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Results for “posterior consistency”

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DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmology from cosmic shear and robustness to data calibration

This work, together with its companion paper, Secco, Samuroff et al., presents the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints based on an analysis of over 100 million source galaxies. With the data spanning 4143 deg 2 on the sky, divided into four redshift bins, we produce the highest significance measurement of cosmic shear to date, with a signal-to-noise of 40. We conduct a blind analysis in the context of the ΛCDM model and find a 3% constraint of the clustering amplitude, S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 = 0.759$^{+0.025}_{-0.023}$. A ΛCDM-Optimized analysis, which safely includes smaller scale information, yields a 2% precision measurement of S 8 = 0.772$^{+0.018}_{-0.017}$ that is consistent with the fiducial case. The two low-redshift measurements are statistically consistent with the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background result, however, both recovered S 8 values are lower than the high-redshift prediction by 2.3σ and 2.1σ (ρ-values of 0.02 and 0.05), respectively. The measurements are shown to be internally consistent across redshift bins, angular scales and correlation functions. The analysis is demonstrated to be robust to calibration systematics, with the S 8 posterior consistent when varying the choice of redshift calibration sample, the modeling of redshift uncertainty and methodology. Similarly, we find that the corrections included to account for the blending of galaxies shifts our best-fit S 8 by 0.5σ without incurring a substantial increase in uncertainty. We examine the limiting factors for the precision of the cosmological constraints and find observational systematics to be subdominant to the modeling of astrophysics. Specifically, we identify the uncertainties in modeling baryonic effects and intrinsic alignments as the limiting systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hierarchical Inference with Bayesian Neural Networks: An Application to Strong Gravitational Lensing

In the past few years, approximate Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have demonstrated the ability to produce statistically consistent posteriors on a wide range of inference problems at unprecedented speed and scale. However, any disconnect between training sets and the distribution of real-world objects can introduce bias when BNNs are applied to data. This is a common challenge in astrophysics and cosmology, where the unknown distribution of objects in our universe is often the science goal. In this work, we incorporate BNNs with flexible posterior parameterizations into a hierarchical inference framework that allows for the reconstruction of population hyperparameters and removes the bias introduced by the training distribution. We focus on the challenge of producing posterior PDFs for strong gravitational lens mass model parameters given Hubble Space Telescope–quality single-filter, lens-subtracted, synthetic imaging data. We show that the posterior PDFs are sufficiently accurate (statistically consistent with the truth) across a wide variety of power-law elliptical lens mass distributions. We then apply our approach to test data sets whose lens parameters are drawn from distributions that are drastically different from the training set. We show that our hierarchical inference framework mitigates the bias introduced by an unrepresentative training set's interim prior. Simultaneously, we can precisely reconstruct the population hyperparameters governing our test distributions. Our full pipeline, from training to hierarchical inference on thousands of lenses, can be run in a day. The framework presented here will allow us to efficiently exploit the full constraining power of future ground- and space-based surveys (https://github.com/swagnercarena/ovejero).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cosmology from cross-correlation of ACT-DR4 CMB lensing and DES-Y3 cosmic shear

Cross-correlation between weak lensing of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and weak lensing of galaxies offers a way to place robust constraints on cosmological and astrophysical parameters with reduced sensitivity to certain systematic effects affecting individual surveys. We measure the angular cross-power spectrum between the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) DR4 CMB lensing and the galaxy weak lensing measured by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y3 data. Our baseline analysis uses the CMB convergence map derived from ACT-DR4 and Planck data, where most of the contamination due to the thermal Sunyaev Zel’dovich effect is removed, thus avoiding important systematics in the cross-correlation. In our modelling, we consider the nuisance parameters of the photometric uncertainty, multiplicative shear bias and intrinsic alignment of galaxies. The resulting cross-power spectrum has a signal-to-noise ratio = 7.1 and passes a set of null tests. We use it to infer the amplitude of the fluctuations in the matter distribution (S_8 ≡ σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^0.5 = 0.782 ± 0.059) with informative but well-motivated priors on the nuisance parameters. We also investigate the validity of these priors by significantly relaxing them and checking the consistency of the resulting posteriors, finding them consistent, albeit only with relatively weak constraints. This cross-correlation measurement will improve significantly with the new ACT-DR6 lensing map and form a key component of the joint 6×2pt analysis between DES and ACT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spike-and-Slab Shrinkage Priors for Structurally Sparse Bayesian Neural Networks

Network complexity and computational efficiency have become increasingly significant aspects of deep learning. Sparse deep learning addresses these challenges by recovering a sparse representation of the underlying target function by reducing heavily overparameterized deep neural networks. Specifically, deep neural architectures compressed via structured sparsity (e.g., node sparsity) provide low-latency inference, higher data throughput, and reduced energy consumption. In this article, we explore two well-established shrinkage techniques, Lasso and Horseshoe, for model compression in Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). To this end, we propose structurally sparse BNNs, which systematically prune excessive nodes with the following: 1) spike-and-slab group Lasso (SS-GL) and 2) SS group Horseshoe (SS-GHS) priors, and develop computationally tractable variational inference, including continuous relaxation of Bernoulli variables. We establish the contraction rates of the variational posterior of our proposed models as a function of the network topology, layerwise node cardinalities, and bounds on the network weights. Furthermore, we empirically demonstrate the competitive performance of our models compared with the baseline models in prediction accuracy, model compression, and inference latency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic Inference of Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxy Morphological Parameters Using Simulation-Based Inference

Low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) are diffuse, often dark-matter-dominated systems whose faintness makes their structural parameters difficult to measure reliably in wide-field imaging surveys. Robust parameter inference, including uncertainty quantification, is important for population studies and for comparisons with models of galaxy formation, as future surveys are expected to produce increasingly large samples of diffuse galaxies. In practice, LSBG profile modeling is sensitive to sky- background errors, masking choices, contaminating background sources, and the computational cost of obtaining posterior-level uncertainties for large samples. Motivated by these questions, we develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for estimating posterior distributions of LSBG morphological parameters from simulated galaxy images. Using PyImfit, we generate DES-like single-Sersic profile LSBG images with known position angle, ellipticity, Sersic index, effective surface brightness, and effective radius. We then train a normalizing-flow-based neural posterior estimator using the sbi package to infer these parameters from the simulated images. For isolated simulated galaxies, the SBI posterior recovers the true input parameters, produces posterior predictive residuals consistent with the assumed noise model, and shows good empirical calibration in a DES-motivated test regime. We also compare SBI with PyImfit-based MCMC inference and find broadly comparable posterior constraints, while SBI enables substantially faster posterior sampling after training. Finally, we test robustness to compact background contaminants. A model trained only on isolated galaxies produces undercovered posteriors on contaminated images, whereas training on simulations with variable contaminant positions and fluxes improves calibration across contaminated test sets. These results demonstrate the promise of SBI for scalable, uncertainty-aware LSBG morphology inference, while emphasizing that posterior reliability strongly depends on whether training simulations include relevant observational complications.

Batbayar, Bilguun [U. Chicago (main)]↗

NASA NTRS2019

SO2 Emission Estimates Using OMI SO2 Retrievals for 2005-2017

SO2 column densities from OMI provide important information on emission trends and missing sources, but there are discrepancies between different retrieval products. We employ three OMI SO2 retrieval products (NASA standard (SP), NASA prototype, and BIRA) to study the magnitude and trend of SO2 emissions. SO2 column densities from these retrievals are most consistent when viewing angles and solar zenith angles are small, suggesting more robust emission estimates in summer and at low latitudes. We then apply a hybrid 4DVar/mass balance emission inversion to derive monthly SO2 emissions from the NASA SP and BIRA products. Compared to HTAPv2 emissions in 2010, both posterior emission estimates are lower in US, India and Southeast China, but show different changes of emissions in North China Plain. The discrepancies between monthly NASA and BIRA posterior emissions in 2010 are less than or equal to 17% in China and 34% in India. SO2 emissions increase from 2005 to 2016 by 35% (NASA) 48% (BIRA) in India, but decrease in China by 23% (NASA) 33% (BIRA) since 2008. Compared to insitu measurements, the posterior GEOSChem surface SO2 concentrations have reduced NMB in China, the US, and India but not in South Korea in 2010. BIRA posteriors have better consistency with the annual growth rate of surface SO2 measurement in China and spatial variability of SO2 concentration in China, South Korea and India, whereas NASA SP posteriors have better seasonality. These evaluations demonstrate the capability to recover SO2 emissions using OMI observations.

Data assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dark energy survey internal consistency tests of the joint cosmological probes analysis with posterior predictive distributions

Beyond ΛCDM, physics or systematic errors may cause subsets of a cosmological data set to appear inconsistent when analysed assuming ΛCDM. Here, we present an application of internal consistency tests to measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 (DES Y1) joint probes analysis. Our analysis relies on computing the posterior predictive distribution (PPD) for these data under the assumption of ΛCDM. We find that the DES Y1 data have an acceptable goodness of fit to ΛCDM, with a probability of finding a worse fit by random chance of p = 0.046. Using numerical PPD tests, supplemented by graphical checks, we show that most of the data vector appears completely consistent with expectations, although we observe a small tension between large- and small-scale measurements. A small part (roughly 1.5 per cent) of the data vector shows an unusually large departure from expectations; excluding this part of the data has negligible impact on cosmological constraints, but does significantly improve the p-value to 0.10. The methodology developed here will be applied to test the consistency of DES Year 3 joint probes data sets.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Early dark sector, the Hubble tension, and the swampland

We consider the interplay of the Early Dark Energy (EDE) model, the Swampland Distance Conjecture (SDC), and cosmological parameter tensions. EDE is a proposed resolution of the Hubble tension relying upon a near-Planckian scalar field excursion, while the SDC predicts an exponential sensitivity of masses of other fields to such an excursion, m ∝ e –c |ΔΦ|/Mpl with c ~ 0(1). Meanwhile, EDE is in tension with large-scale structure (LSS) data, due to shifts in the standard ΛCDM parameters necessary to fit the cosmic microwave background (CMB). One might hope that a proper treatment of the model, e.g., accounting for the SDC, may ameliorate the tension with LSS. Motivated by these considerations, we introduce the Early Dark Sector (EDS) model, wherein the mass of dark matter is exponentially sensitive to super-Planckian field excursions of the EDE scalar. The EDS model exhibits new phenomenology in both the early and late universe, the latter due to an EDE-mediated dark matter self-interaction. This dark matter-philic "fifth force", while constrained to be small, remains active in the late universe and is not screened in virialized halos. We find that the new interaction with dark matter partially resolves the LSS tension. However, the marginalized posteriors are nonetheless consistent with f EDE = 0 at 95% CL once the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 measurement of S 8 is included. We study constraints on the model from Atacama Cosmology Telescope data, and find a factor of two improvement on the error bar on the SDC parameter c, along with an increased preference for the EDE component. Here, we discuss the implications of these constraints for the SDC, and find the tightest observational constraints to date on a swampland parameter, suggesting that an EDE description of cosmological data is in tension with the SDC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2021

Constraining the Neutron Star Mass–Radius Relation and Dense Matter Equation of State with NICER. III. Model Description and Verification of Parameter Estimation Codes

We describe the X-ray pulse profile models we use and how we use them to analyze Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer(NICER)observations of rotation-powered millisecond pulsars to obtain information about the mass–radius relation of neutron stars and the equation of state of the dense matter in their cores. Here we detail our modeling of the observed profile of PSR J0030+0451 that we analyzed in Miller et al. and Riley et al. and describe a cross-verification of computations of the pulse profiles of a star with R/M 3, in case stars this compact need to be considered in future analyses. We also present our early cross-verification efforts of the parameter estimation procedures used by Miller et al. and Riley et al. by analyzing two distinct synthetic data sets. Both codes yielded credible regions in the mass–radius plane that are statistically consistent with one another, and both gave posterior distributions for model parameter values consistent with the values that were used to generate the data. We also summarize the additional tests of the parameter estimation procedure of Miller et al. that used synthetic pulse profiles and the NICER pulse profile of PSR J0030+0451. We then illustrate how the precision of mass and radius estimates depends on the pulsar’s spin rate and the size of its hot spot by analyzing four different synthetic pulse profiles. Finally, we assess possible sources of systematic error in the estimates made using this technique, some of which may warrant further investigation.

Slavko Bogdanov↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark energy survey year 3 results: Cosmological constraints from cluster abundances, weak lensing, and galaxy clustering

Galaxy clusters provide a unique probe of the late-time cosmic structure and serve as a powerful independent test of the Λ⁢CDM model. This work presents the first set of cosmological constraints derived with ∼16,000 optically selected redMaPPer clusters across nearly 5000 deg 2 using DES year 3 datasets. Our analysis leverages a consistent modeling framework for galaxy cluster cosmology and DES-Y3 joint analyses of galaxy clustering and weak lensing (3 × 2⁢pt), ensuring direct comparability with the DES-Y3 3 × 2⁢pt analysis. Here, we obtain constraints of 𝑆 8 = 0.864 ± 0.035 and Ω m = $0.26⁢5^{+0.019}_{−0.031}$ from the cluster-based data vector. We find that cluster constraints and 3 × 2⁢pt constraints are consistent under the Λ⁢CDM model with a posterior predictive distribution (PPD) value of 0.53. The consistency between clusters and 3 × 2⁢pt provides a stringent test of Λ⁢CDM across different mass and spatial scales. Jointly analyzing clusters with 3 × 2⁢pt further improves cosmological constraints, yielding 𝑆 8 = $0.81⁢1^{+0.022}_{−0.020}$ and Ω m = $0.29⁢4^{+0.022}_{−0.033}$, a 24% improvement in the Ω m − 𝑆 8 figure of merit over 3 × 2⁢pt alone. Moreover, we find no significant deviation from the Planck CMB constraints with a probability to exceed (PTE) value of 0.6, significantly reducing previous 𝑆 8 tension claims. Finally, combining DES 3 × 2⁢pt, DES clusters, and Planck CMB places an upper limit on the sum of neutrino masses of ∑𝑚 𝜈 < 0.26 eV at 95% confidence under the Λ⁢CDM model. These results establish optically selected clusters as a key cosmological probe and pave the way for cluster-based analyses in upcoming stage-IV surveys such as LSST, Euclid, and Roman.

Abbott, T. M. C. [NSF’s National Optical-Infrared ↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Dark Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant with the LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Event GW190412 and DESI Galaxies

Abstract We present a measurement of the Hubble Constant H 0 using the gravitational wave event GW190412, an asymmetric binary black hole merger detected by LIGO/Virgo, as a dark standard siren. This event does not have an electromagnetic counterpart, so we use the statistical standard siren method and marginalize over potential host galaxies from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey. GW190412 is well-localized to 12 deg 2 (90% credible interval), so it is promising for a dark siren analysis. The dark siren value for H 0 = 85.4 − 33.9 + 29.1 km s −1 Mpc −1 , with a posterior shape that is consistent with redshift overdensities. When combined with the bright standard siren measurement from GW170817 we recover H 0 = 77.96 − 5.03 + 23.0 km s −1 Mpc −1 , consistent with both early and late-time Universe measurements of H 0 . This work represents the first standard siren analysis performed with DESI data, and includes the most complete spectroscopic sample used in a dark siren analysis to date.

Ballard, W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Cosmological Constraints from Cluster Abundances, Weak Lensing, and Galaxy Clustering

Galaxy clusters provide a unique probe of the late-time cosmic structure and serve as a powerful independent test of the $\Lambda$CDM model. This work presents the first set of cosmological constraints derived with ~16,000 optically selected redMaPPer clusters across nearly 5,000 $\rm{deg}^2$ using DES Year 3 data sets. Our analysis leverages a consistent modeling framework for galaxy cluster cosmology and DES-Y3 joint analyses of galaxy clustering and weak lensing (3x2pt), ensuring direct comparability with the DES-Y3 3x2pt analysis. We obtain constraints of $S_8 = 0.864 \pm 0.035$ and $\Omega_{\rm{m}} = 0.265^{+0.019}_{-0.031}$ from the cluster-based data vector. We find that cluster constraints and 3x2pt constraints are consistent under the $\Lambda$CDM model with a Posterior Predictive Distribution (PPD) value of $0.53$. The consistency between clusters and 3x2pt provides a stringent test of $\Lambda$CDM across different mass and spatial scales. Jointly analyzing clusters with 3x2pt further improves cosmological constraints, yielding $S_8 = 0.811^{+0.022}_{-0.020}$ and $\Omega_{\rm{m}} = 0.294^{+0.022}_{-0.033}$, a $24\%$ improvement in the $\Omega_{\rm{m}}-S_8$ figure-of-merit over 3x2pt alone. Moreover, we find no significant deviation from the Planck CMB constraints with a probability to exceed (PTE) value of $0.6$, significantly reducing previous $S_8$ tension claims. Finally, combining DES 3x2pt, DES clusters, and Planck CMB places an upper limit on the sum of neutrino masses of $\sum m_\nu < 0.26$ eV at 95% confidence under the $\Lambda$CDM model. These results establish optically selected clusters as a key cosmological probe and pave the way for cluster-based analyses in upcoming Stage-IV surveys such as LSST, Euclid, and Roman.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

BOSS DR12 full-shape cosmology: Λ CDM constraints from the large-scale galaxy power spectrum and bispectrum monopole

Here, we present a full Λ CDM analysis of the BOSS DR12 dataset, including information from the power spectrum multipoles, the real-space power spectrum, the reconstructed power spectrum and the bispectrum monopole. This is the first analysis to feature a complete treatment of the galaxy bispectrum, including a consistent theoretical model and without large-scale cuts. Unlike previous works, the statistics are measured using window-free estimators: this greatly reduces computational costs by removing the need to window-convolve the theory model. Our pipeline is tested using a suite of high-resolution mocks and shown to be robust and precise, with systematic errors far below the statistical thresholds. Inclusion of the bispectrum yields consistent parameter constraints and shrinks the σ 8 posterior by 13% to reach < 5 % precision; less conservative analysis choices would reduce the error bars further. Our constraints are broadly consistent with Planck: in particular, we find H 0 = 69.6$^{+1.1}_{–1.3}$ km s –1 Mpc –1 , σ 8 = 0.692$^{+0.035}_{–0.041}$ and n s = 0.870$^{+0.067}_{–0.064}$, including a BBN prior on the baryon density. When n s is set by Planck, we find H 0 = 68.31$^{+0.83}_{–0.86}$ km s –1 Mpc –1 and σ 8 = 0.722$^{+0.032}_{–0.036}$. Our S 8 posterior, 0.751 ± 0.039, is consistent with weak lensing studies, but lower than Planck. Constraints on the higher-order bias parameters are significantly strengthened from the inclusion of the bispectrum, and we find no evidence for deviation from the dark matter halo bias relations. These results represent the most complete full-shape analysis of BOSS DR12 to-date, and the corresponding spectra will enable a variety of beyond-Λ CDM analyses, probing phenomena such as the neutrino mass and primordial non-Gaussianity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mixed warm dark matter constraints using Milky Way satellite galaxy counts

Warm dark matter has been strongly constrained in recent years as the sole component of dark matter. However, a less-explored alternative is that dark matter consists of a mixture of warm and cold dark matter (MWDM). In this work, we use observations of Milky Way satellite galaxies to constrain MWDM scenarios where the formation of small-scale structure is suppressed either by generic thermal relic warm dark matter or a sterile neutrino produced through the Shi-Fuller mechanism. To achieve this, we model satellite galaxies by combining numerical simulations with semianalytical models for the subhalo population, and use a galaxy-halo connection model to match galaxies onto dark matter subhalos. By comparing the number of satellites predicted by MWDM models to the observed satellite population from the Dark Energy Survey and Pan-STARRS1, we constrain the fraction of warm dark matter, f WDM , as a function of its mass, m WDM . We exclude dark matter being composed entirely of thermal relic warm dark matter with m WDM ≤ 6.6 keV at a posterior ratio of 10 ∶ 1 , consistent with previous works. However, we find that warm dark matter with smaller mass is allowed when mixed with cold dark matter, and that the f WDM constraints strengthen with decreasing m WDM until they plateau at f WDM ≲ 0.45 for m WDM ≲ 1.5 keV . Likewise, in the case of a sterile neutrino with mass of 7 keV produced through the Shi-Fuller mechanism, we exclude a fraction of f ν s ≲ 0.45 , independent of mixing angle. Our results extend constraints on MWDM to a region of parameter space that has been relatively unconstrained with previous analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1984

The Structure of the Mammalian Area Postrema

The area postrema in mammals other than rodents and lagomorphs is a bilateral mound of gelatinous-appearing tissue that protrudes into the caudal fourth ventricle on either side of the obex. In rodents and lagomorphs it is a single midline structure at the apex of the calamus scriptorius. The vasculature is derived mainly from the posterior inferior cerebellar arteries and consists mainly of sinusoidal capillaries. It appears to constitute a portal system, at least in the rat. Many of the capillaries are fenestrated, and many large perivascular spaces with both vascular and parenchymal basal laminae are present. The cell population is composed of flattened ependymal cells exhibiting microvilli, and of small neurons, normal astrocytes, glialoid cells, and a very few oligodendroglia. Mast cells are occasionally present. The glialoid cells appear to be the predominant cell type and exhibit great numbers of vascular podia. Axodendritic synapses are numerous and axosomatic synapses are occasionally seen in the parenchyma. Synaptic vesicles are mainly of the clear-cored type but large dense-cored vesicles are commonly observed in some axon terminals.

Brizzee, K. R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Projective Integral Updates for High-Dimensional Variational Inference

Variational inference is an approximation framework for Bayesian inference that seeks to improve quantified uncertainty in predictions by optimizing a simplified distribution over parameters to stand in for the full posterior. Capturing model variations that remain consistent with training data enables more robust predictions by reducing parameter sensitivity. This work introduces a fixed-point optimization for variational inference that is applicable when every feasible log density can be expressed as a linear combination of functions from a given basis. In such cases, the optimizer becomes a fixed-point of projective integral updates. When the basis spans univariate quadratics in each parameter, the feasible distributions are Gaussian mean-fields and the projective integral updates yield quasi-Newton variational Bayes (QNVB). Other bases and updates are also possible. Since these updates require high-dimensional integration, this work begins by proposing an efficient quasirandom sequence of quadratures for mean-field distributions. Each iterate of the sequence contains two evaluation points that combine to correctly integrate all univariate quadratic functions and, if the mean-field factors are symmetric, all univariate cubics. More importantly, averaging results over short subsequences achieves periodic exactness on a much larger space of multivariate polynomials of quadratic total degree. The corresponding variational updates require four loss evaluations with standard (not second-order) backpropagation to eliminate error terms from over half of all multivariate quadratic basis functions. Furthermore, this integration technique is motivated by first proposing stochastic blocked mean-field quadratures, which may be useful in other contexts. A PyTorch implementation of QNVB allows for better control over model uncertainty during training than competing methods. Experiments demonstrate superior generalizability for multiple learning problems and architectures.

Gaussian mean-field↗

NASA NTRS2004

Bayesian Approach to the Joint Inversion of Gravity and Magnetic Data, with Application to the Ismenius Area of Mars

This viewgraph presentation reviews a Bayesian approach to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data with specific application to the Ismenius Area of Mars. Many inverse problems encountered in geophysics and planetary science are well known to be non-unique (i.e. inversion of gravity the density structure of a body). In hopes of reducing the non-uniqueness of solutions, there has been interest in the joint analysis of data. An example is the joint inversion of gravity and magnetic data, with the assumption that the same physical anomalies generate both the observed magnetic and gravitational anomalies. In this talk, we formulate the joint analysis of different types of data in a Bayesian framework and apply the formalism to the inference of the density and remanent magnetization structure for a local region in the Ismenius area of Mars. The Bayesian approach allows prior information or constraints in the solutions to be incorporated in the inversion, with the "best" solutions those whose forward predictions most closely match the data while remaining consistent with assumed constraints. The application of this framework to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data on Mars reveals two typical challenges - the forward predictions of the data have a linear dependence on some of the quantities of interest, and non-linear dependence on others (termed the "linear" and "non-linear" variables, respectively). For observations with Gaussian noise, a Bayesian approach to inversion for "linear" variables reduces to a linear filtering problem, with an explicitly computable "error" matrix. However, for models whose forward predictions have non-linear dependencies, inference is no longer given by such a simple linear problem, and moreover, the uncertainty in the solution is no longer completely specified by a computable "error matrix". It is therefore important to develop methods for sampling from the full Bayesian posterior to provide a complete and statistically consistent picture of model uncertainty, and what has been learned from observations. We will discuss advanced numerical techniques, including Monte Carlo Markov

data analysis↗

NASA NTRS2024

The CARMENES Search for Exoplanets Around M Dwarfs: Revisiting the GJ 581 Multi-Planetary System With New Doppler Measurements From CARMENES, HARPS, and HIRES

Context.GJ 581 is a nearby M dwarf known to host a packed multiple planet system composed of two super-Earths and a Neptune-mass planet. We present new orbital analyses of the GJ 581 system, utilizing recent radial velocity (RV) data obtained from the CARMENES spectrograph combined with newly reprocessed archival data from the HARPS and HIRES spectrographs. Aims.Our aim was to analyze the post-discovery spectroscopic data of GJ 581, which were obtained with CARMENES. In addition, we used publicly available HIRES and HARPS spectroscopic data to seek evidence of the known and disputed exoplanets in this system. We aimed to investigate the stellar activity of GJ 581 and update the planetary system’s orbital parameters using state-of-the-art numerical models and techniques. Methods.We performed a periodogram analysis of the available precise CARMENES, HIRES, and HARPS RVs and of stellar activity indicators. We conducted detailed orbital analyses by testing various orbital configurations consistent with the RV data. We studied the posterior probability distribution of the parameters fit to the data and we explored the long-term stability and overall orbital dynamics of the GJ 581 system. Results. We refined the orbital parameters of the GJ 581 system using the most precise and complete set of Doppler data available. Consistent with the existing literature, our analysis confirms that the system is unequivocally composed of only three planets detectable in the present data, dismissing the putative planet GJ 581 d as an artifact of stellar activity. Our N-body fit reveals that the system’s inclination is i=47.0+14.6−13.0deg, which implies that the planets could be up to 30% more massive than their previously reported minimum masses. Furthermore, we report that the GJ 581 system exhibits long-term stability, as indicated by the posterior probability distribution, characterized by secular dynamical interactions without the involvement of mean motion resonances.

Satellites↗