direct numerical simulation at buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_b=O(100)$ . The mean TKE exceeds the TPE by an order of magnitude at the large scales, with the difference reducing as $\ell$ is decreased. At larger scales, buoyancy is never observed to be positive, with buoyancy always converting TKE to TPE. As $\ell$ is decreased, the probability of locally convecting regions increases, though it remains small at scales down to the Ozmidov scale. The TKE and TPE fluxes between scales are both downscale on average, and their instantaneous values are correlated positively, but not strongly so, and this occurs due to the different physical mechanisms that govern these fluxes. Moreover, the contributions to these fluxes arising from the sub-grid fields are shown to be significant, in addition to the filtered scale contributions associated with the processes of strain self-amplification, vortex stretching and density gradient amplification. Probability density functions (PDFs) of the $Q,R$ invariants of the filtered velocity gradient are considered and show that as $\ell$ increases, the sheared-drop shape of the PDF becomes less pronounced and the PDF becomes more symmetric about $R=0$ .
Multifidelity Neural Network Formulations for Prediction of Reactive Molecular Potential Energy Surfaces
Here, this paper focuses on the development of multifidelity modeling approaches using neural network surrogates, where training data arising from multiple model forms and resolutions are integrated to predict high-fidelity response quantities of interest at lower cost. We focus on the context of quantum chemistry and the integration of information from multiple levels of theory. Important foundations include the use of symmetry function-based atomic energy vector constructions as feature vectors for representing structures across families of molecules and single-fidelity neural network training capabilities that learn the relationships needed to map feature vectors to potential energy predictions. These foundations are embedded within several multifidelity topologies that decompose the high-fidelity mapping into model-based components, including sequential formulations that admit a general nonlinear mapping across fidelities and discrepancy-based formulations that presume an additive decomposition. Methodologies are first explored and demonstrated on a pair of simple analytical test problems and then deployed for potential energy prediction for C 5 H 5 using B2PLYP-D3/6-311++G(d,p) for high-fidelity simulation data and Hartree–Fock 6-31G for low-fidelity data. For the common case of limited access to high-fidelity data, our computational results demonstrate that multifidelity neural network potential energy surface constructions achieve roughly an order of magnitude improvement, either in terms of test error reduction for equivalent total simulation cost or reduction in total cost for equivalent error.